2015 NFBC Post-Season Hold 'Em Contest Rules

[Greg Ambrosius]

Thanks for all of the great feedback so far on the Post-Season Hold 'Em Contest. This is why we post these things before rolling them out: You guys know best.

I've received a lot of good feedback on the concept of the Post-Season game, which many think will be in demand. Now we just need to keep tweaking those rules. Whether the scoring is exactly the same for the debut Cutline Championship or not won't be determined right away as these are separate products. But we definitely want to get a solid points-based scoring system that is very similar for both contests going forward and that is easy to use by all players. Using something that is familiar to those who already play points-based games makes a lot of sense and is being strongly considered.

When I first started at Krause Publications in 1989 they had a points-based company league that I joined that had the exact same scoring system as Fanduel's, except we added points for saves to make the closers relevant. I understand the suggestion to use something similar to Draft Kings, but in a multiplier format I think those scoring totals would be way too high. Tom and I believe the Fanduel format is better suited to our game and is very easy to learn by new users. What are your thoughts if we considered this scoring format:

NFBC Post-Season Hold 'Em Contest
Hitters
1B = 1 point
2B = 2 points
3B = 3 points
HR = 4 points
RBI = 1 point
R = 1 point
BB = 1 point
SB = 2 points
HBP = 1 point
Out (calculated as at bats - hits) = -.25pt

Pitchers:
W = 4 points
Save = 4 points
ER = -1 point
SO = 1 point
IP = 1 point

We are looking for feedback on all of this, but especially on the Saves points. We definitely want to add that element to the game. At 4 points per save, Greg Holland would have earned 55 points last post-season. I'm not sure this scoring system is strong enough in a full-season league to make closers relevant, so a tweak would definitely need to be done there, but let me know how much you think a Save should be worth in the post-season contest to make owners think about adding a closer to their starting lineup.

We obviously need more feedback on the roster configuration of these teams and whether we want to reduce roster sizes with each following round or if we want to make them smaller than I first suggested and keep them static. Maybe a 16 man roster makes sense, although there's already a suggestion for a much larger roster configuration. We can work on that part shortly, but let's work on the scoring system first.

We definitely want to create a game that appeals to our current users while attracting the millions who play DFS points-style games. We think there could be a good crossover here. Now we just need to nail the format down. Thanks for any and all suggestions and away we go on this new contest.

[ToddZ]

I need to think it through to see if it would work here, but I play on head2head.com. They use a points based system but instead of individual pitchers, you draft the team staff. This would entail one pitching spot per team and could be interesting in terms of deciding to go with a staff likely to sweep or play more games in a series. Whittling down to one staff for the final round would be obvious, but I think it could work.

[King of Queens]

Greg, I believe the FanDuel scoring system is MUCH more appealing to the mass audience. You're on the right track here.

[Deadheadz]

Here is the Draft Kings setup and scoring system:
TEAM ROSTERS
• Rosters will consist of 10 players and must include hitters from at least 3 different MLB teams.
• The 10 roster positions are: P, P, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF
POINT SCORING
• Hitters will accumulate points as follows:
o Single = +3 PTs
o Double = +5 PTs
o Triple = +8 PTs
o Home Run = +10 PTs
o Run Batted In = +2 PTs
o Run = +2 PTs
o Base on Balls = +2 PTs
o Hit By Pitch = +2 PTs
o Stolen Base = +5 PTs
o Caught Stealing = -2 PTs
• Pitchers will accumulate points as follows:
o Inning Pitched = +2.25 PTs
o Strike Out = +2 PTs
o Win = +4 PTs
o Earned Run Allowed = -2 PTs
o Hit Against = -0.6 PTs
o Base on Balls Against = -0.6 PTs
o Hit Batsman = -0.6 PTs
o Complete Game = +2.5 PTs
o Complete Game Shut Out = +2.5 PTs
o No Hitter = +5 PTs
• *NOTE: Hitting statistics for Pitchers will not be counted, and Pitching statistics for Hitters will not be counted.

Something to consider about DraftKings scoring is they give you just 2 pitchers. If the NFBC post season contest requires 6-9 starting pitchers, it will shift the balance toward pitching even more so.

It's great to tweak the rules and thank you for requesting our input. No matter how the points are awarded, I would like to see the balance between hitting and pitching maintained as it is in roto.

No one (but the guy who wins, I guess) wants to see the top prize go to a team with great pitching stats but awful hitting stats. Right?


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[Cocktails and Dreams]

Keep in mind that in daily fantasy baseball your pitchers are pitching. In this, you will have most games where your arm is not going. Perhaps that would be enough to keep it simple and go with the fan duel type system without weight? Still might slightly weigh towards pitching, but in playoff contest there is no draft, so it is all relative. Far more important to get a good balance before the launch of the cutline championship, where there are actual drafts.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Keep in mind that in daily fantasy baseball your pitchers are pitching. In this, you will have most games where your arm is not going. Perhaps that would be enough to keep it simple and go with the fan duel type system without weight? Still might slightly weigh towards pitching, but in playoff contest there is no draft, so it is all relative. Far more important to get a good balance before the launch of the cutline championship, where there are actual drafts.

Agreed. I think this scoring system can work for a short contest where everyone is picking from the same pool of players. That's what happens in DFS. But we'll really have to run the numbers and tweak the scoring to make sure pitchers have similar value in this points system format as they would in a Roto format for the debut NFBC Cutline Championship. With that being a draft, we want to make sure we have the same type of balance of hitters vs. pitchers as a Roto draft has. It's time to perfect Excel and run some numbers to improve that contest.

[gsjanoff]

This is why I suggested we lock down the roster size piece of this first. I happen to like the Fanduel scoring and would be in favor of using that or something very similar, as its extremely easy for someone to understand, but yet a new element is added with your contest with the round multipliers.

As was already brought up though, its important to figure out a concept where at the end of the tournament, if 1000 points are achieved by the winner, that the winners points were somewhere in the realm of 480 to 520 on pitching and the same on hitting. We don't want someone winning with a roster where his pitching scored 900 and his hitting scored 100, or at least I would not want to see that.

I personally like the concept of sticking with the same roster requirement that you have for the full season games, forcing everyone to make tough choices each round as to who to have active and who to have on your bench. Those who win are likely to have active those same players I have on the bench. At least that is how it works in full season anyway, as those are always the guys with the best stats on my team. The ones who aren't active.

I do think that my round 2 concept works as well. Whether round 3 or round 4 is perfect, is certainly up for debate, and can, and probably should be tweaked.

[Greg Ambrosius]

In this Post-Season Contest we're all picking from the same pool of players and filling up the same required positions, but I agree that we do want a good balance of scoring between hitters and pitchers. I think this format does that, but let's look at the numbers from last post-season using this scoring format:

NFBC Post-Season Hold 'Em Contest
Hitters
1B = 1 point
2B = 2 points
3B = 3 points
HR = 4 points
RBI = 1 point
R = 1 point
BB = 1 point
SB = 2 points
HBP = 1 point
Out (calculated as at bats - hits) = -.25pt

Pitchers:
W = 4 points
Save = 4 points
ER = -1 point
SO = 1 point
IP = 1 point

Obviously the key here is picking the right players from the teams that are going to make it to the World Series and picking them on your initial roster. That's where the multipliers will add up. Last year the Giants played 17 post-season games, so Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt played 17 games, compared to Mike Trout's 3 games and Bryce Harper's 4 games. That's a big, big key to winning this contest.

And then you need the right pitchers, too, because every post-season one pitcher seems to dominate. Last year it was Madison Bumgarner and he was the outlier in this scoring format as he finished the post-season with 4 wins, 1 Save, 52.2 IP, 45 Ks and only 6 Earned Runs. It was a performance for the ages as he earned 111.67 points in this scoring format. Nobody earned more than 65 points.

So throw him out, but let's look at the top post-season scorers from 2014:

Pitchers:
Madison Bumgarner - 111.67
Greg Holland - 53.0
Wade Davis - 41.33
Yordano Ventura - 34.33
James Shields - 32.0
Kelvin Herrera - 32.0
Santiago Casilla - 30.0
Tim Hudson - 27.0
Clayton Kershaw - 20.67

Obviously these are just total points for the entire post-season and not broken down into Rounds 1, 2 and 3 with multipliers. But you get a sense out of how many points pitchers can score in the post-season as innings add up. Now let's compare that to the hitters:

Hitters:
Hunter Pence - 65.0
Eric Hosmer - 56.75
Pablo Sandoval - 50.75
Alex Gordon - 48.25
Matt Carpenter - 44.5
Mike Moustakas - 44.0
Alcides Escobar - 41.50
Brandon Belt - 38.25
Brandon Crawford - 34.5
Joe Panik - 33.0
Gregor Blanco - 32.75

That's just a quick look at the hitters, but it looks pretty solid. Again, this doesn't include any multipliers; this is just total post-season scoring for the top hitters. It seems rather balanced for the post-season contest, but I'm interested in any and all feedback.

Last year two Wild Card teams made it to the World Series, so it would have been one helluva post-season contest. It's not easy to pick the right players from the right teams, especially with that one Wild Card game in each league now in the mix. This could be fun. Hopefully we can get the scoring down and then we'll work on the team structures.

Thoughts on the scoring so far?

[gsjanoff]

I don't know how you can do a true test of scoring without locking down what the line-up slots will be first.

It needs to be determined how many of each position will be required, to truly determine whether you have a potential optimal balance between hitting and pitching points. I mean a typical fan duel line-up doesn't work as 1 pitcher and 8 hitters, logically speaking would tilt towards hitters in any 7 game series, unless you have that rare situation where your pitcher goes 3 times. And also FD doesn't include relief pitchers, so clearly since you have scoring for saves in your example, you must be thinking more than 1 pitcher.

Yes you have to pick the right line-up and yes there are multipliers, and yes the hitters can be expected to play way more games, but I think you still have to determine mathematically what the balance will be between hitters and pitchers.

Can you run some #'s as an example and post them as to what it would like like with a typical 23 man NFBC roster? Dont worry about the reserves for now. Just see if it balances out scoring wise.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Gregg, I originally proposed a roster of 22 players using just 1 Catcher, but that may be too much for the post-season game. Maybe 16 is a better mix: I'll start with the idea of: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, UT, OF, OF, OF, OF, P, P, P, P, P, P. That's 10 hitters and 6 pitchers, rather than 14 hitters and 9 pitchers in the NFBC.

Sure, I can run some numbers from last season and show how this would have played out at both roster sizes. I would need to adjust the minimum players per team and maximum players per team for each round if we went with a roster size of 16 players. I'll try to figure that out next week as well and show some examples.

We ran some numbers this afternoon for the Cutline Championship and will definitely need to tweak the scoring from the post-season game, but we're close. I think Saves will need to be worth more in the season-long game to make closers relevant, and for all pitchers we need to negate .25 of a point for each hit, walk and HBP allowed. That really brings hitters and pitchers in line. I think we can get this scoring where player values are pretty similar to Roto values. Then after that we need to create quick drafts, the optimal scoring lineup setup, and a way for easy in-season roster expansion via monthly FAAB. This could be a good game with little in-season effort.

Thanks for the feedback all and keep it coming.

[gsjanoff]

Sounds like you need 2 sets of rules. 1 for the cut line and 1 for the playoffs. If that's what you are suggesting, I agree.

For the playoffs, I don't think you need to subtract .25 for hits, walks, and HBP, if you go with the standard fan duel pitcher scoring to keep that aspect simple.

You do need to figure out saves, since fan duel doesn't allow for those today. A good pitcher on fan duel will normally score between 18-22, and sometimes even higher. If you round that to an average of 20, and assume that an SP can get 2 starts, and the most a relief pitcher can realistically get is 4 saves, likely no more than 4 innings, and maybe 8 K's, it seems to me a save should be a minimum of 6 and possibly 7 in order to place RP's on equal footing, otherwise, I would imagine, everyone would use all starters.

As for your roster size, I get the idea of 1 catcher, as it hard to find 2, but forcing us to use 2 not only sticks with the general concept that you have year round in your other baseball games, but also forces us to make tough choices. I like that concept starting out considering we are likely to be limited to 2 or 3 players per team in round 1.

And I also like the idea of having a bench as well, as players do get hurt in 7 game series.

I think this should be a tough competition, as that is tradition for the NFBC, but yet easy to understand, which would be where the fan duel scoring element comes in to play.