NL Pitcher or AL Pitcher?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:41 am

Which would you prefer?

I looked at all the pitchers with at least 10 Wins last year who were starters and I found some things I expected and some things I didn't. I used the 10-Win pool because I felt they probably made up the largest portion the starting pitchers on NFBC rosters.

There were 87 pitchers with at least 10 Wins (43 AL and 44 NL). The average age for both groups was a little over 29 years. On average, the NL pitchers made about 1.5 more starts (AL 31.1, NL 32.7). The average AL start lasted longer, but only by about 1/3 of an inning. I would have expected more as I had always imagined the NL using the hook more often for a pinch hitter.

The difference in average ERA was negligable, which I also found surprising (4.182 AL, 4.179 NL). The AL WHIP was better (1.315 AL, 1.338 NL) which I initially thought was surprising until I saw the cause was walks (average AL 54, NL 64). I guess this makes sense because of intentionial walks (i.e. to get to the pitcher spot,et al). I do not have the numbers on intentional walk to prove that, so it is only my assumption as to the increased walk rate in the NL.

Another surprise is HR and K's. The leagues were about equal. On average, the AL pitches gave up 23 dingers in '06 compared to 22 to the NL and on K's the average was 137 to 143 for the AL and NL respectively. The difference in K's could make a difference in some tighter leagues.

So, all other indicators being relatively equal (a nod to the AL for WHIP), how did the average Wins work out? On average, the AL pitcher won one more game than the NL pitcher (13.7 to 12.7). Doesn't seem like much, but one win time six or seven starting spots on your NFBC roster could make a difference. I would have thought the reason for the difference would be because the AL pitchers were left in longer (not pulled for a pinch-hitter in tough situations), but I am not sure that is the case because of the average IP per game was nearly the same (about 1/3 of inning difference).

Just something to chew on if you are bored!

[ January 19, 2007, 06:44 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:10 am

Nice work Wayne. I would've expected better from the NL guys also.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Jan 19, 2007 8:32 am

I don't think the win totals across lges mean much at all. One team still wins each game played, don't they? Whoever wins the inter-lge series will have a slight edge, but it doesn't say a lot about the pitchers really.

The interesting part of your note is ERA. The NL has always scored significantly less runs as a league, but that changed last year. Why is that? Especially surprising in light of two new pitchers parks in SD and WAS, and the humidor in COL.

[ January 19, 2007, 02:44 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Jan 19, 2007 9:17 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I don't think the win totals across lges mean much at all. One team still wins each game played, don't they? Whoever wins the inter-lge series will have a slight edge, but it doesn't say a lot about the pitchers really.

The interesting part of your note is ERA. The NL has always scored significantly less runs as a league, but that changed last year. Why is that? Especially surprising in light of two new pitchers parks in SD and WAS, and the humidor in COL. You are probably right about wins, especially when taken on a league as a whole. However, since wins have been the devil of me the last couple of years, I was trying to look for a relationship, not from the leagues as a whole, but from that group of pitchers within the leagues that had the highest probablity of (a) being on an NFBC roster and (b) were being relied on to contribute significantly to the win total. I do not think I found one, which may just prove your point.

On the other point, was the change last year that the NL scored more runs or did the AL score less?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Jan 19, 2007 10:48 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I don't think the win totals across lges mean much at all. One team still wins each game played, don't they? Whoever wins the inter-lge series will have a slight edge, but it doesn't say a lot about the pitchers really.

The interesting part of your note is ERA. The NL has always scored significantly less runs as a league, but that changed last year. Why is that? Especially surprising in light of two new pitchers parks in SD and WAS, and the humidor in COL. You are probably right about wins, especially when taken on a league as a whole. However, since wins have been the devil of me the last couple of years, I was trying to look for a relationship, not from the leagues as a whole, but from that group of pitchers within the leagues that had the highest probablity of (a) being on an NFBC roster and (b) were being relied on to contribute significantly to the win total. I do not think I found one, which may just prove your point.

On the other point, was the change last year that the NL scored more runs or did the AL score less? [/QUOTE]Actually, after taking a look at 5-yr data, the AL still did score more runs in '06, though by the smallest margin over this time frame. But the NL also did see its highest avg runs scored, 4.75 runs per gm up from 4.45 in '05.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 7:45 am

Some more stats overall for the leagues:

AL: 6.44 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, 4.56 ERA.

NL: 6.71 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 4.49 ERA.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 7:48 am

KJ, do you know where to find a stat on how many runs per inning or runs per nine innings each team scored? That info seems impossible to get.

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 9:22 am

not sure if this is what you are looking for but it looks like the AL scored 5.23 runs at home and 4.85 runs on the road and the NL scored 5.11 at home and 4.62 on the road

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 9:53 am

No, I'm looking to see how good the offense of a team is, the converse of team ERA. For example, the Red Sox scored 5.62 runs/9. Team stats give you the run total but it is meaningless without knowing how many innings the team played on offense.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 10:25 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

No, I'm looking to see how good the offense of a team is, the converse of team ERA. For example, the Red Sox scored 5.62 runs/9. Team stats give you the run total but it is meaningless without knowing how many innings the team played on offense. bjoak - www.HardballTimes.com will give you the numbers

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 10:51 am

Wow, I actually looked for this on there before but I didn't have the good sense to scroll down the team stats page, figuring what I see on top is all I get. Anyway, they don't tell me directly but they give the number of outs the offense made which is all I need. Thanks, man.