Ron Shandler Chatting Here Today

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:24 am

Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

Would you take either Victor Martinez or Joe Mauer in top 40? Top 40 is probably pushing it. You definitely want to get a catcher of that caliber in a higher round (than say, an outfielder with equal potential), but I'd probably lean more toward Rd 4 or 5. And Martinez yes, but Mauer no. You can't compare them..... yet.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:27 am

Originally posted by TheKing:

Ron,

Put yourself in the shoes of an NFBC participant. You've drawn the 4 spot and Arod, Pujols, and Vladdy are off the board. Do you take Crawford? I got slammed on some boards for doing just that last year, didn't I?

Crawford is tempting but I might opt instead for someone more across-the-board productive and stable, like Abreu or Derek Lee. In another year, I'd say Tejada without hesitation, but I think there is more risk in him this year than ever before.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:28 am

In developing your skills model for a hitter, there seems to be no x-factor for the ability to "place" a ball where it is less likely to be fielded.

Is this a shortcoming that is just not possible to predict, are you working on something to account for this, or do you believe this does not exist as a skill in professional baseball?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:30 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Ron, what does Leo Mazzone focus on that increases the probability a pitcher will improve under his watch ? And do you believe any positive he'll bring will be totally countered by the improved offenses of Tor & TB not to mention the stalwarts bos and ny ?Magic beans. Frankly, Mazzone does a lot of what other pitching coaches also do, but seems to have much more success. An analyst more versed in scouting might have better insight. But I do think he'll take the O's staff up a notch - despite the improved competition - the question will be WHO? Perlozzo wants him to work with Bedard and Cabrera, but Mazzone's biggest successes have come with pitchers who had more major league experience.

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:32 am

Will Jason Bay produce late first round numbers with that lineup?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:32 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

It seems you projections of Bobby Jenks are a bit low. He has a nasty curveball that simply seems unfair with his triple digit heat. Playing on that team, with that group of starters I would think he has a chance to be in the elite class of closers. Is it his injury history that tempers your projections? And are they injuries that could very well appear in 2006? Injury history, lack of long-term track record and the fact that I saw him pitch in the AFL and had to run for cover every time the ball left his hand.... and I was standing at the concession stand. Images like that don't leave your head too quickly.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:34 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

In developing your skills model for a hitter, there seems to be no x-factor for the ability to "place" a ball where it is less likely to be fielded.

Is this a shortcoming that is just not possible to predict, are you working on something to account for this, or do you believe this does not exist as a skill in professional baseball? There has been research done (not by me) that this is not a skill that exists to any great degree. Batters do have ground ball or fly ball tendencies, but any ability to decide to hit a ball where defenders are not positioned is overblown.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:38 am

Ron, was Pujols' SB output a one-year only deal or a sign of things to come?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:39 am

Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

Will Jason Bay produce late first round numbers with that lineup? I think he will. Looking at skills alone, he's definitely a first-rounder. But even in PIT, their lineup could be productive enough to provide him with RBI opps.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:40 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

Ron, was Pujols' SB output a one-year only deal or a sign of things to come? I'd take the gamble and say that he could post another double-digit SB season, if for no other reason than that lineup will probably have to manufacture more runs in 2006.

TheKing · Post by **TheKing** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:41 am

Ron,

Have you ever considered researching a pitcher's ability to strike out batters vs the number of walks allowed? Just kidding...

Does Brett Myers take another step forward this year? Does Schmidt rebound to become a top 10 sp?

pancho11 · Post by **pancho11** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:42 am

Where would you pick beltran in a nfbc draft

How big of a factor will Pedro's toe be this year? Do you think its possible they are using the toe for public relations reasons for his future withdrawal from WBC

Heffer · Post by **Heffer** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:43 am

Ron , What ballpark changes around baseball will affect players stats the most?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:45 am

Originally posted by TheKing:

Ron,

Have you ever considered researching a pitcher's ability to strike out batters vs the number of walks allowed? Just kidding...

Does Brett Myers take another step forward this year? Does Schmidt rebound to become a top 10 sp? Myers could possibly improve, despite the fact that he faded in the 2nd half last year. He allowed HRs at a greater rate than would be expected with his skills - even at that ballpark - and any improvement will filter down to his ERA. Schmidt is more of a risk. I'd bet against a rebound to Top 10.

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:48 am

Hey Ron,

I drafted last year heavily with the Forecaster in hand and landed a 3rd place finish in my NFBC league. 2 players that killed me last year were Huff and Casey. Do you see any rebound for these players in 2006 and what are your thoughts on 3rd base this year which appears to be extremely deep? I believe with the exception of A Rod, it may not be necessary to waste a 1st round pick on 3rd Base. Your thoughts please.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:49 am

Originally posted by pancho11:

Where would you pick beltran in a nfbc draft

How big of a factor will Pedro's toe be this year? Do you think its possible they are using the toe for public relations reasons for his future withdrawal from WBC I've got Beltran as an early 3rd rounder.

Pedro is a risk (one of the reasons why I think Sheets will move ahead of him) and the Mets are working hard to spin every health situation he encounters - they've got too much invested in him to afford any PR backlash.

As for the WBC... there is strong speculation that many of the players dropping from those rosters are afraid of facing the drug testing that's required to participate. Just throwing that out, not pointing fingers...

TheKing · Post by **TheKing** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:49 am

Ron,

Does Gordon Gekko have a shot at the 100K this year?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:49 am

Originally posted by Heffer:

Ron , What ballpark changes around baseball will affect players stats the most? Can't think of any that would impact anyone's numbers enough to matter.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:50 am

Any idea how the New Busch Stadium is going to play? Can Chris Carpenter repeat his performance of the past two seasons? Any chance that Sidney Ponson re-emerges, assuming Aruban judges are kept at a safe distance...

Heffer · Post by **Heffer** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:52 am

Ron, what are your thoughts on the kentucy derby style draft. and what would be your preferances on the draft order?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:52 am

Originally posted by Big Fish:

Hey Ron,

I drafted last year heavily with the Forecaster in hand and landed a 3rd place finish in my NFBC league. 2 players that killed me last year were Huff and Casey. Do you see any rebound for these players in 2006 and what are your thoughts on 3rd base this year which appears to be extremely deep? I believe with the exception of A Rod, it may not be necessary to waste a 1st round pick on 3rd Base. Your thoughts please. If you are extremely risk averse to the point that ANY small hint of former steroid use scares you away, whether or not it's true, then you avoid Huff this year.

Casey is a ground ball hitter who's lucked into a few mini-power seasons, but he's essentially a ground-ball hitter. I won't be fooled by that again this year.

Agreed on the depth at 3B. You clearly have to get one of the best 2B and SS before you need to draft a 3Bman.

cindy · Post by **cindy** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:53 am

Ron, if you had the opportunity to use part of your $1,000 of FAAB for the season to bid on your draft spot in a straight draft how much would you bid to land arod or pujols? or would you prefer to save the money and randomly get your draft spot, in a nutshell, do you think spending a chunk of your FAAB $ on getting arod or pujols is worth it? thanks

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:55 am

Originally posted by TheKing:

Ron,

Does Gordon Gekko have a shot at the 100K this year? Yes, but first he has to make sure he buys the Baseball Forecaster, subscribes to BaseballHQ.com and attends our First Pitch Forums (especially in Tampa if that is where he is going to draft). If he does all those things, I GUARANTEE that he will finish higher than if he doesn't, which immediately increases his odds of winning the 100K.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:56 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Any idea how the New Busch Stadium is going to play? Can Chris Carpenter repeat his performance of the past two seasons? Any chance that Sidney Ponson re-emerges, assuming Aruban judges are kept at a safe distance... Ah, I forgot about the new Busch in that previous question! New Busch is going to be more of a pitchers park than Old Busch. That will help Carpenter at least maintain his current level of performance. Not even George Busch can help Ponson.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 15, 2006 8:57 am

Originally posted by Heffer:

Ron, what are your thoughts on the kentucy derby style draft. and what would be your preferances on the draft order? Frankly, I've never done this so I'm not in position to comment. I will be watching though.