Slow and Steady vs Risk and Upside

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:21 am

Understood and I think you made your point well. A significant number of the Top 10 or Top 15 WILL disappoint...happens every year. You have identified Utley as one you do not think actual results will warrant such a high pick by October. Thanks for sharing.

I will say that this year, from my point of view, 2B is the only position where one player is head and shoulders above the rest. Sure, there are other positions where one player is standing out, projections-wise (Pujols, Reyes, Soriano), but I am not going to cry if I don't get one of those because there are other very-high value alternatives. 2B? Not so much (and no, I am not going to cry if I don't get Utley either)!

[ February 28, 2007, 10:22 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:50 am

Qhahogs - They are about 3 points apart, which is very close. Lofton's avg of 301 v. Ramirez 278 nudges him ahead a little. Just my opinion. I'm not at all a fan of Ramirez, but yes, I would pick him ahead of Lofton. I have initially projected them both to score 83 runs. If Lofton looks like he'll lose playing time, I'll adjust.

King - It looks like we agree, just have different values on players. Yes, I think Utley will disappoint for a 1st rd pick.

With that said, I do realize avg is very difficult to project and a 10 point swing in avg will make a big difference in impact.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:28 am

poopy and others - seems like many of you have spent much time doing projections and studying other peoples. my guess is from a math point of view there is a "correct way" to value players- but i don't know that anyone has proven their formula to be correct. having said that- my question is: are the values posted on this website for 2006 at least close to being correct? my assumption-( maybe wrong) is they are specific to the actual league ( nfbc) if they are- then it would seem position scarcity did exist last year. poopy- i think you stated your premise incorrectly. " position scarcity" for catchers last year was percieved to be greater than it was- because so many late round catchers performed well. but if you define "position scarcity" in the old fantasy football way- it can exist. the easiest example is 2 teams have to draft 3 players and play one of each wr, rb and te. if you make the 2 te's #'s lower than wr and rb but the difference greater between the 2- you must take the te with highest points first- or you will lose. just because we draft 23 players doesn't mean it doesn't apply. what you are really saying poopy- no getting around it is- the spread on utely to the other 14 2b that must start and the next 15 ss/2b that might start ( your mi) is not as great as it is with say outfielder 1 and outfielder 5. you could be correct- i like many second basemen. but i like many outfielders also- tuff choice. my point is- if stats from this websight are even close to correct ( they have utely as #19 rated PLAYER- not hitter) then he was a first round pick last year ( assuming only santana gets taken as pitcher in round one). even better- look at the early drafted second base last year- they all under achieved- or got hurt. ugla and phillips were waiver wire in many leagues. i like other players at 7-8 instead of utely- but certainly- as an example of " scarcity" last years ACTUAL performance indicates to me- he was a good pick- and a good example of position scarcity.

rfitzg23 · Post by **rfitzg23** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:30 am

This is only my second post but I thought some of the players and views were really interesting so I wanted to add some commentary.

Who do you think is the first rounder in this equation?

Player A = .329 33 116 92 15

Player B = .326 34 116 119 10

Pretty close right? Player A is Vlad Guerrero and player B is Matt Holliday. Holliday is typically going mid-2nd round, Mr. Vlad Top 10 (ish). So to me when you're looking at 1st round players you do need to take into account what you may have coming to you in the 2nd round. I'd much rather grab an Ortiz/Wright/Cabrera type in the mid-first round and piggyback that with a Holliday than pass them over to take Vlad.

The other thing as it relates to the chat about Utley is I don't view him as a slam dunk early/mid first rounder. He's had two years of great stats, but who is to say he doesn't "regress" a little this year. We can all predict 30+ hr's, 110+ rbi's - that doesn't mean he is a lock for that. He could settle in at .285 25 100 15 (sb's) - for a 2B that is great, but for a Top 8 pick maybe not.

So I actually have Utley more in the 10 - 12 range.

It's all about what flavor ice cream you like best!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:39 am

I feel that those worthy of being drafted in the first round are those who have...

Performed at the highest level.

Done so for enough years to show reliability.

Has consistently remained healthy.

If one of these is missing...your risk level increases. Nothing wrong with that...that's gambling. But I feel that is why Vlad earns his early draft pick each season.

~Lance

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 9:42 am

Poopy... just typing that makes me feel like I'm with the grandkids... anyway, do you ever feel like you're overthinking things and maybe let the draft come to you more than you project on the draft?

Your rotowin, home of the 1000 big list signature reminds me of a friend in fantasy a few years ago who went off the deep end in his "studying". He studied each of 700 players numbers in depth (we only drafted 300) and even googled each player. He wanted to find out if each players parents were still alive, it would be a minus next to the players names who were fortunate enough to have a parent living as that player might have to take funeral leave during the year.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:36 am

ok, doughboys, even i was laughing at that...

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:44 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Spy, nice thought-provoking thread. I don't necessarily disagree, but would like to see more examples. The F. Hernandez was useful. How about a drafted team of 'reliable veterans' that did well?

Poopy, your post is crap.

You are a smart guy so I'm not trying to s all over your idea

, but my projection is for 116 runs, 35 homeruns, 111 RBI's, .288 average, and 15 stolen bases. It's virtually identical to yours. The main difference is probably that I see him healthy and getting 650 at bats. In my scenario, he is the 10th most valuabe player (INDEPENDENT of positional scarcity) by my system. In yours, he is 21st. The point is really that there isn't as much difference between a # 10 and #20 player as we might like to think. That being the case, positional scarcity comes into play. But even if it doesn't, I see him as a top 10. Holliday, by the way, is a bad comparison because he is horribly undervalued

. I have been trying to figure out since last season (when I got him in the 6th round in a satellite!) why people just seem to hate him, but I haven't been able to figure that out yet. It works for me! Hi,

Thanks Bjoak. Well Jeremy Hermedia comes to mind, I won't be the one taking Delmon Young before the 11th round, and you can bank on that.

Just for fun let's look at Vinnie's Team (#1 Last Year by a Ton). Here was his draft:

ROUND PICK PLAYER POS

1 5 Carl Crawford LF

2 11 Alfonso Soriano LF

3 5 Lance Berkman 1B

4 11 Randy Johnson SP

5 5 Huston Street CL

6 11 Barry Bonds LF

7 5 Jason Schmidt SP

8 11 Jason Varitek C

9 5 Justin Morneau 1B

10 11 Curt Schilling SP

11 5 Jorge Posada C

12 11 Carlos Guillen SS

13 5 Shawn Green RF

14 11 Wily Mo Pena RF

15 5 Francisco Liriano SP

16 11 Mike Cameron CF

17 5 Pedro Feliz 3B

18 11 Mike Mussina SP

19 5 B.J. Upton 3B

20 11 Luis A. Gonzalez 2B

21 5 Carl Everett DH

22 11 Brandon McCarthy MR

23 5 Joey Devine MR

24 11 Carl Pavano SP

25 5 Frank Thomas DH

26 11 Ryan Wagner MR

27 5 Corey Koskie 3B

28 11 Brett Tomko SP

29 5 Jeff Bagwell 1B

30 11 Miguel Batista SP

Note that he didn't take a single player you would consider a Rookie until Liriano. He took established players, who had previously demonstrated results. He did take a few injury risks of course, but that was because they were the highest potential player at the time.

I on the other hand, fell for the "dream" and took F. Hernandez (5th), and J. Hermidia (9th). I also took Liriano and Hanley R. but I took those at the right time - 15th and 23rd rounds...

Spy

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:50 am

if he would have posted that draft after the draft- no one- and i mean no one- would have said he was going to romp. it was nice that he got the first 3 - nice start, and it's looks like a good team- but to romp. no way i sorta hope i am luke warm on my team- sometimes that is better.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 1:00 pm

Really? I think picks like Frank Thomas were obvious huge values, we wanted to pick him in the 20th in our league but missed. I wouldn't have guessed the pitching would have been so good, or that Morneau was such a stud but overall I would have rate the team pretty well

joey m · Post by **joey m** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 1:37 am

Looking at the champs draft from last year something else jumped out at me. He took what I would have considered a baseline closer (Huston Street) in Round 5 and they never took another the entire draft. He did take some reach guys in Joey Devine and Ryan Wagner later in the draft but certainly DID NOT leave the draft with two closers.

I have tried similar strategies in prior years with varied success. Two years ago I was able to pick up Brian Fuentes and Kyle Farnsworth who ended the year closing for the Braves. Last year I ended up with the likes of Ambiorix Burgos, Kenny Ray, and Seth McClung. In 2005 I won my league and finished 13th overall. In 2006, I believe I finished 7th in my league and 187th or so overall. I also lost my #1 pick (Derek Lee) early in the year.

Anyway, my point is ultimately you need things to fall into place no matter what your strategy. When your strategy works as well as it did for last year champ, it ends up looking like the model for success. No knock, but look at where our 2005 Champ finished overall in 2006. He took Johan Sanatana with his first pick in 2006 at pick 5 i believe. Some would argue you should never take a picture that early bt a Champion player did just that last year.

Finally, I'd like to hear other thoughts regarding drafting of closers, i.e. solidifying two bona fide closers, 1 baseline/ couple of fliers, what round to take your 1st one. I've found that drafting closers goes one big run during the draft. Many times you'll be eyeeing an offensive player and the closer run begins, you know its begun, its 11 picks before your next pick, the cream of the crop closers are off the board, do you take the next best closer with your next selection or do you take that offensive player you've been holding out for???

I'll add one thing, I've never given much consideration to closers, but it is exhausting and frustrating to scour the waiver wire and free agent pool to find your next closer. Like I said I've had both success and failure (of course, not simply because of my closer situation0 and I'm still not sure its the same plan I want to take into this years draft.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:55 am

Team 1 grabs 2 closers early and can sleep at nights. Team 2 comes out of the draft with 1 1/2 and their roster will be dripping with middle men. However team 2 was compensated with a Jim Thome while team 1 counters with a Mike Jabobs.

It becomes a race between team 1 and 2. Can team 2 find a 2nd closer fast enough to make up save ground between the two ? Can team 1 use the extra FA $ and reserve spots to find the extra offense to close the Jacobs /Thome gap ??

Fun stuff !

Q

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:00 am

spy- i said it looks like a good team- did you think it would romp- beat the field by 200 points? doubt it

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:02 am

quohogs- well said

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:45 am

ADP is useful tool – like most other tools. I have players that I project far better or worse then the mainstream (ADP). Early in the draft you might have to gamble that the player will still be there a round later – say I have Manny #12, Vlad #13 and both are there in when I pick at 13. Knowing ADP has Vlad ahead of Manny, I would take the lesser player (in my rankings) and increase my chance of getting both Manny & Vlad. This may backfire and I may actual get stuck with my 18th ranked player. Change my list to include Patterson at #11, Manny & then Vlad. Knowing that Patterson has an ADP, which should to allow me to get him with pick 43, I could leave him on the board during first two rounds.

Looking at Vinnies Championship team – I would say BA would be a problem, MI is weak, along with closer issues. I would think that ADP showed him that DH’s (Everett 21.5 & Hurt 25.5) could be had late. I find huge discounts in DH numbers vs position players

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:13 am

Vinnie teams, he also did a good job on the waiver wire,Francisco Cordero grabbed 22 saves , Cordero with Street and McCLUNG all add up.

He also grabbed Brandon Phillps in the main and the ultimate.I bid 113 for him in the ultimate but he bid 123 , that was a huge pickup in both leagues for him.Think about it , in the main he had Gonzalez at 2nd base , and then he upgraded with Phillps and those 25 steals.

The Champ always does a great job on the waiver wire.He also won the Ultimate his 1st year and the waiver wire was big for him that year, Howard , Tracy were two monster pickups.

He's a great fantasy player and i cant wait to go to battle with him again this year.

OH YEAH , and he's from R.I. fANTASY LAND STUDS

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:15 am

eddie- saw that- and i agree. i was outdid for ugla by $10. it hurts

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:26 am

Each year I have left the draft with one top tier and one second tier closer. Then last year, closers fell into my lap. At one time I had the two I drafted in Ryan and Borowski (who offset each other nicely), picked up Otsuka the week before he got the job, then picked up Franciso Cordero when he was dropped. I ended up having to drop one because I couldn't burn two reserves spots on closers.

Made me feel that I had (and probably did) leave value at the table during the draft because I picked the second closer. Then I remember the previous year where I spent BIG on the guy who was sure to succeed as closer for SF (I think), Matt Herges. That was a fun melt down to watch! :rolleyes:

I am keeping my options open. If I have a chance to lock up a second, decent closer at a reasonable pick (say 11-15), I will. With only two players, I can rest easier on one category and concentrate more on the others. If I don't get a solid second, I know opportunities will arise in the FAAB.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:57 am

The closer strat kills me as well. Last year in my 2 teams I took Lidge (thought the very safe play), then augmented by dempster in one and izzy in the other. Suffice it to say, that probably lost me a ton of points. The only thing worse than not being able to find a closer is to pay allot for 'safe' closers then watch him implode...

Bruce in FL · Post by **Bruce in FL** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:34 am

Strategy is definitely interesting. Kindof like poker. Everyone knows how to play (Hold'Em tournaments), but people get their own styles that match their personality, and sometimes they win, sometimes they don't. Now of course if a player you have ranked (using whatever rankings you use) falls to you , you take him. Then let's be honest, at the end what do we use? Guts and coins. There is my 2 cents (although I do not use a penny for my coin, I try to bring a quarter or 2). Good luck to all in the drafts. Bruce

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:39 am

Have any of the top 2 closers in one season...been a top 2 closer the following season? (NFBC era.)

~Lance

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 9:02 am

Gagne

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sat Mar 10, 2007 10:39 am

Interesting conversation about closers. This was my experience last year (not NFBC league but similar):

Last year I gambled and did not take an elite closer. I drafted Chris Ray as my top closer and then grabbed Keith Foulke. Needless to say, I hated Papelbon last season. Eventually, I added Putz and then Cordero. I finished 4th in saves but it's not a good feeling to be near the bottom in saves even if it only is the middle of May.

Also, I was fortunate that I bid enough for Putz and that he had such a strong season. The huge blow was gambling on Foulke who certainly added some unnecessary stress to the season. Like some previous posts have stated, there is not one foolproof strategy in this game of skill but also chance/luck.