Chase Utley

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:15 am

Few like risk in the first round. Albert Pujols was last years poster child for avoiding any risk in the first round. Utley, especially in early drafts may nosedive out of the first round, dependant on progress reports come January and February.

Last years drafters of Pujols found a gold mine. Same with Utley next year? Or is he a bust waiting to happen? Holliday's adp has already taken a hit, Utley's adp is sure to follow.

If he misses spring training, where would you draft him?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:35 am

Sorry Tradesman, I stepped on your thread. Got diverted and you beat me to the punch...

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:38 am

i bet if you go back and read every word about eric chavez after his surgery you could plug utelys name in and it would read the same. no matter how many websites are out their or guys espn employs- the real truth hardly ever comes out. utley will "look great" and "feel great" and be back "shortly" -until he actually plays. i love utely as a player- but it will be tough to assess, if he isn't playing on draft day. my guess is he won't be playing at all in march.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:55 am

I agree, it seems a lot of teams and players are "Riccharding" it and give glowing reports when there really is no news or just flat out lie.

Why? Who does it benefit? A nasty trend.

[ November 20, 2008, 04:56 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

overyourshoulder · Post by **overyourshoulder** » Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:15 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I agree, it seems a lot of teams and players are "Riccharding" it and give glowing reports when there really is no news or just flat out lie.

Why? Who does it benefit? A nasty trend. Who benefits? The team that spreads the misinformation so they can make other deals without a gun being held to their head. Some would see that a big advantage.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:47 pm

Originally posted by overyourshoulder:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I agree, it seems a lot of teams and players are "Riccharding" it and give glowing reports when there really is no news or just flat out lie.

Why? Who does it benefit? A nasty trend. Who benefits? The team that spreads the misinformation so they can make other deals without a gun being held to their head. Some would see that a big advantage. [/QUOTE]I don't buy that.

Physicals have to be passed, your integrity as a trading partner is forever questioned. There is just no advantage down that road.

These players aren't traded anyway, most are on the d.l., during the season, when deals aren't much of a thought.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:05 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

i bet if you go back and read every word about eric chavez after his surgery you could plug utelys name in and it would read the same. no matter how many websites are out their or guys espn employs- the real truth hardly ever comes out. utley will "look great" and "feel great" and be back "shortly" -until he actually plays. i love utely as a player- but it will be tough to assess, if he isn't playing on draft day. my guess is he won't be playing at all in march. It sounds like 6 months is the far end of how long it takes to recover from this. Chavez has had shoulder and back injuries. This is a hip injury so while I'm no doctor, I'm sure the risk of recurrence is much different. I'd also say that since Utley already played with the injury, maybe the worst case scenario that you're hypothesizing here is that he plays with it again.

How well he plays and what round people want him in if he's going to miss the first month of the season are different questions entirely and will be difficult to answer until we see what kind of information we have come March.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:27 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Few like risk in the first round. Albert Pujols was last years poster child for avoiding any risk in the first round. Utley, especially in early drafts may nosedive out of the first round, dependant on progress reports come January and February.

Last years drafters of Pujols found a gold mine. Same with Utley next year? Or is he a bust waiting to happen? Holliday's adp has already taken a hit, Utley's adp is sure to follow.

If he misses spring training, where would you draft him? Based on your phrasing, it sounds like you're suggesting that if he were scheduled to go on day one but misses st, where do you draft him? Seems like an unlikely scenario, but that is a tough one. I would assume it was bs I guess and plan for five months of him (After all, doesn't he need to get in some practice swings somewhere?). After that it is a matter of giving your best guess on what his season would be worth for five months and then adding replacement value for one month and seeing if his current draft spot was worth it. Hard to come up with an accurate projection on a dime with all those variables that require so much more information, but my best guess would be that he takes a stolen base hit and his value ends up late 4th/early 5th. As we discussed earlier today, however, sometimes you like to play it safe in the early rounds and there are bound to be other guys you like better when his value comes up, so I don't know if I'd actually take him until the 6th or 7th.

It is a very unusual situation, and I don't think he's someone I'd try to plan for unless you think you are sure to get 5+ rounds of extra value based on his adp. Basically, you plan to make him someone else's problem until his value is too great to ignore.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:01 am

Ah, there's the rub. Missing spring training won't necessarily mean that we'll get five months from him and since our previous posts there have been more reports that we can only expect three-four months from him.

He probably won't be on my team if he misses all of spring training. Missing spring training would put me at the mercy of Roto updates mostly coming from a source that wants him back as much as a fantasy owner. Unless, as you stated, the value is too hard to pass on,I'll let someone else deal with it.

[ November 21, 2008, 09:14 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:13 am

I guess I am just not as skeptical as you guys about correct information. No one ever lied about Chavez. He had recurring injuries. How many guys last year did they intentionally misfeed us info on? I would say there were as many guys who came back earlier than expected as there were who came back late (especially w/r/t pitchers). I think by March we'll have a good idea of when he'll come back.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 4:37 am

bjoak- you are closer ( obviously) to the chavez situation than me- so i will go with whatever you say- but i seem to recall that his back was " fine" and his shoulder "wasn't going to require surgery' then it did and his back wasn't fine either. maybe he was a bad example- but i think we all know this stuff goes on. like doughboys i am mystified as to why. agents? in football i can understand- guys could try to rehurt you or teams will have to game plan like you are on the field. baseball- why? one thing i do know- a web site just quoted chavez as saying he feels "great". is that what you read/heard/saw in oakland?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:44 am

Yeah, that is exactly what happened with Chavez, but isn't that a recurrence? He was fine and then he started using the back and shoulder in play and then he was in rough shape again. He has a history of that and while the medical staff might have done a better job, I never thought it was smoke and mirrors on the part of the team. If it was, they wouldn't have let him play.

Going forward, he feels great, but he is clearly made of glass.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:45 am

Two years ago in home league, I drafted BJ Ryan relatively high up. He was coming off of big season and had missed some of spring training with "back stiffness" 3 weeks into the season, he went down with torn elbow. Toronto later announced that he had missed spring training with elbow problem, not back as they previously reported.

I guess some GMs feel that if other teams know of your player going down for year, they have more leverage over the team witht he hurt player. I do not know how true that is for a team like Toronto, but I can see other teams holding up the high profile teams whose fans demand WS every year.

What concerns me about Utley, is not that they are being misleading, but that they have not announced what the injury, or the surgery is. There are different types of hip injuries and surgeries, that carry varying significance. Im sure that will be cleared up as the situation develops, but when injuries are not explained fully, it gives more of a pause.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 6:52 am

The concern is the labrum in his hip. They won't know the degree of severity until they get in there but the maximum severity would take 6 months to recover from.

BJ is the classic example of misinformation from a team and just about the only documented case.

[ November 21, 2008, 12:53 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:16 am

The ball club benefits with preseason tickets sales. At least that's the accusation. A few clubs have been accused of this. The Cubs come to mind. Healthy Mark Prior = better chance of playoff run/World Series = better preseason ticket Sales. Then, once the season starts and most/all of the Season Ticket sales are over with, they can 'come clean'.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:40 am

Originally posted by Liquidhippo:

The ball club benefits with preseason tickets sales. At least that's the accusation. A few clubs have been accused of this. The Cubs come to mind. Healthy Mark Prior = better chance of playoff run/World Series = better preseason ticket Sales. Then, once the season starts and most/all of the Season Ticket sales are over with, they can 'come clean'. I'll buy that.

Even during the season, with an upcoming home stand of seven games, fans would still be under the impression that they could see Prior or a certain player during that week.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:40 am

the cubs have been sold out and are sold out from june 3 1994 till october 3 2214. pick a different team and i will go with it.

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 1:34 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

the cubs have been sold out and are sold out from june 3 1994 till october 3 2214. Yes, for the season tickets that is true. However non-season ticket package single game tickets were available for numerous games in 2006 & 2007.