Arizona Fall League Scouting Report

[Greg Ambrosius]

It was great to spend some time last week in Phoenix at the Arizona Fall League Symposium and to see NFBC guys like Dave Potts, Richard Tempkin, Todd Zola, Perry Van Hook, Gregg Doyle, Roy Ericcson and others. We all started our scouting reports a bit early this year thanks to seeing the top prospects in baseball out there.

I think it's safe to say that this is a good crop of prospects this year, but nothing quite like the past few years. I mean, it was just a few years ago when Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were on the same AFL team, batting second and third. Now that was cool. Even last year there were 63 different players who appeared in the AFL who spent some time in the majors last year. That's a huge number. Some of those guys last year included: Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Byron Buxton, Greg Bird (MVP), Dalton Pompey and Rusney Castillo, just to name a few.

When you go to the AFL, you can sit right behind home plate at any game and see these guys up close. And when 63 of them reach the majors the next year it's a fantastic scouting trip. I highly recommend it.

Okay, I'll quickly give you my takes on some of the top prospects I saw last week and hopefully others can chime in. Here we go:

Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates: He's not having a great AFL season (.164-1-11-2), so he didn't start in the Rising Stars Game, but this 2013 first round pick (9th overall) sure looks to be on the verge of something special. He pinch-hit in the Rising Stars Game and laced a double to right-center field. At 6'3", 200, this 20-year-old sure looks like he has the size and swing to make an impact in the game. He hit .307-7-54 with 20 SBs in 121 games at Hi-A Bradenton before hitting .360 in six games at Double-A Bradenton. Look for him to start the year at Double-A before earning a promotion to Triple-A. There's no rush here, but don't be surprised if Meadows is in the majors by 2017 for good.

Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals: I didn't see him pitch, but Jim Callis of Baseball America called him the best starting pitcher in the league. Then over the weekend he received a 50-game suspension for drug use, so he will be sidelined a bit. But keep an eye on Reyes, who is another great Cardinals' pitching prospect. He can hit 100 mph with his fastball, he has a great curveball and he reached Double-A at the age of 20. At Hi-A Palm Beach last year, he struck out 96 batters in 63.2 IP with 31 walks, and then at Double-A Springfield he struck out 52 batters in only 34.2 IP with 18 walks. That's a 13.50 K/9 rate if you're scoring at home. Pretty impressive, but the suspension is concerning.

Nick Burdi, RHP, Twins: This 22-year-old was as impressive as anyone I saw last week. He struck out the side in 12 pitches with a fastball that hit the high 90s and a killer slider. He could be the Twins' future closer and it could happen soon. Callis says he hits 100 mph pretty regularly. Last year at Double-A Chattanooga, Burdi struck out 54 in 43.2 IP, but he walked 32. He had only two saves in 30 games and had a 4.32 ERA. He actually started the year at Hi-A Fort Myers, where he struck out 29 in 20 IP with only three walks, two saves and a 2.25 ERA. Expect him to return to Double-A to start the year, with a promotion likely during the year. In the AFL, he has 6 Ks in 5 IP with 0 runs, 0 walks and only two hits allowed.

Ray Black, RHP, Giants: I saw this 2011 7th round pick once and he just brings the smoke. He hit 104 mph on the gun yesterday and was the hardest thrower in the AFL. He just has trouble with his control and in staying healthy. At Hi-A San Jose last year, the 25-year-old struck out 51 in 25 IP with 25 walks. Those numbers are insane. He's old for that level and wasn't a high draft pick or even a closer last year, but it's hard to discount the speed. He could be fun to watch in the minors next year as he could be a 7th or 8th inning type of setup guy.

Wilson Contreras, C, Cubs: Unfortunately he pulled a hamstring running down the first base line the first day I was there and didn't play again. But Callis called him the best catching prospect in all of baseball with the most promising bat. He was hitting .283 with 3 HRs and 8 RBIs in the AFL after hitting .333-8-75-4 at Double-A Tennessee. A promotion to Triple-A makes sense, but don't be surprised to see Contreras in the majors at some point as Callis believes he could be the catcher of the future in Chicago.

Sean Manaea, LHP, A's: He started the Rising Stars Game on Saturday night and looked damn good. During four AFL starts, he's struck out 17 batters in 16 IP with only four walks. The 34th overall pick of the Royals in 2013, Manaea spent time last year at four different teams because of the Zobrist trade with Oakland and he struck out 90 batters in 74.1 IP with 26 walks. At 6'5", 235, he looks to have the size and skills to be a No. 3 or 4 SP in the majors soon enough.

Dylan Bundy, SP, Orioles: He pitched on Friday when we were there, starting the game and being limited to just one inning. He has done that twice now as he continues to try to comeback from injury. He had good stuff, but he really didn't fool too many hitters (1 K in 2 IP) and it's obvious that he needs to build up arm strength. But it was good to see him on the mound again.

Josh Hader, LHP, Brewers: Acquired from the Astros in the Carlos Gomez trade, this guy popped out for me. He pitched three innings on Thursday and struck out four as he retired 9 of the 10 batters he faced. His last pitch reached 98 mph and he had solid command with a killer curveball. The Brewers haven't had a lefty hit 98 since reliever Dan Plesac, so this was fun to see. In 5 AFL appearances, he has 15 Ks and 4 BBs in 10 IP with a 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. At Double-A last year, he had 119 Ks in 94 IP with 35 walks. I'm not sure the Brewers have a better arm in the system right now and he looks like a potential starter for this rebuilding franchise.

Clint Frazier, OF, Indians: Picked 5th overall by the Indians in 2013, Frazier looks like a gritty, Lenny Dykstra-type player, but I'm surprised he was picked ahead of someone like Austin Meadows. He can be productive, but then he can also strike out three times like he did on Saturday night. He's hitting .323-3-8-3 in the AFL as he has shown off his speed and his power throughout. In 2015, he hit .285-16-72 with 15 SBs at Hi-A Lynchburg. He has a high ceiling, but he still needs a couple of years in the minors before the Indians find out if he can be an everyday player. I like his makeup (he is a strong dude), but we'll have to see if he can corral it all and reach his full potential.

Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Blue Jays: He's definitely the biggest guy in the AFL, which is saying something because there's some big dudes playing there this year. At 6'4", 245, Tellez was hitting .283-3-13 in the AFL after hitting .289-14-77-5 at Class A. He's only 20, so he has time to grow, but few hitters have the raw power this guy has. He also has big holes, as his 84 Ks last year will attest to. But he's big and has an easy, powerful left-handed swing that would play well in Toronto.

Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees: I'd be surprised if Sanchez isn't at least the backup C in New York at some point next year. He spent most of the season at Double-A Trenton (.262-12-36-6), but was solid in 35 games at Triple-A (.295-6-26) before making a September appearance in New York. I think his bat can play already, but he's not the best defensive catcher around. That being said, I saw him throw a dart to second to nail a basestealer and his arm is legit. At 6'2", 230, he might be too big to catch. But at 22, he's solid and the Yankees seem to look for offense behind the plate more than defense, so maybe Sanchez finds a way to take over sooner than expected.

I liked Adam Brett Walker (OF) of the Twins, Mac Williamson (OF) of the Giants and Christian Arroyo (SS) of the Giants. Lucas Sims of the Braves also started the Rising Stars Game and looked solid. Good, good prospects all around.

Hope that helps. And I hope another 63 players from this year's AFL class reaches the majors next year. That would be cool.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Bless you for bringing baseball talk back to these Boards.
Good job, Greg.

[ToddZ]

Yankees just dealt JR Murphy for Aaron Hicks which could open a spot for Sanchez in the Bronx, not to mention cover a Brett Gardner deal.

I stayed a couple extra days and saw Jurickson Profar snap out of his doldrums as he was spraying liners all over the place early this week. He's only playing DH in games but is taking infield (without throwing) before the games.

[Greg Ambrosius]

This isn't AFL news, but it is baseball related so I'm posting it here!! Here's an industry mock draft from MLB.com:

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2015/11/1 ... pert-mock/

Ray Flowers took Carlos Correa 4th overall. It's a worthy debate indeed. Have at it boys.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Awesome. Baseball news.
Lately, this has become a 'complain here' box or 'quoth the politician' place.
Blecccchh!

I think Correa will go as high as THE number one pick in some DC Championship drafts. I doubt that he goes that high in the big money drafts unless a Maverick or two thinks that highly of him.
On the other hand, it is hard to take these mocks very seriously. There is no money involved and Flowers just wants to let everybody know that he hearts Correa.
Nothing lost, nothing gained.

Correa belongs in the first round. There is the chance that he could have fooled us with his poise and numbers, much like Hosmer did a few years ago.
But, it's a chance I am willing to take. He is batting in the middle of a lineup, on a team that swings first and asks questions later.
There is not much to NOT like about him.

[Gekko]

Ray Flowers took Carlos Correa 4th overall. It's a worthy debate indeed. Have at it boys.

haha!!! industry mock = let me make a controversial pick to get my name out there (ie publicity). new year, same strategy

[Gekko]

I think Correa will go as high as THE number one pick in some DC Championship drafts. I doubt that he goes that high in the big money drafts unless a Maverick or two thinks that highly of him.
On the other hand, it is hard to take these mocks very seriously. There is no money involved and Flowers just wants to let everybody know that he hearts Correa.
Nothing lost, nothing gained.

Correa belongs in the first round. There is the chance that he could have fooled us with his poise and numbers, much like Hosmer did a few years ago.
But, it's a chance I am willing to take. He is batting in the middle of a lineup, on a team that swings first and asks questions later.
There is not much to NOT like about him.

1. please be in my league if you are taking him #1
2. i would not be surprised if he hit the same or less hr next year. i won't give away the "smoking gun" but i will tell you its found via data analytics. i will reveal it AFTER i'm done drafting though. it will be a surprise for folks who are still in drafts after i'm done

[DOUGHBOYS]

I think Correa will go as high as THE number one pick in some DC Championship drafts. I doubt that he goes that high in the big money drafts unless a Maverick or two thinks that highly of him.
On the other hand, it is hard to take these mocks very seriously. There is no money involved and Flowers just wants to let everybody know that he hearts Correa.
Nothing lost, nothing gained.

Correa belongs in the first round. There is the chance that he could have fooled us with his poise and numbers, much like Hosmer did a few years ago.
But, it's a chance I am willing to take. He is batting in the middle of a lineup, on a team that swings first and asks questions later.
There is not much to NOT like about him.

1. please be in my league if you are taking him #1
2. i would not be surprised if he hit the same or less hr next year. i won't give away the "smoking gun" but i will tell you its found via data analytics. i will reveal it AFTER i'm done drafting though. it will be a surprise for folks who are still in drafts after me

Uh huh.
You've gone from saying top six in every large draft to this.
$$$$ALERT$$$$
Mid-season form

[Gekko]

Uh huh.
You've gone from saying top six in every large draft to this.
$$$$ALERT$$$$
Mid-season form

assuming a good spring, he will go top 6 in every draft. i didn't say i'd be taking him!!!!! you will though (at least top 7)

[DOUGHBOYS]

Uh huh.
You've gone from saying top six in every large draft to this.
$$$$ALERT$$$$
Mid-season form

assuming a good spring, he will go top 6 in every draft. i didn't say i'd be taking him!!!!! you will though (at least top 7)

Yes, I will

[DOUGHBOYS]

I want to bring up another name....Kyle Schwarber.

His lack of defense manifested itself widely when playing against the Mets in the playoffs.
His bat is for real.
BUT, and it's a big BUT, where do the Cubs put him?
They don't trust him at catcher and have a great prospect catching in the system.
They can't put him at first base. Rizzo hasn't played another position.
They can't dh him. National League.
And he was a butcher in both left and right field.

We draft players based on their hitting ability. But, to showcase that hitting ability, especially with catcher positionality that Schwarber will have next year, a place has to be found on the field for him to benefit his drfters.
So, what do you do if you're the Cubs brain trust?
Play him at catcher and bite the bullet?
Left Field?
Right Field?
Trade him?

He has gone in the top 35 of both early drafts.
Too early?

[Bronx Yankees]

I want to bring up another name....Kyle Schwarber.

His lack of defense manifested itself widely when playing against the Mets in the playoffs.
His bat is for real.
BUT, and it's a big BUT, where do the Cubs put him?
They don't trust him at catcher and have a great prospect catching in the system.
They can't put him at first base. Rizzo hasn't played another position.
They can't dh him. National League.
And he was a butcher in both left and right field.

We draft players based on their hitting ability. But, to showcase that hitting ability, especially with catcher positionality that Schwarber will have next year, a place has to be found on the field for him to benefit his drfters.
So, what do you do if you're the Cubs brain trust?
Play him at catcher and bite the bullet?
Left Field?
Right Field?
Trade him?

He has gone in the top 35 of both early drafts.
Too early?

Dan - I'll take a swing at this, but then I have a question for you.

I think Schwarber belongs as a top pick, somewhere in the 3rd round (although he is the type of player that others will like more than me and he'll probably be on very few if any of my teams). I also can see him going higher in the live drafts. His bat plays, and given how weak the Catcher position is these days, where he went in the first two drafts seems reasonable to me. I forgot who first said draft the skills, not the current role, but I think it is true in this case. If he stays on the Cubs, he will play. The Cubs knew he was a terrible defender, but in the biggest play-off games, he started. Thus, the Cubs already have determined - when it counted the most - that his bat more than offsets his glove. I'd be surprised if they came to a different conclusion next year (especially when they still may have to battle the Cards and Pirates to get into the playoffs). I would expect him to get some time behind the plate and some time in the OF. I also would expect them to dedicate all of the coaching resources available to try to turn him into a better OF - I don't think we can assume yet that he'll never improve as an OF if that is the only way he plays regularly. While he may be yanked late in certain games for defensive reasons and occasionally get off-days, I would be surprised if he plays appreciably less than most other starting catchers (not named Posey and Perez).

Ideally, Schwarber should be in the American League. Trading him for starting pitching seems like a possible solution. Whether an AL team would be willing to part with an attractive enough pitcher for the Cubs to give up Schwarber remains to be seen. Importantly, if he is traded to an AL team, his bat should be in the lineup every day barring injury. Thus, while his value might be higher in the AL, I do think he'll play enough in the NL to put up nice numbers.

Now my question for you. Up above, you indicate that Correa is a Top 7 pick this year, and perhaps you and others rate him even higher. How high would you draft Correa if he was an OF and not a SS? Still Top 7? Top 15? 2nd rounder? I'm curious how much, if at all, the "position scarcity" piece impacts Correa's ranking. (In the interests of full disclosure, right now I do not have him in my Top 10.) In a way, Correa and Schwarber are the position scarcity guys up high. The first couple of rounds probably will be dominated by outfielders, corner infielders and pitchers (and two speedy 2B). How much of a bump up do Correa and Schwarber get, and deserve, for SS and C eligibility? Interesting questions as we head into drafting season. I guess a related question is that there were a ton of stud young players last year. It seems like all or most of them are going to be drafted as if they will continue improving on a straight trajectory. Some will, but some are bound to struggle and regress. One of the biggest challenges this season is where you slot guys with one full year or less of strong performance amongst all-stars who have been doing it for years. Love this stuff!

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

I love this stuff too, Mike!
And it's great to be talking baseball as meant to be!

First, Correa....
He would lose a round if he were an outfielder only. Think of Starling Marte as a shortstop. Both have the skills to be 30/30 players (apologies, Mark).
Marte has more experience on his side. He has shown flashes of being something special, a little in the Springer or Pollock vein.
Correa's name is in that mix.
His positionality plays a huge part. There simply isn't another shortstop playing today, like him.
At least from our perspective right now.

I've drafted him in the seventh spot and the 20th spot. Felt comfortable both times.
There is a certain satisfaction in taking, even reaching, for a position and player rolled in one that is personally liked.
For myself, yes, position plays a large part for Correa, just as it will for Schwarber.

My reckoning is that the Cubs have a small problem with Schwarber. Yes, his bat is for real. And usually offense wins over defense. But, the Cubs have more outfield kids coming and covet Alex Gordon as well.
With Soler already taking an outfield spot and the Cubs needing a center fielder, Schwarber's glove is a puzzle.
AND, we haven't brought up that Schwarber hit two homers and hit .143 vs. lefties last year.
I just can't take a strangeglove that high in a draft who has those kind of credentials vs. lefties.
Even in finding him a defensive spot, platoon is written all over him.
A trade would benefit his owners greatly.

[Gekko]

If schwarber is assured PT, I can see him being taken 2nd round in every draft come March

[Teufel Hunden]

I love this stuff too, Mike!
And it's great to be talking baseball as meant to be!

First, Correa....
He would lose a round if he were an outfielder only. Think of Starling Marte as a shortstop. Both have the skills to be 30/30 players (apologies, Mark).
Marte has more experience on his side. He has shown flashes of being something special, a little in the Springer or Pollock vein.
Correa's name is in that mix.
His positionality plays a huge part. There simply isn't another shortstop playing today, like him.
At least from our perspective right now.

I've drafted him in the seventh spot and the 20th spot. Felt comfortable both times.
There is a certain satisfaction in taking, even reaching, for a position and player rolled in one that is personally liked.
For myself, yes, position plays a large part for Correa, just as it will for Schwarber.

The most obvious fit for Astros team construction and lots of money available for FA appears to be Chris Davis. If so, I wonder what Correa hitting 3rd in front of Davis does to his value. Less SB and a boost everywhere else would be my guess.

[DOUGHBOYS]

If schwarber is assured PT, I can see him being taken 2nd round in every draft come March

Agreed.
It's that 'IF' that bothers me.
His glove and splits work against that assurance.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Any ruling on this post, Greg?

Greg/Tom,

Can we get a position eligibility ruling on the following players? Thanks

Adam Rosales TEX
Don Kelly MIA
Donovan Solano MIA
Doug Bernier MIN
Joaquin Arias SFG
Matt Duffy HOU
Dean Anna STL
Elias Diaz PIT
Steve Lombardozzi PIT
Gary Sanchez NYY
Kyle Waldrop CIN

[Yah Mule]

If schwarber is assured PT, I can see him being taken 2nd round in every draft come March

Agreed.
It's that 'IF' that bothers me.
His glove and splits work against that assurance.

Not much is said about his splits, but that 44% K rate and .481 OPS V lefties is pretty glaring.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Any ruling on this post, Greg?

Greg/Tom,

Can we get a position eligibility ruling on the following players? Thanks

Adam Rosales TEX
Don Kelly MIA
Donovan Solano MIA
Doug Bernier MIN
Joaquin Arias SFG
Matt Duffy HOU
Dean Anna STL
Elias Diaz PIT
Steve Lombardozzi PIT
Gary Sanchez NYY
Kyle Waldrop CIN

I can look this list over today and post. This is the last item we're working on with the draft room right now, getting the position eligibility for each player finalized, so this is good timing. Thanks. I think John Pausma sent me a list with a few additional names as well. I'll get this done.

[NorCalAtlFan]

oye veh, we're going to crush a guy over 50 ab's. we've already determined he is a platoon bat? don't forget he hit .190 at home too.
full disclosure, i took schwarber in the pre mature draft. and as i seriously prep, i'm not sure where i'll have him, but it is comical reading the analysis on him.

dan, i like correa better where you took him in the 2nd draft than the first, but i get it. marc's a hall of famer, so his analysis is the gospel, but i lean towards your view.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I don't let the 50 at bats sway me as far as Schwarber is concerned.
Although with Maddon's propensity to be smarter than others, I can see him as a platoon player.
Truth be told, what worried me more than the Numerish is the visual of his swing getting longer and longer as the season progressed.
To tell the truth, I haven't figured him out.
I wouldn't be surprised if he's the first catcher taken in some drafts and I wouldn't be surprised if he falls to the fifth or sixth rounds in others.

[NorCalAtlFan]

you're the one that brought up the numbers vs lefties.....

and i get it. huge swing! we'll revisit next october(or august, assuming that's when the 2017 premature will start)

[DOUGHBOYS]

you're the one that brought up the numbers vs lefties.....

and i get it. huge swing! we'll revisit next october(or august, assuming that's when the 2017 premature will start)

I did bring it up, guilty.

Truly, a wild card!

[Yah Mule]

oye veh, we're going to crush a guy over 50 ab's. we've already determined he is a platoon bat? don't forget he hit .190 at home too.
full disclosure, i took schwarber in the pre mature draft. and as i seriously prep, i'm not sure where i'll have him, but it is comical reading the analysis on him.

dan, i like correa better where you took him in the 2nd draft than the first, but i get it. marc's a hall of famer, so his analysis is the gospel, but i lean towards your view.

I think the reason there's barely any conversation regarding analysis of players on this board is because people become so incredibly defensive over nothing. Nobody crushed Schwarber or determined anything about him and we all understand small sample sizes. I don't think anybody here regards any other person's word as gospel. I don't view my fellow competitors here as being that suggestible.

[DOUGHBOYS]

oye veh, we're going to crush a guy over 50 ab's. we've already determined he is a platoon bat? don't forget he hit .190 at home too.
full disclosure, i took schwarber in the pre mature draft. and as i seriously prep, i'm not sure where i'll have him, but it is comical reading the analysis on him.

dan, i like correa better where you took him in the 2nd draft than the first, but i get it. marc's a hall of famer, so his analysis is the gospel, but i lean towards your view.

I think the reason there's barely any conversation regarding analysis of players on this board is because people become so incredibly defensive over nothing. Nobody crushed Schwarber or determined anything about him and we all understand small sample sizes. I don't think anybody here regards any other person's word as gospel. I don't view my fellow competitors here as being that suggestible.

I try to be like a boxer.
Boxers can't worry about who is right.
When worrying too much about who is or who is not right, they get hit with a left.