Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by bjoak:
You weigh age too heavily, esp. for players with an established level of performance and old player's skill sets. How do you know how much I value age? [/QUOTE]Because you've argued it before. It seems apparent. Didn't you have Tulo down for 34 homers or something?
That was one season. Don't tell you base your projections on looking at one season. And yes, I would rather base my projections on one year than the last four equally weighted (and of course multiplied by 10 for every year under 26 the guy is ).
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Chance favors the prepared mind.
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Originally posted by UFS:
I didn't say it won't work. Just less likely. It's more feast or famine. You're more likely to have more holes to fill when you have injuries. It doesn't surprise me at all that it's working in other leagues, but I bet you don't have the same players/injuries as LV3.
I'm ok with feast or famine. I'll take a 1st and a 13th over a 3rd and a 4th. I'll also take being in the money 60% of the time.
As for players, there actually is a lot of overlap over my teams that are doing well and the two that are not. Tulo is on all but one. It really comes down to a couple of picks that are performing, or not. I have D Lee and Soto on most of my teams, and those two guys went earlier in the main than any other league, those are probably the biggest differences.
Originally posted by UFS:
I'll end this by saying I'd have ~15 more total W/WHIP/ERA points if I stuck to MY plan, instead of worrying/reacting about what YOU guys are trying to do and chase W's and K's too early this year. Reacting to what others do seems to always backfire IMO. When I read Shawn's stuff, I see him just focusing on what he needs to get it done.
I won FB last year by sticking to the plan, and am kicking myself now for not. Still time to fix it hopefully. No disagreement on that.
I didn't say it won't work. Just less likely. It's more feast or famine. You're more likely to have more holes to fill when you have injuries. It doesn't surprise me at all that it's working in other leagues, but I bet you don't have the same players/injuries as LV3.
I'm ok with feast or famine. I'll take a 1st and a 13th over a 3rd and a 4th. I'll also take being in the money 60% of the time.
As for players, there actually is a lot of overlap over my teams that are doing well and the two that are not. Tulo is on all but one. It really comes down to a couple of picks that are performing, or not. I have D Lee and Soto on most of my teams, and those two guys went earlier in the main than any other league, those are probably the biggest differences.
Originally posted by UFS:
I'll end this by saying I'd have ~15 more total W/WHIP/ERA points if I stuck to MY plan, instead of worrying/reacting about what YOU guys are trying to do and chase W's and K's too early this year. Reacting to what others do seems to always backfire IMO. When I read Shawn's stuff, I see him just focusing on what he needs to get it done.
I won FB last year by sticking to the plan, and am kicking myself now for not. Still time to fix it hopefully. No disagreement on that.
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by bjoak:
You weigh age too heavily, esp. for players with an established level of performance and old player's skill sets. How do you know how much I value age? [/QUOTE]Because you've argued it before. It seems apparent. Didn't you have Tulo down for 34 homers or something?
That was one season. Don't tell you base your projections on looking at one season. And yes, I would rather base my projections on one year than the last four equally weighted (and of course multiplied by 10 for every year under 26 the guy is ). [/QUOTE]You are incorrectly speculating when you can just look at what I said I projected, which refutes your speculation. Don't make it harder than it has to be.
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by bjoak:
You weigh age too heavily, esp. for players with an established level of performance and old player's skill sets. How do you know how much I value age? [/QUOTE]Because you've argued it before. It seems apparent. Didn't you have Tulo down for 34 homers or something?
That was one season. Don't tell you base your projections on looking at one season. And yes, I would rather base my projections on one year than the last four equally weighted (and of course multiplied by 10 for every year under 26 the guy is ). [/QUOTE]You are incorrectly speculating when you can just look at what I said I projected, which refutes your speculation. Don't make it harder than it has to be.
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
Miggy and Holiiday will post similar, great numbers by the end. The difference will be the 15-20 SB that was easy to see before the draft.
Holliday has NEVER stolen even 15 more than Miggy.
2007: +9
2006: +1
2005: +13
2004: -2
Average for Holliday, +5 SBs per season.
Meanwhile, Miggy has avg'd +6 more HRs over these 4 seasons, making the HR/SB a wash in value. Miggy is also +10 runs and +15 RBI, on average. [/QUOTE]More P of A.
Miggy doesn't run. Matt does. DET runs a little less than FLA does.
I weigh the years also. What a guy did 3 years ago does little for me. Too many things change so quickly.
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
Miggy and Holiiday will post similar, great numbers by the end. The difference will be the 15-20 SB that was easy to see before the draft.
Holliday has NEVER stolen even 15 more than Miggy.
2007: +9
2006: +1
2005: +13
2004: -2
Average for Holliday, +5 SBs per season.
Meanwhile, Miggy has avg'd +6 more HRs over these 4 seasons, making the HR/SB a wash in value. Miggy is also +10 runs and +15 RBI, on average. [/QUOTE]More P of A.
Miggy doesn't run. Matt does. DET runs a little less than FLA does.
I weigh the years also. What a guy did 3 years ago does little for me. Too many things change so quickly.
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Originally posted by UFS:
Miggy doesn't run. Matt does. DET runs a little less than FLA does.
I weigh the years also. What a guy did 3 years ago does little for me. Too many things change so quickly. What Holliday did three years was the only season that supported your argument!
Anyway, look just at the last 2 seasons. Matt is +5 per year. And you somehow come to the conclusion that CLEARY he will steal 15-20 more. Just admit you were exaggerating to make a point and we can agree.
Miggy also was said to come into camp lighter and in better condition this offseason, after getting fat last season. The year before his fat season he stole 9 to Holliday's 10. So far, I'd prefer to have the fat guy's numbers though.
[ June 16, 2008, 05:21 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
Miggy doesn't run. Matt does. DET runs a little less than FLA does.
I weigh the years also. What a guy did 3 years ago does little for me. Too many things change so quickly. What Holliday did three years was the only season that supported your argument!
Anyway, look just at the last 2 seasons. Matt is +5 per year. And you somehow come to the conclusion that CLEARY he will steal 15-20 more. Just admit you were exaggerating to make a point and we can agree.
Miggy also was said to come into camp lighter and in better condition this offseason, after getting fat last season. The year before his fat season he stole 9 to Holliday's 10. So far, I'd prefer to have the fat guy's numbers though.
[ June 16, 2008, 05:21 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
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Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
Miggy and Holiiday will post similar, great numbers by the end. The difference will be the 15-20 SB that was easy to see before the draft.
Holliday has NEVER stolen even 15 more than Miggy.
2007: +9
2006: +1
2005: +13
2004: -2
Average for Holliday, +5 SBs per season.
Meanwhile, Miggy has avg'd +6 more HRs over these 4 seasons, making the HR/SB a wash in value. Miggy is also +10 runs and +15 RBI, on average. [/QUOTE]More P of A.
Miggy doesn't run. Matt does. DET runs a little less than FLA does.
I weigh the years also. What a guy did 3 years ago does little for me. Too many things change so quickly. [/QUOTE]OK, so look just at the last 2 seasons. Matt is +5 per year. And you somehow come to the conclusion that CLEARY he will steal 15-20 more. Just admit you were exaggerating to make a point and we can agree.
Miggy also was said to come into camp lighter and in better condition this offseason, after getting fat last season. So far, I prefer the fat guy's numbers though. [/QUOTE]No. Matt has the potential for 15, maybe 20. He had 7 in last 71 last year.
Miggy had the potential for 1, maybe 2. Like last year, I didn't see any potential/need for Miggy to run this year.
haven't touched on this yet, so here goes....
Not taking a 5-cat guy in round one makes it more likely to peg yourself into "must have/take" picks in later rounds. Like Weeks for SB in RD 5!
The competition is too great to expect your ideal draft or pigeon hole yourself into picks.
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
Miggy and Holiiday will post similar, great numbers by the end. The difference will be the 15-20 SB that was easy to see before the draft.
Holliday has NEVER stolen even 15 more than Miggy.
2007: +9
2006: +1
2005: +13
2004: -2
Average for Holliday, +5 SBs per season.
Meanwhile, Miggy has avg'd +6 more HRs over these 4 seasons, making the HR/SB a wash in value. Miggy is also +10 runs and +15 RBI, on average. [/QUOTE]More P of A.
Miggy doesn't run. Matt does. DET runs a little less than FLA does.
I weigh the years also. What a guy did 3 years ago does little for me. Too many things change so quickly. [/QUOTE]OK, so look just at the last 2 seasons. Matt is +5 per year. And you somehow come to the conclusion that CLEARY he will steal 15-20 more. Just admit you were exaggerating to make a point and we can agree.
Miggy also was said to come into camp lighter and in better condition this offseason, after getting fat last season. So far, I prefer the fat guy's numbers though. [/QUOTE]No. Matt has the potential for 15, maybe 20. He had 7 in last 71 last year.
Miggy had the potential for 1, maybe 2. Like last year, I didn't see any potential/need for Miggy to run this year.
haven't touched on this yet, so here goes....
Not taking a 5-cat guy in round one makes it more likely to peg yourself into "must have/take" picks in later rounds. Like Weeks for SB in RD 5!
The competition is too great to expect your ideal draft or pigeon hole yourself into picks.
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by UFS:
Not taking a 5-cat guy in round one makes it more likely to peg yourself into "must have/take" picks in later rounds. Like Weeks for SB in RD 5!
The competition is too great to expect your ideal draft or pigeon hole yourself into picks. I didn't view Weeks as a "must-take" player. I had him down for 260-20-30, which would be a very nice MI in the 5th round.
I also wasn't too worried about SBs, plenty of guys I liked later in the draft with speed. I'm not too far off the pace in speed despite McLouth and Abreu being way off their SB pace and Tulo getting only 1 so far.
[ June 16, 2008, 05:40 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
Not taking a 5-cat guy in round one makes it more likely to peg yourself into "must have/take" picks in later rounds. Like Weeks for SB in RD 5!
The competition is too great to expect your ideal draft or pigeon hole yourself into picks. I didn't view Weeks as a "must-take" player. I had him down for 260-20-30, which would be a very nice MI in the 5th round.
I also wasn't too worried about SBs, plenty of guys I liked later in the draft with speed. I'm not too far off the pace in speed despite McLouth and Abreu being way off their SB pace and Tulo getting only 1 so far.
[ June 16, 2008, 05:40 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by UFS:
Matt has the potential for 15, maybe 20. He had 7 in last 71 last year.
Miggy had the potential for 1, maybe 2. Like last year, I didn't see any potential/need for Miggy to run this year.
Speculating on potential is one thing, calling something obvious that is unsupported by the facts is another.
Miggy has one already, so he is trouncing your projected potential.
[ June 16, 2008, 05:52 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
Matt has the potential for 15, maybe 20. He had 7 in last 71 last year.
Miggy had the potential for 1, maybe 2. Like last year, I didn't see any potential/need for Miggy to run this year.
Speculating on potential is one thing, calling something obvious that is unsupported by the facts is another.
Miggy has one already, so he is trouncing your projected potential.
[ June 16, 2008, 05:52 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
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What happened to the guy who predicted a 350-30-30 season out of Robinson Cano???
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Originally posted by KJ Duke:
What happened to the guy who predicted a 350-30-30 season out of Robinson Cano??? Wow, who is that?
What happened to the guy who predicted a 350-30-30 season out of Robinson Cano??? Wow, who is that?
Chance favors the prepared mind.
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sportsbettingman
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Originally posted by KJ Duke:
What happened to the guy who predicted a 350-30-30 season out of Robinson Cano??? I was hoping for something in the .310 28HR 100R 100RBI 10SB range for his high side. I also thought he'd wind up hitting from the 2 hole.
He's a player I've watched closely all year.
He seems to be turning it around, and even his outs are well hit many times. He seemed to have been trying to get a HR on too many swings earlier this season instead of taking what the pitcher was giving.
I've been dissapointed with the current stats of 4 of my first 6 picks. (Rollins, Granderson, Cano and Smoltz)...but I still like them to give me most of what I need from them (aside from Smoltz)
Harden has been a pleasant surprise and can absorb losing Smoltz, and Ellsbury's speed has made up for the lack thereof from Granderson.
~Lance
[ June 16, 2008, 07:09 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
What happened to the guy who predicted a 350-30-30 season out of Robinson Cano??? I was hoping for something in the .310 28HR 100R 100RBI 10SB range for his high side. I also thought he'd wind up hitting from the 2 hole.
He's a player I've watched closely all year.
He seems to be turning it around, and even his outs are well hit many times. He seemed to have been trying to get a HR on too many swings earlier this season instead of taking what the pitcher was giving.
I've been dissapointed with the current stats of 4 of my first 6 picks. (Rollins, Granderson, Cano and Smoltz)...but I still like them to give me most of what I need from them (aside from Smoltz)
Harden has been a pleasant surprise and can absorb losing Smoltz, and Ellsbury's speed has made up for the lack thereof from Granderson.
~Lance
[ June 16, 2008, 07:09 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
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Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Speculating on potential is one thing, Yes, you own the speculation market
Nothing wrong at all projecting Holliday for 15 SB and Miggy for 2.
Speculating on potential is one thing, Yes, you own the speculation market
Nothing wrong at all projecting Holliday for 15 SB and Miggy for 2.
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
What happened to the guy who predicted a 350-30-30 season out of Robinson Cano??? Hind sight is such a great thing
What happened to the guy who predicted a 350-30-30 season out of Robinson Cano??? Hind sight is such a great thing
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by UFS:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Speculating on potential is one thing, Yes, you own the speculation market
Nothing wrong at all projecting Holliday for 15 SB and Miggy for 2. [/QUOTE]As I said, I had 12 and 4 so that difference seems reasonably close.
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Speculating on potential is one thing, Yes, you own the speculation market
Nothing wrong at all projecting Holliday for 15 SB and Miggy for 2. [/QUOTE]As I said, I had 12 and 4 so that difference seems reasonably close.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Speculating on potential is one thing, Yes, you own the speculation market
Nothing wrong at all projecting Holliday for 15 SB and Miggy for 2. [/QUOTE]As I said, I had 12 and 4 so that difference seems reasonably close. [/QUOTE]And I had 10 and 6.
Nothing wrong with any of those projections, I could argue in defense of any of them - they all have a reasonable basis. The only thing "wrong" is saying that one of them was "clearly" right before the season started.
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Speculating on potential is one thing, Yes, you own the speculation market
Nothing wrong at all projecting Holliday for 15 SB and Miggy for 2. [/QUOTE]As I said, I had 12 and 4 so that difference seems reasonably close. [/QUOTE]And I had 10 and 6.
Nothing wrong with any of those projections, I could argue in defense of any of them - they all have a reasonable basis. The only thing "wrong" is saying that one of them was "clearly" right before the season started.
Las Vegas League 3
Well, I think UFS should have clearly projected 14 SB's for Holliday so our projections could have followed a cleaner mathematical sequence.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Speculating on potential is one thing, Yes, you own the speculation market
Nothing wrong at all projecting Holliday for 15 SB and Miggy for 2. [/QUOTE]As I said, I had 12 and 4 so that difference seems reasonably close. [/QUOTE]And I had 10 and 6.
Nothing wrong with any of those projections, I could argue in defense of any of them - they all have a reasonable basis. The only thing "wrong" is saying that one of them was "clearly" right before the season started. [/QUOTE]Holliday 8
Miggy 1
Mine were clearly right, except that I might be low on Matt at his current pace
I haven't speculated on fat players since taking Bart his Cy Young year
quote:Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Speculating on potential is one thing, Yes, you own the speculation market
Nothing wrong at all projecting Holliday for 15 SB and Miggy for 2. [/QUOTE]As I said, I had 12 and 4 so that difference seems reasonably close. [/QUOTE]And I had 10 and 6.
Nothing wrong with any of those projections, I could argue in defense of any of them - they all have a reasonable basis. The only thing "wrong" is saying that one of them was "clearly" right before the season started. [/QUOTE]Holliday 8
Miggy 1
Mine were clearly right, except that I might be low on Matt at his current pace
I haven't speculated on fat players since taking Bart his Cy Young year
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by bjoak:
Well, I think UFS should have clearly projected 14 SB's for Holliday so our projections could have followed a cleaner mathematical sequence. If I type LOL, would it count?
Well, I think UFS should have clearly projected 14 SB's for Holliday so our projections could have followed a cleaner mathematical sequence.
If I type LOL, would it count?Las Vegas League 3
In League news, even if just for a moment, Brian has passed Randy in average.
We've both (more Brian lately) been running right up to him and bouncing down dozens of times...
We've both (more Brian lately) been running right up to him and bouncing down dozens of times...
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by bjoak:
Well, I think UFS should have clearly projected 14 SB's for Holliday so our projections could have followed a cleaner mathematical sequence. Yes. It went clean from Euclid to Dukelid, hit a glitch at UFSucklid.
Well, I think UFS should have clearly projected 14 SB's for Holliday so our projections could have followed a cleaner mathematical sequence.
Yes. It went clean from Euclid to Dukelid, hit a glitch at UFSucklid. Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by UFS:
In League news, even if just for a moment, Brian has passed Randy in average.
We've both (more Brian lately) been running right up to him and bouncing down dozens of times... Berkman had to come down, and I doubt Giles is a 330+ hitter, so he could be vulnerable especially with Furcal out of the lineup.
In League news, even if just for a moment, Brian has passed Randy in average.
We've both (more Brian lately) been running right up to him and bouncing down dozens of times... Berkman had to come down, and I doubt Giles is a 330+ hitter, so he could be vulnerable especially with Furcal out of the lineup.
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In other league news, I've got my Tiger stud in M Thames, who needs Miggy? Seven homers in two weeks and a day.
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Originally posted by UFS:
In League news, even if just for a moment, Brian has passed Randy in average.
We've both (more Brian lately) been running right up to him and bouncing down dozens of times... He is tough. I think at one point I had 120 points and he had 130 and I was behind him in *every* category.
Watching the Mickey Mantle documentary on HBO on demand. Good stuff.
In League news, even if just for a moment, Brian has passed Randy in average.
We've both (more Brian lately) been running right up to him and bouncing down dozens of times... He is tough. I think at one point I had 120 points and he had 130 and I was behind him in *every* category.
Watching the Mickey Mantle documentary on HBO on demand. Good stuff.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
In League news, even if just for a moment, Brian has passed Randy in average.
We've both (more Brian lately) been running right up to him and bouncing down dozens of times... He is tough. I think at one point I had 120 points and he had 130 and I was behind him in *every* category.
Watching the Mickey Mantle documentary on HBO on demand. Good stuff. [/QUOTE]If it's the one I saw, both good and sad. Mick and I have the same B-day
quote:Originally posted by UFS:
In League news, even if just for a moment, Brian has passed Randy in average.
We've both (more Brian lately) been running right up to him and bouncing down dozens of times... He is tough. I think at one point I had 120 points and he had 130 and I was behind him in *every* category.
Watching the Mickey Mantle documentary on HBO on demand. Good stuff. [/QUOTE]If it's the one I saw, both good and sad. Mick and I have the same B-day
Las Vegas League 3
Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:It's still a waste of time IMO.I actually agree, believe it or not--not that it is okay for someone to announce picks before the draft, of curse, but definitely, I'd say some of my best picks have been picks on the fly that I never expected to take but was jammed into when all my plans went awry, Byrnes excepted of course.
BTW, I love Fukudome like an irrational Cubs fan! [/QUOTE]I hope to say this about Peavy. I really wanted Berkman and his 1b/of flexibility at 2.11
I've clicked on a Yahoo's SF box score in game about 40 times this year, and EVERY time R.Winn has just got another frickin hit. I really hate this guy.
quote:It's still a waste of time IMO.I actually agree, believe it or not--not that it is okay for someone to announce picks before the draft, of curse, but definitely, I'd say some of my best picks have been picks on the fly that I never expected to take but was jammed into when all my plans went awry, Byrnes excepted of course.
BTW, I love Fukudome like an irrational Cubs fan!
[/QUOTE]I hope to say this about Peavy. I really wanted Berkman and his 1b/of flexibility at 2.11I've clicked on a Yahoo's SF box score in game about 40 times this year, and EVERY time R.Winn has just got another frickin hit. I really hate this guy.