Todd Zola Will Chat Today At 2 PM EST

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:51 am

how would you rank these 2nd yr pitchers as draftable by you ?

Hamels / Verlander / Weaver / Hill / Papelbon ?

And these injury risks ?

Sheets / Harden / Unit / Patterson ?

Hamels - Verlander - Papelbon - Weaver - Hill

Hamels clear cut top choice - sick second half and looks healthy. I am concerned about Verlander's work load. Papelbon based on additional experience plus the lower pressure working in a rotation with Schilling and Dice-K. Weaver is due for a correction as he was a very lucky young man last season (he's good, don't get me wrong). Hill is intriguing due to that K-rate, but I need to see more of him first. His placement is admittedly tempered by the fact I have not seen him work as much as the others.

Sheets -- Harden -- Patterson -- Unit

When "healthy" last season, Sheets skills proved to be very much intact. Harden over Patterson if they were both healthy but I would be more inclined to draft Patterson as the risk versus his draft spot is less. Sorry, but a 40+ guy with a balky back is not my cup of tea.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:56 am

Since im a firm believer of getting two closers i decided to go with KROD too.So i got the two best closers in the game and got the saves out of the way.When i came up again with my 5th and 6th picks i was able to grab SHEFF and Zimmerman , two guys that should have been off the board.Just to give you a better idea of my start, my 1st pick at 15 was Teixeira and my 2nd pick at 16 was VLAD.

MY Question is , do you think this was crazy and what would you have done in that spot.

Question 2 , have you fiqured out yet where you would like too draft. thanks EDDIE G Crazy? No. Would I have done the same closer strategy even if I wanted two? Doubtful. You have the top 2 projected closers. A couple years ago, Bob Wickman and Chad Cordero led their respective leagues in saves. My personal preference is to go for the middle tier. It is going to be hard for you to GET PROFIT from your closers where you drafted them. There WILL BE closers drafted later that will get profit. But you're the one cashing the checks and I'm the one sending them to Greg so there is no way I'm calling it crazy.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:57 am

Todd,

Are there any players darfted after the 20th round that will turn in top 100 performances this year? If so, who do you think will?

Also, non fantasy related, who do you like to win world series?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:01 am

As for my ADP, I'm torn between #1, #6 and #11.

#1 is obvious where I would go.

#6 I would hope for Crawford but be OK with someone like ARod.

#11 is incredibly enticing. Chances are someone from Vlad, Beltran, M-Cab will be there and that is a position I could get profit from one of those guys. Then I like the SS available with the return pick.

Odd as this may seem, right now, my KDS would be something like

11,10,12,6,7,1,8,9,13,14,15,5,4,3,2

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:03 am

Todd, I love to give you a hard time. Probably because you take the ribbing the best. What I like about your approach is your always open to

new ideas. You did a nice piece of work on past drafts. Have you seen any trends since you wrote that?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:05 am

Are there any players darfted after the 20th round that will turn in top 100 performances this year? If so, who do you think will?

Also, non fantasy related, who do you like to win world series? Are there some? Yes. Who are they? I'm a numbers guy who also uses scouting and gut feel, but no scouting and or gut feel can take a guy from 300 to 100. Chances are it will be a guy that gets a role change (becomes a closer) or get more playing time than we anticipate at this point.

As for the World Series, I'm Boston born and bred so I that has to be my choice. It's the law.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:12 am

I love to give you a hard time. Probably because you take the ribbing the best. What I like about your approach is your always open to

new ideas. You did a nice piece of work on past drafts. Have you seen any trends since you wrote that? Last question before I call it a day -- but you guys (and gals) know I won't be too hard to find...

The biggest trend I have seen is speed is going earlier. As much as I would love to contend it is because we have FINALLY convinced everyone of its proper value, the reason is more likely there are still a significant contingent of scarcity drafters and presently, the top SS steal a ton of bases. It wasn't that long ago that the top-4 SS were ARod, Nomar, Jeter and Tejada -- much more power. Throw in a Jeff Kent and even Biggio and scarcity drafters had a power base.

The trend I see this year is pitching and catching is being drafted earlier, my opinion because the player pool has a smaller top tier, a smaller crappy tier and a huge middle section. So you look at what's available and see a lot of hitters you like hence feel comfortable taking pitching and catching earlier than normal.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:15 am

Thanks everyone, especially to all those with kind words about my weekly forum essay. I may not respond to everyone personally (which I should) but please be aware I appreciate your thoughts.

Now back to the day job....

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:57 am

I apologize I wasn't here to say thank you to Todd for taking the time to chat. I was in a two-hour meeting and was only able to escape once briefly. So thanks to Todd for the chat today and I'm sure we'll be seeing him around the boards quite a bit going forward.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 10:01 am

I ALSO AGREE with Todd that picks 4, 3 , and 2 will be my last three.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:48 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I ALSO AGREE with Todd that picks 4, 3 , and 2 will be my last three. That is ok, please take them I would gladly take anything from 1-7

Spy

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 12:05 pm

2, 3, and 4 are indeed challenging.

AmericanDreams · Post by **AmericanDreams** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:15 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: Can you explain where you have Utley ranked and why? I think picking Utley based on position scarcity is a mistake in rd 1, and will set your team a little behind. I have Utley ranked about #20 when you factor in his position.

I think two things are happening.

A. There are some VERY optimistic projections out there

B. Since the drop off is SO HUGE, many think they will gain a big advantage by rostering the clear cut best 2B.

With respect to A, don't get me wrong, Utley is a wonderful player, but historically, players that hit at his level regress the following year -- even if they are in his age bracket. Plus as Jeff mentioned, what really makes him valuable is the high teens steals. Drop that by 5 or 10 and his value takes a bit of a nosedive.

With regards to B, I hate to let a nice anecdotal argument get in the way of the numbers, and my numbers say Utley is about #20. [/QUOTE]I know the chat is over, but how in the dickens can Utley be 20? Todd's numbers are so much more advanced than anything I could come up with, so I'm sure it's just me not getting it as opposed to Todd being wrong. Still, everything I have studied in regards to positional scarcity tells me that Utley is extremely valuable.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 12:13 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I ALSO AGREE with Todd that picks 4, 3 , and 2 will be my last three. Why? No challenging, just picking brains.

In the first round, the world is your oyster. In round 2 & 3, there will still be top 30/40 talent. Is it the gap between the beginning of round 3 and the end of round 4?

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 12:49 am

Iwould like 5,6,7, 1, . To me after Puljos their is 6 guys with major value, Soranio,Howard ,Crawford, Arod,Reyes ,and Santana.One of these guys i dont love , so seven could go wrong for me.BUT if im picking 5 or 6 i will get a guy with number two value , then be ahead on the turn.My next group because the players value are very close would be 10, 11 ,12,and 13 . Then 9, 8 , 4, 3, 2, . tweaking it a little as we go 14 and 15 would be my last pick , dont like the turn on end of 3 and beginning of 4. Could change my mind tomorrow, looks good right now.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 1:00 am

I agree with you. I have always been a bit more comfortable in the middle. Right now (subject to whim) I have my KDS at 6,7,5,8,9,10, then swing to the earlier picks, then 11-15 as my least favorite. I can however make compelling arguments, especially over the first five or six rounds, on how to be successful early, middle or late.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:14 am

I know the chat is over, but how in the dickens can Utley be 20? Todd's numbers are so much more advanced than anything I could come up with, so I'm sure it's just me not getting it as opposed to Todd being wrong. Still, everything I have studied in regards to positional scarcity tells me that Utley is extremely valuable.

I trust the numbers as opposed to intuition. Some may be I have somewhat tempered numbers (I have him regressing a little from last season). But the scarcity effect can be quantified and it is my not so humble opinion that the untuitive bump he is given is greater than the numbers warrant.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:20 am

Why? No challenging, just picking brains.

In the first round, the world is your oyster. In round 2 & 3, there will still be top 30/40 talent. Is it the gap between the beginning of round 3 and the end of round 4?

Three things can happen with every pick.

1. You get profit

2. You get a loss

3. You break even

With Pujols at 1, worst case (unless he gets a fluke injury) is you break even.

I see the potential choices at 2-4 all high risk high reward -- Reyes and Soriano front and center. I'll take my risks later. I'm willing to lose out on the potential that Reyes or Soriano repeat in exchange for what I consider to be a less risky but solid foundation.

I like 6 because there are two players I would be more than happy to take there, assuming one or both are available. Am I willing to risk both are gone?

I LOVE 11-13 because at this time, I can see as many as 5 of my top-10 players still on the board plus I like the array of talent that will likely be available in Round 2.

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:23 am

In my experience mocking and drafting a satellite, the middle picks (5-7) offer the tail end of discernible tiers of players, so that's where I'd want to be.

Picking 15th, I was left to hope at the end of round 3 that someone would drop 6-8 picks. 15th, 14th are bad unless you like the grab-the-top-closer strategy.

[ March 01, 2007, 12:31 PM: Message edited by: cribgusto ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:40 am

Originally posted by AmericanDreams:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: Can you explain where you have Utley ranked and why? I think picking Utley based on position scarcity is a mistake in rd 1, and will set your team a little behind. I have Utley ranked about #20 when you factor in his position.

I think two things are happening.

A. There are some VERY optimistic projections out there

B. Since the drop off is SO HUGE, many think they will gain a big advantage by rostering the clear cut best 2B.

With respect to A, don't get me wrong, Utley is a wonderful player, but historically, players that hit at his level regress the following year -- even if they are in his age bracket. Plus as Jeff mentioned, what really makes him valuable is the high teens steals. Drop that by 5 or 10 and his value takes a bit of a nosedive.

With regards to B, I hate to let a nice anecdotal argument get in the way of the numbers, and my numbers say Utley is about #20. [/QUOTE]I know the chat is over, but how in the dickens can Utley be 20? Todd's numbers are so much more advanced than anything I could come up with, so I'm sure it's just me not getting it as opposed to Todd being wrong. Still, everything I have studied in regards to positional scarcity tells me that Utley is extremely valuable. [/QUOTE]Likewise, I have Utley #19 - I'll take my numerical scarcity formula over his scarcity hype.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:09 am

It will be interesting to see if the March trend on Utley in the mocks drops him from where he is going now (middle of the first round) to the back end of the first round. Despite the projections, I do not imagine he will drop all the way to the second round in the mocks (or the NFBC). Been wrong (many times) before but I do not see him falling that far.

SplendidSplinter · Post by **SplendidSplinter** » Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:21 am

Seems like this largely comes down to how one values and tiers his/her players.

In the first three rounds, I want to draft from the bottom of my tiers without sacrificing talent in the process. I felt #3 offered the best opportunity to accomplish that, and #7 was my next preference.

Reyes falls at the bottom of my first tier (three players large), so I'm glad to know I'll draft the only player remaining in my first tier in the first round. At #7, I would have received the second-last or last player in my second tier. However, while I'd draft earlier in round 2, I feel a first-round-capable talent will fall to me at #28 as well. Then, I draft earlier in round 3, a round in which I project my target tier to empty no later than at #36 or #37.

Come round 4, I expect the talent to begin blending together, which means I would rather draft right at the beginning (but I don't like the #14 and #15 spots as much for rounds 1-3) or pick up what's left toward the end with pick #58.

In either round 4 or round 5, I move to positional scarcity. While I would prefer to draft nearer to the middle to avoid runs, I like having the opportunity to bag two catchers, two elite pitchers, two second basemen, or two closers nearly back-to-back at #3.

Just my take, though. Risk judgement/aversity and general strategy are other factors, as I don't view Reyes as the health risk some do, and I don't want to be shut out of an elite SS. Todd probably has different tiers, different risk assessments, and a different overall strategy. I'll hope he's wrong or I'm lucky, but I guess I should know better than to doubt the Forum Funklord

AmericanDreams · Post by **AmericanDreams** » Fri Mar 02, 2007 1:09 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: I know the chat is over, but how in the dickens can Utley be 20? Todd's numbers are so much more advanced than anything I could come up with, so I'm sure it's just me not getting it as opposed to Todd being wrong. Still, everything I have studied in regards to positional scarcity tells me that Utley is extremely valuable.

I trust the numbers as opposed to intuition. Some may be I have somewhat tempered numbers (I have him regressing a little from last season). But the scarcity effect can be quantified and it is my not so humble opinion that the untuitive bump he is given is greater than the numbers warrant. [/QUOTE]Looking at it from that perspective, I'd obviously agree with you.

But look at it from this angle: Can you name 19 players who should be valued ahead of Utley? We could obviously name 6 or 8 easily. But to get to 19, you'd have to have guys like Wright, Jeter, and Sizemore ahead of him, and Utley is forecast to put up as good or better overall numbers than all of them, and he plays a much, much more scarce position than all of them:

Utley .305___30___125___105___15

Wright .310__27___98____115___20

Jeter .315___15___120___90____25

Grady .290___27___125___80____22

On a final note, a lot of people have Utley regressing this year, and maybe he will. But consider - he actually already regressed last year: his 2006 OPS was actually down .009 points from 2005. So there is a chance the pendulum could swing back the other way in 2007. It's not a given that a player in his late 20's will regress 2 years in a row.

[ March 02, 2007, 07:11 PM: Message edited by: AmericanDreams ]

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:09 pm

Glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks Utley is a second round pick.

What one gains as his top of the line standing for second basemen, the rest can grab some with better stats and then all compete for 2nd best 2B, which an augument can be made for a few of them. After Utley, there is a pretty big pool of roughly the same talent.

Evil Empire · Post by **Evil Empire** » Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:14 pm

Whats that? 98 RBI's for Wright? In that lineup after knocking in 116 last year? I would think his steals would go down before is RBI's