Fantasy Brothers

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Fantasy Brothers

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:27 pm

No, this isn't a post about you guys. Even though we are all brothers in this hobby. And if you're reading this, it means you are a great player in the best contest in fantasy baseball. After all, if you're not a great player, why the Hell would you be in the NFBC?
And if you aren't a great player, well, you're no brother of mine!... :lol:

I was thinking how in no way, last year, would we consider the Contreras Brothers even close in comparison. Willson had already made his bones playing with the Cubs and drafted as a top five Catcher. William? Barely draftable in DC's.
Fast forward a year and they are being taken together in drafts. In one DC, drafted consecutively. In another, Willson taken near the turn and William on the way back.
It's kinda cool. They are not only brothers in real life but fantasy also.

In fantasy, there are a lot of Bros.
At the same Catcher spot as the Contreras Bros, there is another pair of fantasy brothers.
Sal Perez and Adley Rutschman. Once one is picked, the other is sure to follow closely.
For the month of February in Draft Champions, Rutschman's ADP 69, Perez, 72.

At First Base, two brothers from the NL West are close.
CJ Cron and Christian Walker had great seasons last year. This combo is almost always drafted close together.
Cron has park effect on his side. Walker, age and health.
Unsurprisingly, the ADP for Walker and Cron is 135 and 136.

Second Base is kinda weird. These players are nothing alike. Except bad health last year.
Brandon Lowe and Jonathan India were brutal to their owners last year.
But this is a new season and both of them are being drafted mostly in the 12th round this year.
I think it's too high for both of them, but what do I know.
ADP for Lowe is 173 and for India, 175

Third Base is easy. Everybody knows. Devers and Riley. Riley and Devers. Both have been taken very close together somewhere in the top half of round two. And they should be. Third Base is a tough nut this year. These two fantasy bros. crack that nut.
Riley 20, Devers 22.

The next pairing of bros. at Shortstop is hilarious. They are brothers from another mother.
First, we have Tommy Edman. Edman is a diminutive player, mostly drafted for his speed. He has positionality at second base and will score a goodly amount of runs while maintaining a good average as well. A little boring. A pick that doesn't make you puff out your chest.
Then, we have Oneil Cruz. Cruz is a beast. He could lead the league in Home Runs and Stolen Bases if staying healthy for 160 games.
Really, he could, that's the type of ceiling this kid has. If Edman and Cruz were in a bar, Cruz would have girls hanging off him while Edman sits at a table drinking a beer alone.
Yet here, they look alike, Cruz ADP is 71, Edman's 73.

Outfield spots bring out how last year means little.
Aaron Judge was everything last year. He set a new home run record (screw you, Bonds) and was an everyday must-see tv for baseball fans.
No player has had a season like Judge since the steroid era.
Yet, it's new year and Judge's year last year doesn't even rate him a number one pick in most drafts.
In fact, he is being drafted alongside a player who has played in less games than Judge has home runs.
Julio Rodriguez.
Oneil Cruz has the tools to be a monster, yes, but Julio Rodriguez is fully ready to display those skills.
Even at the beginning of the season when Julio wasn't hitting, he was stealing bases.
Then, then he started hitting. The man can mash. And we know Judge will too. They make baseball fun.
ADP is Judge 4, Julio 5.

Starting Pitcher is Cole and Burnes. These two go one and two as starters in almost every draft. If we had twin brothers, it would be these two.
ADP...Burnes 14, Cole 17

And like Cole and Burnes, Closer has the same 1-2 punch. Edwin Diaz and Emmanuel Clase are inseparable.
I don't think I have seen any two players picked in consecutive picks more than Diaz and Clase this year.
A funny thing has happened over the course of time during the draft season however.
Both have dropped in ADP.
Both were going near the top of the second round. now, it is the middle or even the end of the second round.
Will that change for large drafts in March? Should be interesting.
Diaz 23, Clase 27.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Thurman15
Posts: 158
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:27 pm

Re: Fantasy Brothers

Post by Thurman15 » Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:29 am

Very interesting Dan and very true. What I'm going to comment on is my personal opinion on the "brothers" that should NOT be of the same value. Yes they are always drafted close but they should not. First off Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes I agree. Very close and I get it. Contreras brothers I agree. William sure caught up to Wilson in a hurry.

Adley Rutschman drives me nuts. I've been in a dozen pools so far, both drafts & auctions and I have tried to get him every single time. I have never succeeded. He goes too high. He had a real solid rookie season but look at the numbers. And look at your hated projections. They just don't match up with his high draft position. So I wish I knew why I refuse to pay for a guy I really like.

2nd base I have no desire to obtain either of Brandon Lowe or Jonathan India. Both too high. Both too risky.

Closers No bloody way am I paying the price for Ed Diaz or Clase. They are elite but I can guess on 4 closers that are dirt cheap and be right on 2 of them. I study potential closers ad nauseum.

Aaron Judge vs Julio Rodriguez is not close for me. I am a huge Yankee fan and a huge Aaron Judge fan. I have my "All Rise" shirt ready to go again this year. But while The Judge may even win MVP again common sense tells me 40-45 Home Runs and a .275 batting average. Being a Gold Glover does not help in fantasy. And most hitters that are as powerful as Judge stop running so I can expect 35 steals from Julio and maybe 10 for Judge. Julio has not hit his peak while Aaron Judge has.

Finally a comment on the smart drafters in the NFBC. Bryan Reynolds (hugely overrated) goes in an appropriate spot. Our drafters are not fooled by Pirates owner Bob Nothing. Bozo Bob thinks he can get 2 elite prospects plus a decent starter for a good but nowhere near elite Bryan Reynolds. 27 Home runs with 62 RBI and a few steals with a .262 average. Most of the projection systems see him hitting LESS home runs. I know....I know...projections. My point is NFBC drafters know the real value of Bryan Reynolds. Bob Nuthead does not. Very interesting post Dan. Just wanted to give my thoughts on it.
Rogers Hornsby, Hall of Famer with the Cardinals was once asked " You love Baseball Rogers, but what do you do in the winter ? " His response......"I stare out the window and wait for spring "

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13088
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Fantasy Brothers

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:42 pm

It's funny, Al, I make some some questions up for friends to answer. And also answer them myself.
One of the questions is....
Annually, about 50 percent of first rounders fall from the first round the following year, which players will fall this year to another round in 2024?
One of my answers was Julio Rodriguez.

Another question is what player has the greatest chance to be the number one pick in 2024?
And again, my answer is Julio Rodriguez.

What does that mean?
It means I have no idea what kind of year Julio Rodriguez will have. .... :lol:
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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