Is Josh Hamilton better than Carlos Quentin?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 4:53 am

Now, I know what you're thinking, "are you freaking kidding me, now you've gone off the deep end Crazy. Of course he’s better, it’s not even close, Josh Hamilton's the "chosen one" for God's sake!"

Well, after you get that out of your system, seriously break down their 2008 season and get back to me.

We're not talking about guys that have a big track record, so saying Hamilton has a much better chance to repeat or improve for that matter doesn't hold much weight with me. They both have a lot going for them, an incredible amount of similarities to go with an incredible amount of talent.

Comparisons:

Both were highly touted as youngsters (yes, Hamilton was MUCH more highly thought of)

Carlos will turn the magical age of 27 during the 2009 season, Josh will turn 28.

Both hit 3rd in the lineup.

Both hit in homerun parks.

Both had HUGE years.

Carlos Quentin was 5th in MVP voting (despite missing 32 games)

Josh Hamilton was 7th in MVP voting

Now let's break down the numbers.

Now, you could say Hamilton's 1st half was so much more dominant than Quentin's, and it was. In 93 games he hit .310-21-95-60 runs with 7 stolen bases. Simply dominant. The guy was on fire, no doubt.

In Quentin's first half he hit .277-22-70-62 runs with 5 stolen bases.

Hamilton’s BA and rbi's far outdid Quentin, but Carlos outhomered and scored more runs (just barely).

1st half - Big advantage to Hamilton.

Now if you like to look at 2nd halves to try and interpret how a player will play going into the next season, OMG, you're gonna LOVE Quentin.

In those 39 games in the 2nd half (40% less games played than Josh) he hit .312 (16 points higher than Hamilton), with 14 homers (3 more than Josh), 30 rbi's (only 5 less) and 34 runs (only 4 less runs than Josh. One thing's for sure, Carlos is showing a more consistent ability to hit homeruns and score runs.

2nd half - Is there any argument here, Hamilton faded a little while Quentin thrived.

Advantage Quentin:

Carlos only played in 39 games in the 2nd half due to breaking his wrist (blame it on his temper). Had he not gotten hurt, I seriously think we'd be calling Carlos the MVP and you'd see him being drafted consistently in the late 1st round. Because he lost 25+ games, his numbers just don't stand out like Hamilton's and neither does his story, more on that later.

Now let’s take a look at the overall numbers:

Josh Hamilton

156 games - .304-32-130-98 runs with 9 sb's

Carlos Quentin

130 games - .288-36-100-96 runs with 7 sb's

Now prorated to 156 games his stats would see a 17% increase (this is a reasonable expectation based on his incredibly consistent production from month to month last year)

156 games - .288-42-117-112 runs with 8 sb's.

Let's compare side by side:

Hamilton - .304-32-130-98 with 9 sb's

Quentin (prorated).288-42-117-112 runs with 8 sb's

You might note that Hamilton's BA was 18 points higher and his rbi's were 13 higher. On the other side of the coin, Quentin slugged 10 more homeruns and scored 14 more runs. If you call their runs and rbi's a wash, I'd take Quentin's 10 homers over Hamilton’s 18 point BA difference but I digress.

2008 season - Advantage Carlos Quentin. Yes, I’ll say it again, Carlos had a more dominant season when you look at his production per game. He lost 25 games and got hurt right when he was grooving. And if you merely think the BA will end up being the biggest difference between the two think again, Carlos’ xBA was only 4 points less than Josh’s, so their batting averages in 2009 might end up closer than you think.

And let's be honest here folks, doesn't the fact that Hamilton's story is so incredible, so inspirational, play into the attention he's getting? I mean, it could end up being one of the best stories to ever come out of baseball. It wouldn’t surprise me to see this on the big screen 25 years from now. Yes, this guy is an absolute “FREAK“, I know he's been called the “chosen one", but I’m putting that to the side for one minute and just looking at numbers. And all’s I’m saying is Carlos Quentin’s numbers were just as good, he was equally as dominant last year if you break everything down, and he’s simply not getting the same respect in drafts, and it’s not fair. If I was Carlos and I looked at my draft spot compared to Hamilton, I might throw out a WTF. And as far as the wrist being a concern, this is what he had to say. “I’ve been hitting since the beginning of December. One-hand drills, live pitching. It felt great.”

If you tell me Hamilton is a surefire 10th pick in the first round then there's no rational thinking that should allow Quentin to be picked outside the 1st round let alone the 2nd. I’m not saying any of these guys should be picked so damn early, (I‘ve already gone on record as saying Hamilton is a risk in the first round), I’m saying where should Quentin go in the draft in relation to Hamilton? If they went back to back in a draft can you seriously argue against it? Can Carlos outproduce Josh in 2009, I believe he’s got a good chance.

Is Josh Hamilton really better than Carlos Quentin?

I know, it still seems ludricous to even ask that question.....but it's a question that is not so easy to answer if you look closely enough.

RedRyder · Post by **RedRyder** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 6:05 am

You won't have to wait 25 years for the Josh Hamilton story to hit the screen, Warner Bros. optioned his life story about a year and a half ago.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 6:11 am

Losing Kinsler and Young playing injured hurt Hamilton's second half numbers. His drop off coincides with these events.

RedRyder · Post by **RedRyder** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 6:19 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

Losing Kinsler and Young playing injured hurt Hamilton's second half numbers. His drop off coincides with these events. I didn't like seeing him participate in the Home Run Derby...

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 6:25 am

Originally posted by RedRyder:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

Losing Kinsler and Young playing injured hurt Hamilton's second half numbers. His drop off coincides with these events. I didn't like seeing him participate in the Home Run Derby... [/QUOTE]that too..

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 6:30 am

Ummm Crazy, one simple point you forgot to mention: No injury to Hamilton. Who knows how much strength Quentin may or may not lose. Because this is an unknown, you have to discount his value until we see some data points.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 6:38 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

2008 season - Advantage Carlos Quentin. Yes, I’ll say it again, Carlos had a more dominant season when you look at his production per game. too bad the game we play isn't based on prorated #'s or production per game. he had 26 doubles and 36 homers last year. those #'s could easily flipflop this year and that's IF he is healthy.

Quentin had a bum shoulder 2 years ago and is NOW recovering from a broken wrist. he's good while he plays, but there are more sure things that early in the draft.

huskyfan88 · Post by **huskyfan88** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 6:46 am

Both are in exceptional hitting situations but Hamilton has hit for 1 1/2 years to Quentin's 1. Also, Hamilton's higher prospect status and playing in Texas may account for the slight edge for Hamilton. Both are great ballplayers though.

Scott Boras · Post by **Scott Boras** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:01 am

Hamilton has a longer history of MLB success albeit slightly, less concern of injury, and hits in a better lineup leading to an assumed run and rbi advantage (a debate for another day). Quentin is a great player and could absolutely outperform him this season, but as we've all been told a million times, first 5+ rounds is about building a foundation and avoiding risk. Hamilton is less risk, thus is drafted sooner.

Great post, Crazy. Enjoyed the argument.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:06 am

OK my opinion.First off with Hamilton i would think he will do a much better job with his endurance in the 2nd half this season.Dont forget he missed three years and that home run contest didnt help.

Everyone has different projections but here is a couple from some of the best.

Shandler has Hamilton

35 hr 113 rbi's, 101 run's,and a 300 bavg.

Shandler has Quentin

27 hr 89 rbi's ,90 run's,and a 283 bavg

ROTOWORLD has Hamilton pick 25

ROTOWORLD has Quentin pick 59

Eddie Gillis has Hamilton pick 9

Eddie Gillis has Quentin pick 32

Gillis has the right to change his mind a little from Feb 21 to the main event. thank you.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:21 am

as of 2/21 my application has:

Hamilton pick 8

Quentin pick 46 (2 pitchers in front of him)

if quentin looks good in spring training, i'll move him up a few slots. if he looks average, i'll keep him about the same. if he doesn't look good, he'll drop in the 60s (it won't matter because someone else will pick him first).

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:37 am

Wow Gordon a Hamilton guy .I also agree Quentin's spring will have a lot to do with where he goes.

If his wrist is 100% and he's mashing i will also move him up.If he has a rough spring then i doubt he will land in the kingdom.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:50 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Ummm Crazy, one simple point you forgot to mention: No injury to Hamilton. Who knows how much strength Quentin may or may not lose. Because this is an unknown, you have to discount his value until we see some data points. That's an excellent point and I'm well aware of it. I just thought it would be kind of fun to break down two very similar players while one is getting much more attention than the other.

Gekko makes a good point about prorating numbers but I think in Quentin's case he demonstrated such consistent production from month to month and he went down at arguably his hottest stretch. Adding 17% to his production seemed reasonable based on the 17% loss in games played.

On the other side of the coin, prorating a guy like Chris Davis would be a more inaccurate projection as players can get hot in smaller stretches like that.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:52 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Wow Gordon a Hamilton guy .I also agree Quentin's spring will have a lot to do with where he goes.

If his wrist is 100% and he's mashing i will also move him up.If he has a rough spring then i doubt he will land in the kingdom. eddie - i had hamilton on my main event team 2 years in a row.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:56 am

Originally posted by RedRyder:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

Losing Kinsler and Young playing injured hurt Hamilton's second half numbers. His drop off coincides with these events. I didn't like seeing him participate in the Home Run Derby... [/QUOTE]I remember what it did to Abreu awhile back. It can be the kiss of death.

I remember Will Clark turning down a homerun derby invite because he thought it would hurt his swing, and I couldn't agree more.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:59 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

Wow Gordon a Hamilton guy .I also agree Quentin's spring will have a lot to do with where he goes.

If his wrist is 100% and he's mashing i will also move him up.If he has a rough spring then i doubt he will land in the kingdom. eddie - i had hamilton on my main event team 2 years in a row. [/QUOTE]I drafted him in the 26th round a couple years ago in a WTA. Last year I was worried about him being healthy for a whole year after seeing him go through some injuries in 2007. Umm, I was wrong.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:08 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I drafted him in the 26th round a couple years ago in a WTA. Last year I was worried about him being healthy for a whole year after seeing him go through some injuries in 2007. Umm, I was wrong. and u aren't worried about a player with a broken wrist??????????????????????

jamesmaples · Post by **jamesmaples** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:20 am

One other thing to think about when drafting Hamilton is that he is a drug addict. He is tested and tested and all he has to do is fail one and he is done for 2009.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:28 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by RedRyder:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

Losing Kinsler and Young playing injured hurt Hamilton's second half numbers. His drop off coincides with these events. I didn't like seeing him participate in the Home Run Derby... [/QUOTE]I remember what it did to Abreu awhile back. It can be the kiss of death.

I remember Will Clark turning down a homerun derby invite because he thought it would hurt his swing, and I couldn't agree more. [/QUOTE]This stuff is way over blown in Josh's case IMO.

Before ASG

21 HR in 93 games .225/game

After ASG

11 HR in 63 games .175/game

(.175 * 93 = 16 HR, so he was only 5 HR off pace)

Having watched about 120 Tex games last year and having Josh on all 4 teams, and Ian and MY on 2 of those teams, he simply didn't come up to bat in the same "plentiful" situations that he did the first half.

Milton Bradley went from 19 1st half HR to THREE 2nd half HR.

Was he in the HR Derby?

No... Ian and MY weren't on base as much.

Having watched all those games, when Ian and MY were on, it was crazy watching that lineup day in, day out and that him being 5 HR off his before ASG pace is due to Ian and MY being injured.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:33 am

Originally posted by jamesmaples:

One other thing to think about when drafting Hamilton is that he is a drug addict. He is tested and tested and all he has to do is fail one and he is done for 2009. I was going to delve into his drug addiction a little bit but I decided to just talk about numbers. He is a drug addict and hopefully he stays drug-free, the odds are certainly against him.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:34 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by RedRyder:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

Losing Kinsler and Young playing injured hurt Hamilton's second half numbers. His drop off coincides with these events. I didn't like seeing him participate in the Home Run Derby... [/QUOTE]I remember what it did to Abreu awhile back. It can be the kiss of death.

I remember Will Clark turning down a homerun derby invite because he thought it would hurt his swing, and I couldn't agree more. [/QUOTE]This stuff is way over blown in Josh's case IMO.

Before ASG

21 HR in 93 games .225/game

After ASG

11 HR in 63 games .175/game

(.175 * 93 = 16 HR, so he was only 5 HR off pace)

Having watched about 120 Tex games last year and having Josh on all 4 teams, and Ian and MY on 2 of those teams, he simply didn't come up to bat in the same "plentiful" situations that he did the first half.

Milton Bradley went from 19 1st half HR to THREE 2nd half HR.

Was he in the HR Derby?

No... Ian and MY weren't on base as much.

Having watched all those games, when Ian and MY were on, it was crazy watching that lineup day in, day out and that him being 5 HR off his before ASG pace is due to Ian and MY being injured. [/QUOTE]You make a very good point.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:39 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by jamesmaples:

One other thing to think about when drafting Hamilton is that he is a drug addict. He is tested and tested and all he has to do is fail one and he is done for 2009. I was going to delve into his drug addiction a little bit but I decided to just talk about numbers. He is a drug addict and hopefully he stays drug-free, the odds are certainly against him. [/QUOTE]I disagree. He's been off them for awhile now. He's got good family/spiritual support now. Kinsler and Young have provided the support in a huge way last year team wise.

Kinsler grabbed Young and they went to Josh's first press conference after the trade to Texas to support him. That was huge for Josh, espeically after....

I know for a fact that Reds players mocked Hamilton's past and teased him about his drug issues the entire time he was there. A relapse was possible if he remained in Cincy.

[ February 21, 2009, 02:41 PM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:44 am

Originally posted by jamesmaples:

One other thing to think about when drafting Hamilton is that he is a drug addict. He is tested and tested and all he has to do is fail one and he is done for 2009. just me, but i put ZERO weight on that.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 10:03 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by jamesmaples:

One other thing to think about when drafting Hamilton is that he is a drug addict. He is tested and tested and all he has to do is fail one and he is done for 2009. I was going to delve into his drug addiction a little bit but I decided to just talk about numbers. He is a drug addict and hopefully he stays drug-free, the odds are certainly against him. [/QUOTE]I disagree. He's been off them for awhile now. He's got good family/spiritual support now. Kinsler and Young have provided the support in a huge way last year team wise.

Kinsler grabbed Young and they went to Josh's first press conference after the trade to Texas to support him. That was huge for Josh, espeically after....

I know for a fact that Reds players mocked Hamilton's past and teased him about his drug issues the entire time he was there. A relapse was possible if he remained in Cincy. [/QUOTE]Still Hamilton being the drug addict he was still has to go in the risk department.You never know their's been addict's who go 25 years then wake up one mourning and decide today's the day.Do i think Hamilton will make that mistake, NO.But you cant just throw it out or at least i dont.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Sat Feb 21, 2009 10:15 am

geez, forgot about the drug thing. HATE to see something like that happen. Wow, would hate it even more if I had him.