NFBC Article Posted on BaseballHQ.com

[Greg Ambrosius]

We're glad to be working with a couple of industry partners again this year to spread the word about the NFBC through their popular baseball web sites. We are working with Ron Shandler again and posting a weekly article each Monday on BaseballHQ.com and we are doing the same thing with our good friends at Rotowire.com. Thanks for spreading the love guys!!

We kick off the season by looking at the early picks in a few of our early NFBC Draft Champions Leagues. Hopefully this will whet the appetites of some folks and get them drafting along with us. Here's the article:

http://www.baseballhq.com/content/nfbc-early-trends

When it comes to fantasy baseball drafts, we all know that you can’t win a title with your first-round pick, but you sure as heck can lose a chance at a title with that pick.

For further evidence, look at last year’s first round in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). The consensus No. 1 overall pick—Matt Kemp—was an MVP candidate in April, but he suffered a hamstring injury in early May and limped through the rest of the season, missing 56 games to injury after playing in 399 consecutive games.

But he wasn’t the only disappointment. Our Average Draft Positions (ADPs) showed that Troy Tulowitzki had an ADP of 5; Jacoby Ellsbury,6; Jose Bautista, 8; Joey Votto, 11 and Evan Longoria, 13. All of those players suffered injuries and were major busts for their fantasy owners. Also disappointing in the first round were Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Upton, 12.

But that’s a normal year for the first round. Each year less than 40% of first round picks are among the Top 15 performers for that season. We draft them based on last year’s numbers, but each year a new season begins and nothing is guaranteed. We build our foundations with our first-round picks and hope for the best.

This year’s first round is shaping up already with a solid first tier of stars. The NFBC began hosting online Draft Champions Leagues (15 teams, 50 rounds, no in-season moves) in November and we’ve already held 11 drafts. In all 11 drafts, the top three players selected were Mike Trout (4 times), Miguel Cabrera (4) and Ryan Braun (3). Robinson Cano has gone 4th overall eight times, followed by Matt Kemp (2) and Andrew McCutchen. That’s a pretty solid Top 6.

After that it gets kind of interesting. Albert Pujols and Joey Votto are inter-changeable at 7-8, while Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton and Prince Fielder all can make the Top 10.

But for the first time in the NFBC’s history, we are actually seeing two starting pitchers and a catcher going in the first round of some drafts. Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander have gone in the Top 15, while Buster Posey’s current ADP is 13. Heck, I’ve even seen some drafts where THREE starting pitchers and a catcher have gone in the first round: Strasburg, Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Posey.

The best part about drafting early in the off-season is that there are no ADPs posted anywhere and owners are drafting from their own projections—just like the old days. Yet even in today’s information age, everyone’s cheat sheets look pretty similar. Through 11 NFBC drafts, we have only 20 unique choices among the first 15 picks. They include in order of our current ADP:

1. Miguel Cabrera

2. Mike Trout

3. Ryan Braun

4. Robinson Cano

5. Matt Kemp

6. Andrew McCutchen

7. Albert Pujols

8. Joey Votto

9. Carlos Gonzalez

10. Josh Hamilton

11. Prince Fielder

12. Stephen Strasburg

13. Buster Posey

14. Justin Verlander

15. Clayton Kershaw

16. Giancarlo Stanton

17. Hanley Ramirez

18. Evan Longoria

19. Troy Tulowitzki

20. Jose Bautista

It’s also the first time in nine years that at least one shortstop isn’t going regularly in the first round. But you can find them in the second round with Ramirez, Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes going in the Top 25.

Other interesting trends that we’ve seen from the early NFBC drafts:

Don’t be surprised if 10 of the first 50 picks are starting pitchers this year. We’ve never seen such a run on SPs before, but our most recent NFBC $100,000 champions have built their staffs around 1-2 solid starters and that trend is now catching on. Going in the top are: Strasburg, Verlander, Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, David Price, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, R.A. Dickey, Zack Greinke and Gio Gonzalez.

Rookie of the Year Love: Trout is a Top 3 overall pick after unanimously winning the AL ROY Award, while NL ROY winner Bryce Harper is going in the Top 40 overall. AL Top 3 finishers Yoenis Cespedes and Yu Darvish are going in the Top 50 and 75, respectively.

Billy Butler Love: He’s no longer just a DH, which is giving Butler all kinds of love in NFBC drafts. He’s been a consistent Top 50 overall pick because he played exactly 20 games at first base last year, giving him a real position for 2013. Fantasy owners love the designation and love his potential.

Don’t Forget About Victor Martinez: He missed all of last season with a knee injury, but he returns this season with Catcher eligibility. He was a third round pick last year, but now the 33-year-old has fallen to around 75th overall. Other catchers going before him include Posey (ADP of 13), Joe Mauer (63), Carlos Santana (64) and Wilin Rosario (73). Matt Wieters and Yadier Molina also go ahead of him at times. Martinez, though, shouldn’t be forgotten.

Closer dominance: Craig Kimbrel is easily the first closer picked in all NFBC drafts. He goes in the Top 60 and no other closer is picked within 30 spots of him. Jonathan Papelbon, Fernando Rodney and Jason Motte all start to go around pick 90, but nobody is in a hurry to pick a closer after Kimbrel.

Bounceback Years?: We were burned by them last year, but top picks of 2012 are still putting up good showings in 2013. Here’s where you can find these players, who fantasy owners hope will have bounce-back years: Justin Upton (26), Adrian Gonzalez (30), Ellsbury (33) and Eric Hosmer (80).

It’s never too early to start preparing for this season’s fantasy drafts. NFBC owners have already uncovered some Draft Day trends that we think will hold true throughout the off-season. So be prepared for them and plan to build a winning foundation with the early trends we’ve found here. Good luck everyone.

(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry’s premiere pay-to-play contest. For more details on the NFBC, which will award over $2 million in prize money this year, go to nfbc.stats.com or contact Greg at [email protected])

[King of Queens]

But for the first time in the NFBC’s history, we are actually seeing two starting pitchers and a catcher going in the first round of some drafts.

2004 NFBC ADP

Alex Rodriguez 13 1.15
Alfonso Soriano 13 2.31
Albert Pujols 13 3.00
Carlos Beltran 13 4.08
Todd Helton 13 5.31
Vladimir Guerrero 13 6.15
Mark Prior 13 7.31
Miguel Tejada 13 9.92
Pedro Martinez 13 10.77
Manny Ramirez 13 11.31
Nomar Garciaparra 13 11.92
Curt Schilling 13 14.46
SF Outfielder 13 15.00
Edgar Renteria 13 15.85
Bret Boone 13 16.15

[Greg Ambrosius]

But for the first time in the NFBC’s history, we are actually seeing two starting pitchers and a catcher going in the first round of some drafts.

2004 NFBC ADP

Alex Rodriguez 13 1.15
Alfonso Soriano 13 2.31
Albert Pujols 13 3.00
Carlos Beltran 13 4.08
Todd Helton 13 5.31
Vladimir Guerrero 13 6.15
Mark Prior 13 7.31
Miguel Tejada 13 9.92
Pedro Martinez 13 10.77
Manny Ramirez 13 11.31
Nomar Garciaparra 13 11.92
Curt Schilling 13 14.46
SF Outfielder 13 15.00
Edgar Renteria 13 15.85
Bret Boone 13 16.15

Only you would still have this data!! First of all, Prior doesn't count. Secondly, I don't see a catcher in this group, which is what I wrote. Thirdly, who is this SF Outfielder in the Top 15?

[King of Queens]

But for the first time in the NFBC’s history, we are actually seeing two starting pitchers and a catcher going in the first round of some drafts.

2004 NFBC ADP

Alex Rodriguez 13 1.15
Alfonso Soriano 13 2.31
Albert Pujols 13 3.00
Carlos Beltran 13 4.08
Todd Helton 13 5.31
Vladimir Guerrero 13 6.15
Mark Prior 13 7.31
Miguel Tejada 13 9.92
Pedro Martinez 13 10.77
Manny Ramirez 13 11.31
Nomar Garciaparra 13 11.92
Curt Schilling 13 14.46
SF Outfielder 13 15.00
Edgar Renteria 13 15.85
Bret Boone 13 16.15

Only you would still have this data!! First of all, Prior doesn't count. Secondly, I don't see a catcher in this group, which is what I wrote. Thirdly, who is this SF Outfielder in the Top 15?

The bigger question is: what were you and Tom doing with all that FREE TIME when you were only running 13 main event leagues and 3 auctions?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lEql0srv9w

[Greg Ambrosius]

Only you would still have this data!! First of all, Prior doesn't count. Secondly, I don't see a catcher in this group, which is what I wrote. Thirdly, who is this SF Outfielder in the Top 15?

The bigger question is: what were you and Tom doing with all that FREE TIME when you were only running 13 main event leagues and 3 auctions?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lEql0srv9w[/quote]

Hah, you must have forgotten that this was a part-time gig for us. We were both still working in the sports card industry and our custom publishing business in fantasy sports was taking off like gangbusters. We were still writing and publishing our own magazines and publishing magazines for Rotowire.com, Rotoworld, Fantasy Guru.com, FootballGuys.com and others. Now we can't write as much as we used to because we're taking care of you folks full-time!!

[poopytooth]

2004 NFBC ADP

Alex Rodriguez 13 1.15
Alfonso Soriano 13 2.31
Albert Pujols 13 3.00
Carlos Beltran 13 4.08
Todd Helton 13 5.31
Vladimir Guerrero 13 6.15
Mark Prior 13 7.31
Miguel Tejada 13 9.92
Pedro Martinez 13 10.77
Manny Ramirez 13 11.31
Nomar Garciaparra 13 11.92
Curt Schilling 13 14.46
SF Outfielder 13 15.00
Edgar Renteria 13 15.85
Bret Boone 13 16.15[/quote]

Only you would still have this data!! First of all, Prior doesn't count. Secondly, I don't see a catcher in this group, which is what I wrote. Thirdly, who is this SF Outfielder in the Top 15? [/quote]

The bigger question is: what were you and Tom doing with all that FREE TIME when you were only running 13 main event leagues and 3 auctions?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lEql0srv9w[/quote]


King, that may be the bigger question, but I think the BIGGEST QUESTION IS

If you were in Vegas and were a contestant on a game show which awarded $1,000,000 if you could correctly identify the number of players in that 1st RD, which had used PED's within 12 months prior to or after, what would your answer be?

[BK METS]

I count 5 in that list that are confirmed.. anyone else I am missing?

Arod
Manny
Tejada
Boone
Bonds

[poopytooth]

I count 5 in that list that are confirmed.. anyone else I am missing?

Arod
Manny
Tejada
Boone
Bonds

BK - There was some unconfirmed suspicion around others as well. My question was really geared towards how many where doing something, whether confirmed or not. We will never know, but for me, of the 15, I would guess the following:

Alex Rodriguez YES
Alfonso Soriano YES
Albert Pujols YES (I know some will disagree and yes, no evidence, just MY guess).
Carlos Beltran YES
Todd Helton YES (even if former manager tried to retract statements)
Vladimir Guerrero I would hope no.
Mark Prior YES
Miguel Tejada YES
Pedro Martinez I would hope no
Manny Ramirez YES
Nomar Garciaparra YES
Curt Schilling NO
SF Outfielder YES
Edgar Renteria YES
Bret Boone YES

To me, if there was a real answer and I was on a game show, I would look at somewhere between 12 and 14. My guess would be 13 either used steoids or HGH at least one time. I would hope that I am wrong and that I am guessing too high, but looking at stats and the ERA, I think the total is closer to 12 than the 5 confirmed.
More than anything, looking at the list was somewhat sad when I thought about it. To be fair, to go as high as 12-14, I should have said, at any point in their career, not just year before or after.

[BK METS]

Its funny you are suspicious of Beltran. I was thinking the same thing, until last year. I then looked at his stats over his career and the pictures of him as a rookie and during his big year with the Mets in 2006, and now. He has been consistant, with no real difference in size or increase of power. He had normal big years in the peak of his career, along with some injuries, then a huge bounce back year, last year.

I may be going out on a limb here, but I don't think Beltran used PEDs. Maybe I am wrong... but I agree with your other guesses.

[Greg Ambrosius]

This one is also on BaseballHQ.com and Rotowire.com to whet the appetites of those fine subscribers:

The value of any MLB player can fall in the eyes of fantasy owners with one bad season. Heck, with one bad half season. Forget it—with one bad month!

When players decline in a big way over the preceding season, you can look at it in one of two ways. First, it can be a sign of declining production, declining skills and declining value. Or two, it can be a great buying opportunity for fantasy owners. There are reasons for that bad season and maybe the blame isn’t all on declining skills.

Last year we saw several top stars fall badly and now their values are much lower than they were a year ago. They have fallen by several picks and in some cases they’ve fallen by several rounds in the last year. Here's some help in sorting out the great values in 2013 from the great risks. Average Draft Position (ADP) results coming from more than a dozen current NFBC drafts will be our guide:

Matt Kemp: The consensus No. 1 overall pick of 2012 is going as high as 4th now and as low as 12th in NFBC drafts. He's settling in around 7th overall because some owners are scared off by the shoulder surgery he had this off-season. Remember, though, that Kemp looked All-World last April when he hit .417-12-25 before pulling a hamstring and going on the DL. There’s great value here; should be no trouble taking him as high as 5th overall, especially if he’s ready for Opening Day.

Troy Tulowitzki: He was a Top 4 pick last year, but he played in only 47 games due to a groin injury and has now missed 172 games over the last three seasons. He is consistently going between 20th and 23rd in NFBC drafts and could be a real second round bargain in 2013. He’s still just 28 and last year he hit .287-8-27 in 47 games, which was on pace for 28 HRs and 93 RBIs. Don’t expect 10+ SBs anymore, and he's not a first-rounder, but if you can get him late in the second round and he stays healthy for once, he could be a real bargain in 2013.

Evan Longoria: His ADP in the NFBC last year was 13 and despite missing 88 games to a hamstring injury, he is still going between 22nd and 25th overall. An elite third baseman who is only 27, he has missed 117 games the last two seasons. Still, it’s obvious that fantasy owners forgive him for his pulled hammy last year and are still on board with his power potential. Seems like second round is about right.

Jacoby Ellsbury: He was a Top 6 overall pick last year, but the season went in the toilet quickly thanks to a separated right shoulder on April 13. He didn’t return until July 13 and hit .278-4-23-14 over the last half of the season. Astute fantasy owners know that Ellsbury is headed to free agency after this season and he will do everything in his power to play for a big contract. It will be tough to ever duplicate 2011 again (.321-32-105-39), but that potential makes him a worthy gamble. He’s going 28th to 30th overall and could move up even further with a strong spring. Risky, but upside at that spot.

Victor Martinez: He missed all of last season with a knee injury, but retains his catcher eligibility in the NFBC. He was a third-round pick last year before his knee surgery, but one year removed from the majors he’s now going around 83rd overall. That’s a huge drop for a player who hit .330-12-103 before that and who now returns to a more powerful lineup. His value is likely to rise once people see him healthy this spring, so grab him late in the 6th round and expect big dividends from this investment.

Brett Lawrie: A strained oblique cost Lawrie 37 games in 2012 and reduced his value this year. A hot third round pick a year ago, Lawrie is now going in the sixth round, between picks 71 to 76. That could be solid value as he did hit .291-8-33 with 11 stolen bases before his injury and still has 20-20 potential in this solid lineup. Overvalued last year, this year he could be a bargain. Grab him.

Roy Halladay: The two-time Cy Young winner was a Top 20 pick last year, but a persistent shoulder injury has really knocked down his star. He’s now going in the 90-95 range and rightfully so. Some are worried about the innings load and many are taking several rising young pitchers before Halladay so far.

Carl Crawford: From superstar to bust, Crawford now finds himself with the Dodgers after playing in only 31 games in 2012. He was a Top 30 pick in 2011, but now you can get him around pick #160. He has one of the widest ranges in NFBC drafts so far, going anywhere between picks 125 and 183. Still only 31, Crawford could be a bargain if he can stay healthy and play with confidence again.

Mariano Rivera: The greatest relief pitcher in MLB history missed most of last season after undergoing knee surgery, but will return for one last season at the age of 43. Last year he was a Top 80 pick and the second reliever taken after Craig Kimbrel. This year he goes only in the Top 140 overall.

Do you see declining stars on this list or buying options? At their current ADP levels, looks like more bargains than busts.

(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry’s premier pay-to-play contest. For more details on the NFBC, which will award over $2 million in prize money this year, go to nfbc.stats.com or contact Greg at [email protected])

[Greg Ambrosius]

Our 3rd NFBC column is now posted on BaseballHQ.com and on Rotowire.com. Enjoy:

http://www.baseballhq.com/content/nfbc-2013-rookie-crop

One year after watching Mike Trout and Bryce Harper come out of nowhere to lead fantasy teams to league titles, owners are all over this year’s top prospects. This year you can already see owners targeting younger players and putting them on their radars like never before.

Trout may have had the greatest ascension for a player since Doc Gooden in 1984. He went from a late round prospect—‚his Average Draft Position (ADP) in the NFBC last March was 280—to now a consensus Top 3 overall pick. His ADP in the NFBC is 2 right now behind only Miguel Cabrera and just ahead of Ryan Braun. He’s the No. 1 Dynasty player who appears to have the skills to be a fantasy star for the next 15 years.

Bryce Harper’s ADP last March was 256 and yet he went on to win the NL’s Rookie of the Year award. He’s now going around 35th overall in NFBC drafts and is expected to be a star as long if not longer than Trout. Amazing value on those two prospects last year and something nobody will soon forget.

Now for the important question: Is there an emerging prospect this year who can do what Trout and/or Harper did last year?

Easy answer: UNLIKELY.

That being said, there is a strong crop of prospects who should grow into solid stars this season. Let’s look at the top rookies who are currently being drafted in the NFBC:

Wil Myers, OF, TAM: Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year hit .314-37-109 with 98 runs in 134 games between Double-A and Triple-A before being traded by Kansas City to Tampa Bay this off-season. Still just 21, he has been compared to Dale Murphy with his prodigious power and solid baseball skills. It’s very likely that he follows the same path that Trout did last year, starting out the season at Triple-A before emerging in the majors by early May and winning AL ROY honors. His ADP right now in the NFBC is 205.

Jurickson Profar, SS, TEX: His ADP is 233 mainly because there’s no guarantee that he will be in the majors full-time in 2013. Profar and Elvis Andrus both play shortstop and the Rangers don’t want to part with Profar in a trade. He could move to second base if Ian Kinsler moves to third base, getting all three bats in the lineup. At the age of 19, Profar hit .281-14-62-16 with 76 runs in 126 games at Double-A Frisco and he appears to be ready for the majors. But until his status is more certain, he will be available in the 16th to 18th rounds.

Adam Eaton, OF, ARI: Speed is always hard to find in fantasy baseball, so nobody should lose track of Eaton on Draft Day. He appears to be a bargain now with an ADP of 236 after the Diamondbacks made room for him in center field by trading Chris Young to Oakland. Eaton and newly signed Cody Ross will battle for the starting job. Last year at Triple-A Reno, Eaton, 24, was named the Pacific Coast League MVP after hitting .381-7-45 with 38 stolen bases and 119 runs. He hit .259-2-5-2 in 22 games with Arizona and showed management that he can handle the job. Now he needs a fast start to hold off Ross.

Shelby Miller, RHP, STL: The Cardinals’ top prospect over the last three seasons is ready to take a spot in the starting rotation and he could be a workhorse for years to come. He had his worst season in the minors in 2012 when he went 11-10 with a 4.84 ERA at Triple-A Memphis, but he went 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA in six appearances in St. Louis, including a solid start against Cincinnati in which he allowed just one hit and no runs. At 6’3”, 195, the right-hander has the makeup and the elite fastball (160 Ks last year in 136.2 IP) to be a solid fantasy contributor for many years. His ADP right now is 274, but expect his draft status to rise if he pitches well this spring.

Billy Hamilton, OF, CIN: NFBC owners are currently drafting in Draft Champions Leagues where no free agent pickups are allowed during the season. Thus nobody is losing sight of Hamilton, who set the minor-league record last year with 155 stolen bases. The Reds have moved this speedster from shortstop to the outfield and he will likely start the season at Triple-A, where he will spend most of the season. His ADP is 276 right now with the hope that somehow he emerges in Cincinnati during this season.

Bruce Rondon, RHP, DET: Can the Tigers really hand the closer’s role to this 22-year-old when they’re making a run for a World Series title? The answer is yes, since the Tigers haven’t signed a veteran reliever after letting Jose Valverde go. Rondon had 29 saves last year between three minor-league levels and he struck out 66 batters with 26 walks over 53 innings. He has a fastball that clocks at 100+ mph, but control has always been his downfall. NFBC owners like his potential and are drafting him around the 277th overall pick, but don’t be surprised if a veteran reliever is brought in this spring to contend and maybe even take over the closer’s job from Rondon.

Kyuji Fujikawa, RHP, CHC: The Cubs signed the premier closer in Japan this off-season for $9.5 million over two years to help stabilize the late innings and to help a young staff. Fujikawa, 32, could be a setup man for Carlos Marmol, but don’t be surprised if he closes some games this year and takes over the role at some point in 2013. He’s getting mild interest from NFBC owners, who have his ADP at 283.

Darin Ruf, OF, PHI: The Phillies are trying to convert this first baseman into a left fielder, and he could start the season at Triple-A to learn his new position. The 26-year-old had a breakout 2012 season at Double-A Reading, hitting .317-38-104 in 139 games. During a September call-up, Ruf hit .333-3-10 in only 33 at-bats. His right-handed bat is needed in this lineup, but the Phillies won’t rush him to the majors just yet. NFBC owners understand that, which is why his ADP is only at 302.

Other rookies to watch include Jedd Gyorko (ADP of 304), Travis d’Arnaud (317), Hyu-Jin Ryu (320), Darin Mastrioianni (325), Dylan Bundy (347), Mike Olt (352), Tyler Skaggs (371) and Trevor Rosenthal (425). Can any of these prospects be the next Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? Only time will tell, but there is no doubt that the talent is strong in the minors and many of these prospects today will be fantasy standouts for years to come. Get them while you can.

(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry’s premier pay-to-play contest. For more details on the NFBC, which will award over $2 million in prize money this year, go to nfbc.stats.com or contact Greg at [email protected])

[Greg Ambrosius]

A couple of Rotowire readers asked me about St. Louis outfielder Oscar Taveras, so I posted this reply:

Taveras is a VERY interesting prospect for fantasy owners. He is only 20 years old and yet he still hit .321-23-94 with 10 stolen bases and 83 runs at Double-A Springfield. He's also hitting well in the Dominican Winter League. Even Cardinal executives are saying that he's the best prospect the organization has had since Albert Pujols. So why isn't he being drafted yet in NFBC leagues? Because the feeling is that the Cardinals' outfield is set right now and there's no reason to rush Taveras to the majors. But as you say, if an injury happens or if they decide to go with Taveras over John Jay at some point he could take the job and really blossom. Again, he isn't being drafted regulary at this point in NFBC leagues, but that could change by spring. He's definitely a hot prospect, but one who is still only 20 years old.

[Captain Hook]

Always the debate for those in the D&H leagues - is the prospect going to come up and play or are you wasting a roster spot?

Trout was much easier to draft in those leagues than the later ME leagues because you didn't need him right away and had more roster spots.

I agree with Greg that there really isn't a comparable player to Trout or Harper in 2013 ....
- Even IF Myers is up in May (and it could easily be later) he doesn't have the speed that Trout and Harper do plus when up will he play every day for the Rays? maybe

Profar over the weekend went from "we think he is going to play every day in Arlington" to "maybe he starts the season at AAA ... there are still a lot of moving parts for the Rangers but again he is more draftable in D&H leagues because you don't need him up at the start of the year...... and BTW Greg he is only draft eligible at 2B and that is where he is most likely to play in 2013

Postscript to everything you have seen about the Rangers lineup .... What ever happened to the idea that Andrus or Kinsler would be moved to the OF? Right now all we hear is Kinsler to 1B but absent a trade only the lack of time to properly prepare them defensively is a negative to one of the IF to the OF

PPS - I do completely agree with Greg that there is very little chance that Taveras is in St. Louis in 2013 (aside from injury AND massive start)

[Greg Ambrosius]

Here is this week's article that has been posted on BaseballHQ.com and Rotowire.com. In fact, I'm going to talk on SiriusXM today at 11:03 am CT with Jeff Erickson about this column and other NFBC news, so join me then. Thanks all.

Here is this week's column, which talks about the Catchers Position:

I must admit that when doing my position-by-position rankings this off-season, one of the most interesting positions is Catcher. It’s interesting because that position ranges from an MVP winner (Buster Posey) who is going in the first round of NFBC drafts to No. 1 catchers who can literally bury you in the batting average category.

Fantasy owners are going to have to make tough decisions this year when it comes to catchers because history has shown that picking a catcher too early can be lethal, while picking a catcher too late can also be dangerous. Finding the right time to pick the best catcher is critical to your success, even more this year than in recent years.

What I’m seeing from catchers is what we saw with tight ends this fantasy football season. Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were regularly being drafted in the first round this year even though it was rare to ever see even ONE Tight End go in the first round of drafts. Sure enough, both had somewhat disappointing seasons due to injuries and a guy like Tony Gonzalez busted out from the 9th round as the 10th tight end picked and had the best season of anyone at this position.

The same thing could happen at Catcher, so be careful. Here are my thoughts on this position for 2013:

Buster Posey: The reigning NL MVP was a pleasant surprise last year after coming off a brutal knee injury in 2011. His ADP was 68 in 2012 and yet he put up a monster season, hitting .336 with 24 HRs, 103 RBIs and 78 runs. As a result, his ADP right now in the NFBC is 13. He’s consistently going in the first round and has gone as high as 9th overall. That’s pretty lofty for a catcher, so to justify that pick you better hope he duplicates or even IMPROVES on last year’s numbers.

Second Tier Catchers: The last time we saw a catcher going in the first round was 2010 when Joe Mauer had an ADP of 8. The Twins’ young slugger was coming off a monstrous season in which he hit .365-28-96-4-94 and he was only 26 years old. It seemed like a safe pick, right? Well, he wound up hitting .327-9-75 in newly built Target Field and has struggled with power since then.

Mauer is the next catcher to get on Draft Day 2013, but the drop-off is a big one. His ADP is currently 58 as he hit .319-10-85-8-81 last year. Not bad and he stayed healthy enough for 147 games. But it’s amazing what that ballpark has done to him. Did you know that he has only 5 home runs in THREE SEASONS at Target Field? FIVE. In 2009, he had 28 home runs and 16 were at the Metrodome. He’s a worthy No. 2 catcher, but look for power elsewhere.

There is enough depth at this position to get at least one solid hitting catcher, so don’t panic too early. I approached this position differently in two drafts this year and know what I won’t do again. The first draft I chose to wait on catchers and got stuck with two catchers who should hit below .220. I won’t do that again. In the next industry draft, I was much more pro-active and got Wilin Rosario and Ryan Doumit at bargain spots. I’m going that route in future drafts.

Why? Because I do think that fantasy owners still have the mentality to hold off on drafting catchers until the later rounds and that just won’t work anymore. Getting two late catchers could really hurt because there’s a huge drop-off in talent outside the Top 16.

Let’s look at the Top 10 catchers. You can win with any of these.

After Posey and Mauer, you have Carlos Santana with an ADP of 66 and Yadier Molina at 70. Santana is still only 26 and capable of 25 HRs and 80+ RBIs if he can get his average up to .265. Molina has been a huge bargain the last two years, hitting over .300 each year with power. He won’t come cheaply this year. Rosario (ADP of 79) is only 24 and an emerging star who hit .270-28-71 last year, with 18 of those HRs coming at Coors Field.

Victor Martinez (ADP of 80) could be the real bargain here. He missed all of 2012 with a knee injury, but should be healthy by Opening Day and will DH fulltime. He’s batting behind Fielder and could have plenty of run-scoring opportunities.
Rounding out the Top 10 Catchers are: Matt Wieters (82), Miguel Montero (96), Mike Napoli (100) and Salvador Perez (103). Perez is the bargain here as he’s just 22 and he hit .301-11-39 in 76 games and then went to the Venezuelan Winter League and hit .371-8-39 in 32 games. He’s a rising star.

I’d still take any of these next six: Jesus Montero (116), Jonathan Lucroy (134), Brian McCann (163 and out until mid-April), Ryan Doumit (175), A.J. Pierzynski (186) and Carlos Ruiz (203).

This is where trouble lies. The next five catchers all hit under .245 last year: Russell Martin (228), J.C. Arencibia (230), Alex Avila (233), Jarrod Saltalamachia (254) and Chris Iannetta (305). Getting stuck with two of these guys could kill your average.

If you’re looking for backstop sleepers, venture here: Travis d’Arnaud (312) was acquired by the Mets after hitting .333-16-52 last year at Triple-A Las Vegas. He has potential and a chance to start in New York. Miami’s Rob Brantly (334) could emerge this year, as could Seattle’s Mike Zunino, the No. 3 overall pick of the 2012 draft.

It’s an interesting position and one with enough talent to secure two solid hitters without going overboard in the early rounds. Just don’t wait too long to get two catchers this year or you’ll feel the pain that hurts worse than Gronkowski’s broken forearm.

(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry’s premier pay-to-play contest. For more details on the NFBC, which will award over $2 million in prize money this year, go to nfbc.stats.com or contact Greg at [email protected])

[Greg Ambrosius]

This week's column on BaseballHQ.com and Rotowire.com takes a look at last week's FSTA Industry League and compares those picks to our NFBC ADPs. The results are pretty interesting. Enjoy.

http://www.baseballhq.com/content/nfbc- ... fsta-draft

During the last couple of weeks, we’ve taken a look at the Average Draft Positions (ADPs) of the top players, rookies and closers who are being drafted in our NFBC leagues. We’ve pointed out the recent draft trends and picked out what we thought were some great bargains.

But now we get another set of data to compare these ADPs to this week. On January 21, 2013 at the Mirage in Las Vegas, the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) held a 13-team Industry League draft with 13 respected writers. Included among the owners participating in this draft was Ron Shandler of BaseballHQ.com and Steve Gardner of USA Today, the defending league champ. Steve won last year’s title by drafting Mike Trout in the 23rd round and R.A. Dickey in the 29th round—now those are bargains!

In 2013, the owners were again looking for bargains and trying to find value in every pick. But industry insiders have a totally different mentality than most NFBC owners when it comes to drafting starting pitchers. They like to lay off the startets in the early rounds, whereas NFBC owners know that an ace SP is critical to a team’s success. The difference between where those SPs were drafted was noteable. Let’s take a look:

Big 3: In the 2013 NFBC, we are seeing three starting pitchers going in the first round for the first time since the event was started in 2004. Right now Stephen Strasburg’s ADP is 13, Justin Verlander’s ADP is 14 and Clayton Kershaw’s ADP is 15. In the FSTA draft, Kershaw went 22nd overall, Verlander went 26th and Strasburg went 34th. This is a trend that you see in almost every industry writer’s draft, but NFBC owners are not going to shy away from the Big 3 anytime this off-season.

In the FSTA draft, you saw industry owners jump on SPs in the 3rd and 4th rounds, but there was a big lag when it came to getting the next tier of starters. Great values were found:

Zack Greinke: picked 74th; NFBC ADP of 58
Gio Gonzalez: picked 86th; NFBC ADP of 49
Madison Bumgarner: picked 91st; ADP of 59
R.A. Dickey: picked 105th; ADP of 63
Matt Harvey: picked 201st; ADP of 151

There are some industry writers who believe that Strasburg won’t hold up enough to warrant even a second round pick. Those are the same industry folks saying they wouldn’t take Mike Trout in the first round. Pretty interesting.

Other Notables:
Josh Hamilton: His ADP in the NFBC is 10, but he went in the second round with the 20th overall pick. There are many industry folks saying they have no faith in him this year hitting at Angel Stadium instead of Rangers Ballpark.

Bryce Harper: His ADP in the NFBC is 34, but don’t be surprised if he goes in the 2nd round by March. One industry writer wanted him badly enough to grab him 17th overall in this draft. The highest he’s gone in 40+ NFBC drafts is 22nd. Again, he may take a draft-list adjustment to assure he ends up on your team.

Ben Zobrist: He qualifies at 2B, SS and the outfield, plus he has 20/20 potential, so he’s very valuable. But he went 28th in the Industry draft, while his NFBC ADP is 50. Be ready for someone to jump him early on Draft Day.

Rookies: Even after the big rookie seasons of Mike Trout and Harper, industry writers aren’t eager to jump on this year’s solid crop of prospects. Here’s how far a few rookies fell compared to how NFBC owners are valuing them:

Wil Myers: picked 241st; ADP of 205
Shelby Miller: picked 306th; ADP of 276
Adam Eaton: picked 263rd; ADP of 247

One rookie that industry writers did jump on early was Billy Hamilton, who went 244th overall after having an NFBC ADP of 290. The potential of all those stolen bases—even though the Reds have already said that he will start the year at Triple-A to learn center field—wasn’t enough to scare off one owner. That could also happen in your league.

When it came to closers, industry writers waited more than NFBC owners do. Now, this was a 13-team league and not a 15-team league like the NFBC, so it was easier to get two closers. But still, the top closer went 80th in the FSTA draft compared to 47th in the NFBC draft. Other closers went 2-3 rounds later across the board in the FSTA draft.

As for veterans, industry writers were not as worried as NFBC owners, who seem to want no part of them this year. Here’s a few to be careful of:

Mark Teixeira: picked 40th; ADP of 61
Ryan Howard: picked 54th; ADP of 109
Chase Utley: picked 89th; ADP of 120
Derek Jeter: picked 84th; ADP of 140
Melky Cabrera: picked 94th; ADP of 112
Carl Crawford: picked 114th; ADP of 128
Nick Markakis: picked 68th; ADP of 145

Another interesting veteran who had varying values was 1B Eric Hosmer, who went 69th and has an ADP in the NFBC of 93. Hosmer burned way too many NFBC owners last year to be going in the Top 5 rounds.

This shows how the values of certain players are all over the board. Plan accordingly before your drafts and don’t be surprised if the players you wanted went earlier than expected.

(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and the General Manager of Fantasy Games at STATS LLC. For more information on the NFBC go to nfbc.stats.com or contact Greg at [email protected])

[Greg Ambrosius]

These articles I'm writing each week for BaseballHQ.com are posted on the free portion of their site, which generates a lot of traffic from USA Today. So this is great exposure for the NFBC. Here's my latest column, which looks at Bryce Harper's rising value in the NFBC:

http://www.baseballhq.com/content/nfbc- ... -it-player

One of the great things about watching 50+ pay drafts on the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) site since November is the rise and fall in value of certain players. Even though no games have been played since late October, some players seem to gain value during the off-season—and some lose value just as quickly—without even playing.

Right now the one player who is rising faster than anyone else is Washington OF Bryce Harper. The NL Rookie of the Year just turned 20 in October and his stock is up.. When we turned the draft engine on in November, Harper was a middle third round pick in our 15-team format. He was consistently going 37th or 38th in leagues. He moved up slightly in December and his Average Draft Position (ADP) was 34 by mid-January.

But in the last two weeks, something strange has happened. Harper has suddenly become the “it" player. He started creeping into the Top 30 and soon he was going consistently in the NFBC’s second round. Then he crept up to 20th, and eventually 16th overall. In our last 5 NFBC drafts, Harper has gone 31st, 29th, 20th, 21st and 20th. Rotowire’s Chris Liss picked him 17th overall in the recently completed FSTA Draft and he guarantees that Harper’s ADP will be Top 20 by late March.

Why are so many folks so high on this young star? Let’s look at the facts:

Harper was called up to the big leagues on April 27, 2012 when Ryan Zimmerman went on the DL and he didn’t seem fazed by the bright lights. He hit .270 in 533 at-bats with 22 homers, 59 RBIs, 98 runs and 18 stolen bases. He hit .260-14-34 after the All-Star break and finished strong in September when the Nationals were locking down the NL East, hitting .330-7-14-4 with 26 runs. That big finish has some owners expecting a 30-30 season from Harper very soon.

He’s entrenched in the No. 2 spot of this lineup and certainly can score 100+ runs in a full season. His .340 OBP is solid and opens up more opportunities to run as he converted 18-of-24 stolen base attempts. He hit .286-16-36 off left-handers and had solid home and away splits. The peripherals all look solid.

So where are the worries? Well, if he’s going Top 20 overall, he’s going to need to avoid the sophomore slump. Hey, it happens and it can certainly happen to a 20-year-old. He’s going to need to improve against left-handers (.240-6-23), and he’s going to have to hit breaking pitches better. He still struck out 120 times last year, which isn’t alarming, but they can be reduced. Still, overall the positives outweigh the negatives.

With every draft pick you want to get value. Anyone being picked in the Top 20 has to be a sure thing. They have to bring solid overall numbers. They have to even dominate in certain categories. Harper can do all of that, but at such a young age it’s not a given. Everyone loves his potential, but you’re going to have to realize that he’s not coming cheaply this year and he might not even be available past the second round.

Another player receiving a bump in value over the last two weeks is Justin Upton. Since his trade to Atlanta where he will join his brother B.J. in the Braves’ outfield, fantasy owners feel more secure in drafting him. The certainty of his destination makes it much easier to take him in the second round. Before the trade, his ADP was 24. Since then in NFBC drafts, he’s gone 23rd, 19th, 19th, 21st, 13th, 27th, 19th, 18th, 16th, 24th and 23rd. In other words, he’s moving into the Top 20 and even once into the first round.

In a poll of NFBC owners, 64% said the trade would improve Upton’s Draft Day value, while 36% said it would have no difference. Nobody said the trade would hurt his value. That’s interesting because Upton was such a better hitter at Chase Field than on the road and we all know that Turner Field isn’t a hitter’s park. Upton hit .307 with 67 home runs in 364 home games as a Diamondback and .250 with 41 homers in 367 road games. But he has hit .400 at Turner Field since 2009, the third highest mark among players with a minimum of 40 at-bats.

Like Harper, Upton had a big September, hitting .301-6-14-4. It’s also interesting to note that since 2009, only seven players have had at least 80 home runs and 75 steals and two of them are the Upton brothers. Justin has had 91 HRs and 77 SBs since 2009, while B.J. has had 80 and 151.

The other big piece in that trade with Atlanta was Martin Prado, who the Diamondbacks acquired and then signed to a 4-year, $40 million extension. He will start at third base, but also qualifies at OF in the NFBC. His ADP is 102 in the NFBC and since the trade he’s gone as high as 83rd and as low as 119th. His high contact rate (only 69 strikeouts in 619 ABs) should play well at Chase Field and he has 20-homer potential at that home park. The left side of Arizona’s infield last year hit .251. Prado has hit above .300 in three of the last four seasons and he should solidify the Hot Corner.

Finally, the six players named by the Miami New Times for PED purchases from a Miami clinic will surely have their Draft Day values affected. Gio Gonzalez (LHP, WAS) was named and could face a 50-game suspension if the allegations are true. His ADP right now in the NFBC is 50. Nelson Cruz (OF, TEX) is also named and he’s going in the Top 100 right now. Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY) is the highlighted player in this investigation, but he’s unlikely to even be drafted in the Top 450 of 30-round NFBC drafts because of his recent hip surgery.

Player values rise and fall quickly even when games aren’t being played. We’ll stay on top of all of them so that you’re ready on Draft Day.

(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the industry’s premier pay-to-play contest. For more details on the NFBC, which will award over $2 million in prize money this year, go to nfbc.stats.com or contact Greg at [email protected])

[Greg Ambrosius]

Ryan Braun is the subject matter of this week's column on BaseballHQ.com and Rotowire.com. Here is the link to the free portion of the BaseballHQ.com site:

http://www.baseballhq.com/content/nfbc- ... other-news

The top three picks in fantasy baseball have been established since the end of the 2012 season. It’s been Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout in just about every off-season draft, even though the order of the three has been mixed. Braun could go first, second or third, and the same could be said for Cabrera or Trout.

But once Braun’s name appeared on the Biogenesis monies owed ledger—not on the PEDs side, but on the accounting ledger that said he and his lawyer owed $20,000-$30,000—fantasy owners panicked. Twitter and industry message boards weighed in: “I’d never draft Braun now” and “I wouldn’t touch him with a 10-foot pole” were two common responses.

And in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, owners are talking with their wallets. In our pay NFBC Draft Champions Leagues, Braun has gone 5th, 4th, 4th and 4th in the four drafts that followed the announcement. Robinson Cano was picked ahead of him in two drafts and even Matt Kemp went ahead of him once.

That’s just crazy. For one thing, Braun isn’t likely to be suspended over this latest news. His alibi of paying Anthony Bosch as a consultant during his appeal last year with Major League Baseball hasn’t been disproven. It seems odd to use Bosch as a consultant, but no matter what his lawyers did to find evidence in his favor, the bottom line is that it worked and he won his fight with MLB over his positive test.

But with the latest news, he is now "proven" guilty now in the court of public opinion—and that could work to your advantage. Braun was clearly the top pick over the last few weeks and before the news he went No. 1 in four of six previous NFBC drafts. He was the No. 1 player on our Average Draft Position lists, ahead of Cabrera and Trout. Now he’s dropped to 4th or 5th? Take him.

Realize that Braun is one of only three players all-time (Barry Bonds, Vladimir Guerrero are the others) to put together multiple seasons with 30+ HR, 30+ SB, 100+ runs, 100+ RBI and a batting average of at least .300. Guerrero (2001-02) and Braun (2011-12) are the only ones to achieve that in back-to-back seasons. If he does it again in 2013, Braun would be the first to do it in three straight seasons.

If you look at his last two seasons, is there any difference at all?

2011: .332-33-111-33, 109 runs, .397 OBP
2012: .319-41-112-30, 108 runs, .391 OBP

He’s the same player he ever was, and maybe better. He continues to pound left-handers (.363 in 2012, .350 in 2011) and hit an MLB-high 17 HRs against lefties in 2012 after hitting a total of just 13 vs. lefties in 2010-11 combined.

Braun is getting better and you don’t want to miss out on another 30-30 season just because of this latest news.



The news about Chris Carpenter is a blow to the Cardinals and to fantasy owners. His ADP had been 225 before this week’s announcement that he will miss the entire 2013 season. NFBC owners have been targeting rookie Shelby Miller for weeks now and his ADP is up to 274. He could fill that fifth spot sooner than expected. Lance Lynn also is assured of being in the rotation now and his ADP has risen to 192. Trevor Rosenthal is another one to keep an eye on, but his ADP is only 426.

Another player moving down in the first round is Josh Hamilton, whose ADP in the NFBC was 10 last week. But he’s fallen into the second round recently and he’s been going more around 18, 19 and 20 than in the first round. Buster Posey also has been falling to 16, 17 and 18 after having an ADP of 13 earlier this year.

One player who hasn’t been connected to PEDs, but yet the power surge last year was unbelievable, is Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion. Last year, he set career highs in HRs (42 after hitting 17 in 2011), RBIs (110, previous high was 76), runs (93) and stolen bases (13). His .384 OBP was 50 points higher than the previous season. He also qualifies only at first base this year as he was a DH for 82 games and played third base only once.

But can you justify the power and take him in the second round? His ADP is 26, but can he really duplicate last year’s numbers?

It’s hard to imagine a repeat, but Encanarcion did tweak his swing slightly last year and it led to more fly balls. The distance on his 42 homers last year was second only to Josh Hamilton, averaging 413.2 feet per homer. Still, a shorter swing kept his strikeouts to a reasonable level (94 compared to 84 walks), and he led the majors with 161 fly balls in play. So his swing is now conducive to home runs and when he hits ‘em they go out at a 25% clip.

Still, there are factors to consider. 1) He’s no longer 3B-eligible. 2) He’s now 30. 3) It’s hard to forget 2008-10 when he hit a combined .242 with 4 SBs. What turned this guy from a huge disappointment to Superman? Let’s hope it was just a swing adjustment and maturity, but in today’s baseball world, it's hard to believe.

Interestingly, for the first time in a long time more Blue Jays are being drafted in the early rounds than Yankees or Red Sox. Even in our New York NFBC drafts the East Coast bias won’t help these aging Yankees or floundering Red Sox. Look at the ADPs of each team:

Toronto
=======
Jose Bautista 20
Jose Reyes 22
Edwin Encarnacion 26
R.A. Dickey 63
Brett Lawrie 67
Melky Cabrera 111
Brandon Morrow 119
Josh Johnson 137

New York
========
Robinson Cano 4
Curtis Granderson 38
Mark Teixeira 61
CC Sabathia 71
Mariano Rivera 136
Derek Jeter 139

Boston
======
Dustin Pedroia 25
Jacoby Ellsbury 33
Mike Napoli 105
Shane Victorino 108
Will Middlebrooks 113
David Ortiz 130
Jon Lester 142

It’s a crazy year, as we’ve learned this off-season from the Blue Jays and from Braun. And the good news is—it’s only just beginning!

[NorCalAtlFan]

at least you're objective in your thoughts on braun.

[Edwards Kings]

Nice article by Glenn Lowy, too!

[Greg Ambrosius]

Nice article by Glenn Lowy, too!

Good to see that. Folks should know that Glenn will be writing a weekly column about one of his NFBC teams for BaseballHQ.com this season. This is great exposure for the NFBC and BaseballHQ.com has definitely selected a top player to do this dirty work for them. Great job with this Glenn and continued good luck during the season.

[rmurph3]

Nice article by Glenn Lowy, too!

Yes, we're very excited to have Glenn writing for HQ!

[KJ Duke]

Let's see Lowy's article ... I need to count the Met references.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Awesome news, Glenn!
Congrats and I know from past like articles that they will be first rate.
Pay no attention to that heckler you'll be getting from New Jersey

[Edwards Kings]

Nice article by Glenn Lowy, too!

Yes, we're very excited to have Glenn writing for HQ!

That was a wise pick, Ray!

[Quahogs]

I always knew he had the writing chops ! I can see a similar linear path following this other guy --> Lowry's got the puffing part down pat ! congrats Glenn