As always great to see everyone but mostly I just see…time is all too short to really catch up but those quick conversations mean the world to me. Not just that there are other freaks out there like me, but the individuals that make up this family are some of the best in the world.
And we draft….
I had the number nine pick this year. And this was one of those years where a winning strategy truly could be made from anywhere in the 1 – 15 spectrum. At nine, I was really torn by the quality of players that would be available to me. I do not/have not taken a pitcher in the first round, as I still feel the loss on bats would be tougher to make up than the loss in a top-tier anchor. I expected to have to either go with Acuna (whom I value, but was assured my man-crush was just not me being a homey) and Arenado. The thing about Arenado is he is the picture of the first rounder. He is not there because he is the new bright toy who had a great year last year. He is there because few players over the last few years have been as consistent. He does everything well except steal bases. And to me the first round is about solid…not taking chances or playing favorites.
It was the stolen base factor that had me leaving my crush on Arenado to date my new crush Acuna. I’ve watched him play for a few years and love that buggy-whip swing and high energy. And like there is a need for another excuse for me to watch the NL East repeat champion Braves. And he wasn’t there. Picked at Number 8. I was really surprised. John Scull snaked that pick from me and this would not be the only time he got to me. With John at 8, Scott Jenstad at 7 and Jenny Butler at 10, I could never count on anything. John passed on Trea Turner and Christian Yelich to take Acuna which surprised me. Now I had a deeper conundrum. Yelich, Turner, or Arenado. No bad pick but I really had not anticipated Yelich and Turner being there.
I went, with pain at leaving the other options out there, with Yelich giving Jenny a gift of Turner at 10. I am such a nice guy….but why? Once I decided to take Acuna to take advantage of his steals, Arenado was gone to me. Yelich will not give me nearly as much speed as Turner, but Yelich should give me more by way of other counting stats and batting average. Last year, two areas killed my team…BA and steals. I was this year paranoid about banking as much BA help as I could get and hope to draw enough speed to compete. If it had been a choice between Turner and Arenado, I probably would have taken Turner. We will never truly know.
Last year, I built one helluva pitching staff starting in the second round. This year, I did not repeat the same strategy, hoping instead to have a little more balance between the bats and wings. And it is so hard to say no to Paul Goldschmidt. Probably will not steal like he used to, but he can toss in a helpful ten or so bags or so. If he avoids his bad start from last year, he could be 1st round again next year and with his ++BA, hitting third in that line-up, there is no questioning this pick. Third round saw me passing on some strong bats to start my pitching staff. Most of the “premium”, “Ace” class of Sherzer-esque arms were gone by this time, but that second seven or so of the top 15 still had some quality. My plan was in the third to take Strasburg, warts and all. I know he hasn’t hit 180 IP or 30+ starts since 2014, but his only 30 (will turn 31 in July) and un-hittable stuff and control is still there. I have a feeling….maybe it is gas.
Coming back it was looking like I was going to go back-to-back with pitchers. I was salivating…Clevinger…live arm in a weak division playing on a playoff team. Yeah! NOT! Jenny got me good on this one.
Clevinger was the last of what I thought were the “safe” top-tier arms. The next group was a bit of a bunch, so I went with some more meat. Rhys Hoskins will not help my BA, though he has shown a great eye (good to great OBP from the minors on up), will be back at his natural position and just turned 26. We have not seen his best. Probably hitting clean-up in that line-up so whatever Harper leaves, Hoskins will surely bring home.
Yelich, Goldy, Hoskins….I have seen worst starts to a good hitting team.
For the fifth round, I did something I have never done before. I picked a Rockies pitcher as my second starter. He’s young, he’s talented, and he pitches in Coors, but German Marquez could be the real deal. I do not expect 2nd half 2018 times two. If he maintains his control with his “stuff”, he will be better than the average #2 starter.
Closers started going (rather surprisingly with Hunter Strickland being the first closer off the boards) beginning in the 4th round. By the 6th, I jumped in on the band wagon with Aroldis Chapman. As Doughboy’s laments, Chapman has never really put it all together. He hasn’t thrown 60 innings or 100 K’s in any of the last three years. He sometimes needs a phone book to find the zip code for the plate. But he is on MY team now so this is going to be the year he breaks 40 saves.
Great start on counting stats and BA. Check.
Two starters who should provide ERA/WHIP base with good K’s. Check.
Anchor-ish closer. Check.
Speed. Not so much. I knew…I KNEW Dee Gordon was going to make it back to me and even if Seattle hits him 9th, he will steal in buckets. Well, he did not make it back to me, so I grabbed Jose Peraza. You know that guy is only 25? I am not sure Jesse Wanker is really going to be the Reds lead-off guy all year, but as of right now I have Peraza batting 6th. This is good for his counting stats, maybe not so good for reaching 30 steals again. Had a power surge and his OBP surged in the second half as well. Has grown to have maybe league average power? Don’t know, but he may be finally growing into his body a bit. Power is good but I drafted him for his wheels and solid line-drive rate to protect my average. Would be nice if he runs...
My plan going in was to leave the first ten rounds with at least three outfielders because I think there is a huge drop-off in talent and there seems to be more depth on the corners and in the middle than in the past. So here I grabbed my third OFer in AJ Pollock. I wonder if the Dodgers will green light him? Another risk for me. AJ has not had even 500 AB since 2015. But…but if he is on, another complete package. May not steal 30 ever again but 15-20 not out of the question with good power. If, if, if….
The other part of my strategy was to have three starters after ten. This time another hot young arm…one Luis Castillo. Great control. Decent heat. Lots of swings and misses. And he is friends with Joey Votto. What more do you need? I need more like the second half of ’18 is what I need.
And a catcher. Finally Buster Posey has fallen far enough for me to consider. I am starting to rack up some high deductible risks. Posey seems to be ok after last year’s surgery. Will SF finally play him more at 1st? If I get 475 AB this will be a good pick, but I feel a little silly even writing that. In any regard, Posey can still be counted on to hit the ball hard with a solid line-drive stroke, and one of the few catchers who will not hurt your batting average.
At the end of 10, I have one catcher, one MI, one CM, a closer, three starters and three outfielders. On pitchers, Strasburg will be ok. Marquez and Castillo carry some risk as all young high upside arms will. There will be a worse three OFers than Yelich (due for a bit of a step down as MVP’s rarely equal or better their MVP year), Hoskins (the sky is the limit), and Pollock (winning team but will he stay healthy). Goldschmidt is, well, gold and probably not a better cornerman out there. Peraza is not a top 15 MI.
At this point many are grabbing second closers. Mine will be Arodys Vicaino in the 11th. He is no Hunter Strickland, but then again who is. He will have to hold off Minter and if Kimbrel signs with Atlanta, I am screwed. 2017 was obviously a career year for Jonathan Schoop (12th), but I think 2016 is a doable repeat in his current gig. Makes good contact, but would rather eat bad oysters than take a walk or steal a base. Just 27 too so maybe there is another gear here.
