Las Vegas League 3

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 8:27 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:I called it after the draft. You just weren't there. You were too busy copying everyone's drafts for your Ultimate League. Hmm...and KJ also revealed he was sneaking a peak at my other draft and planned to take Tulo out from under me (read: Tulo's poor start=karma). Now, now, John, correct me if I'm wrong here but didn't you tell me no one ever does this, every draft is different, yada, yada? [/QUOTE]I said no one should be doing this from a draft two months ago. Each draft is so different. I'm sure it will always be done. And it will always be bad strategy.

Agree on the karma thing.

To each his own, but it's a TOTAL waste of time IMO.

The goal is to get the best balanced team as you say, not beat someone to a pick.

This follows the theme of my Weeks posts. A few reach picks is fine, but when 70% of your Top 20 picks are to hit a HR and/or draft them so high and leave little room for value, the odds of having a troubled season amplify. JMO from analyzing all those snake drafts over the years.

After the draft, I thought you got great value on D.Lee, A.Gonzalez, D.Haren picks, and reached to much on Burnett and Fukodome picks, but that you made those reached for the right reason, to FIT the team you were building and the projections you had for them.

One of the funniest moments for me draft weekend was doing the Super Draft right after the Main, and having the 6th pick again, and taking Holliday again, and KofQ (on the phone, drafting 7th) being so proud in his announcement that he was taking "Zaleski's Peavy" in Round 2 that I had selected just hours before in the Main Rd 2.

The funny thing is I wanted Berkman, C.Lee and Vlad in that order ahead of Peavy in the Main and Super. (and I have the pm's with Chest/RT to prove it)

How did he know so quickly being in NY?

I know the answer to that I don't even care. The whole thing was just funny to me.

Karma strikes again though, KofQ is in 14th.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 8:41 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I call it research, John - gotta keep workin' til the drafts are done. I don't have a problem with this at all. Some people do. I don't know why. It's still a waste of time IMO.

I certainly don't have this game down pat at all, but I know I'm headed in the right direction.

I looked back at all my high $$ drafts pre-NFBC, and my only bad years were from reaching too high on guys based on pre-draft speculation and hype.

My best years were from target drafting the team I wanted to build.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:07 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

... and you may be doing your victory dance before you get into the end zone Leon Lett.

Miggy is heating up. One more good week and he's passed your 1st round pick Holliday. Did you call Holliday's drop off too? You jabs are getting weaker and weaker by the day.

Drop off? or Injury? Surprised you'd say this being such an expert on the effect of injuries to your team

I have .316 35 8-29 8 from Holliday

Add .273 7 3-8 0 from Jenkins when Holliday was out for .310 42 11-37 8

You have .285 33 10-42 1 for Miggy.

Miggy and Holiiday will post similar, great numbers by the end. The difference will be the 15-20 SB that was easy to see before the draft.

I took Holliday at #6 for many reasons. main one being I thought value in Rds 3-6 for OF at MY #6 PICK was real bad.

I've only claimed no shame if I lose to this great group. I haven't once claimed where I'll finish, I just posted current facts.

My projections have the top six as the current top six, and the bottom four as the current bottom four. That's all they can do though. There are too many things that happen after the draft that no one has any control over to make claims. I'm just happy to be in the hunt. A long way to go.

[ June 16, 2008, 03:18 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:24 am

I said no one should be doing this from a draft two months ago. Each draft is so different. I'm sure it will always be done. And it will always be bad strategy.Well, I'd love to hear you say that it's bad form to tell everyone a guy someone picked before a draft considering it could alter things the way the Tulo pick may have this year. It's really beating a dead horse here and I'm not bitter and to tell you the truth, way back then, you're right, it was a draft not two months but less than a month before--but I'll give you that March happens in dog years--and I had no interest in Harden by draft day. But it was bad form, it was talking during someone's back swing, it was uncool.

Not to make a big thing out of it and please don't argue that I carry this around with me--that is ridiculous--but it came up that it does happen and there I've said my peace.

[ June 16, 2008, 03:27 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:33 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:I said no one should be doing this from a draft two months ago. Each draft is so different. I'm sure it will always be done. And it will always be bad strategy.Well, I'd love to hear you say that it's bad form to tell everyone a guy someone picked before a draft considering it could alter things the way the Tulo pick may have this year. It's really beating a dead horse here and I'm not bitter and to tell you the truth, way back then, you're right, it was a draft not two months but less than a month before--but I'll give you that March happens in dog years--and I had no interest in Harden by draft day. But it was bad form, it was talking during someone's back swing, it was uncool.

Not to make a big thing out of it and please don't argue that I carry this around with me--that is ridiculous--but it came up that it does happen and there I've said my peace. [/QUOTE]yea!! closure

I posted it as a joke because you'd make such a big deal about that issue.

Do you own the license on bad form?

Dinner on me next year

[ June 16, 2008, 03:34 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:37 am

It's still a waste of time IMO.I actually agree, believe it or not--not that it is okay for someone to announce picks before the draft, of curse, but definitely, I'd say some of my best picks have been picks on the fly that I never expected to take but was jammed into when all my plans went awry, Byrnes excepted of course.

BTW, I love Fukudome like an irrational Cubs fan!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:38 am

Do you own the license on bad form? I get your point, for sure, but I don't say stuff that affects anyone's game.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:46 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I call it research, John - gotta keep workin' til the drafts are done. I don't have a problem with this at all. Some people do. I don't know why. It's still a waste of time IMO.

I certainly don't have this game down pat at all, but I know I'm headed in the right direction.

I looked back at all my high $$ drafts pre-NFBC, and my only bad years were from reaching too high on guys based on pre-draft speculation and hype.

My best years were from target drafting the team I wanted to build. [/QUOTE]My research after the main event was simply to see who I may clash with in the auction over players I wanted.

The value could very well be minimal, but if I see a guy I think I can get cheap taken 3 rounds early by one of my opponents, I know I can't count on getting him cheap. I don't think there's anything wrong with it, Karma, etc, anyone who wants to spend the time to do it can. It's choosing to be diligent rather than lazy in my book.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:00 am

Originally posted by UFS:

Miggy and Holiiday will post similar, great numbers by the end. The difference will be the 15-20 SB that was easy to see before the draft.

I took Holliday at #6 for many reasons. main one being I thought value in Rds 3-6 for OF at MY #6 PICK was real bad.

Likewise, I felt there were a lot of disappointments waiting to happen at 3B this year, which is why I wanted a 3B in the first round.

Chipper injury risk. Zimmerman, Gordon overrated. Beltre, Kouz, Lowell, Mora blah. I think that is playing out about as expected. I also thought there were many quality late OFs, Willingham, M Bradley and McLouth who I got late, and a few others I missed on; this also is playing out as expected.

So while you like to try to point out my mistakes, I was in fact following a plan which from a plan standpoint I still feel was correct.

And while you are chiding me for a failed strategy, that same strategy has me in the Top 3 right now in 3 of my 5 NFBC mixed lges, in the top 15 overall in the Jungle contest and winning the private NFBC-style keeper lge that currently includes 3 of the top 10 overall in the NFBC.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:16 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I call it research, John - gotta keep workin' til the drafts are done. I don't have a problem with this at all. Some people do. I don't know why. It's still a waste of time IMO.

I certainly don't have this game down pat at all, but I know I'm headed in the right direction.

I looked back at all my high $$ drafts pre-NFBC, and my only bad years were from reaching too high on guys based on pre-draft speculation and hype.

My best years were from target drafting the team I wanted to build. [/QUOTE]My research after the main event was simply to see who I may clash with in the auction over players I wanted.

The value could very well be minimal, but if I see a guy I think I can get cheap taken 3 rounds early by one of my opponents, I know I can't count on getting him cheap. I don't think there's anything wrong with it, Karma, etc, anyone who wants to spend the time to do it can. It's choosing to be diligent rather than lazy in my book. [/QUOTE]Mm, I'll just say that if you are going out of your way to get specific data from satellites you are not in, and yes I know of various ways this can be done, I'd say you deserve whatever karma you get. I did it when the ADP reports weren't available to get an idea of ADP's--not to see who I had to beat to a punch. As John said, that is a good way to shoot yourself in the foot anyway. I put my own name on my satellite this year and if anyone wanted to horse around, I figured I'd just find another way, so I'm okay with it, but it still seems kind of shady.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:17 am

Originally posted by UFS:

Drop off? or Injury? Surprised you'd say this being such an expert on the effect of injuries to your team

I have .316 35 8-29 8 from Holliday

Add .273 7 3-8 0 from Jenkins when Holliday was out for .310 42 11-37 8

You have .285 33 10-42 1 for Miggy.

Miggy and Holiiday will post similar, great numbers by the end. The difference will be the 15-20 SB that was easy to see before the draft.

I took Holliday at #6 for many reasons. main one being I thought value in Rds 3-6 for OF at MY #6 PICK was real bad.

Miggy has avg'd 158 games played per season over the last 4 yrs, Holliday 139. Another reason I like Miggy, in addition to being a 3B rather than an OF where it easy to get quality late.

Holliday has avg'd 9 SBs over the last 4 seasons. He has 8 already this year. Not sure how/why you'd projet him to steal 20 this season, it does look possible now but I think it's a far-fetched statement to say that "it's easy to see before the draft he'd steal 15-20 more than Cabrera. I think you are again drinking from the hindsight cup. If not, I'd love to hear why you expected his SBs to accelerate - most sluggers steal less as they get older.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:22 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I call it research, John - gotta keep workin' til the drafts are done. I don't have a problem with this at all. Some people do. I don't know why. It's still a waste of time IMO.

I certainly don't have this game down pat at all, but I know I'm headed in the right direction.

I looked back at all my high $$ drafts pre-NFBC, and my only bad years were from reaching too high on guys based on pre-draft speculation and hype.

My best years were from target drafting the team I wanted to build. [/QUOTE]My research after the main event was simply to see who I may clash with in the auction over players I wanted.

The value could very well be minimal, but if I see a guy I think I can get cheap taken 3 rounds early by one of my opponents, I know I can't count on getting him cheap. I don't think there's anything wrong with it, Karma, etc, anyone who wants to spend the time to do it can. It's choosing to be diligent rather than lazy in my book. [/QUOTE]Mm, I'll just say that if you are going out of your way to get specific data from satellites you are not in, and yes I know of various ways this can be done, I'd say you deserve whatever karma you get. I did it when the ADP reports weren't available to get an idea of ADP's--not to see who I had to beat to a punch. As John said, that is a good way to shoot yourself in the foot anyway. I put my own name on my satellite this year and if anyone wanted to horse around, I figured I'd just find another way, so I'm okay with it, but it still seems kind of shady. [/QUOTE]I think we're talking about two different things since these were not satellites but draft boards, but in any case I don't see anything shady about paying attention to satellites. I draft in many as anyone, and my name is on all of them. I assume some of my competitors may have them, just as I may have some of theirs. Part of the game. I also don't see how I could possibly shoot myself in the foot by knowing who I may have to go toe-to-toe with in an auction over a certain player.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:29 am

Originally posted by UFS:

Miggy and Holiiday will post similar, great numbers by the end. The difference will be the 15-20 SB that was easy to see before the draft.

Holliday has NEVER stolen even 15 more than Miggy.

2007: +9

2006: +1

2005: +13

2004: -2

Average for Holliday, +5 SBs per season.

Meanwhile, Miggy has avg'd +6 more HRs over these 4 seasons, making the HR/SB a wash in value. Miggy is also +10 runs and +15 RBI, on average.

[ June 16, 2008, 04:30 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:30 am

However well you think of Cabrera, Holliday was better than him in 5 categories last year. His stolen bases I had for 12. He stole more in the second half last year. But you're losing value in that category with Cabrera. Those 8 SB's make a difference when they are subtracting from his other numbers. I don't see in what way Miguel looked superior to Holliday, though.

Beat me to the punch on Tulo=shot yourself in the foot.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:32 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Beat me to the punch on Tulo=shot yourself in the foot. Luck of the draw. Could've gone either way. Nine times out of ten I'm taking right there no matter.

[ June 16, 2008, 04:40 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:34 am

Meanwhile, Miggy has avg'd +6 more HRs over these 4 seasons, making the HR/SB a wash in value. Miggy is also +10 runs and +15 RBI, on average.

Man do you cherry-pick info to support crazy theories. Over the last two years, which are far more important than the previous two years, Holliday clearly had more power.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:36 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

However well you think of Cabrera, Holliday was better than him in 5 categories last year.

That was one season. Don't tell you base your projections on looking at one season.

I had them virtually even in projected value. I took him because he was a 3B and there was a lot of late value in OF. Combine one of my late OFs with Miggy, while combining Holliday with what was available late at 3B and most of the time you'd probably come up better combined value with Miggy even on your projected numbers.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:39 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Meanwhile, Miggy has avg'd +6 more HRs over these 4 seasons, making the HR/SB a wash in value. Miggy is also +10 runs and +15 RBI, on average.

Man do you cherry-pick info to support crazy theories. Over the last two years, which are far more important than the previous two years, Holliday clearly had more power. [/QUOTE]In '07 he had 2 more HRs in 48 more ABs.

In '06 he had 8 more, in '05 and '06 he had far less. Who's the cherry picker? Miggy is also 3 years younger and more likely IMO to be on an incline than Matt.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:42 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

However well you think of Cabrera, Holliday was better than him in 5 categories last year.

That was one season. Don't tell you base your projections on looking at one season.

I had them virtually even in projected value. I took him because he was a 3B and there was a lot of late value in OF. Combine one of my late OFs with Miggy, while combining Holliday with what was available late at 3B and most of the time you'd probably come up better combined value with Miggy even on your projected numbers. [/QUOTE]I count the last three years. For hitters, the fourth year is virtually irrelevant comparatively, unless you are short on data due to injuries, etc. But they are *weighted* three years. Three years ago is not nearly as important as last year.

The positional argument is fine. I'd just argue Holliday is better straight up.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:44 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Likewise, I felt there were a lot of disappointments waiting to happen at 3B this year, which is why I wanted a 3B in the first round.

Chipper injury risk. Zimmerman, Gordon overrated. Beltre, Kouz, Lowell, Mora blah. I think that is playing out about as expected. I also thought there were many quality late OFs, Willingham, M Bradley and McLouth who I got late, and a few others I missed on; this also is playing out as expected.

So while you like to try to point out my mistakes, I was in fact following a plan which from a plan standpoint I still feel was correct.

And while you are chiding me for a failed strategy, that same strategy has me in the Top 3 right now in 3 of my 5 NFBC mixed lges, in the top 15 overall in the Jungle contest and winning the private NFBC-style keeper lge that currently includes 3 of the top 10 overall in the NFBC. How does Mora get in there?

Beltre wasn't a huge target of mine, he was just a reaction to a need for HR and some SB at the time and the many picks I wanted there that had already gone and the rest I didn't like. I did take him one pick ahead of Zimm!

I didn't say it won't work. Just less likely. It's more feast or famine. You're more likely to have more holes to fill when you have injuries. It doesn't surprise me at all that it's working in other leagues, but I bet you don't have the same players/injuries as LV3.

I agree on the late OF'ers. I didn't want Josh to be my #1 OF with his risk.

Burrell, Fuki, Milldege, Willingham and a few others were guys I wanted that went a few picks or a round ahead of me. All nice picks which forced me to take a shot on Adam Jones. The most bland, do nothing hitter ever. I liked GA because he was fine the 2nd half of last year. I've always like DeJesus and nothing wrong with a potential .300/100runs/10sb there. Jenkins won me my only NFBC title and I liked him in that Philly lineup.

I really wanted my util spot to be K.Greene on the road, and best of Jenkins/Stairs matchup when he's at home, but injuries have prevented it.

I'll end this by saying I'd have ~15 more total W/WHIP/ERA points if I stuck to MY plan, instead of worrying/reacting about what YOU guys are trying to do and chase W's and K's too early this year. Reacting to what others do seems to always backfire IMO. When I read Shawn's stuff, I see him just focusing on what he needs to get it done.

I won FB last year by sticking to the plan, and am kicking myself now for not. Still time to fix it hopefully.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:46 am

You weigh age too heavily, esp. for players with an established level of performance and old player's skill sets.

[ June 16, 2008, 04:48 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:50 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

However well you think of Cabrera, Holliday was better than him in 5 categories last year.

That was one season. Don't tell you base your projections on looking at one season.

I had them virtually even in projected value. I took him because he was a 3B and there was a lot of late value in OF. Combine one of my late OFs with Miggy, while combining Holliday with what was available late at 3B and most of the time you'd probably come up better combined value with Miggy even on your projected numbers. [/QUOTE]I count the last three years. For hitters, the fourth year is virtually irrelevant comparatively, unless you are short on data due to injuries, etc. But they are *weighted* three years. Three years ago is not nearly as important as last year.

The positional argument is fine. I'd just argue Holliday is better straight up. [/QUOTE]For the record, I had Holliday with slightly more power and more steals, but slightly lower avg and runs scored (I liked the DET offense more than COL, and expected him to bat 3rd not 5th). They were virtiully even in value.

My preference was position along with his ability to stay on the field - he hadn't been on the DL in the past four season, and I'm not sure but I don't think he has ever been on the DL. That is worth something.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:51 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

You weigh age too heavily, esp. for players with an established level of performance and old player's skill sets. How do you know how much I value age?

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:54 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Meanwhile, Miggy has avg'd +6 more HRs over these 4 seasons, making the HR/SB a wash in value. Miggy is also +10 runs and +15 RBI, on average.

Man do you cherry-pick info to support crazy theories. Over the last two years, which are far more important than the previous two years, Holliday clearly had more power. [/QUOTE]In '07 he had 2 more HRs in 48 more ABs.

In '06 he had 8 more, in '05 and '06 he had far less. Who's the cherry picker? Miggy is also 3 years younger and more likely IMO to be on an incline than Matt. [/QUOTE]Paralysis of analysis I say. JMO.

Matt is 28. Age has no factor here.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Jun 16, 2008 10:56 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

You weigh age too heavily, esp. for players with an established level of performance and old player's skill sets. Damn, you beat to the punch again