Closers and Catchers - The history

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu May 07, 2009 11:58 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

For McCann, I think people wrote down .300 for projections but didn't take the .270 he hit just 2 years ago into consideration.

crazy - while you have some good ideas about players, you also have some really bad ones

[/QUOTE]Gekko, do you remember what I said after I looked at your Main Event draft?

I said, why get McCann so early when you could have V-mart much later, who "will be better".

You scoffed at that remark then. How about now? Track record means a ton. V-mart had a longer, more dominant track record, he gets more at-bats on a yearly basis, has proven year to year to be more reliable for BA. How can you argue? Just because mass thinking before the season was that McCann was the top catcher doesn't mean you need to follow.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Thu May 07, 2009 11:58 am

Crazy - Laporta I feel will be a big time power hitter in the middle of the Tribe lineup (duh).. but probably won't make a HUGE impact this year. The opportunity for him to eventually take over this year is there.. clearly the Tribe is not committed to Francisco, even though he has been producing pretty decently... Hafner is apparently coming back in a week and a half or so, but who knows how long he'll STAY healthy for.. Dellucci is up now too... but ya, I just don't see him getting enough at-bats with all the other guys there... also, my biggest concern with the Tribe is that they are playing tight.. they aren't loose, it isn't the same clubhouse that pie'd people after games when Trot Nixon was there (GOD I MISS HIM) and I think Wedge is partially to blame... they are playing WAY under their potential AGAIN and I think Wedge is on the hot seat now. Granted, I didn't see them as a SERIOUS contender this year with that pitching, but in the AL Central, they should be right in the thick of things... with regards to LaPorta, this just doesn't seem to be a good situation to come into as a rookie.. I wouldn't count on him as a savior.. maybe a good comparison would be Andruw Jones' situation with the Rangers right now. But who knows? I sure HOPE he breaks out!

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Thu May 07, 2009 12:03 pm

Crazy - to be fair, Mark is NOT one of those people who follows the masses in his rankings and picks... now, sometimes it works out for him (Adam Jones, Chad Billingsley), sometimes it doesn't (Alexei, Jose Lopez).. and it's not even that McCann isn't as GOOD as Victor, he just doesn't get the at-bats Victor does, his track record isn't as consistent, and he gets picked 2 rounds ahead of Victor... I woulda taken McCann in the 5th... just not the 3rd... late 4th for Victor or McCann would be the earliest I'd go on a catcher this year with my preference being Victor...

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu May 07, 2009 12:10 pm

Originally posted by alang:

Closers dont really help you in WHIP or ERA. They dont pitch enough innings. They could hurt you if they are bad, but all closers can do that, including last year's best, Brad Lidge. Closers are a crapshoot, but draft them early all you want.

My closers from the NFBC draft:

Motte - Bust so far

M. Gonzalez - Good so far, but injury prone

T. Percvial - Good so far

My FA closer pickup - J. Beimel - Who knows?

But, there will be others.

There are currently 16 closers that are currently in the position, that were closing at this time last year. 7 from two years ago. That's a huge turnover. Percival has had good results so far, which is different than being good, and he is injury prone. In short, he's no longer the closer you drafted in hundreds of leagues in the 80's.

Okay, now it's time to check your math again. In order to do well in the NFBC, you need an ERA of about 3.75. If you drafted 6 starting pitchers that pitched 1200 innings and got you an ERA of 3.90 and then had a seventh SP that you drafted in the fifth round and projected to have a 3.40 ERA, you'd end up with a 3.83 ERA.

On the other hand, if you spent that fifth round pick on a closer who pitched 70 innings and gave you a 2.50 ERA, you'd have a 3.82. Closers can help ERA just as much as starters, unless of course you draft Percival and get an ERA of 5 from him (I feel generous today).

[ May 07, 2009, 06:12 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu May 07, 2009 12:12 pm

Isn't this apples and oranges?

McCann's been hurt, Martinez healthy. McCann was off to a good start before his eyes started bothering him.

Sorta like comparing Martinez and Soto last year, the Soto owners looked good, but only because of injury to Martinez.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 1:41 pm

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Gekko, do you remember what I said after I looked at your Main Event draft?

I said, why get McCann so early when you could have V-mart much later, who "will be better".

You scoffed at that remark then. How about now? Track record means a ton. V-mart had a longer, more dominant track record, he gets more at-bats on a yearly basis, has proven year to year to be more reliable for BA. How can you argue? Just because mass thinking before the season was that McCann was the top catcher doesn't mean you need to follow. u also said broxton would be a bust (among other BS). i'm starting to think that you just throw out a whole bunch of shitt and half of it has to stick.

coming into the season, mccann's skill base screamed low to mid 20 hr and .300+ avg. i thought .310+ was within reach but forecast around.300. the kid is still super young and can mash.

martinez on the other hand was coming off an injured season. there was no telling if he'd be healthy, let alone if his power would return.

now stop talking out your ass on this one. mccann hit .270 AS A 23 YEAR OLD AND YOU USE THAT AS AMMO?!?!? are u serious?

martinez was about 3-4 times risker than mccann on draft day. i still liked martinez in the 5th and i did get him in a league or two, but mccann's skill set is far superior to martinez's on draft day. anyone disagreeing with that, doesn't know shitt.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 1:42 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Isn't this apples and oranges?

McCann's been hurt, Martinez healthy. McCann was off to a good start before his eyes started bothering him.

Sorta like comparing Martinez and Soto last year, the Soto owners looked good, but only because of injury to Martinez. some people get it, right Denny!

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Thu May 07, 2009 1:44 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by alang:

Closers dont really help you in WHIP or ERA. They dont pitch enough innings. They could hurt you if they are bad, but all closers can do that, including last year's best, Brad Lidge. Closers are a crapshoot, but draft them early all you want.

My closers from the NFBC draft:

Motte - Bust so far

M. Gonzalez - Good so far, but injury prone

T. Percvial - Good so far

My FA closer pickup - J. Beimel - Who knows?

But, there will be others.

There are currently 16 closers that are currently in the position, that were closing at this time last year. 7 from two years ago. That's a huge turnover. Percival has had good results so far, which is different than being good, and he is injury prone. In short, he's no longer the closer you drafted in hundreds of leagues in the 80's.

Okay, now it's time to check your math again. In order to do well in the NFBC, you need an ERA of about 3.75. If you drafted 6 starting pitchers that pitched 1200 innings and got you an ERA of 3.90 and then had a seventh SP that you drafted in the fifth round and projected to have a 3.40 ERA, you'd end up with a 3.83 ERA.

On the other hand, if you spent that fifth round pick on a closer who pitched 70 innings and gave you a 2.50 ERA, you'd have a 3.82. Closers can help ERA just as much as starters, unless of course you draft Percival and get an ERA of 5 from him (I feel generous today). [/QUOTE]Alang - welcome aboard.

While I respect your opinion and will concede your non NFBC dominance - one thing you will learn as you transition your thinking to the 15 team format is nothing is that simple.

Yes it's great to wait on closers and if you get it right good for you - but please- there are so many ways to approach the draft - that you pick the one that works for you.

Let assume for the debate that going into the season we had a clear Top group of say 7 "elite" closers. The run on them started usually in the 5th rd through the 7th. This means that more than half of a league WILL commit to drafting a top closer.

At least one third of these owners will also grab a closer from the middle tier - joined by say 6 of the remaining owners.

I would venture to guess that only 2 or 1 veteran owners would wait to make a Mike Gonzalez their No 1 guy as you prescribe. Now you will be chasing the remaining questions marks - and so will the other 14 owners. I may have drafted Papelbon - but I'll do so where appropriate.

You will have no choice but to reach a round or two for Jason Motte.

Anyway- both strategies can work- it's what you do with your entire draft. While I was drafting Papelbon - maybe you were drafting David Ortiz and when you were grabbing Percival and Motte late - someone else grabbed Aaron Hill or Adam Lind.

Nothings that simple around here I'm afraid -

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 2:02 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

Crazy - to be fair, Mark is NOT one of those people who follows the masses in his rankings and picks... now, sometimes it works out for him (Adam Jones, Chad Billingsley), sometimes it doesn't (Alexei, Jose Lopez).. i wouldn't be so quick to bury alex & lopez. what, are we a month into the season? patience...

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu May 07, 2009 2:03 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

Crazy - to be fair, Mark is NOT one of those people who follows the masses in his rankings and picks... now, sometimes it works out for him (Adam Jones, Chad Billingsley), sometimes it doesn't (Alexei, Jose Lopez).. and it's not even that McCann isn't as GOOD as Victor, he just doesn't get the at-bats Victor does, his track record isn't as consistent, and he gets picked 2 rounds ahead of Victor... I woulda taken McCann in the 5th... just not the 3rd... late 4th for Victor or McCann would be the earliest I'd go on a catcher this year with my preference being Victor... I agree, Mark does not follow the masses. My point is that when I mentioned V-mart as being a better choice than McCann (before the season) he scoffed at it. Then when I call him on it now, he thinks my thinking is wrong. Hmmmm.

Jose Lopez was another guy I mentioned before the season as somebody many were mistakenly looking at last year's BA and writing it down for this year in their projections. He has a career .271 BA and is just 2 years removed from a .253 BA. Many rely too heavily on last year's numbers and don't use all the information available for constructing a reasonable expectation.

It could go the other way with Ryan Howard, .279 career BA yet just about everyone said he'd kill your average....based mostly on last year.

As far as Alexei Ramirez, he was one of those guys you could flip a coin as to whether he's a bust this year. Is it worth risking getting less than marginal production out of a 2nd/3rd rounder? Little information on a player who busted in the first half last year and bursted in the 2nd. No patience at the plate, no track record. Now, he's hitting at the Mendoza Line at the bottom of the lineup.

Then again, I thought Longoria was too risky to pick in the top 2 rounds based on lack of information. The fact he's absolutely tearing it up does not change the fact it was a risky move. But kudos those who had the balls to take him. I wouldn't have.

Da bears · Post by **Da bears** » Thu May 07, 2009 2:08 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Less than Dave:

Crazy - to be fair, Mark is NOT one of those people who follows the masses in his rankings and picks... now, sometimes it works out for him (Adam Jones, Chad Billingsley), sometimes it doesn't (Alexei, Jose Lopez).. i wouldn't be so quick to bury alex & lopez. what, are we a month into the season? patience... [/QUOTE]Yeah I really hope Alexei comes around Mark. I have him on two teams this year.

Unfortunately Ozzie is a moron and it looks like Alexei is going to the bench for awhile in favor of crappy Nix...

Unfortunately Nix has hit a hr already tonight.

[ May 07, 2009, 08:09 PM: Message edited by: Da bears ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 2:12 pm

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I agree, Mark does not follow the masses. My point is that when I mentioned V-mart as being a better choice than McCann (before the season) he scoffed at it. Then when I call him on it now, he thinks my thinking is wrong. Hmmmm.

if you were wrong b4 the season, u are still wrong now. i haven't changed my tune. vmart (IF HEALTHY) would be a good value pick in the 5th. but, in my book his skills take a back seat to mccann and EASILY.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 2:13 pm

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Jose Lopez was another guy I mentioned before the season as somebody many were mistakenly looking at last year's BA and writing it down for this year in their projections. He has a career .271 BA and is just 2 years removed from a .253 BA. Many rely too heavily on last year's numbers and don't use all the information available for constructing a reasonable expectation. i don't even use batting avg as a key component. avg is like era and whip. they are SECONDARY stats. they are NOT the ones you want to be looking at. sorry crazy.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 2:17 pm

Originally posted by Da bears:

Yeah I really hope Alexei comes around Mark. I have him on two teams this year.

Unfortunately Ozzie is a moron and it looks like Alexei is going to the bench for awhile in favor of crappy Nix...

Unfortunately Nix has hit a hr already tonight.

alexei is from Qba. he waits for the weather to warm up b4 he does.

ozzie is a tough one to peg. in the offseason, they made it clear to alexei that they wanted him to become more patient...AND he has so far. now ozzie comes out and says he wants more aggressiveness?!?

alexei has ZERO lineup protection too. stick him in the 2 hole for a month. alexei will be putting up very good numbers.

maybe alexei banged ozzie's daughter or wife or something and is now in his doghouse

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu May 07, 2009 2:32 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Da bears:

Yeah I really hope Alexei comes around Mark. I have him on two teams this year.

Unfortunately Ozzie is a moron and it looks like Alexei is going to the bench for awhile in favor of crappy Nix...

Unfortunately Nix has hit a hr already tonight.

alexei is from Qba. he waits for the weather to warm up b4 he does.

ozzie is a tough one to peg. in the offseason, they made it clear to alexei that they wanted him to become more patient...AND he has so far. now ozzie comes out and says he wants more aggressiveness?!?

alexei has ZERO lineup protection too. stick him in the 2 hole for a month. alexei will be putting up very good numbers.

maybe alexei banged ozzie's daughter or wife or something and is now in his doghouse

[/QUOTE]

can't really blame ramirez.

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Thu May 07, 2009 2:38 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Da bears:

Yeah I really hope Alexei comes around Mark. I have him on two teams this year.

Unfortunately Ozzie is a moron and it looks like Alexei is going to the bench for awhile in favor of crappy Nix...

Unfortunately Nix has hit a hr already tonight.

alexei is from Qba. he waits for the weather to warm up b4 he does.

ozzie is a tough one to peg. in the offseason, they made it clear to alexei that they wanted him to become more patient...AND he has so far. now ozzie comes out and says he wants more aggressiveness?!?

alexei has ZERO lineup protection too. stick him in the 2 hole for a month. alexei will be putting up very good numbers.

maybe alexei banged ozzie's daughter or wife or something and is now in his doghouse

[/QUOTE]

can't really blame ramirez. [/QUOTE]Nice set of Babinga's

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Thu May 07, 2009 2:59 pm

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Da bears:

Yeah I really hope Alexei comes around Mark. I have him on two teams this year.

Unfortunately Ozzie is a moron and it looks like Alexei is going to the bench for awhile in favor of crappy Nix...

Unfortunately Nix has hit a hr already tonight.

alexei is from Qba. he waits for the weather to warm up b4 he does.

ozzie is a tough one to peg. in the offseason, they made it clear to alexei that they wanted him to become more patient...AND he has so far. now ozzie comes out and says he wants more aggressiveness?!?

alexei has ZERO lineup protection too. stick him in the 2 hole for a month. alexei will be putting up very good numbers.

maybe alexei banged ozzie's daughter or wife or something and is now in his doghouse

[/QUOTE]

can't really blame ramirez. [/QUOTE]Nice set of Bubinga's [/QUOTE]Fixed -- right Dan?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu May 07, 2009 3:03 pm

Perfect!!

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Thu May 07, 2009 3:04 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by billywaz:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

billywaz - next year grab two bona fide closers before round 7 and you'll be set! If there is a next year!

[/QUOTE]how many times have you "quit" baseball this year already? [/QUOTE]Quit???

C'mon, I'm no Mark Srebro!

I'll fight and fight, but my power and speed numbers need a SERIOUS uptick for me to realistically think I can contend for my league crown.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Thu May 07, 2009 3:29 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I agree, Mark does not follow the masses. My point is that when I mentioned V-mart as being a better choice than McCann (before the season) he scoffed at it. Then when I call him on it now, he thinks my thinking is wrong. Hmmmm.

if you were wrong b4 the season, u are still wrong now. i haven't changed my tune. vmart (IF HEALTHY) would be a good value pick in the 5th. but, in my book his skills take a back seat to mccann and EASILY. [/QUOTE]If you look at McCann's peripherals, there is no way he's a .270 hitter. Leading into the draft, I'm not sure anyone could have justified taking Vmart over McCann. The main reason, as mark stated, was Vmart coming off the injury. Unless you had some inside information, VMart definitely carried more risk entering the season and you had no idea if you'd be getting 16-18 HR or 5 HRs from him. McCann is on the rise - definite .300 hitter with 20HR pop - conservative numbers.

It's easy to make a case for Vmart right now over McCann but it's ONLY may 7th. I also don't think a healthy VMart would've posted better numbers than McCann last year.

Crazy - I agree track record is important but I think McCann's already established his. Got to defend Mccann over Vmart in this case. Assuming McCann's vision problems are corrected, I still think he finishes with a .300 avg.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Thu May 07, 2009 3:47 pm

Originally posted by alang:

Closers dont really help you in WHIP or ERA. They dont pitch enough innings. They could hurt you if they are bad, but all closers can do that, including last year's best, Brad Lidge. Closers are a crapshoot, but draft them early all you want.

My closers from the NFBC draft:

Motte - Bust so far

M. Gonzalez - Good so far, but injury prone

T. Percvial - Good so far

My FA closer pickup - J. Beimel - Who knows?

But, there will be others.

There are currently 16 closers that are currently in the position, that were closing at this time last year. 7 from two years ago. That's a huge turnover. It could be just me, but I couldn't sleep peacefully at night with these guys as my closer.

Sure, new closers pop up during the year on FAAB, but you might spend 500 trying to get one. Or spend 250 to get one who might close for only a month.

This was still a year you could try to wait on closer and double up in back to back rounds i.e. Wood in the 9th, Qualls in the 10th but that's easier said than done. As LESS THAN DAVE said, in our league Chicago 4, there was a massive closer run that surely messed up some teams that went into the draft with this strategy.

Even if Percival and Gonzalez stay healthy (BIG IF), how many saves will they net you? 55 tops? You might still finish in 12th place in saves.

Not that I know it all or that my strategies always work. I don't mean to come off that way. I botched catcher in the main badly although Barajas is working out and now I don't feel so bad that I missed McCann, missed Mauer by 1 pick, and missed Doumit by a couple of picks. BUT STILL, in hindsight, I should've never left that draft with Weiters and Redmond as my catchers! Same thing happens with closers- sometimes your plan just doesn't work out on draft day.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu May 07, 2009 5:41 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I agree, Mark does not follow the masses. My point is that when I mentioned V-mart as being a better choice than McCann (before the season) he scoffed at it. Then when I call him on it now, he thinks my thinking is wrong. Hmmmm.

if you were wrong b4 the season, u are still wrong now. i haven't changed my tune. vmart (IF HEALTHY) would be a good value pick in the 5th. but, in my book his skills take a back seat to mccann and EASILY. [/QUOTE]If you look at McCann's peripherals, there is no way he's a .270 hitter. Leading into the draft, I'm not sure anyone could have justified taking Vmart over McCann. The main reason, as mark stated, was Vmart coming off the injury. Unless you had some inside information, VMart definitely carried more risk entering the season and you had no idea if you'd be getting 16-18 HR or 5 HRs from him. McCann is on the rise - definite .300 hitter with 20HR pop - conservative numbers.

It's easy to make a case for Vmart right now over McCann but it's ONLY may 7th. I also don't think a healthy VMart would've posted better numbers than McCann last year.

Crazy - I agree track record is important but I think McCann's already established his. Got to defend Mccann over Vmart in this case. Assuming McCann's vision problems are corrected, I still think he finishes with a .300 avg. [/QUOTE]I hear what you're saying. McCann is a very nice hitter. But look at what V-mart has proven to do.

BA: .283, .305, .316, .301, .278 (injury riddled season). I know people say look at skills not the stats, but statistically speaking, V-mart has shown that he can consistently hit in the .300's.

Advantage V-mart.

Runs: The most runs McCann has ever produced is 68. V-mart has scored 77, 73, 82, 78 (these are his best years). So obviously, if you want to compare runs (V-mart scores many more. Say it's because a career on-base percentage that's roughly 20 points higher, a better surrounding team, more at-bats, whatever, V-mart pretty much dominates him in that category pretty much year in and year out.

Advantage V-mart

Homers: V-mart - 23, 20, 16, 25

McCann - 24, 18, 23 - Similar homerun output. Again, V-mart has a longer standing trackrecord but I will call it even.

Advantage: no one.

Rbi's: McCann - 93, 92, 87

V-mart - 108, 80, 93, 114

I don't think I have to go into detail here.

Advantage V-mart

I left out stolen base comparison for obvious reason.

V-mart IMO has shown based on his track record a consistency to hit for a better average, hit an equal amount of homers, has already shown 2 rbi seasons that are over 20% more than McCann has ever produced and scores on average another 20% more in runs.

If you want to downgrade him because he was hurt last year that's fine (even though we all knew he was 100% healthy to start the year but whatever) but to think McCann has a better chance to produce from now on, I'd like to see some statistical evidence that could sway my thinking (other than the fact McCann is younger) because I don't see it.

I guess we'll just agree to disagree on this matter, but in the end, the proof is in the pudding.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Thu May 07, 2009 7:21 pm

I don't get the proof in the pudding thing...

AVG- they are both proven .300 hitters. Vmart has done it 3 of the last 5 yrs (60%), Mccann 2 of the last 3 (66%). Vmart has no edge here. Has he ever hit .333? I can make arguements for McCann. His peripherals are slighltly better too. But ultimately I consider them...

EVEN

Runs- Based upon where VMart hits in the order and past stats, he would get a 10 run edge over McCann. I also thought between Shoppach and Garko that Vmart might sit an extra game a week. Obviously wrong here. But because of this reasoning in the spring, I had them even in runs scored.

HR- We agree they are even. Of course, your guy is coming off elbow surgery. Was he considered healthy in the spring? Yes. So was Hafner. Is there some amount of inherent risk that VMart could develop soreness, stiffness, more loose bodies, not have full strength and hit less HRs... yes there is that risk. So....

ADVANTAGE: McCANN!

RBIs - Again, based upon history, you may give VMart a slight edge since he's actually had a 100rbi season before. But obviously each is capable of 90rbis. There's no obvious winner here. And again, Vmart returns from injury.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

It all came down to VMart returning from the injured elbow for me. Do I want the 10 extra runs VMart might give me if he doesn't sit too much from Shoppach/Garko AND the risk he carries heading into this year or do I want the safe sure thing from McCann? That was my thinking in March.

Not that I wouldn't have drafted VMart because I would have. BUT after McCann. Big picture, if I know VMart is his old self, he's actually the better value but I didn't know that so I stick by my rationale ranking McCann higher in March.

looks like a mistake right now

...but it's only MAY!

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu May 07, 2009 9:02 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

I don't get the proof in the pudding thing...

AVG- they are both proven .300 hitters. Vmart has done it 3 of the last 5 yrs (60%), Mccann 2 of the last 3 (66%). Vmart has no edge here. Has he ever hit .333? I can make arguements for McCann. His peripherals are slighltly better too. But ultimately I consider them...

EVEN

Runs- Based upon where VMart hits in the order and past stats, he would get a 10 run edge over McCann. I also thought between Shoppach and Garko that Vmart might sit an extra game a week. Obviously wrong here. But because of this reasoning in the spring, I had them even in runs scored.

HR- We agree they are even. Of course, your guy is coming off elbow surgery. Was he considered healthy in the spring? Yes. So was Hafner. Is there some amount of inherent risk that VMart could develop soreness, stiffness, more loose bodies, not have full strength and hit less HRs... yes there is that risk. So....

ADVANTAGE: McCANN!

RBIs - Again, based upon history, you may give VMart a slight edge since he's actually had a 100rbi season before. But obviously each is capable of 90rbis. There's no obvious winner here. And again, Vmart returns from injury.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

It all came down to VMart returning from the injured elbow for me. Do I want the 10 extra runs VMart might give me if he doesn't sit too much from Shoppach/Garko AND the risk he carries heading into this year or do I want the safe sure thing from McCann? That was my thinking in March.

Not that I wouldn't have drafted VMart because I would have. BUT after McCann. Big picture, if I know VMart is his old self, he's actually the better value but I didn't know that so I stick by my rationale ranking McCann higher in March.

looks like a mistake right now

...but it's only MAY! Proof is in the pudding comment comes down to 2009 season ending stats comparison. But since McCann has missed some time it's not completely fair. It would like comparing V-mart to McCann based on last year's stats.

The difference between the two is that McCann you pay an incredible premium for, V-mart, by comparison, an incredible discount for stats that should be as good if not better than McCann's.

You do make a good point about V-mart coming back from injury adding some risk but like I said before, he was completely healthy to start the year, as was McCann.

For your sake, I hope I'm wrong.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri May 08, 2009 12:44 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I left out stolen base comparison for obvious reason.

crazy - the more you talk, the more i'm back tracking on you "knowing your suff". i won't go into detail about you post other than:

1. if vmart is healthy, he should have been a 3rd or 4th rounder on draft day. seeing how some people think catchers get hurt more or suffer disappoints more than other positional players, vmart starting the season trying to come back from a major injury should have been a red flag for everyone.

2. "I left out stolen base comparison for obvious reason." why would youleave it out????? vmart is a ZERO in sb. mccann is going to get 4 or 5. in terms of homeruns, 4 or 5 sb's = an EXTRA 7 to 9 hrs. AND YOU ARE DISCOUNTING ALL OF THAT?!?!?

shame on you crazy. may i suggest you going back to the drawing board with some of this stuff. to discount 4 or 5 sb from the catcher position is LuNaCy...but maybe that's why you call yourself crazy