First Overall Pick Debate

Andy Tu La Daddy · Post by **Andy Tu La Daddy** » Sun Nov 25, 2007 1:19 pm

It appears as though, in no particular order that A-ROD, Reyes and Hanley are going to be the top 3 picks in most drafts (as things stand today).

I am curious to hear the arguments for any of these players being the top pick and why they are better than the other two.

Chest Rockwell, my fellow Jacksonville resident, I am looking forward to your response as well as the other NFBC regulars.

colorado · Post by **colorado** » Sun Nov 25, 2007 1:36 pm

I see it as being relative to the position. That is to say that the difference/distance (both being projected) between these players and the next point producer at their position is greater than at other positions. However, the same may be said between these players and the second selection taken by the owner. This is where we tend to differ most as owners. My top 5-10 picks versus your top 5-10 picks.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:13 pm

Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

It appears as though, in no particular order that A-ROD, Reyes and Hanley are going to be the top 3 picks in most drafts (as things stand today).

I am curious to hear the arguments for any of these players being the top pick and why they are better than the other two.

Chest Rockwell, my fellow Jacksonville resident, I am looking forward to your response as well as the other NFBC regulars. You might have a better shot of getting info from Kent if you took him out for dinner!!

I think you really don't have to worry about right now. If you get a top three pick, you might need to start thinking about it.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Mon Nov 26, 2007 12:58 am

amzing how albert's stock has fallen from an almost consensus #1.

Andy Tu La Daddy · Post by **Andy Tu La Daddy** » Mon Nov 26, 2007 1:25 am

Though the draft order has yet to be determined for the NFBC, I actually have the top pick in another league (my prize for finishing just out of the money).

Out of respect for the fierce competition that NFBC owners bring to the table .....

I am wondering who would be your first pick and why, at least as things stand today.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Nov 26, 2007 1:51 am

My only spin is that if the early trend continues (and there is no guarantee of course given spring training), with ARod, HanRam, JRey, and even JimRo or David Wright goining before Pujols, somebody with picks 4-5-6 is going to be very happy.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:10 am

it would be SUCH a terrible thing to be sitting at #6 and be forced to take albert.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:33 am

Originally posted by cleaver beavers:

it would be SUCH a terrible thing to be sitting at #6 and be forced to take albert. Actually it would there is ALOT to not like about Pujols's 07 numbers and the makeup of that team around him.

Andy- shoot me a PM and lets try to grab lunch this week I am as wide open as ever. We will send the bill to Childs he is swimming in NFBC money.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Nov 26, 2007 8:01 am

Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

Though the draft order has yet to be determined for the NFBC, I actually have the top pick in another league (my prize for finishing just out of the money).

Out of respect for the fierce competition that NFBC owners bring to the table .....

I am wondering who would be your first pick and why, at least as things stand today. As of now, I don't think it's close for the #1 pick - ARod was just dominant last year and with the new contract in NY will want to put up equal or better numbers next year - and I don't see that being unreachable for him.

Andy Tu La Daddy · Post by **Andy Tu La Daddy** » Mon Nov 26, 2007 8:02 am

Chest,

I am heading to New Orleans for the week.

Let's catch up afterwards, Jacksonville needs to bring home the big prize in 08!!!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Nov 26, 2007 2:59 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

My only spin is that if the early trend continues (and there is no guarantee of course given spring training), with ARod, HanRam, JRey, and even JimRo or David Wright goining before Pujols, somebody with picks 4-5-6 is going to be very happy. it's J-Roll not JimRo! A little respect for the MVP

[ November 26, 2007, 08:59 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Nov 26, 2007 3:04 pm

Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

It appears as though, in no particular order that A-ROD, Reyes and Hanley are going to be the top 3 picks in most drafts (as things stand today).

I am curious to hear the arguments for any of these players being the top pick and why they are better than the other two.

I think A-Rod and Hanley will be top 2-3 consistently. The next six will bounce around; Reyes lack of power last season brings him back to the top-8 pack.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Nov 27, 2007 12:43 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

My only spin is that if the early trend continues (and there is no guarantee of course given spring training), with ARod, HanRam, JRey, and even JimRo or David Wright goining before Pujols, somebody with picks 4-5-6 is going to be very happy. it's J-Roll not JimRo! A little respect for the MVP

[/QUOTE]Sorry...I got confused...I was trying to come up with some way to truncate David Wright's name, but couldn't...DaWri...Dave W....Wright-Dude...nope, just won't work...

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Nov 27, 2007 1:00 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

My only spin is that if the early trend continues (and there is no guarantee of course given spring training), with ARod, HanRam, JRey, and even JimRo or David Wright goining before Pujols, somebody with picks 4-5-6 is going to be very happy. it's J-Roll not JimRo! A little respect for the MVP

[/QUOTE]He'll always be Tree to me

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 2:02 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

It appears as though, in no particular order that A-ROD, Reyes and Hanley are going to be the top 3 picks in most drafts (as things stand today).

I am curious to hear the arguments for any of these players being the top pick and why they are better than the other two.

I think A-Rod and Hanley will be top 2-3 consistently. The next six will bounce around; Reyes lack of power last season brings him back to the top-8 pack. [/QUOTE]Don't know how Reyes can not be considered #1.

Based on my early projections, I expect H-ram to regress across the board and A-rod to regress in everything but steal, yet still get under 20. While I project Reyes to improve in everything but steals. The real issue here is steals, as I have Reyes at 25 over H-ram and 50 over A-rod, this acoounts for (just under) 15% and 30% of my steals target. That is just too much for those others to overcome.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 2:09 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

My only spin is that if the early trend continues (and there is no guarantee of course given spring training), with ARod, HanRam, JRey, and even JimRo or David Wright goining before Pujols, somebody with picks 4-5-6 is going to be very happy. it's J-Roll not JimRo! A little respect for the MVP

[/QUOTE]He'll always be Tree to me

[/QUOTE]That's funny, to me he's "Henry"

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 2:14 am

Originally posted by Sheep:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

It appears as though, in no particular order that A-ROD, Reyes and Hanley are going to be the top 3 picks in most drafts (as things stand today).

I am curious to hear the arguments for any of these players being the top pick and why they are better than the other two.

I think A-Rod and Hanley will be top 2-3 consistently. The next six will bounce around; Reyes lack of power last season brings him back to the top-8 pack. [/QUOTE]Don't know how Reyes can not be considered #1.

Based on my early projections, I expect H-ram to regress across the board and A-rod to regress in everything but steal, yet still get under 20. While I project Reyes to improve in everything but steals. The real issue here is steals, as I have Reyes at 25 over H-ram and 50 over A-rod, this acoounts for (just under) 15% and 30% of my steals target. That is just too much for those others to overcome.

[/QUOTE]Don't get too used to that mantra at the bottom of your posts

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 7:37 am

Jose Reyes reminds me of Kenny Lofton in his prime.

If Reyes gets his average up a bit (trying less to hit those HR's)...they'd be clones.

I remember year after year of seeing Lofton on those magazine covers in early/mid 90's, and being the first player picked in our home league drafts.

Sweet memories!

~Lance

Tampa Munchers · Post by **Tampa Munchers** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 8:13 am

I think you should take Lofton with your first round pick just to live up those good ol' days

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 10:33 am

Originally posted by Tampa Munchers:

I think you should take Lofton with your first round pick just to live up those good ol' days You know what?

I think you're right...I will make it a point in the 2008 NFBC main event to take Kenny Lofton with my very first pick.

(in the 16th round.)

~Lance

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 5:59 am

What reasons do you have for projecting Hanley and AROD to regress while Reyes progresses? You could argue Hanley's numbers will be down due to Cabrera leaving, but what happened when Soriano went to the Nats? Everyone said he would have a bad year and he had his best year ever. Especially as a leadoff hitter who hits for a high average with lots of steals and a healed shoulder, I don't see any reason for Hanley to regress except maybe a tad in runs and rbi.. if he even does. AROD is the #1 player in fantasy baseball. I have David Wright ahead of both Reyes and Pujols.

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 9:25 am

Why I believe that Hanley Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez will regress in 2008.

1) Hanley is 23, so growth is expected, but…. 2) 2007 Lineup had eight hitters with 400 or more AB’s and all but one (Cabrera the top Marlin Power hitter – HR & RBI – along with OBP) are returning. Overall, the Marlins OBP which was 7th in NL will drop which will negatively effect Hanley’s PA's. NOTE: I’m a Maybin fan, but not for 2008. However, the Marlins might need to showcase him as their return on trading Cabrera. His OBP will be UGLY this coming season 3) The top number nine hitter

(Willis .348 OBP) is gone, even if it is only every fifth day. 4) .353 BABip seems a little high. (I’m projecting .310 to .320 not 2007 -.332) 5) His Runs plus RBI in 2007 was 206 on 212 hits, I’m projecting him to be in the 180 – 190 range. 6) Hanley had 29 homeruns, which is too many for his FB numbers (If I remember correctly, as I don’t have my “overrated” Forecaster in front of me) I have him for between 20 –25. After looking at Shandler's* 48% Flybay rate in the second half - that might not be the reason I think 20 -25 homeruns is where he'll go in 2008.

Assumption number 1 he stays in leadoff position a) less RBI opportunities without Willis every fifth day. b) less runs without Miguel. As team OBP goes down so will his PA, less PA and lower projected OBP leads to lower SB. (Mid to high 40’s, which is down from 51 in 2007)

Assumption number 2 he moves to the three spot a) 30+ less PA then in the leadoff slot b) More RBI/less runs c) less likely to run (IMO) in the heart of the order. He had 176 PA’s in the three hole last season - .297/331/455 well below his overall line.

I’m not calling for a large drop off but expect that if he stays in leading off role that his numbers will decrease across the board and moves to third spot that RBI’s will be his only increase, while runs will decrease by almost as many. Overall, I like the balance of him batting third over leading off. Still I am not saying that he needs to drop out of the first round, but I am not taking him ahead of Reyes. For full disclosure I have Ramirez for $25 (in 2008) in my 18 team head-to-head home league ($300 budget). He exceeded my expectations last season and I certainly won’t complain if he does it again in 2008.

A-Rod should be considered the consensus number one pick coming into 2008. (Just like Phat Albert in 2007, he might have trouble performing to that level

) However, I will again go with the steals issue. What are your offensive targets? If you are aiming for 170 steals, A-rod MAY give you 15% of that total (Again, I do not expect him to reach that level), where Reyes will give you something in the neighborhood of 40-45%. However, back to why A-rod will regress. 2007 was his top season for runs (by 9) and RBI’s (by 14) along with OBP & SLG. Regression to mean is expected. Seems that more then one “baseball guy” has said his name should have been on the Mitchell report.

Now, the why I see Reyes improving in everything but steals, is that I think 2007 was an off year in everything but steals. Again some regression to the mean. 2006/2007: Runs 122/119 HR 19/12 RBI 81/57 BA .300/.280

I also agree that David Wright is a stud , and think he should be in the debate as the top overall pick.

I think most players will rightly go with A-rod number 1, but I am willing to "debate"

that Reyes should be given strong consideration based on the percentage of targeted numbers that he will generate in steals alone.

* Shandler's number's are by way of acknowledgment that his Forecaster is the easy reference and is IMO one of the best reference materials for us fantasy players.

[ December 17, 2007, 05:33 PM: Message edited by: Sheep ]

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 12:14 pm

Not to nit pick.But,Hanley will not get as many RBI chances because Willis (How many games did he have more than one at bat) is not going to be in the line-up every five days is one of the worst arguments I could think of for less RBI's

As someone who attended almost every home game the Marlins played last year.The Marlins had to have the weakest back end of the line-up of any team in baseball.

Most were predicting Miguel Cabrera to have an off year in 2006 due to the Marlins awfull line-up.Hanley,Uggla,and Willingham made the top of the Marlins order pretty good.

The dude is about three times Reyes size so more power should be expected.

[ December 17, 2007, 06:23 PM: Message edited by: DiamondKing ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 12:38 pm

Originally posted by DiamondKing:

Not to nit pick.But,Hanley will not get as many RBI chances because Willis (How many games did he have more than one at bat) is not going to be in the line-up every five days is one of the worst arguments I could think of for less RBI's

ROFLMAO

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 12:57 pm

"Not to nit pick.But,Hanley will not get as many RBI chances because Willis (How many games did he have more than one at bat) is not going to be in the line-up every five days is one of the worst arguments I could think of for less RBI's"

That was why I posted it with

[ December 17, 2007, 06:59 PM: Message edited by: Sheep ]