Who is the better Drafter?

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Mon Jul 16, 2007 5:52 am

Several times I have seen lots of discussion around the question of who is the better drafter. Is it the person who picks the player early who performs well (going against conventional wisdom), or is the person who picks the same player later (gets a value pick, but puts at risk getting the player)?

Just curious what people think on this topic

Spy

[ July 19, 2007, 03:46 PM: Message edited by: Spyhunter ]

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:29 am

I don't think the answer to the "who's a better drafter" question comes that easily.

You're describing multiple skills in your question. There's the skill of correctly predicting player performance. There's also the skill of evaluating your fellow draftees and anticipating their actions. The first skill is easy to measure.

With the second skill, there's no real way to know if you could have let Phillips go without having each person volunteer their thought process as it stood on draft day. In an event like the NFBC, you're often with 10-14 people whose predilections and tendencies are unknown to you, so it'd be questionable as to how much you the second skill could be a factor.

The best way to compare drafting skill is to have each player draft with the same people, in the same drafting position. As that's impossible, next best thing is to just add up your total stats for the teams you drafted and see how they came out.

There are too many variables involved to isolate a certain player in one year and draw conclusions on drafting acumen. Unless, of course, it was a terrible reach.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:32 am

Crazy talk.

And yes, in a left-handed (Sorry Andy) way, you were slamming Gekko. His league is no weaker than yours. You are basing your thoughts and criticisms on one player.

You were right about Phillips, pat yourself on the back and move on.

You also picked Cantu in the 14th round and Prior in the 19th round, if they weren't picked in another league, would that make YOUR league the weaker league?

All players, and leagues for that matter, have hits and misses, all part of the game.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:33 am

Crib, excellent points. I was just posing the question because there have been several attempts to try and quantify. For example, 2 years ago, there was the Average Draft Pick analysis that showed who got the best 'value'. People ridiculed this analysis (though I liked it) as it penalized people who went out side the box.

Spy

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:48 am

I remember that analysis and thought it was interesting too (maybe because it listed me as one of the better drafters).

But ultimately, it only measures a person's ability to draft relative to ADP, which is clearly not a useful measuring tool.

It doesn't matter what my ADP successes were if the players stink. This means you, Contreras, Burrell, Craig Monroe, Nelson Cruz.

This year I had a clear ADP failure in "reaching" for Edgar Renteria at pick 76. So far, so good.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:51 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Crazy talk.

And yes, in a left-handed (Sorry Andy) way, you were slamming Gekko. His league is no weaker than yours. You are basing your thoughts and criticisms on one player.

You were right about Phillips, pat yourself on the back and move on.

You also picked Cantu in the 14th round and Prior in the 19th round, if they weren't picked in another league, would that make YOUR league the weaker league?

All players, and leagues for that matter, have hits and misses, all part of the game. Doughboys, I agree that focusing on 1 player doesn't answer the question of who has the weaker or stronger league. I was just trying to illustrate a question that has been a point of discussion.

As for slamming Gekko, I don't think that pointing out that he got a great player at a very low pick is slamming him. Though perhaps you are right I was slamming his league for letting him fall that far

On the Cantu/prior point, I would agree - our league would have had a weaker draft if we were the only league to draft them (assuming someone of actual value was drafted in their place).

Spy

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:31 am

you can call me what you want to...good or bad drafter. all leagues are different. but along side whatever you call me, i hope it also says 100K Champ come October

as far as the auction, don't worry, there is lots of time for me to pass you and get in the money.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:09 pm

iWAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET Brandon Phillps in one league in the 8th round, what value.

IN THE MID SEASON LEAGUES he went in the 2nd round and 3rd round,in the drafts i was in.

I was able to land him in one mid season league in the 3rd round late, great value..

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Mon Jul 16, 2007 3:07 pm

Phillips in the 12th?? That's CRAAAZY, regardless of what people think about the league. Wouldn't we all want to be in a league like this?

kgrady · Post by **kgrady** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:36 am

Each year there are players like Brandon Phillips where a wide range of opinions will exist regarding his value. He was a hot prospect a few years back in Cleveland, but things never worked out for whatever reason(s). The change of scenery gave him a second chance and he took advantage of it. The big question going into this season was whether he could sustain his 2006 performance. Admittedly, I was not particularly high on Phillips coming into the year. He went in round 5 in NY7 so he didn't last long enough to reach the point where I would have seriously considered him. Not sure exactly where that would have been, but probably about the 9th round. Curiously, I did draft Phillips in my local auction league, largely because I got him at a good price. I wouldn't say I was "smart" to draft him; it was a matter of understanding that he was a good risk at a low price. The fact that bidding did not escalate much was luck.

Kevin

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:38 am

LOL, the point of this thread wasn't to discuss Phillips good or bad. It was to illustrate the question of 'what is the best drafter'? The person who takes a pick where he thinks the person will perform at? or someone who just focuses on picking up value picks?

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:07 am

Doughboys, I prefer the term "back-handed" compliment.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:38 am

Tough question.

The person who ignores the ADP, or exploits it?

I'd go with the guy who makes the most money at drafting.

~Lance

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:26 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

LOL, the point of this thread wasn't to discuss Phillips good or bad. It was to illustrate the question of 'what is the best drafter'? The person who takes a pick where he thinks the person will perform at? or someone who just focuses on picking up value picks? The answer should be.....neither.

The best drafter is one that pinpoints his most well-projected players and drafts them just ahead of his leaguemates and yet has the flexibility to know that a player that should already be off the board is still available and make allowances to get that player as well.

Flexibility is the key.

Of course, I don't practice what I preach since I have Markakis on all and Fielder on all but one of my 10 (5 NFBC) teams this year.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:30 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Doughboys, I prefer the term "back-handed" compliment.

Crafty!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:49 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:

LOL, the point of this thread wasn't to discuss Phillips good or bad. It was to illustrate the question of 'what is the best drafter'? The person who takes a pick where he thinks the person will perform at? or someone who just focuses on picking up value picks? The answer should be.....neither.

The best drafter is one that pinpoints his most well-projected players and drafts them just ahead of his leaguemates and yet has the flexibility to know that a player that should already be off the board is still available and make allowances to get that player as well.

Flexibility is the key.

Of course, I don't practice what I preach since I have Markakis on all and Fielder on all but one of my 10 (5 NFBC) teams this year.

[/QUOTE]Yeah, that's kinda what I do. I figure if I think a guy has 6th round value and he goes 10th, then I try to get him in the 8th or 9th. It doesn't always work but for every guy you don't get there is someone else who fell too far and you get value on someone you never planned on. Or you nix your plans when someone else is there you didn't expect. For it to work, you have to have good projections, and a good way to evaluate the actual worth of the combined projections, while still taking into account what you have and need. No one said it was easy.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:55 pm

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

Phillips in the 12th?? That's CRAAAZY, regardless of what people think about the league. Wouldn't we all want to be in a league like this? What's crazy is evaluating a league based on a single pick. You can look at any league and bitch about one pick. For that matter you can look at one team and say, 'Look at how dumb this guy was to make picks like Kazmir in the 6th or Burke in the 12th or Broxton in the 15th; I want to be in his league,' but that doesn't mean he's not in first place with 114 points.

[ July 17, 2007, 07:58 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:46 pm

115 pts now. For 14 owners to pass on him that many times does say something about the league if you ask me. This was the latest he was selected. The SB/Power potential definitely merited being selected before the 12th round, especially at Phillips position.

BTW you failed to mention in your example that the players were drafted in February, when there was still hope in Broxton closing and Burke playing CF. The Kazmir pick, well I wish I could take that back. He walks way to many people and doesn't have the command I thought he did. Shields is the best pitcher on that staff by far, but doesn't get any recognition.

I know it's only one pick, but can you honestly say you wouldn't want to be in a league where you could get Phillips that late?

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:48 pm

Didn't even realize, you're example isn't apt since all the aforementioned players were drafted right in line with their ADP, not 3 rounds later.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:13 pm

It is just easy to say now because he's been successful. His minor league record didn't come close to approximating what he did in the majors his first year even before you translate the numbers. No one in their right mind was sure he could repeat.

You're talking about a guy who went 3 rounds later than his ADP; there are literally hundreds of guys who fit that description throughout the NFBC leagues. You wouldn't give a hard time to a league that drafted Burke 3 rounds later than his ADP. It is unfair and downright obtuse to think that a league is weak because of where one guy went. As I've said before when my own league was being criticized over the same silliness, you need tons of data before you can even start to think about how to evaluate league strength.

The fact that you are saying your picks only look bad in retrospect only goes to prove the exact point I'm making (even if I don't agree). You can blast every league for not picking up Fielder in round 1, but no one was worried about where he *or* Phillips went on April 1.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:54 pm

With how highly SB's are valued in the NFFC he shouldn't have lasted that long regardless of what you think. Guys like Chris Duffy were selected before the 12th round solely based on SB potential. Add in Phillips power from a weak power position and you should see what I am talking about.

What I couldn't figure out is how Kendrick was selected so high in most drafts. I assumed the AVG would be there this season but not much else. People seemed to have visions of a 20/20 guy out of the gate. It might come, but definitely not this season.

BTW, thanks for the berating for sharing an opinion.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:04 pm

i selected phillips in the 11th round, not 12th.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Jul 18, 2007 7:45 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

obtuse First time this word has ever been used in a fantasy conversation.....

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Jul 18, 2007 8:18 am

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

With how highly SB's are valued in the NFFC he shouldn't have lasted that long regardless of what you think. Guys like Chris Duffy were selected before the 12th round solely based on SB potential. Add in Phillips power from a weak power position and you should see what I am talking about.

What I couldn't figure out is how Kendrick was selected so high in most drafts. I assumed the AVG would be there this season but not much else. People seemed to have visions of a 20/20 guy out of the gate. It might come, but definitely not this season.

BTW, thanks for the berating for sharing an opinion. Not really hitting my points so I'll just repeat: lots of guys went much lower than adp. It happens in every league. And, again, you're evaluating Phillips on one year, which is a bad way to evaluate players. I had him down for 18 stolen bases, which was a) the best number in his line and b) a sensible projection based on his past. I was wrong on this one, but 11th round seems like a sensible place based on that 3 months ago. Kendrick had a phenomenal minor league career, and, no, I didn't have him down for 20-20, but there are three other stats in a fantasy line. When he looks good in 5 places, there is a lot of value there. Again, real easy to critique it when we're 3 months in and he's been on the shelf all year.

It's really sad that you can't see I'm berating you, not because you shared your opinion, but because you yourself berated an ENTIRE league because of one pick out of 450. They could have had 449 players excactly where their adp suggested, or exactly where their real value would end up being but they took Brandon freakin' Phillips 3 rounds too late so whatever.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Jul 18, 2007 8:53 am

The last time I heard the word obtuse, it was used my Andy Dufrain (Tim Robbins) in Shawshank Redemption. I now may have to watch that tonight.