In the Beginning, There Was KDS...

[DOUGHBOYS]

Let's take a look at before a draft and the beginning of the draft.
You've done all the homework. You've looked at whatever sources needs to be looked at. You've discussed players with frinds and enemies alike.
You've said, "Screw him, he fu**** me last year!"
And you've said, "I think this guy is gonna be great...and nobody knows HOW great, but me! Muuuuhahaha!"

Developing your strategy to use, the first draft is entered.
Alright!
Now, we have to tinker/not tinker with KDS.
I got an e-mail from an NFBC'er today, asking how I deal with KDS.
KDS is a tool that gives us a false sense of security about where we will be drafting.
I'm betting at least 50 % of KDS'ers go straight butter, 1-15.

For me, it varies year to year. Last year, I really liked Jose Fernandez. Wanted him in every draft. He seemed to have a 'comfort zone' of the bottom of the second round or top of the third.
Uncaring about first rounders much, I targeted 1-15 on most KDS.
And unfortunately, I got Jose Fernandez in most drafts
This year, I have been all over the Board. 14 drafts, still haven't drafted Trout.
KDS'd 1-15 in most, but in all cases, number one was first.
Never got him.

Draft Champions drafts, for me, is a way to test strategy or test how I would feel with certain players. Don't get me wrong, I still want to kick ass. But kicking ass is the 100% focus for larger drafts.
Anyway, we set the KDS, most of the time to target either a strategy or to go after 'our' players in the first, second, and possibly third round. After that, snake drafts become a little more muddied and we're not sure of how this particular draft will flow.

The first round begins.
Trout goes first. This is a sure thing. The only way this will be broken up is if he gets hurt, enters rehab, or there is a drafter who craves 15 seconds of infamy and selects somebody else.
If not wanting Trout, this drafter should have KDS'd 2-15, 1. But like said, he would be after his infamy.
Second will be one of seven players. And these players, usually will be the next seven players chosen.
They are McCutchen, Stanton, Goldschmidt, Kershaw, Abreu, Gomez, and Cabrera.

Of these, Cabrera, I believe, is still in a walking boot and hasn't looked like Miggy for a year and a half.
He is is still a good hitter. Even one handed with an arm tied behind his back. I just don't think he is a top pick.
I also wouldn't choose Gomez at number two.
He could get suspended for any amount of reasons. He also likes throwing himself around fences and bases. I don't like top picks that do this. I scratch Gomez.
Goldy was not hitting like the second or third pick in the draft when getting hurt last year. Something tells me that if chosen in the top 5, he will not return top 5 numbers.
Abreu looked human the second half of last year.
Did pitchers catch up to him?
I don't know.
And I don't want a question mark, if I'm the second pick of a draft. Really, I 'd rather have Goldy.
Giancarlo Stanton has played two full years in Five. Before last year, drafters treated him like Tulo. Now, after a full year, he's embraceable.
He'd be a tough take for me at number two.

That leaves McCutchen and Kershaw. Perfect.
Two different ways to start a draft.
Both, quality and responsible players. When getting hurt, they are smart about coming back.
Neither missing a lot of time. Both, extraordinary on the field.

Picks nine through 15 are all strategy oriented. These picks should be made with what lies ahead in your estimation for the rest of the draft.
Do you want Altuve?
Great. You have started off with a great average and a lot of speed and the runs should do well too. But, certainly, there has to be some mashers in mind behind him to give us the power that is so badly needed.
Altuve will never outplay his first round pick. Unless taking steroids and not getting caught.
He is a 2 3/4 category player for the first round.
Do you want Rendon?
Best positionality.
Great place in a great lineup.
Missouri/Missouri folks will take a pass at Rendon. His numbers seem to have come from nowhere. Others will take the plunge.
Do you like Tulo?
Some believe that if playing 80 games and teaming him up with another shortstop to take his place WHEN he gets hurt that they'll still get first round numbers.
These folks forget that it is the middle infielder taking Tulo's place and that the guy on the bench will be taking not only the middle infielders place, but the place of Tulo's numbers as well.
Good luck and tread lightly.
Encarnacion, Bautista, Rizzo, Brantley, Felix Hernandez.
Wait, lets talk about Hernandez.
He is going ninth or tenth in A LOT of drafts.
It's the highest I've ever seen King Felix go.
Why?
I believe it is because of Tommy Johnitis.
So many pitchers are afflicted with Tommy John that we react in wanting safety. Felix has been about as safe as it gets.
Down deep in our hearts, we know Tommy John can't be predicted.
Still, we feel safer with Hernandez.

What about anybody else?
How much thought goes into your KDS?
Do you KDS for the first, second, third rounds?
Or is there a strategy involved.
And what about first rounders?
Agree with my assessments, don't agree?
Let me have it!

[NorCalAtlFan]

nein

[ToddZ]

The more I think about it, the more I wonder if getting your KDS is actually a hindrance. Drafting where you want puts you into your comfort zone. I'm not sure some of us would actually draft better outside of our comfort zone. We'd be more likely to take more chances as opposed to the pre-planned safe play.

[Navel Lint]

I used to fool around with KDS, not anymore. I go straight butter 1-15.

From a purely mathematical standpoint, if you gave all 450 players a straight line value, picking 1 & 30 is better than 15 & 16 in the end. Of course we don’t know what the season end ranking of the players will be, the “value” derived from the picks is theoretical.

Aside from that though, it seems like to take anything other than 1-15 would be playing to the whims of ADP. If someone really thinks Tulo is the best first round pick, save Trout; why set KDS with 7 or 8 or 9 first, why not be firm in your pick and take him as early as you can get him? Do you set it at 7, 8, or 9 so that you can pair him up with a player in round 2 with pick 22? A player that might not even be there when you pick.

Straight 1-15 for me and let the KDS fall where it may.

[Navel Lint]

The more I think about it, the more I wonder if getting your KDS is actually a hindrance. Drafting where you want puts you into your comfort zone. I'm not sure some of us would actually draft better outside of our comfort zone. We'd be more likely to take more chances as opposed to the pre-planned safe play.

I'd be all for picking our drafts slots 5 minutes before the draft. Maybe the leagues could be assigned ahead of time, but at the draft pull names out of the hat and let people go sit down at the draft slot they want.

Or just pull the names 1-15 and that's the order. ( but I'd rather pick my own spot )

[DOUGHBOYS]

The more I think about it, the more I wonder if getting your KDS is actually a hindrance. Drafting where you want puts you into your comfort zone. I'm not sure some of us would actually draft better outside of our comfort zone. We'd be more likely to take more chances as opposed to the pre-planned safe play.

I'd be all for picking our drafts slots 5 minutes before the draft. Maybe the leagues could be assigned ahead of time, but at the draft pull names out of the hat and let people go sit down at the draft slot they want.

Or just pull the names 1-15 and that's the order. ( but I'd rather pick my own spot )

How about musical chairs?
That could get pretty rowdy at a live draft!

[JohnP]

I also wouldn't choose Gomez at number two.
He could get suspended for any amount of reasons. He also likes throwing himself around fences and bases. I don't like top picks that do this. I scratch Gomez.

I guess I disagree with you on Gomez. Gomez in prime of career. Has averaged 148 games, 555 ABs, 24 hr, 73 rbi, 88 runs, 37 sbs, .284 ave over the last two years. Those are not quite McCutch numbers but surely worthy of top 5 pick in my opinion. I hear what you are saying about "volatility" but having watched him for quite a few years, it is what makes him tick. I love the passion and aggressiveness. In my mind that aggressiveness leads to stats. The dude is always going to swipe that base when he can. He is going to beat out that infield grounder for a hit. He's never not going to give max effort on an AB. Does it make him more susceptible to missing games than any of the other top 5 considerations? Maybe you are right on that but given the choices in the upper middle section of the draft - for me...it is Gomez.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Not a problem at all, John. At this time of year, we're both right and we're both wrong.
Gomez has stayed healthy and playing the last couple of years.
As far as him being aggressive or passionate.....
There are different layers of being passionate. When I see Dustin Pedroia or Jeter or David Wright play, they exude a passion for the game in what I feel are the right ways.
Gomez has an 'off and on switch'. If feeling he has been wronged or prodded, he turns on that switch and becomes a more aggressive or passionate player.
Is this good?
I suppose it's neither good or bad. At least for him, so far.
Milton Bradley had the same switch. For him it was bad. It led to benchings and injury.
Gomez has done stupid stuff, but hasn't crossed the line (unless your name is Brian McCann) like Bradley did several times.

Everybody has different levels of trust for different players.
Trust maybe the number one element in making the number two Overall pick.
I trust in Andrew McCutchen more than Carlos Gomez.