Gekko - Fireside Chat_-_2B

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 11:29 am

I can't believe it's already the first week of January. Next week they are calling for 50 and 60 degree weather where I live in PA. AMAZING!! Before you know it Spring Training will be starting and draft day will be right around the corner.

Today's post contains a STUD, SLEEPER, and DISAPPOINTMENT 2B for 2008. In doing these types of posts, it's gotten me to look at other owners rankings a lot more than I've ever done before. It's kinda interesting to see someone I value highly not even making someone else's top 10 or top 15 list.

STUD - Phillips,Brandon

I have Brandon in a virtual tie with Utley. Brandon's a few years younger than Chase and he runs more. Since I owned him last year, I know he was pressing late in the season to make the 30/30 club. Now that he has, it's time for the pressure-less Phillips to take it to a new level. Playing in that great hr ballpark will keep his hr's ramped up. 35-38 is not out of the question. Strong Buy, even mid/late first round.

Gekko's Rank = Tie for 1st with Utley

Childs Rank = 2nd

Forecaster Rank = 2nd

Greg Ambrosius Rank = Tie for 1st with Utley

SLEEPER - Johnson,Kelly

If folks remember, Johnson missed all of the 2006 season. That makes his breakthrough 2007 performance even more impressive! The 25 year old Johnson has the power to hit 20 hr and speed to steal double digit bases.

Gekko's Rank = 11

Childs Rank = Not in his top 15

Forecaster Rank = 15

Greg Ambrosius Rank = 12

DISAPPOINTMENT - Uggla,Dan

Be careful here...Uggla's stats the last two years have been put up with MAXIMUM AB. Miggy is gone this year. HRAM may not be healthy. I see his runs, hr, and rbi all dropping significantly this year. It's hard for his sb (2) or avg (.245) to drop, but you never know. Even if he gets over 600 AB again, a .245 avg will kill your team's overall average. stay away

Gekko's Rank = 17

Childs Rank = 9

Forecaster Rank = 12

Greg Ambrosius Rank = 9

Thoughts?

[ January 05, 2008, 05:34 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:03 pm

btw, honorable mention for sleeper is Hill,Aaron

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:06 pm

think you are pretty dead on with these guys, not sure Johnson is going to surprise anyone this year, he posted decent numbers last year and just ran out of steam the last month and they started to platoon him, I think you are closer on Uggla than the rest, BA and SB are killers, runs will be way down but homers and rbi won't drop that significantly, he had no rbi for the homers he had last year, 31 hr and 88 rbi, look for .250-25-80-2. But he also has the potential for the biggest drop off based on last year numbers and players now surrounding him. I think the top 6 or 7 go early and then 3 or 4 round break before any other are taken.

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:06 pm

you had to mention him

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:14 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

btw, honorable mention for sleeper is Hill,Aaron

Not exactly a sleeper - look how high Shandler has him

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:52 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

btw, honorable mention for sleeper is Hill,Aaron

Not exactly a sleeper - look how high Shandler has him

[/QUOTE]No one has him higher than shandler.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 2:31 pm

Not sure Hill or Johnson are sleepers. They were sleepers last year. I'm surprised anyone would have Uggla that high. Shandler didn't even like him last year.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 2:57 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Not sure Hill or Johnson are sleepers. They were sleepers last year. I'm surprised anyone would have Uggla that high. Shandler didn't even like him last year. Where do u have johnson ranked on your 2B list.

Btw, I'm not giving away any top sleepers. You need to find your own.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 3:18 pm

I agree with Bobby J , Gordon is right on with these guy's.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 4:00 pm

STUD - Phillips,Brandon

Gekko's Rank = Tie for 1st with Utley

Childs Rank = 2nd

Forecaster Rank = 2nd

Greg Ambrosius Rank = Tie for 1st with Utley

Duke's Rank = 3rd, he won't drive in enough to stay with Utley's value

SLEEPER - Johnson,Kelly

Gekko's Rank = 11

Childs Rank = Not in his top 15

Forecaster Rank = 15

Greg Ambrosius Rank = 12

Duke's rank = 10, don't think he's a sleeper though I agree with your ranking. Aaron Hill, your honorable mention, will be overrated this season.

DISAPPOINTMENT - Uggla,Dan

Gekko's Rank = 17

Childs Rank = 9

Forecaster Rank = 12

Greg Ambrosius Rank = 9

Duke's rank = 13, not enough quality 2b's to drop him down to your rank Gekko, but I do think he'll disappoint whoever drafts him.

[ January 05, 2008, 10:01 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 5:31 pm

The guy I see being overdrafted thus far is Cano. I've seen him go 3rd round. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong, wouldn't be the first time, but while the average is nice, the positional scarcity is not enough to pass on some guys offering serious speed or pop (or both) at that point. If you want BA, wait and get Polanco or Pedroia at the position.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 05, 2008 7:25 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Not sure Hill or Johnson are sleepers. They were sleepers last year. I'm surprised anyone would have Uggla that high. Shandler didn't even like him last year. Where do u have johnson ranked on your 2B list.

Btw, I'm not giving away any top sleepers. You need to find your own. [/QUOTE]Johnson was in my top 10 2B last year and I had him in both Krause leagues I was in. I'd say I considered him my biggest sleeper pre-season. I can only wish I was as far along in my 2008 rankings as you are to tell you where I have him now. Hill I didn't have on my teams, but I liked him. I was sitting on him as I needed a backup 2B to start the season (see Johnson, Kelly OF ATL), but he went ahead of me. Mark Ellis was next on my list and I didn't get him either before settling on Jamey Carroll in the 28th (ick). I ended up liking a few of the lower 2B last year so I didn't have to reach for a top one.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 12:23 am

Originally posted by Bobby J:

not sure Johnson is going to surprise anyone this year i have johnson rated the best out of the other 3 sources i named. that would qualify him as a sleeper (for me)

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 12:24 am

Originally posted by Bobby J:

you had to mention him who hill?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 12:24 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I agree with Bobby J , Gordon is right on with these guy's. thx eddie

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 12:28 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

STUD - Phillips,Brandon

Gekko's Rank = Tie for 1st with Utley

Childs Rank = 2nd

Forecaster Rank = 2nd

Greg Ambrosius Rank = Tie for 1st with Utley

Duke's Rank = 3rd, he won't drive in enough to stay with Utley's value

where in the lineup do YOU see phillips hitting?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 12:34 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

DISAPPOINTMENT - Uggla,Dan

Gekko's Rank = 17

Childs Rank = 9

Forecaster Rank = 12

Greg Ambrosius Rank = 9

Duke's rank = 13, not enough quality 2b's to drop him down to your rank Gekko, but I do think he'll disappoint whoever drafts him. duke - one of two things happens...

(1) his r, hr, rbi all diminish this year AND he gets the same # of AB consistent with the last two years AND his sub .250 batting average torpedos your team's batting average

OR

(2) his r, hr, rbi all diminish significantly this year because he gets 10% less AB's AND his sub .250 batting average torpedos your team's batting average (but doesn't deal a total death blow)

two options. choose which one u want, but don't say i didn't warn you

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 12:35 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

The guy I see being overdrafted thus far is Cano. I've seen him go 3rd round. NO WAY IS HE THIRD ROUND MATERIAL! i can see mid-late 4th.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 3:58 am

I do like Cano and think his power is coming, when i say power i mean anything over 20.His 93 runs and 97 rbi's was a big improvment.I think his 2nd half numbers of 16 homers ,65 rbi's and a 339 bavg has gotten some people excited.Ialso think late 4th round or early 5th round would be a nice value pick here was some upside.I always like guys who hit 300 and he has done this every year. If they ever moved him up in the line up that could get him 50 more at bats a year.[probably wont happen].

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 5:25 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

STUD - Phillips,Brandon

Gekko's Rank = Tie for 1st with Utley

Childs Rank = 2nd

Forecaster Rank = 2nd

Greg Ambrosius Rank = Tie for 1st with Utley

Duke's Rank = 3rd, he won't drive in enough to stay with Utley's value

where in the lineup do YOU see phillips hitting? [/QUOTE]I have him 2nd right now

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 5:31 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

DISAPPOINTMENT - Uggla,Dan

Gekko's Rank = 17

Childs Rank = 9

Forecaster Rank = 12

Greg Ambrosius Rank = 9

Duke's rank = 13, not enough quality 2b's to drop him down to your rank Gekko, but I do think he'll disappoint whoever drafts him. duke - one of two things happens...

(1) his r, hr, rbi all diminish this year AND he gets the same # of AB consistent with the last two years AND his sub .250 batting average torpedos your team's batting average

OR

(2) his r, hr, rbi all diminish significantly this year because he gets 10% less AB's AND his sub .250 batting average torpedos your team's batting average (but doesn't deal a total death blow)

two options. choose which one u want, but don't say i didn't warn you

[/QUOTE]He won't be on my teams because I have him rated lower than most, just not you - he should hit 260. There about 5 guys within $2 just below him in value, so I guess you have all of those ahead of him too. Sounds personal.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 6:40 am

When you guys do projections, do you project from where the player starts the season in the lineup or where he'll eventually end up in the lineup? For instance Pence moving from 6th in the lineup to his probable 2nd spot. By the same token, how much would Hanley or Sizemore's draft position change if either were switched to third in their respective lineups. Does it matter where Crawford hits in the lineup? Just a few questions from someone that doesen't project player stats.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 6:53 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

When you guys do projections, do you project from where the player starts the season in the lineup or where he'll eventually end up in the lineup? First, I don't project ALL players.

For the ones I do, I try and project both, but I put more emphasis on what's given at the time of the draft.

as for relying on projections, I rely on them to put players into different tiers. On draft day, I'll look at all the players in a specific tier to help determine my pick.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 6:53 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

When you guys do projections, do you project from where the player starts the season in the lineup or where he'll eventually end up in the lineup? For instance Pence moving from 6th in the lineup to his probable 2nd spot. By the same token, how much would Hanley or Sizemore's draft position change if either were switched to third in their respective lineups. Does it matter where Crawford hits in the lineup? Just a few questions from someone that doesen't project player stats. I project based on where I think they'll play most games. If there is a huge discrepancy in value, like for a guy who could hit either 1st or 9th, I'll average it out.

I'd be surprised if anyone else has a Sheep-like projection.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Jan 06, 2008 7:04 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

He won't be on my teams because I have him rated lower than most, just not you - he should hit 260. There about 5 guys within $2 just below him in value, so I guess you have all of those ahead of him too. Sounds personal. Nothing personal, I've never had him in any leagues.

When it comes down to it, players who have that sub .250 average and lots of at bats just crush you. It's hard to come back from that. Players whose BA's are terrible (uggla, c.young, r.weeks, etc...) are ALWAYS overvalued IMO.

If anyone listened to me LAST spring training I said ryan howard's batting average was ready to plummet (which it did). I don't want to give too much away, so I'll stop there.