Talking About Players

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DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 12709
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Talking About Players

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2020 9:35 am

We all think we're right when we draft. No matter what player or what round or what method we used to make that pick, we all think it's the right pick.
During the course of a season, we will drop a little over half of the players we drafted.
This isn't to say we're wrong more than we're right. Sometimes we drop players because we may have been TOO right in one category and way wrong in another category, leading us to try and shore up that lesser category.
It also tells us we're wrong as much as we are right. :lol:

I'm going to talk about two friends of mine. One did not want his name mentioned. That's ok.
He didn't want his name mentioned because I'm going to talk about some high round players and he didn't want others to know his feelings.
The other friend is Mike Mager. A damned good player who, in my mind, is one of the top players in the NFBC.
The conversation with Mike was over some players that are farther down the draft boards.

We'll call my first friend 'Spiffy'.
Spiffy and I were in a draft and he chose Matt Olson with the 31st pick of the draft or 3/1
I chided him that his man crush on Olson knows no bounds.
He explained that Olson would lead all first basemen in homers this year. He also decreed that Olson would hit around .280 and would be the first first baseman selected in the next years draft.
Hmm.

I responded that Olson would have to be darned lucky to hit .280.
A left handed pull hitter will see shifts up the wazoo lowering his average.
I can see even more shifts with Olson and told him that .267, his batting average from last year, would be a good number for him.
And if he hits more home runs than all other first basemen, so what?
Pete Alonso (who he passed on) did that last year and he is going around the same place that Spiffy drafted Olson.
Even if Olson , hit Alonso-like homers, Spiffy would receive no bargain in drafting him at 3/1
Spiffy responded that first basemen were tough this year and that factored into his decision.
NOW WE'RE GETTING SOMEWHERE!
Olson, more than likely, would not have survived the next 28 picks and made it back to Spiffy.
He liked Olson more than Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Abreu, and Bell.

Spiffy then said something that rankles me.
"He also matches up well with my first pick, Acuna."
Excuse my french here, but WHO IN THE HELL DOESN'TMATCH UP WELL WITH ACUNA!
It was a stupid thing to say.
.267 hitters who hit a lot of home runs are a dime a dozen.
I can be a little hard on Spiffy here because others don't know him.
It's the way we are though. Not only are we right about our picks, we sometimes justify that righteousness.
Even if using stupid statements to make that justification.

Spiffy and I are pretty close. Which is to say that we can rag each other about our picks and not take anything personally.
I know Spiffy's methods of drafting and he knows mine.
We draft VERY differently. Perfect for giving each other shit.
He drafted Nelson Cruz at 5/1
I responded to him with three laughing guy emojis and an eye roller.
"Cruz will come in second to Olson in homers this year."
Oh boy.
This was before Covid was a thing and I responded that Cruz would not hit his age in homers.
Cruz is 39. Which really, is a nice thing to say for a 39 year old to even consider 'hitting his age'.
I also chided that it was ok though, because he sure matches up well with Olson!
"Fuck you" he responded. And I smiled.

(Edited for punctuation)
Last edited by DOUGHBOYS on Wed May 20, 2020 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 12709
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Talking About Players

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2020 9:37 am

Part 2...

It's different with Mike Mager and I. I really respect Mike's game. He drafts similar to myself,so it is rare that we disagree on players or methods.
Not to say I don't respect your drafting skills, Spiffy :lol: :lol:
Anyway, Mike and I have been in drafts since he joined the NFBC.
He may lead the league in counterparts I have been in drafts with.

Anyway, here is the way Mike described a player....
I believe he will hit 25-30 homers, score 100 Runs, 70 RBI, a .260 batting average, and get some bags too. I think he is undervalued for what he can still do if healthy
And my thoughts on the same player...
Overdrafted. He is becoming more and more one dimensional. He only had two stolen bases before he was hurt and I expect his power to follow a downward trend with more age and bad health.
We were talking about Andrew McCutchen.
In Mike's mind, he is right about McCutchen.
In my mind, I am right about McCutchen.
And like 'Value', neither of us will know till the season begins in who is right.

Mike and I share much the same philosophies while drafting in building a well rounded base, then adding pieces to that base, much like a jigsaw puzzle.
But we differed late in drafts on a philosophy.It started when I drafted David Fletcher.
In 'being right' about Fletcher, I over-justified the pick.
"Positionality, a good batting average and a guy who finds his way in the lineup every day", I crowed.
Mike didn't like the pick.
"No power, not much speed. I like building average early to avoid having to make these kind of picks".
I totally understood where he was coming from.
Totally.
It was solid reasoning.
Unlike him during that draft, I had not built the batting average base I was used to in that draft. So players like Fletcher and Luis Arraez were looking more flashy for me than for Mike. We both could be right when the season begins.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 12709
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Talking About Players

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2020 9:38 am

I love having disagreements with good drafters.
It improves our game.
Sometimes. we pick up things about players that we may have back pocketed for a long time.
Something we knew but disregarded or forgot over time.
Will I draft Olson or Cruz at 3/1 or 5/1?
No.
Will I draft McCutchen at his going rate of the 15th round?
No.
But it's good to know why others are making the selections they are making.
And who knows, if one of those players slips for a round or two, it may be just the justification I need in making them a selection.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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