Braun is it true

[751542]

Again, this is surmising that one of the 15 drafters will be an 'all or nothing' type of picker.

i believe i resemble this remark!

[Gekko]

if braun misses 50 games, i can't see how someone could draft him prior to maybe the 5th round. seeing how he MIGHT get it reduced or eliminated, i could see how a 3rd round pick would be reasonable...

[ToddZ]

The way I will look at it is giving Braun about 2/3rd of his full season projections, then adding on what I think I can get from a 50-game substitute taken late and "value" that combo player.

So for the sake of this example, say I have Braun for 30/30/ I will give him 20/20 and add on maybe 6 HR and 3 SB, figuring I can get a 20/10 OF to use instead. So I figure out where I would draft a 26/23 guy and slot Braun there, something like that.

[converge241]

Great cover choice rotowire

"Braun Power" hah

http://s06-232.claritytech.com/magazine/

[Winston's Empire]

Interesting Article and this is not the first time I have heard this here in Wisconsin. Will this change his draft position?!?!

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/a ... l&c_id=mil

[Hells Satans]

Yeah, the rumor that Braun's people are leaking is that he has herpes and the test result is due to the medication used to treat it. From the stuff I've read, Braun's defense seems dubious.

[Greg Ambrosius]

In the Rotowire Industry draft this week Braun went 42nd overall. In the three NFBC Slow Drafts that are in the third round right now, he's gone 35th, 31st and 28th. Interesting.

Is that too high, too low or just right?

[751542]

3.6

[Gekko]

no way braun is getting out of it. he's sitt'n 50 games. who knows what kinda shape he's gonna be in when he's reinstated? he's probably gonna hurt more teams than he helps this year.

[TOXIC ASSETS]

To borrow a line from "The Grinch Who Stole Christmas"....

I wouldn't touch Braun with a....39 1/2 foot pole. Why gamble on this guy?

[whipsaw]

I took him twice, once at 31 and once at 35. Even assuming he sits the 50, I think early third is a completely profitable place to take him, especially in a dc format. Regular 30 person rosters and I might think harder in that spot. I too think it's highly unlikely that the suspension gets reduced, but it's not zero so that adds to the potential profit as well.

[tslive]

I think people are so fixated with Braun's suspension that they forget he is losing Prince Fielder. Also his 2011 stolen bases were a spike that will likely drop back down to the teens. These things considered I rank Braun roughly 60th while the suspension is unresolved and # 75 once it's confirmed. If it's overturned, he's # 6.

[Gekko]

he's missing 50 games is a given. add in no fielder. just think if he also suffers an injury and misses a few weeks.

[Winston's Empire]

Starting to sound like it will be 50 games for Braun. Will he still goin the late 2nd or 3rd Round? Happy New Year!

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4048/ryan-braun

[Gekko]

hopefully he will go late second in every draft i'm in. i know i won't be me taking him.

[Rainiers]

The worst case scenario for Braun projections has not been considered....that not only was he taking testosterone but also it's common illegal-companion HGH. This trendy PED combo is relatively detection-free and increases speed, not power.

Interesting to note, at the unlikely late age of 27, that Braun doubles his steals output from 14 to over 30. This, along with the alleged testostorone usage should be considered a red flag and the distinct possibility that he regresses to more like 10-12 SB should be considered. Perhaps the steals increase was due to a managerial change in philosophy as reported in the media. Perhaps it was due to a boost in speed via illegal drugs. Not knowing for sure which, I'm going with the latter.

For me, Braun is not draftable until after the seventh round, considering:

1) no Fielder and normal regression making him a late first rounder
2) a steals projection of 10, not 30, dropping him to the top of the third round
3) a fifty-game suspension dropping him to a six- or seventh-round pick by value
And 4) the intrinsic cost of needing to eat up a roster spot on the bench for two months, eliminating the ability to park a future call-up or closer-in waiting there.

Basically an eighth-round pick for me. Unlikely he will be available then.

[Walla Walla]

Although this is from a non NFBC player speaking I think you have to add on another 25 games to the 50 he'll already miss.
He can't work out with the team so catch up time will be at least a month. That's on top of the fifty he will miss.
HERPES really? I would have thought the other way around. The drug caused herpes or conduct there of. Next will be Fielder fails medical due to herpes. Signs minor league contract.

[converge241]

Good write up, Rainiers.

And yes he will be gone well before that seems to be 3rd round (and early 3rd at that) in most mocks/real drafts.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Here's an interesting update by Jon Heyman, who now is writing for CBS Sports.com:

http://jon-heyman.blogs.cbssports.com/m ... 2/34232524

Braun is showing up to the BBWA banquet to accept his MVP award, which is either ballsy or he feels confident of his innocence. Should be interesting to hear what he says.

[Greg Ambrosius]

It sounds like Braun's hearing will be this week. The decision may not be known for several weeks after that, however. Great read today on ESPN.com about Braun's situation:

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/ ... oes-player

[Greg Ambrosius]

And his appeal is under way.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/74818 ... -drug-test

[Jarbel]

Since Braun's appeal process has started and I for one who took the gamble on him with the 29th overall pick in my draft lets be hypothetical here.

So Braun misses 50 games what type of production does he produce? He'll be eligible to play in 112 games this year barring any injuries.

So which Ryan Braun do you get?

Do we get his Rookie Year where he played in 113 games

.324 avg
34hr
97 rbi
91r
15sb

Or do we get last .69% of his last year numbers?
.305-.315 avg (he's a career .312 hitter so far)
23hr
77 rbi
75 runs
22sb?

Which Braun will we get? He has proven once in his career already that he can produce after missing 49 games can he do it again? I know his .69% of last years numbers aren't 2nd round worthy but his ROY stats are 2nd round worthy. I know Braun won't be able to work out with the team but I'm sure he'll keep himself in game shape the best he can and how motivated will he be to prove the haters wrong? I still feel there are to many question marks regarding this whole situation and even after the appeal process is done especially concerning the players privacy and that positive results aren't suppose to get released until after the appeals process? Also why would he start with PED's now and this was never an issue before. He played in the minors when the testing was tougher than the big league level? Call me a homer but I'm favoring the story of honest mistake and forgot to report his medical condition. He still may miss 50 games but I think it was an honest mistake and he'll still produce

[Rog]

how much will his numbers be affected with out that big left hander hitting behind him? How many pitchers are going to pitch to him with aram behind him,is there 2 - 6 in the lineup all right handed?

[TOXIC ASSETS]

Jarbel --- 29th was too high. Maybe 129. I just dont' think you gamble that high in the draft. But that's me.

[gpchurchill]

interesting take on latest information to come out;

http://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-observat ... 012/01/04/

i'd feel safe wagering that the 50 games stick.