First Overall Pick Debate

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 2:31 pm

While I also believe Hanley is due for some regression, I don't agree in total with

4) .353 BABip seems a little high. (I’m projecting .310 to .320 not 2007 -.332) Pitcher's BABIP most often fall in the .290-.310 range. Hitter's set their own baseline. Their basal BABIP is driven by LD%, speed and power. It is quite reasonable to expect Ramirez to maintain a BABIP well above the league average.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 12:02 am

I for one dont expect Hanley to hit over 330 ,hit more than 29 homers , and score more runs then he did last year.Even the 50 steals is no lock if they drop him to three in the batting order. I still expect he will be a top 5 pick , and im not sure at this time where i would rank him.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:38 pm

Originally posted by Tampa Munchers:

I think you should take Lofton with your first round pick just to live up those good ol' days Speaking of old days, would there be anyone better than Ricky Henderson for fantasy baseball? How does .290-20-80-80 SB's - 120 runs sound?

Can you say 1st pick? Every year?

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 5:13 am

I think I'd take Nolan Ryan in the early 70's over Ricky. Also, I'm not sure Ricky ever had 80 rbi.

Nolan had 1079 K's, 62 W's, and an ERA well under 3.oo in three years in the early 70's

[ December 21, 2007, 11:14 AM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 6:10 am

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

I think I'd take Nolan Ryan in the early 70's over Ricky. Also, I'm not sure Ricky ever had 80 rbi.

Nolan had 1079 K's, 62 W's, and an ERA well under 3.oo in three years in the early 70's

And nobody was counting his pitches. As I recall his arm did not fall off and went on to play another couple years or so.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 6:40 am

Just a couple...

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 9:11 am

Originally posted by Vander:

quote:Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

I think I'd take Nolan Ryan in the early 70's over Ricky. Also, I'm not sure Ricky ever had 80 rbi.

Nolan had 1079 K's, 62 W's, and an ERA well under 3.oo in three years in the early 70's

And nobody was counting his pitches. As I recall his arm did not fall off and went on to play another couple years or so. [/QUOTE]This fits in with the report out of NY about Joba starting the year in the bullpen to limit his innings. :rolleyes:

Ancient history I know, but when I was a kid Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn locked up in a pitcher's duel in which Willie Mays won it with a homer, 1-0, in the 16th. Both pitchers went the distance, San Francisco's Manager, I think it was Herman Franks wanted to take Marichal out after the 12th. Marichal said, " I keel you if you take me out before that old man!."

[ December 21, 2007, 03:18 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 9:20 am

doughboys- i remember that game- guess when he said "keel" he was serious in at least trying. i really think the whole thing revolves around agents. if a team wanted to go back to the old days- starting in the monors- i think they know the agents wouldn't let it happen. i doubt there is much substance to it other than "why take the risk"

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:36 pm

I think it goes to two things.Moneyif you are paying a guy 25,000 on one year contracts and he blows up it does not hurt so much.When guys like Wayne Garland and Steve Stone started signing long term high dollar contracts and blowing up it hurt a lot more.

Also media.If a manager left a starter in for eight or nine innings and he choked up the game he would have to explain why he did not use the pen.Now if the pen blows the game he can say "I used the system".It was not my fault,I used the guy that was to do that job and he failed.

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 4:18 am

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

I think I'd take Nolan Ryan in the early 70's over Ricky. Also, I'm not sure Ricky ever had 80 rbi.

Nolan had 1079 K's, 62 W's, and an ERA well under 3.oo in three years in the early 70's

Forget Ryan. Look at this monster 5 tool season:

Larry Walker 1997 143 Runs 49 Hrs 130 rbis .366 BA 33SB's

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 6:46 am

[ December 22, 2007, 12:47 PM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 6:47 am

IP 336

W 26

K 382

ERA 2.04

WHIP 0.855

Koufax, 1965

I like this one - I think I'll draft him first pick next year, you can have Walker with the second pick.

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 6:57 am

Eli,

Wow those are some amazing #'s. Looking back at the steroid era no one impresses me more than Pedro Martinez run from 1997-2003.

2000 18 Wins 284K's 1.74 ERA 0.737 WHIP

League average ERA in 2000 was 5.07

What would these numbers have translated Pre-1967?

Crazy that we only got 3 CY Young awards when you luck at the numbers from that run.

Just happy to have him on the sox for 7 years.

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 7:54 am

I'll take Ty Cobb from 1911 over Rickey

.420 8 127 rbi 147 runs & 83 steals..now thats a 1st pick

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 8:18 am

Originally posted by JEagle:

I'll take Ty Cobb from 1911 over Rickey

.420 8 127 rbi 147 runs & 83 steals..now thats a 1st pick In the deadball era I believe he once won a triple crown with 9 homers.

Richie · Post by **Richie** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:50 pm

In that Marichal game, it was his rookie year and he threw 260 pitches. I heard him interviewed and he said that it did not bother him. 4 days later he pitched. have no idea how that game went

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 6:10 pm

Actually it wasn't his rookie year, it was 1963 and one of my first games. I don't remember what he did after that game, but I do remember he had thrown a no-hitter against the Astros two weeks earlier. Now that would have been a nice stretch for a fantasy owner!

Of course two years later he cracked Johnny Roseboro over the head with a bat and got a week long suspension. I wonder what the penalty would be now?

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 5:27 am

This thread has swerved way off topic - and I really doubt there are many who would not take ARod with the first pick........

So let's continue and see who people think should be the second pick.

Personally if there weren't several questions (or if ALL those questions are resolved before the draft gets here) I would probably take Hanley Ramirez..however I think there will still be concerns, so to me I think the pick is either Albert Pujols or Jose Reyes.....what about you?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 7:05 am

Hookie - I don't think arod will be #1 in every league. I doubt I'd take him #1 which is why I'm thinking about putting slot #1 lower on my KDS rankings.

As for #2 it will likely be hram (even though he will have some question marks)

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 7:54 am

Mark, while I can understand anyone not wanting to draft out of the #1 slot, I can't really see anyone else picked before ARod.

IF you do, tell us who YOU think someone else (we know it won't be you) would pick instead?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 9:18 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

IF you do, tell us who YOU think someone else (we know it won't be you) would pick instead? i already did, hram

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 9:23 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

IF you do, tell us who YOU think someone else (we know it won't be you) would pick instead? i already did, hram [/QUOTE]i still have Hram ahead of him...

Andy Tu La Daddy · Post by **Andy Tu La Daddy** » Tue Dec 25, 2007 12:22 pm

Thank you Hook for bringing the topic back to focus.

With Miggy gone from Florida, I no longer consider Hanley a possibility for number one or two.

I'm between A-Rod and Reyes for one and two.

As amazing as A-Rod is, there are 10 other 3rd place hitters/clean up men that could end up with numbers similar to him next year. There is only one Reyes.

fandango · Post by **fandango** » Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:13 pm

i think Reyes is a very risky top 5 pick....he was downright brutal at the end of last year, and his stats crashed....he doesnt have the track record to merit a bump....

i hear his hammys were bothering him late....not good for a speed demon who lost his power and has the worst batting eye....

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 1:27 am

Fandango is correct Reyes had a horrible 2nd half 9hr's , 24 rbi's , and a 253 bavg.

He had 38 steal's in the 1st half and 40 in the 2nd half that was consistent but the number overall pick . I have the number one pick next week and it wont be Reyes , the bavg is my biggest concern.The number one pick has to be a 300 hitter along with other goodies.