Week 1 - Gekko Jeopardy

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 2:27 am

The is the 1st of around 10 weekly installments of Gekko Jeopardy, a game where Gekko gives the answer and MB posters need to respond by providing a single player’s name, along with a brief justification as to why they selected them.

In February, Gekko will reward the message board poster who has made the best and most substantive answers (as judged by Gekko) by giving that poster Gekko's draft slot in the March Web Content Panel NFBC Draft. This is a winner-take-all league where the prize is $500 in NFBC credits.

A quick example of how the game is played…

Gekko gives an answer, “This player (given his likely ADP) is most likely to be the most overrated player entering the 2007 NFBC draft.”

A good response from a message board poster would be…

“Hanley Ramirez. He is a young kid who skipped Triple-A and overachieved last year. He had maximum at bats (633) and will likely see a decrease in stats across the board, HR’s, SB, AVG, Runs, RBI’s.”

Now to the real answer...

WEEK 1 ANSWER:

This player has the best chance to be the 2007 NFBC version of fantasy football’s LaDainian Tomlinson. In other words, this player has the best chance at dominating all other fantasy players and carrying the most NFBC teams into “money” finishes.

Message Board posters: Who is he and why?

[ December 18, 2006, 07:04 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 4:54 am

dont we have to preface our answer with WHO IS ? If not we'll be disqualified from Gekko Jeopardy won't we ?? Tricky tricky.

Q

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 4:59 am

format isn't as important to me Q. let's get some responses!! who wants to win a free entry into a $500 winner take all league? post your responses to the Week 1 answer:

This player has the best chance to be the 2007 NFBC version of fantasy football’s LaDainian Tomlinson. In other words, this player has the best chance at dominating all other fantasy players and carrying the most NFBC teams into “money” finishes.

Message Board posters: In your opinion who is this player and why?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:09 am

WHO IS it's a trick question. There can be no LT type player in the NFBC. The closest you may come is the year Soriano had at 2b last year. 159 647 119 179 46 95 41. Yet he was on how many league winners roster ? I dont have the exact #'s but from what I recall it wasn't material.

Q

Kimo · Post by **Kimo** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:14 am

Johan Santana,

Santana is the best pitcher in fantasy, period.

Some owners will pass on Santana to take a hitter. At age 28, Santana is still in his prime, Draft him in the 1st Rd and enjoy the production.

IP W ERA WHIP K'S

235 20 2.75 1.00 265

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:52 am

I agree with Q that there is no LT in baseball...but I'd have to say Albert Pujols.

He's younger than Howard, hits for a better avg., can throw a few steals into the mix, and put up these numbers while playing in 16 fewer games...

Pujols (143 games played.)

92 Base on balls

.331 avg.

49 HR

137 RBI

119 R

7 SB

Howard (159 games played.)

108 Base on balls

.313

58 HR

149 RBI

104 R

0 SB

Now Howard "Seems" younger, has improved each year in the majors, and has a ceiling we do not know yet.

Pujols is a proven beast...hits like a machine, and never lets you down.

I'd vote for Pujols as the closest thing to a Tomlinson MLB has to offer.

~Lance

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 6:13 am

Originally posted by Kimo:

Johan Santana,

Santana is the best pitcher in fantasy, period.

Some owners will pass on Santana to take a hitter. At age 28, Santana is still in his prime, Draft him in the 1st Rd and enjoy the production.

IP W ERA WHIP K'S

235 20 2.75 1.00 265 Jim nailed it above. The gap in expected value for Johan over the next pitcher is 2x the difference Pujols has over the next tier of hitters.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 7:24 am

Who is Matt Holliday!

Though I agree Johan will dominate, he can only dominate 4 out of the 10 cats. He can't provide saves.

Holliday, on the other hand, can provide domination in 4 cats and provide enough in stolen bases to push a contending team over the top.

Why Holliday over Pujols? I'm predicting the Coors effect will override the Pujols effect.

For comparison: When Helton came into the bigs he hit .280, .315, and .320 while he was 24, 25, and 26 years old. Holliday has hit .290, .307, and .326 throughout those same ages. They aren't the same types of hitters, but I predict Holliday's size and power to override Helton's better eye.

No one predicted Helton to hit .372 the next season with 42 homeruns.

Likewise, no one will predict Holliday to hit .350 with 45 homeruns, but that isn't going to stop him from doing it. Add 135 runs and rbi's and 15 steals and you've got yourself one heckuva late first/early second round pick.

Pujols could provide those types of numbers as well, but let's not forget - he's shown signs of injuries in the past and only 24 people are going to get to draft Pujols. Close to 336 people might have a chance to draft an injury free Matt Holliday.

BTW, thanks for the opportunity GG.

[ December 18, 2006, 02:18 PM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:36 pm

Well, I'm sure this won't be a likely #1 pick, but I have to say Jose Reyes.

For the offense categories, I think to win $100K you need to total the following in offensive categories...

.2858

1168

299

1135

169

I project Reyes to have the follwing stats...

.290

115 115/1163 = 9.88%

16 16/299 = 5.35%

70 70/1135 = 6.12%

60 60/169 = 35.5%

For 56.85% total percenatge points of 400 possible.

Pujols...

.320

125 Runs 125/1163 = 10.75%

45 HR 45/299 = 15.05%

130 RBI 130/1135 = 11.45%

10 SB 10/169 = 5.92%

For 43.17% total percenatge points of 400 possible.

To maintain the avg above, the rest of Reyes team will have to hit .285228

Pujols remaining teammates will have to hit .281255

I will admit the 4 points that Pujols provides are huge, but I don't think it makes up for the 13.68% percenatge points that Reyes provides.

It's debatable, which I guess answers your question, Gekko...there is no one in baseball like LT.

Santana is the most dominant, but there are other good pitchers who can help in 4 categories also...Halladay, Carpentar..not as good as Santana, but also keep him from running away and dominating leagues like LT has done...anyone who disagrees...ask Eddie Gillis how his football teams are doing.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:57 pm

Nice Poopy...

But that 35.5 % from SB alone is a bit unbalanced. Tag-team Pujols with a SB/runs/avg type and you can bridge that gap.

Don't forget Pujols got slighted with the MVP loss to Howard, and may be playing 2007 with a chip on his shoulder!!!

Ha!

~Lance

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:38 pm

Wow, I'd really would like to answer, but I can't. I think I'll have too much on the line this year. I have three players in mind to start.

[ December 18, 2006, 07:38 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:49 pm

Come on CC, give us rooks a fightin' chance. I was never a threat last year in League 5 and I let Berkman pass me by in round 2 (stupid me.) Haha. And besides, no one reads these boards anyway.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 2:08 pm

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

Come on CC, give us rooks a fightin' chance. I was never a threat last year in League 5 and I let Berkman pass me by in round 2 (stupid me.) Haha. And besides, no one reads these boards anyway.

The cross over from fooball doesn't equate in baseball. There is only one Tomlinson. He is such a big advantage this year. There might be players at different position with similar gaps in baseball. The problem is you need a lot more than that one guy.

I'll use your Berkman example. Last year, Pujols was the best first baseman going into the season, but he wasn't that much better than Berkman. If you saw this going into the draft, you might have something to work off of. You can win it so many different ways. Each pick builds off of each other. Every draft will be different. I just ordered my crystal ball. I hope it is here soon!!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 2:45 pm

Poopy had last year's correct answer (we've been through this before), his projections seem reasonable and he explained his methodology well. However, he DID NOT phrase his answer in the form of a question. I would say the category is forfeit since the winning answer was not phrased in the form of a question. Ooooh, sorry.

Could you guys explain who LT is to the baseball crowd? I assume Gekko is just asking for the best player. Am I to believe that winning your football league is almost automatic just by having this dude on your team?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:10 am

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

BTW, thanks for the opportunity GG. no problem. nice response btw

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:11 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Wow, I'd really would like to answer, but I can't. I think I'll have too much on the line this year. I have three players in mind to start. shawn - GG's game come before winning any money. give me your response (player and reason why)!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:13 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Could you guys explain who LT is to the baseball crowd? I assume Gekko is just asking for the best player. Am I to believe that winning your football league is almost automatic just by having this dude on your team? LT is the best fantasy football player BY 10 MILES!! the guy literally turned bad owners into good ones and good ones into great ones.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 3:18 am

Watch at your own peril

As Gecko said, the LT of fantasy baseball would have to be someone that makes good owners great and turns great owners into league winners.

The guaranteed player that will do this is known to me, but concern for you safety prevents me from typing it here.

To find out, you'll have to watch the video. But be warned, if you watch the video you'll get an Email in exactly 7 days, and if you reply to that Email, you will develop an uncontrolable urge to draft Royce Ring with your first pick.

Who is (see video).

Remember, you've been warned!

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 3:40 am

As Gecko said, the LT of fantasy baseball would have to be someone that makes good owners great and turns great owners into league winners.

The guaranteed player that will do this is known to me, but concern for you safety prevents me from typing it here.

To find out, you'll have to watch the video. But be warned, if you watch the video you'll get an Email in exactly 7 days, and if you reply to that Email, you will develop an uncontrolable urge to draft Royce Ring with your first pick.

Who is (see video).

Remember, you've been warned!

****://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CgX_kPtJtM

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 5:37 am

Like LT...I assumed the following...

This baseball player would have to be taken in the first few picks (#1 or 2 max to be compared to LT)

Not a sleeper, not a top pitcher/position player...but THE TOP FANTASY PLAYER in baseball.

That's what I thought an LT would be.

~Lance

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 8:39 am

some interesting and good responses gentlemen. let's keep this thread though the weekend and then it's to the Week 2 Topic.

I figured out a cool way to pick the winner of the free entry into the Web Content Panel Draft in March.

Each week I will pick the poster with the best response (as judged by Gekko). After ten weeks is up, I (or Greg) am going to put each weekly winner's name on a piece of paper, throw them into a hat, and pick a winner AT RANDOM (no KDS or BBDS ). If he same poster is deemed as having the best response multiple weeks, then that person will have multiple pieces of paper in the hat.

The bottom line is...respond to each weekly Jeopardy topic with a quality post and you increase your chances of winning the free entry.

[ December 19, 2006, 02:41 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 8:53 am

I doubt he'll be correct, but IMO the Matt Holliday comment was probably the best post.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:36 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

some interesting and good responses gentlemen. let's keep this thread though the weekend and then it's to the Week 2 Topic.

I figured out a cool way to pick the winner of the free entry into the Web Content Panel Draft in March.

Each week I will pick the poster with the best response (as judged by Gekko). After ten weeks is up, I (or Greg) am going to put each weekly winner's name on a piece of paper, throw them into a hat, and pick a winner AT RANDOM (no KDS or BBDS ). If he same poster is deemed as having the best response multiple weeks, then that person will have multiple pieces of paper in the hat.

The bottom line is...respond to each weekly Jeopardy topic with a quality post and you increase your chances of winning the free entry. Thanks Don Pardo.

duggan · Post by **duggan** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:05 pm

WHO IS SORIANO? SORIANO IN THE FRIENDLY AND WINDY CONFINES OF WRIGLEY--- A BETTER LINEUP--MORE RBI CHANCE-- BETTER PROTECTION EQUALS HIGHER AVERAGE AND MORE RUNS SCORED. ALSO AROD DID PRETTY WELL UNDER SWET LOU, SORIANO SHOULD BENEFIT ALSO.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 11:56 pm

thanks for all of the responses guys. i will choose a week 1 winner later today as well as post the Week 2 topic.

sorry i got behind a day or two...Christmas and the end of fantasy football got me this past weekend.