2008 Baseball Forecaster

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 3:06 pm

No problem having an opinion HH; I think HQ's work is as good as anyone's, but I agree with you that some people still give it too much weight.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 3:06 pm

i think everyone's temperature has been checked. let's move on.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 4:07 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

No problem having an opinion HH; I think HQ's work is as good as anyone's, but I agree with you that some people still give it too much weight. ANYONE WHO BLINDLY FOLLOWS ANY SINGLE SOURCE IS SETUP TO FAIL. are you telling us there are 'people' like that?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Dec 15, 2007 5:25 pm

Originally posted by cleaver beavers:

i think everyone's temperature has been checked. let's move on. What else we gonna talk about, Roger Clemens employing the OJ Defense?

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 2:03 am

1 last post then I would be MORE than happy to move on. If anyone here has slung mud at Mr. Shandler, it has been me. Certainly not HH. If I have offended Mr. Shandler, or anyone else, I apologise for any offense I may have said either recently or last year when I was responcible for bringing his name up as "over rated". It actually didn't start with Mr. Shandler it was about the baseball services in general and I brought Mr. Shandler into it because he seemed to have risen to almost cult status with such a large and loyal following. So let me apologise again, and I don't mean for it to be a back handed apology at all, but it is because of his success that I originally dragged him into this. I have a sports management degree because I wanted to be in baseball as a profession which I never accomplished. Mr Shandler has accomplished this and I don't begrudge him 1 little bit and think he deserves much credit for being able to make this work, not only for himself, but obviously many find his read an absolute must. Sometimes postings come out sounding other ways than they are meant to come out. I want to make it absolutly clear, I did not and do not mean to bash Mr Shandler personally and sincerly apologise again.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 5:09 am

This is a message board. Opinions are brought here and then those opinions are batted around like a Paul Byrd fastball down the middle of the plate. The worst thing we can do is get personal, which is hard to do since hardly any of us have met outside of our monitors. I don't think anybody has gotten personal in this thread. As far as I know there hasn't been any 'Can I get my socks back, they're under your Mom's bed' comments. If somebody thinks that Ron Shandler is overrated, it's all good, to have the foresight to back up that statement is better, but its all good. A writer, especially one who tries to look into the future won't please everyone and will probably scrutinize contrary comments more than complimentary ones to try and better himself.

I'm sure he has heard the criticisms before and will again. Since we are on the ballfield of opinions, apologies shouldn't be necessary. He'll deal with criticisms much like you, Vander, after taking two closers on the 4-5 turn last year. If anyone has questions or comments for Ron Shandler, last year he was nice enough to do a Q and A with us and I'm betting that Greg will ask him to do the same this year.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 2:30 am

1 last post from me on the subject. i never said i was offended. i just ask for an explanation or "educate me" on how his work was overrated. i value someones opinion on the tons of data and projections we have at our fingertips. personally i value the forecaster, but it's not my sole resource for draft preparation. sorry for the confusion HH.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 4:48 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

If anyone has questions or comments for Ron Shandler, last year he was nice enough to do a Q and A with us and I'm betting that Greg will ask him to do the same this year. Yes indeed. We'll do our best to have live chats with industry sources every week starting in January or February and I know Ron will be gracious enough to join us again. Those are a lot of fun and we'll get those going soon. Right now, Tom and I are buried on our first baseball magazine deadline.

By the way, I think I'm overrated!!!

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Dec 26, 2007 11:57 am

I got my forecaster today in the mail and boy am i happy.It's just a must read even if you dont agree with everything.I even got an extra one for a friend of mine .[christmas gift]

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Wed Dec 26, 2007 1:16 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I got my forecaster today in the mail and boy am i happy.It's just a must read even if you dont agree with everything.I even got an extra one for a friend of mine .[christmas gift] Agreed. I got one yesterday from my wife for Christmas. She asked me for weeks what to get me. I had no ideas, then thought of this. I'm a Baseball Forecaster rookie, so I'm off to read it right now.

dpat · Post by **dpat** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:25 am

Ron, I'm curious why so low on Vmart in the 15 team snake draft? You have him going in the 8th round, I believe and Martin going much earlier.

Also, I've been a Forecaster owner for the past six years. IMO, best book on the market. For what it's worth, your metrics make perfect sense to me and I use them every year to capture or finish in the top three of my AL only league.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 1:27 am

I'm not sure the forecaster's 15-team 30-round snake draft is meant for the nfbc, but if it is, it does a pretty poor job of forecasting the proper rounds for players.

I thought I saw Verlander and pierre in the 2nd!!! Ouch! I'd take them in the 2nd only if I wanted to have a good chance at being a donation this year.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 3:36 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I'm not sure the forecaster's 15-team 30-round snake draft is meant for the nfbc, but if it is, it does a pretty poor job of forecasting the proper rounds for players.

I thought I saw Verlander and pierre in the 2nd!!! Ouch! I'd take them in the 2nd only if I wanted to have a good chance at being a donation this year. I could be wrong, but I think the 15-Team Snake Draft in the Forecaster is not a prediction of ADP for 2008. Rather, it is where Baseball HQ feels a players value lies, so you can judge for yourself where you might find upside value and who might end up being overvalued.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 3:46 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I could be wrong, but I think the 15-Team Snake Draft in the Forecaster is not a prediction of ADP for 2008. Rather, it is where Baseball HQ feels a players value lies, so you can judge for yourself where you might find upside value and who might end up being overvalued. Got ya. so verlander should be the steal of the nfbc come march? HQ gives him 2nd round value and the earliest I see him going is the 5th round. Seems like great value to me.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 3:56 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I could be wrong, but I think the 15-Team Snake Draft in the Forecaster is not a prediction of ADP for 2008. Rather, it is where Baseball HQ feels a players value lies, so you can judge for yourself where you might find upside value and who might end up being overvalued. Got ya. so verlander should be the steal of the nfbc come march? HQ gives him 2nd round value and the earliest I see him going is the 5th round. Seems like great value to me. [/QUOTE]I would like him on my team, but the question is would I pick him to be my ace in the "Ace" rounds (fourth and fifth). Probably.

He fits the profile. Good offensive team around him, upgraded at shortstop for defense (downgraded at third a bit, though, defensively), and Verlander is going into his majical third year of MLB experience, has 60+ starts under his belt, live arm, may yet figure out lefthanders better...you could do worse!

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Thu Jan 03, 2008 10:56 am

My absolute favorite person in all of baseball is Bobby Wine.You should see the way Bobby lights up just at the mention of Verlander.This kid is going to be special.