Regular Season HR title odds

Rotoplay.com · Post by **Rotoplay.com** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 4:14 pm

While waiting for the over/under win totals (easy money) to be posted for each team, I noticed there are a few players with nice odds on the most HR's for the season.

1. M. Teixeira - 40-1

2. A. Ramirez - 40-1

3. M. Cabrera - 40-1

4. E. Chavez - 75-1

5. M. Tejada - 100-1

I can vision one of these guys being able to win it. Who would have thought Beltre had a shot a year ago? $50 a pop on each of these guys and you may have next seasons entry fee and some extra coin to boot.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 5:45 pm

I kinda like the value...but even I wouldn't bet against these guys...you must be banking on injury...Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Vlad, Sheff, Thome, Dunn, Edmonds, Ortiz, Pujols...

~Lance

Cellar Dwellers · Post by **Cellar Dwellers** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 6:46 pm

I had Dunn last year at 40-1, and was looking pretty good there for awhile. What's Thome at this year, anyone know?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 7:08 pm

Teixeira and Chavez have as much of a chance as anyone. Forget about the other three guys though. Ramirez, in particular, is never seeing those numbers again, let alone the kind of improvement needed for the HR crown.

[ February 21, 2005, 01:13 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 7:13 pm

Actually, now I think about it, Tejada could get the HR crown if the second place guy hits 33.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 7:17 pm

I'd give you Texiera and Chavez at plus 7 hr...for a grand...no worries. I get all the other guys.

~Lance

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Feb 21, 2005 10:08 am

I'd give you Texiera and Chavez at plus 7 hr...for a grand...no worries. I get all the other guys.

Well I'm not saying they're going to win, but in 75 2005 seasons, is Chavez going to find the ceiling that he has the potential for in at least 1 or 2? Sure he is. Same kind of thing for Teixeira. Now in 25 of the 75 seasons, Pujols will probably win so he is a far better bet. . .at those odds. But his odds are probably 1:2 or something and he's therefore probably not a good bet. I don't think I'd take any two guys at +7 against everyone else, except maybe Pujols and Thome.

But even then someone will probably run away with it and they're just 2 of 10 guys it could be. It won't be as tight as last season. It usually isn't.

In any event, my argument was more that Ramirez and Tejada have no chance. I don't have anything against Cabrera; he just seems a bit young yet.

[ February 21, 2005, 04:43 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]