Where did I go wrong?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:23 am

Ok folks...here is my draft from 2006. i finished aound 100 overall. obviously injuries to chavez, crisp, kent, gibbons, sweeney, etc...didn't help matters. other than the injuries, where do you think i went wrong? thanks.

ROUND PLAYER

1 Jason Bay

2 Juan Pierre

3 Lance Berkman

4 Eric Chavez

5 Coco Crisp

6 Jeff Kent

7 Andy Pettitte

8 John Smoltz

9 Michael Barrett

10 Jose Valverde

11 Jay Gibbons

12 Bob Wickman

13 Daniel Cabrera

14 Chris Young

15 Bengie Molina

16 Mike Sweeney

17 Cory Sullivan

18 J.J. Hardy

19 Jon Garland

20 Scot Shields

21 Orlando Hudson

22 Brandon Claussen

23 Gary Matthews Jr.

24 Mike Timlin

25 John Thomson

26 Ray Durham

27 LaTroy Hawkins

28 Jay Payton

29 Guillermo Mota

30 Vicente Padilla

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:41 am

Your problem is that you didn't get enough production in the crucial Rounds 11-20.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:53 am

1) reaching for Pierre in round two

2) overvaluing Chavez in round four

3) buying into the Daniel Cabrera hype

4) drafting Mike Sweeney (unless there is a prize for DL days)

Rounds 5-12 were pretty solid and several (C.Young, Matthews, Durham) of the later picks worked fine.

Obviously in addition to the injuries, the slow starts of Pettitte and Garland shackled a poor pitching staff.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:28 pm

First, give yourself credit for landing Shields, Hudson, Matthews Jr, Durham, and Padilla with your last 10 picks. Five players playing above a level expected in the last 10 picks is great drafting.

Coincidence or not, Shandler missed with the same players that didn't come through for you last year, some due to injury.

I would rethink the pitching. Spearhead the staff with two pitchers in their prime and not past their peak. Solid draft, a lot of bad luck.

[ January 24, 2007, 08:45 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 1:10 pm

I kind of agree with King of Queens in that most of your 11-20 picks were poor, with the exeption of Young and I'll give you Molina. He fit there. I think Pierre there was ok too. I have more of a problem with Crisp. He was way overvalued last year and you bought into it. A closer there would've been better. Very solid sp could've been had last year in rounds 11-16 and all you got was Young. Again a good pick, but 3 sp's should've been taken there. I guess I was lucky in that I didn't like Chavez or Kent so avoided them. Just intuition maybe. Not a bad draft. Finishing 100 or so in this group is pretty good. even the winner makes some bad picks, but only getting 2 decent players from rounds 11 to 20 hurts. P.S. Wickman couldn't K my grandmother and she's dead.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:33 pm

Mark,

I think if you retool your strategy too much you would be making a big mistake. Lots of good picks later- you were not that far away with that team.

I would learn 3 lessons-

1) mid 2nd round is too early for a one trick pony

2) I agree with Perry Chavez last year was a bad pick on April 1st not in hindsight- you missed that one

3) I think Dan nailed it get some more upside in your first picks in starting pitchers.

If you just posted that team though and asked me to guess where it finished, I honestly would have guessed in the money. Hope this helps-

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Jan 24, 2007 6:17 pm

I'd have hated the picks Kent, Pettitte, Gibbons, and Cabrera and they kind of worked out that way. Kent looks decent in a lot of ways but when you add up the numbers you expect from him they don't add up. Age doesn't help. Pettitte's peripherals never looked so sharp. Gibbons should never have projected that high. And Cabrera I remember going higher than Bedard in a lot of drafts and that never made sense to me. Guys who walk too many tend to fall apart (see Perez, Oliver). I tend to find picks in lots of drafts I hate, hate, though and I have to say you had a tight draft otherwise, except for Sweeney who you had to at least half expect what you got from him.

I disagree with others on Chavez. I mean actually I agree that he was never 4th round material and that's why he's never made it onto a team of mine, but there are lots of guys like that and if he put up his usual .275 with 30+ homers we wouldn't even be having this discussion. His projected value was something like 6th round. No big deal. Lots of people took Rolen in the 6th round and without the benefit of hindsight I'd have preferred Chavez in the 4th. Nobody guessed he was going to fall off a cliff.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Jan 25, 2007 12:12 am

Nothing wrong with this draft. In each pick and position I see purpose and logic. Speed was king last year, so I will go against the current and say I understand why it seemed like a good pick to get Pierre early. You didn't bite on the closer run and instead locked a veteran (then 28 year old Chavez with great experience and a history of being in the 100-30-100 range), a good outfielder now on a high powered team (Crisp), two veteran pitchers with proven winning records on teams with recent winning history and one with good K potential. Gibbons and Cabrera did not pan out though I understand why you picked them (Gibbons looked healthy and had 30 Hr potential and Cabrera has a live arm and Leo Mazzone who helped many pitchers with wildness). Late rounds filled with potential and most of it played out.

Good draft, Mark. Valid strategy. I see balance and a reliance on a core of proven veterens. This team could have easily challenged.

[ January 25, 2007, 06:12 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 25, 2007 10:29 am

for those of you not liking kent, i took him at pick 83. his NFBC main event adp was 64. i got him a full round after the avg.

as for sweeney, i took him at pick 233. his NFBC main event adp was 191. i got him a full two rounds after the avg.

i wasn't big fans of either of those two, but they represented good value (or so i thought). at the draft table.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Jan 25, 2007 11:29 am

There was nothing wrong with the Kent pick (as of last year's draft) except that it didn't work - the pick was fine Mark.

Now Sweeney, OTOH, is a desperation pick, BUT we don't know the status of the hitters at your particlular draft, so can only say that it was a poor pick based on his contributions for the last several years. If he ever stays healthy (again) for most of a season, the person who wished him onto their team will have a nice plus. Sadly, especially since he is a really good guy, I don't see that happening - and if it did this year, the Royals would likely trade him in a flash if they could get a good enough prospect for him and it was to a contending team (so they could tell their fans they were giving him a shot at a pennant race as his goodbye present). It would alleviate their logjam at 1B/DH and get a younger bat in the lineup.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Jan 25, 2007 11:41 am

I agree on KENT, he went in the 5th round in many leagues.CO CO CRISP went in the 3rd round in the Ultimate,and big money in auction leagues.

Pierre wasnt a bust , but would have taken a power hitting 300 hitter and get my speed another way.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 25, 2007 11:59 am

so they could tell their fans they were giving him a shot at a pennant race as his goodbye present I recall Royals fans actually booing last year when Sweeney hurt himself after only being back for like two days. I think they'll get over the loss of him.

I hope all you guys who love Kent play against me this year.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Jan 25, 2007 12:39 pm

It's not like we love Kent , but in the last nine years [going into last season] he's driven in 100 rbi's or more 8 out of 9 years, his off year was 93.He's been so durable year and year out.BUT age has finally caught up to him.

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Fri Jan 26, 2007 6:35 am

Originally posted by Vander:

P.S. Wickman couldn't K my grandmother and she's dead. Why pan the Wickman pick in this draft? I'll take 33 saves, an ERA under 3.00, and a K rate of 7 per 9 any year in middle rounds when the elite closers are already off the board.

Anyway, I feel it was solid draft, a lot of guys who were injury riskd going in, and some bad luck injuries like Crisp hurt. Personaly, I would have grabbed a SP earlier.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Jan 26, 2007 7:08 am

Ok the Wickman pick wasn't bad where he took him. I had him in 2005 too. I learned after that experience though to try to get better rp's. My worst catagory the last 2 years is K's. Partially due to rp's that don't get any.