Week 9 Gekko_Jeopardy

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 3:48 pm

Only 2 weeks left in this contest!!!

Each week I will pick the poster with the best response (as judged by Gekko) to my question. After ten weeks is up, I (or Greg) am going to put each weekly winner's name on a piece of paper, throw them into a hat, and pick an overall winner AT RANDOM. The overall winner will win free entry into the Web Content Panel Draft in March where the format is winner-take-all for a $500 NFBC credit.

Week 1

Question = This player has the best chance to be the 2007 NFBC version of fantasy football’s LaDainian Tomlinson. In other words, this player has the best chance at dominating all other fantasy players and carrying the most NFBC teams into “money” finishes.

Winners = EliGrimmett (Matt Holliday) & duggan (Alfonso Soriano)

Week 2

Question = In 2006 this player hit 15 or less homeruns in the major leagues. In 2007 he hit over 30 homeruns.

Winner = EliGrimmett (Kevin Kouzmanoff)

Week 3

Question = This pitcher never had 20 wins in a season until 2007.

Winners = headhunters (Ervin Santana) & poopy tooth (Jason Schmidt)

Week 4

Question = This player led the Major Leagues in RBI's in 2007.

Winners = poopy tooth and KJ Duke (David Ortiz)

Week 5

Question = This pitcher racked up the most saves for any pitcher who wasn't their team's closer on Opening Day 2007.

Winner = King of Queens (Akinori Otsuka)

Week 6

Question = This team won the 2007 World Series.

Winner = MGBMARTY (Detriot Tigers)

Week 7

Question = This 2007 rookie made the biggest impact in the NFBC.

Winner = Sheep (Delmon Young)

Week 8

Question = This player had less than 10 stolen bases in 2006, and then stepped on it and produced more than 30 in 2007.

Winner = Phoenix (Howie Kendrick)

On to the Week 9 question...This player had an ADP in the top 10 entering 2007, but was then the biggest flop of the ten.

Message Board Posters...Who is this player and why? Choices have to come from:

Albert Pujols 1B STL 1.21

Alfonso Soriano OF CHC 2.62

Jose Reyes SS NYM 3.59

Alex Rodriguez 3B NYY 4.21

Ryan Howard 1B PHI 5.09

Carl Crawford OF TB 6.35

Johan Santana P MIN 7.76

Chase Utley 2B PHI 7.79

Carlos Beltran OF NYM 9.18

David Ortiz DH BOS 10.06

[ February 12, 2007, 10:11 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Ballfour · Post by **Ballfour** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 4:08 pm

Who is Carlos Beltran. Never seems to be able to put two great years together in a row. Batting average always suspect and SB's down the last two years. A very good player but will disappoint

RODGER · Post by **RODGER** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 7:41 pm

Who is Jose Reyes?

The man will certainly continue to provide steals if he remains healthy, but that is not what people look for with the #2 or #3 overall selection in a draft.

Too many people have such a flawed tendency to think players will continue to improve on their numbers each year, but this belief so often turns out to be delusional wishful thinking.

Reyes hit .300 in 2006, so now he will be expected to be a .300 hitter. There is very little chatter about the .268 average he had over the previous two seasons or that his only minor league season with a .300 average came in single-A ball six years ago.

After producing 19 Home Runs in 2006, Reyes will be thought of as a base-stealer who can also provide more than just a little pop. How quickly people have forgotten that he never showed any signs of power on any level before last season. In five years of play in the minors and majors, Reyes combined for 27 total HR in 2500 At Bats before 2006. If he reaches double-digits in 2007, it would be a shock.

With 81 RBIs from the leadoff spot on an NL team, Reyes was producing everywhere in 2006. The return to reality in power numbers and batting average will result in a reduction of at least 20% in the RBI category.

If Jose Reyes puts up a 2007 stat line of .274 - 6 - 58 - 108 - 58, he will be a very solid fantasy player, but his ADP ranking will have been grossly overrated and his owners will have passed on way too many better players at the top of the draft to feel very happy about considering him a #2 or #3 overall pick.

[ February 13, 2007, 01:49 AM: Message edited by: RODGER ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 7:18 am

Paging Edwards Kings to discuss Howard's meaningless fly ball stats.

duggan · Post by **duggan** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:06 am

WHO IS JOSE REYES? IT IS NOT BECAUSE HE DOES NOT HAVE THE TOOLS TO REPEAT BUT SIMPLY THAT HIS VALUE IS MAINLY BASED ON SPEED,,, HE IS JUST ONE HAMSTRING PULL AWAY FROM GOING FROM FANTASY STUD TO A "GOOD" BALLPLAYER. IF MEMORY SERVES HE DOES HAVE A HISTORY IN THAT REGARD.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:13 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Paging Edwards Kings to discuss Howard's meaningless fly ball stats. You want me to talk about that or the fact he strikes out nearly a third of the time? No matter, this is Mark's slot to give away his spot. I already have one.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:25 am

Who is ARod? It's not that his number won't be great, because they will. The bigger problem for me is that there are too many 3B to waste a top 5 pick on ARod. You have Cabrera, Wright, Ramirez and Atkins. I'm not saying any of these others will outperform ARod, even though they might. The problem is, you "get lucky" and he's still there at #5, so you grab him, right? You have 4 people picking behind you with a 3B of similar value and a second pick ahead of you. I think you put yourself in the hole by grabbing him. He's a great foundation, but the improvement of others, knocks his value down a little.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:56 am

You could take 2. In a private league last year my first 3 picks were all 3b and I finished first. Nothing wrong with it if it works. 1 of them though was Figgens who I used at 2b.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:33 am

Who is Johan Santana?

2004 228IP 2005 231.7IP 2006 233.7IP Pitchers break down easier than hitters and someone of Johans skill and talent will not be rushed back. On a personal note 3 years ago I took Prior in 1st Round Pick 8 and he put me behind the eight ball for the rest of that year Just my gut on pitchers and why I would never take 1 in 1st round

Marty

baggler · Post by **baggler** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:37 pm

Who is Alfonso Soriano ?!!!

On opening day against Cincinatti. Aaron Harang has k'd Soriano twice. It's the sixth inning and Cincinatti is winning 9-1 and embarrasing Big Lou's team in Chi-town's opener. Soriano steps to the plate in his third at bat and fly's out to center going 0-3 for the day. Soriano frustrated doesn't run out the flyball...Big Lou waits for Soriano to return to the dugout and proceeds to follow Soriano to the bat rack punching Soriano in the face and shattering his orbital bone.

Soriano is done for the 2007 season and the Cubbies curse is continued for another year.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 2:09 pm

That's good stuff. Why haven't you posted before.

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 1:36 pm

Who is Ryan Howard?

Howard, slated to bat immediately ahead of Pat Burrell, finds himself all too happy to take the free pass so that Burrell can strike out to end the inning.

Howard, now a known feared masher instead of a happy go lucky 2nd year player, receives different treatment from opponent pitching staffs. Howard, given more walks and fewer pitches to hit, succumbs to the pressure of repeating his monster 2006, hits fewer home runs and increases his strikeouts.

The pressure and pitching attention causes his average to fall below .300 and reverts closer to his 2004 AAA minor league batting average of .270, when he was a somewhat-old-for-a-prospect 24.

His runs decrease as no one hits him in, he has scant baserunning ability, and he does not drive himself in as often.

All this makes Howard into what he will be for 2007, another Jim Thome. A nice player, but not top 10 nice.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 7:16 pm

Good Howard response, even after I made light of him as a candidate.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 12:16 pm

bump on this. less than two weeks left before a winner is chosen. any poster can post their answer to the question.

Mudster · Post by **Mudster** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 12:35 am

Who is Chase Utley? This answer has nothing to do with Utley's numbers that he will put up, but with his so-called "position scarcity". Utley's ADP has been much higher than what his stats should allow him to be. Granted, 100-30-100-15-.300 is nice, but does not translate into early 1st round consideration. The 2nd base roster could easily suprise this year with big years possibly coming from the likes of Weeks, Kinsler, Barfield, Cano, Roberts, etc. Several 2nd basers will be double digit in hr's and sb's with a couple most likely going 20-20. Utley will be a disappointment in the aspect that the people drafting him will not get a true 1st round power player and will find themselves trailing statistically to those who grabbed 2nd basemen in the 4th round or later.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 1:03 am

Very nice post Mudster. I see we are of the same "don't put too much stock into position scarcity" camp. At least not when laying the foundation for your team. Utley is great, but not top 10.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 1:16 am

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

Very nice post Mudster. I see we are of the same "don't put too much stock into position scarcity" camp. At least not when laying the foundation for your team. Utley is great, but not top 10. Keep in mind that Chase Utley was only the 15th player IN MAJOR LEAUGE HISTORY to hit .300 with 200 hits, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 40 doubles, and 130 runs scored. 15th player EVER to accomplish those feats -- regardless of position.

Not Top 10? I beg to differ.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 1:24 am

Ok Queen, I'll give you 11!!!

he has great stats, but I do think there is an overemphasis placed on position scarcity in a lot of cases. Still finishing projections for 2007, so I can't rule it out, but I will say, his runs total will decrease, as will most of his fantasy stats, with the exception of possibly RBI...nothing major

Mudster · Post by **Mudster** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 3:13 am

If Utley were to put a little more muscle on and translate some of those doubles into dingers, I'd say he'd be worth it, but i'm banking that he drops down about 20 runs scored without any other numbers increasing. I'm not saying he isn't worth a top tier second round pick or even a tail end of the first round, but I don't want to take those stats early and hope to make up for them when second base is going to produce some talent that can be had several rounds later.

BigHurt · Post by **BigHurt** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 7:08 am

Who is Carl Crawford. Not because of numbers, that would be Howard. However, the first time Delmon Young strikes out he will undoubtably become enraged, wheel around and chuck his bat into the chest of the on-deck hitter, which the last time I checked, is slated to be our boy Carl. Crawford is out for 50 days recovering and you just wasted your #6 pick.

Gerry ScottoDiMarco · Post by **Gerry ScottoDiMarco** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 7:29 am

Who is "Ryan Howard"!

Assuming everyone stays healthy from the top 10 list, my vote is Ryan Howard.

It will be hard for him to hit to duplicate his 2006 numbers, and to make my point, I will use a player I selected during the 2006 NFBC draft to make my case.

I selected Mark Teixeira 3rd overall pick in Chicago 2 last year. He was in everyone's Top 4 last year, and he was a "lock" to hit 45+ homeruns.

Teixeira finished 69th overall according to NFBC (628 .282 99 33 110 2), quite a fall in expected value from a player on an upward trend and in a hitter’s park (similar to Howard's credentials). Tons of other first baseman drafted later in the draft outperformed the Texas Slugger, which made the pain all the more unbearable. I could have taken Vlad or Crawford (frequently listed as the 4th and 5th ranked players in 2006) and faired much better.

I honestly believe that Utley will be the Top 2B in 2007 (so his owner will be happy with the results), unless the Cubs shift Soriano back to 2B. You can't guarantee that Howard will even be in the top 5 1B; even if hits 40 HR in 2007.

Finally, Although Utley seems like a good choice to disappoint, Utley benefits from Howard's power and Rollins speed. Howard has Burrell for protection this year. Advantage Utley.

I think Howard can be a top 10 player again in 2007, but out of the group of players listed, I think he is the "most likely" to finish out of the top 5 at his position and disappoint his ownersand thus be the biggest "flop".

[ February 18, 2007, 05:39 PM: Message edited by: Gerry Scotto Di Marco ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:03 pm

Week 9 winners...

cribgusto (Ryan Howard)

Gerry Scotto Di Marco (Ryan Howard)

RODGER (Jose Reyes) - received bonus points for good analysis

all three of you will get your names thrown in the hat next week. good job.

Week 10's question will be posted tomorrow. Week 10 will conclude Gekko Jeopardy for 2007. All weekly winners names will be thrown into a hat and Greg or Tom will randomly pick the winner. That person will earn a free entry into Web Content Panel Draft in a few weeks. The person who wins that league gets a $500 NFBC credit