Draft Thoughts

[DOUGHBOYS]

During drafting season, we see players in another light. We look at our favorite yearly stats. We visualize how they've looked over the past year and longer. We rank them accordingly.
Let's talk about a few of those players.

Ke'Bryan Hayes....
My friend thinks he is getting a 'jump' on his competition by having speed at a corner. A place where speed is hard to find.
And to his credit, Hayes does have five stolen bases this year.
But as I tell my friend then and now, is it worth it?
Hayes has this for his five categories....242/20/1/9/5
His five stolen bases were what was coveted and even expected.
His 20 Runs are the result of him hitting at or near the top of what has been a surprisingly good Pirates offense.
As of now, he is a two category player while being a drag on the other three categories.
No thanks.
What surprises me during draft season is how Hayes is perceived. Constantly, writers and touts suggest that more power is coming.
Why?
Hayes has never hit more than 10 home runs in a season in his pro career.
And that career is nine years.
In slo-pitch softball, Hayes would be labeled a 'popcorn hitter'. When most popcorn pops, the kernels hardly ever go a great distance.
Every once in awile, that kernel or ball in Hayes case, will go a great distance but most do not.
At most, Hayes is a two category player. A lot more valuable (for some reason) during drafting season than in our starting lineup.

Jose Abreu...
I thought Jose Abreu might be a good pick during drafting season.
Going away from a troubled team with horrific management. Going to a team with a winning attitude and terrific lineup.
You know what is wrong with those last two sentences?
Neither address Jose Abreu, the hitter.
I watched Abreu over the weekend.
Oh boy.
Abreu was an old 35 last year.
Sometimes a hitter finds more 'juice' in a different situation. Not this time.
At 36, Abreu looks 46.
His swing has slowed. Fastballs at 93 mph are overpowering him.
Sure, he may be able to eke out a Ke'Bryanish 10 homers, but it ain't going to be pretty.
The Astros have to know this by now.
They should put him near the bottom of the order and hope for the best from their investment of THREE YEARS, 58 MILLION DOLLARS.
I'm guessing Abreu will be DFA'd halfway through that contract.
Shame on me for not paying more attention to the player rather than his circumstances.
Next year, think Joey Votto in terms of drafting Abreu.

Adley Rutschman...
I had some friends that believed Rutschman was going too high in drafts. I don't blame them.
I remember the last Baltimore catching sensation. Matt Wieters.
He was selected too highly in most years that he played.
He was a switch hitter, like Rutschman, who also like Rutschman came with a lot of power and even more than power, the one ingredient in giving prospects helium.........hype.
But here, I was smarter than I was with Jose Abreu. I delved into Rutschman and liked what I saw.
I drafted him in many drafts.
The only drawback I found with Rutschman was his 'disability' (most call it an 'ability') to draw walks.
Rutschman has walked 28 times in 34 games.
Horrific for me. Lovely for Sabers. Sabers love their walks. Fantasy players, not so much.
An example....
Rutschman's .406 OBP is a Saber's wet dream. Ke'Bryan Hayes would be criticized by Saber's for a .300 OBP
But you know what?
In fantasy terms, Hayes .300 OBP is working out better for fantasy owners in the NFBC than Rutschman's .406 OBP.
For fantasy, OBP means more possible Runs. At least, that's the hope.
We want fast guys like Ke'Bryan to reach base so they can steal or score.
For Rutschman who doesn't run much, OBP only helps Runs.
Or does it?
Rutschman started out the season red hot. Pitchers started avoiding him a bit and he was only too glad to take his walks. A big UGH.
Has it helped his owners?
A big fat NO.
Hayes has a worse OBP by over 100 points and only one home run, with both hitting near the top of the order, you would think that Rutschman would be killing Hayes in Runs.
He's not.
Hayes has scored 20 Runs. Rutschman, 16.
Rutschman has 63 hits and BB. Hayes, 42.
That last stat would send saber's into orbit about Rutschman's worth.
For me, it's rotten.
It means that the pitchers are beating Rutschman and the Orioles. He is scoring one of every four times he reaches base. This includes his four homers where he HAS to score!
And you know what's worse?
Of those 28 BB, he has come around to score on them just five times. 18 per cent of the time!
Rutschman's .406 OBP is very pleasing to two groups.

1. Sabermetrics folks who never look beyond OBP

2. Opposing Pitchers.

For me, I like what I see when Rutschman swings, but if he continues taking walks at this rate, the high ADP that came with drafting Rutschman this year will not be worth the same cost to me next year.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let me just add one more thing since I'm watching Ke'Bryan Hayes play right now....
I get criticized for criticizing players taking base on balls. That's ok with me. I'm a fantasy player. I know how walks hurt offensive teams and are relished by the press and sabermetric folks.
Watching Hayes tonight, he was caught stealing. Again, scribes and saber's hate CS. I relish them.
I would rather have a guy like Hayes CS four times than zero times.
It illustrates to me that the player WANTS to steal. For fantasy, that is more than half the battle.
Trea Turner could steal 70 bases a year. He doesn't WANT to. Instead, he picks his spots and will have a better percentage than a guy like Hayes.
Over the last two years, Hayes has stolen 25 bases and been caught nine times.Turner has stolen 31 bases and been caught three times.
Imagine that! Both have 34 attempts. Turner should have a lot more, but has no inkling to do so.
For fantasy purposes, I would much rather have a player like Hayes on the bases. He doesn't have Turner's speed or aplomb in base running, but unlike Turner, he has OUR best interests at heart.
I'd gladly accept some CS from a guy wanting to help us than a player trying to help his own baseball team more than my fantasy team!