Then and Now...

[DOUGHBOYS]

We are near the end of the off season. A funny metomorphisis happens during the off season. Without playing or getting hurt, some players move up and down our adp's. Here's a few examples....

Right after last season ended, there was a post from somebody that RA Dickey was first round material. Dickey was at the zenith of where he would go in a draft for 2013. Since, Dickey has been traded to a beast hitters park in a beast division in a beast league. Then, there's the thought that Dickey could be a one hit wonder. All these things have conspired to drive the asking price for Dickey down to the fifth round or worse.

In the pre-mature e-draftulation draft that starts as last season ends, Kyle Lohse was taken in the 10th round. The thought was that Lohse put up good numbers and that St. Louis wouldn't just let him go. But they could. And worse, for Lohse and his drafter, he has Scott Boras as his agent. Boras doesen't seem to grasp that the giving up of a first round selection for the signing of a free agent doesn't agree with most GM's. Especially a pitcher, who's numbers could be questioned outside of St. Louis. With any other agent, Lohse would be in a camp, for better or worse. Now, with each passing day, the thought of a wasted pick in drafting him is at the forefront of any drafters thoughts.
Soon, Lohse will have to decide what is larger, his desire to pitch or Boras' ego.

Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton were also popular early off season picks. Speed to burn. Surely, any team would love to have one of these speedsters at the top of one of their lineups. The problem being, of course, that they are one trick ponies. Judies. The kinds of players where an inside the park home run comes easier than hitting a ball over the fence.
We look at them as a difference maker in a category. Unfortunately, their teams look at them as a luxury. Most teams would rather play a 'traditional' ball player over a speedster. They just would.
If Hamilton and Gordon don't hit, they don't play. While an 0-4 with 2 stolen bases may satisfy the fantasy drafter, the real GM is plotting ways to send them back to AAA.

Some players go the other way. Last year Eric Hosmer and Brett Lawrie were 'must have's.' Their draft spots missled up charts till they were second and third round choices with a bullet. Now, Bryce Harper is seeing the same thing. Drafters were fine with seeing him being drafted in the third and fourth rounds early in the off season. Now, he's a bottom of the first round, top of the second pick. Harper has furthered this by having a good spring. Some believe that he passes Trout in more than one category this year. And that's without putting on 40 pounds.
A personal guess is that Harper is taken as high as fifth in at least one Main Draft. Will that drafter be smart for taking him so high?
Yeah, I don't know either.