2008 Baseball Forecaster

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:17 am

Originally posted by RON@HQ:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Never said everything he wrote was worthless and yes you can take even the smallest, yet very important thing from everything you read. He simply(maybe the wrong word) takes what analysis most of us can do on our own and puts creative overanalyzed acronyms on them, PQS, DOM/DIS, BPI, etc. He is an amazing man with all of his statistical analysis, but I don't and will never put that much weight in his work. Dad, please get off these boards. [/QUOTE]gotta love this, i greatly appreciate and respect your work RS

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Thu Dec 13, 2007 7:55 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

For my friend GLU, did you notice where he had James Shields? #15 I think. If we get a free copy at the main event, I'll read it then.

BTW, #15 is to low.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Dec 13, 2007 12:45 pm

Originally posted by RON@HQ:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Never said everything he wrote was worthless and yes you can take even the smallest, yet very important thing from everything you read. He simply(maybe the wrong word) takes what analysis most of us can do on our own and puts creative overanalyzed acronyms on them, PQS, DOM/DIS, BPI, etc. He is an amazing man with all of his statistical analysis, but I don't and will never put that much weight in his work. Dad, please get off these boards. [/QUOTE]Ha!

I don't think HQ is overrated by those that understand the limitations of any such analysis. The overrated view likely comes by way of those who don't understand such limitations and expect his analysis to yield more "accurate" predictions than is realistic. Fantasy players should not assume that because Ron predicted it, it is a high probability - and there are no doubt people that give his opinions too much weight; so in this regard he may be overrated by some.

I find his analysis useful input. And Doughboys "know what your competition knows (even if you don't agree with it)" comment is spot on too.

[ December 13, 2007, 06:48 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:25 pm

God Loves You im with you on Shields.With over 200 innings and 184 stike outs is a pretty good first year as a full time starter.His control is just unreal just 36 walks , thats a 5 to 1 strike out to walk ratio.I have him in my home league for a dollar[yeah boy] .

Shandler is also my favorite read and his radio show is top notch.

Here's what Shandler wrote about Shields going into last season.

The makings of an impact SP.

For Shandler to use the word impact on Shields is something i kept in the back of my mind, and grabbed him in 3 leagues.

I think Gordon [Gekko] had him last year if i remember . Anyways like Shields and Shandler.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:47 pm

I don't disagree with Hard Heads. I think Shandler can be a useful resource and I agree with most (see above Zambrano reference), not all of his analysis. I don't use his projections but they are important for the reason Doughboys stated. But rewriting a stat as his own, like K/9 as Dom. is a fairly arrogant, phony thing to do. And I'm not sure what business he has coming on these boards to give a hard time to someone who is stating a fairly constructive opinion, particularly as a non-NFBC participant.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Dec 13, 2007 3:48 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

I think Shandler can be a useful resource and I agree with most (see above Zambrano reference), not all of his analysis. have you lowered your BA floor for players with <70% contact rates?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Thu Dec 13, 2007 3:50 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

I don't disagree with Hard Heads. I think Shandler can be a useful resource and I agree with most (see above Zambrano reference), not all of his analysis. I don't use his projections but they are important for the reason Doughboys stated. But rewriting a stat as his own, like K/9 as Dom. is a fairly arrogant, phony thing to do. And I'm not sure what business he has coming on these boards to give a hard time to someone who is stating a fairly constructive opinion, particularly as a non-NFBC participant. Giving him a hard time? I thought I was making a joke. Gotta start using those smilies more often, I guess.

As for renaming common stats, the problem is that, when I first started using those names some 15-20 years ago, the stats weren't all that common. Heck, they weren't used hardly at all. The names were a way to better describe what we were trying to measure and the monikers stuck, at least for my readers. Old habits die hard, I suppose, but you are always free to call them what you wish.

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:22 pm

Sorry son I will go to my room now. LOL

I take no offense to anything anyone has said to me or about me. I am a big boy and can take criticism. I simply gave my two cents about HQ and never said Shandler had nothing of value to say, just simply overrated, but maybe I should've stated, overrated by some. I read as much analysis as possible and do exactly like Doughboys stated and that is take what I feel is important to me from each thing I read, then I make decisions based on that. Shandler, or should I call you son, LOL, has done an amazing job with his analysis and is one of the premier should we call it projectors? So, nothing was meant as a bash of Shandler here, just my opinion and as a newbie that should hold zero weight around here, so take your shots or don't, either way I will wake up in the morning and I will be in the NFBC to see if I belong or not.

Happy Holidays to all and see you soon!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:18 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

I don't disagree with Hard Heads. I think Shandler can be a useful resource and I agree with most (see above Zambrano reference), not all of his analysis. I don't use his projections but they are important for the reason Doughboys stated. But rewriting a stat as his own, like K/9 as Dom. is a fairly arrogant, phony thing to do. And I'm not sure what business he has coming on these boards to give a hard time to someone who is stating a fairly constructive opinion, particularly as a non-NFBC participant. "Lighten up, Francis!"

Sgt. Hulka

Stripes

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:18 am

I have heard whispers that he is absolutely terrible in the clubhouse. I have met him twice kind of comes across to me as the Francis "Psycho" Sawyer type from Stripes- you touch my stuff I will kill you.

"Lighten up, Francis!"

Two Stripes references in a 3-day span, that is why I love these boards.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:51 am

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Shandler is overrated if you ask me. Could you be more specific? Exactly what about shandler is overrated?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 3:06 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

I don't disagree with Hard Heads. I think Shandler can be a useful resource and I agree with most (see above Zambrano reference), not all of his analysis. I don't use his projections but they are important for the reason Doughboys stated. But rewriting a stat as his own, like K/9 as Dom. is a fairly arrogant, phony thing to do. And I'm not sure what business he has coming on these boards to give a hard time to someone who is stating a fairly constructive opinion, particularly as a non-NFBC participant. "Lighten up, Francis!"

Sgt. Hulka

Stripes [/QUOTE]Wayne I would like to be the big toe on your foot when Sgt Hulka is not around. I actually think Francis Sawyer is a little bit more laid back than bjoak.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 5:31 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Shandler is overrated if you ask me. Could you be more specific? Exactly what about shandler is overrated? [/QUOTE]this was my question 3 days ago

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 6:04 am

Cleavage - I wouldn't be surprised if we never received an answer. It's easy for people to sling mud, but tough for them to clean it up.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 8:56 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Cleavage - I wouldn't be surprised if we never received an answer. It's easy for people to sling mud, but tough for them to clean it up.

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 6:44 pm

What's the point gents? I am not here to get into a debate over the value I see in using HQ. What truly does it matter to you guys why I don't like using it as gospel? Slinging mud? I said I felt he was overrated which I honestly don't think Shandler could give one hair off a rat's what I think! Is he going to change the way he does things because I said he was overrated? Are you going to stop reading it cause I think he is a tad overrated? What possible purpose would be served other then to give a couple of egos the opportunity to try and make me look bad? Take care gents!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 1:27 am

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

What's the point gents? I am not here to get into a debate over the value I see in using HQ. What truly does it matter to you guys why I don't like using it as gospel? Slinging mud? I said I felt he was overrated which I honestly don't think Shandler could give one hair off a rat's what I think! Is he going to change the way he does things because I said he was overrated? Are you going to stop reading it cause I think he is a tad overrated? What possible purpose would be served other then to give a couple of egos the opportunity to try and make me look bad? Take care gents! you best check YOUR ego at the door. i'm following up on something YOU said. if you don't have the guts to back up what YOU said, shame on you. AGAIN, could you be more specific as to why you are calling shandler overrated?

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 2:44 am

I have to agree with HH here. He said 1 little thing. His opinion (which I happen to agree with). If anybody has slung mud at Shandler, it's me, over a 2 year period. I consider his odd all math based musings over rated at the least. Bash me if anybody. As Dan said, for me a non believer, looking at Shandler's stuff is still good for seeing what everybody else is reading and in many many cases really altering their draft strategies. I've tried to drop this subject several times, but like Michael Corleon, I keep getting pulled back in.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 3:41 am

Originally posted by Vander:

I've tried to drop this subject several times, but like Michael Corleon, I keep getting pulled back in. Are you going to give Fredo the kiss of death?

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 4:34 am

Thanks Gekko, but I explained why I felt he was overrated in a previous post and if you chose to gloss over that or if that isn't specific enough for you then by all means I apologize, but a long drawn out debate that will allow you to try and insult people(me) is not what you will get. So, reread my post on page 2 of this thread and move on or don't. I said good day sir!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 4:53 am

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Thanks Gekko, but I explained why I felt he was overrated in a previous post and if you chose to gloss over that or if that isn't specific enough for you then by all means I apologize, but a long drawn out debate that will allow you to try and insult people(me) is not what you will get. So, reread my post on page 2 of this thread and move on or don't. I said good day sir!

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

He simply(maybe the wrong word) takes what analysis most of us can do on our own and puts creative overanalyzed acronyms on them, PQS, DOM/DIS, BPI, etc.. I assume this is the post that you are talking about which gives the reason why YOU think he is overated???? I don't think that YOU calling shandler overated based on what you give as a reason is warranted. Just my opinion. The Beav saw it too btw.

Just curious, before shandler came along did you do your own analysis, such as how CT% relates to batting average?

As for me, I think shandler's model is good, but it overvalues SB's.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 5:29 am

I apologize as I didn't actually see this thread at first and dove in too late, but let me just say that Ron is a first-rate guy who definitely has added his share of positives to this industry. His statistical analysis has been pioneering in a lot of ways and I know he will be the first to admit that he doesn't mind if everyone disagrees with some of his analysis. He has always gone out on a limb on certain player projections and he's hit some home runs and struck out at times. But when it comes to projections, who hasn't had similar success?

Ron dives into baseball analysis more than anyone else in the industry as this is a year-round love affair for him and he is analyzying the performance stats year-round. He's not as dumb as someone like me who tackles baseball and football; he concentrates on just baseball. He probably attends as many or more baseball games per year than most NFBC members. He's a baseball fan first -- unfortunately a Mets' fan

-- and a statistical analyzer second.

This year I take my hat off to Ron in many ways for what I think is his best Forecaster yet. There's so much more in it this than I can remember, including an NFBC 30-round projection that I don't remember seeing before. It's a 15-team, 30-round projection just for our group. It's awesome. He could have easily done a 12-team, 23-round projection, but he went the extra yard because he knows there are die-hards like you folks who want all 450 players. I loved it.

Ron and I don't care if you disagree with some of the content, but let's keep the personal stuff out of it. I'm sure 99 percent of the folks on these boards have never met Ron or any of his writers at BaseballHQ.com, but trust me they are as dedicated to fantasy baseball as any of us. They love the statistical analysis and we benefit from it.

Now, how am I going to ask Ron if we can have some Forecasters for promotional use?? He's been great with us in past years and a lot of you guys have gotten complimentary copies. I'd order one now if you want to get your off-season started off right. It really is the official start of the next baseball season.

Thanks for all you've done Ron and keep up the good work. Happy holidays all.

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 11:25 am

I think based on your last post is where the problem lies Gordon. I never once said that Shandler had nothing of value to say. I never said I would not read anything he wrote. I said I felt he was overrated. Maybe I should have rephrased it and just said I don't find everything he writes to be of value to me personally. Just like you think he overvalues SB's. Would that have made you feel less threatened by my statement? I apologize to Ron for having demeaned him so much with my statement, oh wait it is Beavers and Gekko that seem to have taken offense and not the man who I so unfairly called out and slung mud at. Geez, shame on me! LOL

So, if it makes all feel better I will retract the "overrated" and simply state I take alot of what is written with a grain of salt and I use more then just Shandler as a guide in my prep for the upcoming season. Is that cool with you guys? Sorry Greg if I said something wrong about baseballhq and Ron holds it against you that I had an opinion, but I somehow think he probably could care less what I think.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 11:29 am

He won't be in the minority HH

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 11:34 am

Thanks Captain