Gekko - Fireside Chat_-_FirstBase

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:38 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I know what you are saying Q. If we all had 48 hours in a day, we could dig deep for every player. Until then, we have to pick and choose where we invest our limited time.

Jumping back to hanley, what have you identified as the "thing" you overlooked with him? ""Jeff Erickson

Member

Member # 531

Rate Member posted February 21, 2007 11:53 AM

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quote:

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Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

With all the hype around Jose Reyes...my eyes bugged out when I saw the 2nd half seasons of Hanley Ramirez when set side by side with Reyes...

Hanley Ramirez...

.312 14HR 29SB 63R 39RBI

Jose Reyes...

.307 11HR 30SB 55R 45RBI

Seems to me Hanley has more value in a later round than Jose in the upper part of the first round.

Your thoughts?

~Lance

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Yeah, if those numbers held up, sure; that said, I think the league will adjust to Ramirez a little and he'll need to make the requisite readjustments. If you get Hanley in the third, then yes, you'll probably get that sort of value. A lot of it depends on where your draft slot is in the first round, when weighing Reyes vs. Ramirez.""

This was from FEB 2007. If a player can do it for a half season at the major league level...he's done more than most players.

Loney had a strong 2nd half IN THE MAJORS. Sure...there are many flukes that also do that...but there are many that never do that.

The 9 HR and .709 slugging in 110 September AB is crazy good (and makes hie year look a lot better than it was without SEPT)...his 185 JUL and AUG AB were pretty ugly...but he has the size and youth to grow and produce if he slides to where you are comfortable.

Some gamble and lose, some gamble and win, and others play to not gamble until the very end of the draft.

~Lance

[ January 11, 2008, 12:39 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:52 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I know what you are saying Q. If we all had 48 hours in a day, we could dig deep for every player. Until then, we have to pick and choose where we invest our limited time.

Jumping back to hanley, what have you identified as the "thing" you overlooked with him? ""Jeff Erickson

Member

Member # 531

Rate Member posted February 21, 2007 11:53 AM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

With all the hype around Jose Reyes...my eyes bugged out when I saw the 2nd half seasons of Hanley Ramirez when set side by side with Reyes...

Hanley Ramirez...

.312 14HR 29SB 63R 39RBI

Jose Reyes...

.307 11HR 30SB 55R 45RBI

Seems to me Hanley has more value in a later round than Jose in the upper part of the first round.

Your thoughts?

~Lance

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Yeah, if those numbers held up, sure; that said, I think the league will adjust to Ramirez a little and he'll need to make the requisite readjustments. If you get Hanley in the third, then yes, you'll probably get that sort of value. A lot of it depends on where your draft slot is in the first round, when weighing Reyes vs. Ramirez.""

This was from FEB 2007. If a player can do it for a half season at the major league level...he's done more than most players.

Loney had a strong 2nd half IN THE MAJORS. Sure...there are many flukes that also do that...but there are many that never do that.

The 9 HR and .709 slugging in 110 September AB is crazy good (and makes hie year look a lot better than it was without SEPT)...his 185 JUL and AUG AB were pretty ugly...but he has the size and youth to grow and produce if he slides to where you are comfortable.

Some gamble and lose, some gamble and win, and others play to not gamble until the very end of the draft.

~Lance [/QUOTE]Good points Lance- on a somewhat related issue it looks like assuming he is the same person that Jeff Erickson from is joining the nfbc this year. I made the mistake of purchasing their draft kit- it is freaking terrible. . Do not waste your money fellas.

[ January 11, 2008, 12:55 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:57 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I know what you are saying Q. If we all had 48 hours in a day, we could dig deep for every player. Until then, we have to pick and choose where we invest our limited time.

Jumping back to hanley, what have you identified as the "thing" you overlooked with him? There was no one eureka item in looking back at his numbers that's for sure. I never did see him play in the minors. He was a top prospect though. Being one of the youngest at a certain level can keep a lid on eye popping #'s. Soriano in AAA in '00 had a 450ab 12hr 14sb season. Who could've seen a future 40-40 out of that ?? Can Loney jack 30 ? Forget the minors. He has the ability. So why not ?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 7:19 am

Two battling Loney theories. The rational (odds on) expectation I see is 23 HR in a full season, right about in the middle.

But if 1 in 15 believes the Q view, it won't matter what the other 14 believe 'cause he'll be long gone in your draft before you have to worry about him. Unless you're in an auction.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 9:11 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Two battling Loney theories. The rational (odds on) expectation I see is 23 HR in a full season, right about in the middle.

But if 1 in 15 believes the Q view, it won't matter what the other 14 believe 'cause he'll be long gone in your draft before you have to worry about him. Unless you're in an auction.

That's right! Scarfed up like a Loney Island dog on a hot summer night !

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:44 am

Lot's of different views on Loney , i kind of agree with Hook i would rather have Loney over Delgado but if needed a 30 hr 90 rbi and a 265 bavg then Delgado.[with a chance of 40] But i like to keep an eye on bavg and Loney had a great 2nd half againest major league pitching.

I would expect some improvment and a very good bavg[300 or more] I also agree with Q about some of the young stud players not hitting a lot of homers in the minors but start to hit them in the majors.This topic makes me think of Alexis Rios , remember his 1st season he hit 4 homers in 611 at bats between the minors and majors, but they said the power would come.I for one thought he could get more power being so tall then in 2006 he hit 17 and i for one was real happy having him in keeper leagues.Then last year he jack's 24 homer's , and maybe more this year.Im pretty sure Rios was a 1st round pick just like Hanley

What does Shawn Childs think of Loney .

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:50 am

One of the leading indicators of future power is doubles rate in conjunction with GB/FB ratio.

I know this is the 1B thread but since he was brought up, Hanley Ramirez is interesting as he lowered his GB/FB ratio from 1.26 to 1.05 in 2007. Interestingly, in just about the same number of AB, he hit basically the same number of doubles (high 40s), but jumped from 17 to 29 HR, albeit with 5 less triples. So with Ramirez, the question is what will his GB/FB rate be this season? Will it remain close to 1, meaning 30 HR is a possibility, or will it tend back to 1.2, putting the number in the 20s?

When Loney first came up in 2006, his GB/FB was 1.5 -- hard to hit grounders out of the park. Last season it was 1.25, yet he still hit what would prorate to close to 30 HR in a full season. He hits about as many doubles as HR, which is not a good thing for those that like to suggest "his 2B will turn into HR next season. Point is, when he hits a fly ball, he hits it well -- or his HR are more the line drive variety, which brings into question the whole subjective nature of the data. With Loney, there is more risk involved with assuming his power is upper 20s over a full season. I think he will eventually break free of the John Olerud, Mark Grace, Conor Jackson, Sean Casey mold, just not this season.

Another first baseman, Kevin Youkilis, is more advanced in his development, has similar discipline and contact skills and is a better candidate for a power surge in 2008.

[ January 11, 2008, 05:54 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 12:58 pm

Great stuff Todd you bring up some interesting data.Actually Youkills [speaking of] who is a 1st baseman so back on the subject, if can stay healthy a 20 , 90, 90 , and 300 bavg is more than possible.Youk had a horrible 2nd half but his wrist had a lot to do with it.Youk went in the 14th round in the Childs draft.[good value]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 1:07 pm

Eddie - more hr's this year...

Loney

Pudge

Or

The best hitting pitcher in the NL

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 4:06 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Eddie - more hr's this year...

Loney

Pudge

Or

The best hitting pitcher in the NL My money's on Ankiel

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:09 pm

Todd - it's not that I want to ignore your posts, but u make too much sense in your posts that if I reply to them telling you "good post" or "good job" it could bring extra eyeballs to your posts...which would be bad for me and other top gamers if u know what I mean.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:15 pm

shhhhhhhhhhh GG, let's change the subject

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:27 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Todd - it's not that I want to ignore your posts, but u make too much sense in your posts that if I reply to them telling you "good post" or "good job" it could bring extra eyeballs to your posts...which would be bad for me and other top gamers if u know what I mean. To me the Todd Zilla of fantasy baseball

Eagerly awaiting his weekly byline.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:33 pm

I'll give you my sleeper for '08 right now. T-Zola; I thought he had the best draft of the night earlier this week against an all-star group of drafters.

[ January 11, 2008, 11:36 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:44 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

The best hitting pitcher in the NL Micah Owings

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:11 am

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:36 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I know Gek isnt high on Loney but i am.Just took him in the 11th round in the Childs draft, took him over Delgado.What do some of you other guys think of him, [ crazy chest king hook lessdave ] Big question is, is he for real?

The problem I have with Loney is that his September numbers totally skew his overall numbers to the point where you don't know what you're getting.

Positive -

1. Full time job in 2008.

2. Showed that he has potential to go off in a month.

3. um, not much else.

Negatives:

1. Never showed any power in the minors. In fact, in 2,003 minor league at-bats he had a whopping 36 homers. Makes it tough to predict 25 in 500+ at-bats.

2. In his last 570 at-bats (not including September's stats) Includes 346 at-bats between 2006-2007 + minor league numbers in 2007.

His line - .295-11-85-71 runs - One thing that stands out a lot with Loney is he doesn't score very many runs. All through minor league/major he hasn't shown a whole of patience at the plate either. He is still young, so it's possible he could mature as a hitter, but I see his September as an aberration.

Of course, you have to decide whether his September stats signal a breakout or his previous 2,500 at-bats are more reflective of his true nature. I am leaning heavily on the latter and picking him to be a MAJOR bust in 2008.

As far as taking him over Delgado, I think that's questionable. I've always given veterans you can count on over the young guys (depends what round we're talking about though) I think Delgado is more than likely on a downslope but he still can be counted on for very good homer/rbi number with the upside of 35 homers - 110 rbi's.

Of course if Loney goes out and hits .300-25-90 then please erase my post, but I think it's more than likely his homer numbers will be tame. My guess for 2008 would be .285-17-85 with 65 runs. Could be Joey Votto territory.

Just my thoughts.

P.S. I'm a Dodgers fan so I hope I'm wrong about him.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:50 am

His line - .295-11-85-71 runs - One thing that stands out a lot with Loney is he doesn't score very many runs. I disagree with the runs statement.

1. Speed and baserunning instincts aside, runs is a team dependent stat

2. Far too small a sample to make anything but an anecdotal contention

3. To demonstrate sample size effects, the previous season he scored 20 runs in 110 MLB PA. Prorate that to a full season and you have over 100 runs.

Whether or not he is a bust depends upon your expectations. We've got him about .300 with 20 or so HR. Not bad for a CI or UT, but not what I want from my 1B, unless my 2B/SS and OF is stacked.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:09 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: His line - .295-11-85-71 runs - One thing that stands out a lot with Loney is he doesn't score very many runs. I disagree with the runs statement.

1. Speed and baserunning instincts aside, runs is a team dependent stat

2. Far too small a sample to make anything but an anecdotal contention

3. To demonstrate sample size effects, the previous season he scored 20 runs in 110 MLB PA. Prorate that to a full season and you have over 100 runs.

Whether or not he is a bust depends upon your expectations. We've got him about .300 with 20 or so HR. Not bad for a CI or UT, but not what I want from my 1B, unless my 2B/SS and OF is stacked. [/QUOTE]As far as saying his runs are a "team dependent stat", I think there are more things involved. First off, you have to get on base. And he clearly has little patience at the plate judging by his 36 walks in 460 major league at-bats.

I think players who score a lot runs do it regardless of who they play for, with not too much discrepancy with regards to lineup strength.

And players who consistently, year in and year out score few runs, do so because of a number of factors. Could be low on-base percentage, lack of speed, instincts, and few rbi guys behind them in the lineup.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:40 am

As far as saying his runs are a "team dependent stat", I think there are more things involved. First off, you have to get on base. And he clearly has little patience at the plate judging by his 36 walks in 460 major league at-bats. Except he does have an OBP of .372 in that small sample, which is very good. His ability to sustain that OBP is admittedly in question, which will obviously affect his opportunties, but that is a different argument. I am arguing that there is not something inherent to Loney that prevents him from scoring runs, once he gets on base. The low career total to date is a sample size anomoly.

Back to his discipline -- he walked 204 times in the minors with 1970 AB -- that's pretty close to a 10% walk rate which is quite acceptable. Of course, there is no assurity this skill is translated to the major leagues, but parts of two seasons is not enough time to do anything more than opine. But if you are suggesting to use the larger minor league sample to look at his power, you need to be consistent and at least consider the same larger sample with respect to his patience.

I think players who score a lot runs do it regardless of who they play for, with not too much discrepancy with regards to lineup strength. With due respect, think again.

[ January 12, 2008, 02:42 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:15 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: As far as saying his runs are a "team dependent stat", I think there are more things involved. First off, you have to get on base. And he clearly has little patience at the plate judging by his 36 walks in 460 major league at-bats. Except he does have an OBP of .372 in that small sample, which is very good. His ability to sustain that OBP is admittedly in question, which will obviously affect his opportunties, but that is a different argument. I am arguing that there is not something inherent to Loney that prevents him from scoring runs, once he gets on base. The low career total to date is a sample size anomoly.

Back to his discipline -- he walked 204 times in the minors with 1970 AB -- that's pretty close to a 10% walk rate which is quite acceptable. Of course, there is no assurity this skill is translated to the major leagues, but parts of two seasons is not enough time to do anything more than opine. But if you are suggesting to use the larger minor league sample to look at his power, you need to be consistent and at least consider the same larger sample with respect to his patience.

I think players who score a lot runs do it regardless of who they play for, with not too much discrepancy with regards to lineup strength. With due respect, think again. [/QUOTE]My point is that you're not going to see a 40% swing depending on lineup strength. If you see a player who average 70 runs per 162 games a year for 5 years, how much percentage increase will he have if he moves to a better offensive team. Minimal if you ask me.

You say .372 on-base percentage is very good, but that's only 50 points above his batting average. So say he hits .280 next year, you're probabaly looking at a .330-.340 on-base percentage. I hate to make this obvious point but he clearly doesn't walk very much, how do you think he'll be on-base very much to score many runs?

Maybe we disagree on a couple things, I truly respect all of your comments. I guess we can agree to disagree.

I've got him as a bust next year. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:31 am

My point is that you're not going to see a 40% swing depending on lineup strength. If you see a player who average 70 runs per 162 games a year for 5 years, how much percentage increase will he have if he moves to a better offensive team. Minimal if you ask me. But he hasn't played 5 years. He has played parts of two seasons, which in total, equal one full season.

SAMPLE SIZE.

His experience in the bigs is not sufficient enough to paint him with the general "Loney doesn't score many runs" brush. Yet. Heck, you MAY be right. My point is there is no statistical evidence to back the claim.

You say .372 on-base percentage is very good, but that's only 50 points above his batting average. So say he hits .280 next year, you're probabaly looking at a .330-.340 on-base percentage. I hate to make this obvious point but he clearly doesn't walk very much, how do you think he'll be on-base very much to score many runs? The point is so obvious I anticipated your bringing it up and already addressed it -- from two different angles.

1. The jury is still out with respect to his discipline as he showed in the minors he could walk once per 10 at bats or once per 11 plate appearances.

But more importantly...

2. You are juxtaposing two arguments. You argued his runs were down because he didn't walk, but I showed in that time, he DID INDEED get on base at a high enough rate -- albeit due to an inflated BABIP that he won't sustain. The reason he did not score many runs in that small sample was not because he was not on base, it was circumstansial that his teammates did not drive him him, more so in 2007 than 2006, as in 2006 as I showed, he scored at a high rate.

I guess what I am saying is I have an issue with this statement --

"Based on his career to date, I don't think Loney will score many runs, because even though he has been on base 37% of the time, there is something about him that will prevent him from scoring once he is on.

But I will accept, but not necessarily agree with---

"I think Loney's runs will suffer because he is an on-base risk and doesn't drive himself in with a ton of his own homers."

[ January 12, 2008, 03:33 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:43 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

If you see a player who average 70 runs per 162 games a year for 5 years, how much percentage increase will he have if he moves to a better offensive team. Minimal if you ask me.

crazy - stop talking out your ass

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 10:34 am

You guy's are having a nice little battle with the stats but Todd is like Ali,so crazy i would take on someone else.

Todd your projections on LONEY is what im looking for 20hr, 3oo bavg, and 90 rbi's and runs.Having Arod Hafner and Hawpe i was looking for a bavg 1st baseman here with some upside.

Bavg is someting i really keep an eye on and a lot of players dont.Most leagues when i win them , im usally in the top three in BAVG.

Its a catagory you can control , if you keep your eye on it.I still like Delgado this year[only 35]and he's been going late.[10th 11th round]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 11:57 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

You guy's are having a nice little battle with the stats but Todd is like Ali,so crazy i would take on someone else.

Todd your projections on LONEY is what im looking for 20hr, 3oo bavg, and 90 rbi's and runs.Having Arod Hafner and Hawpe i was looking for a bavg 1st baseman here with some upside.

Bavg is someting i really keep an eye on and a lot of players dont.Most leagues when i win them , im usally in the top three in BAVG.

Its a catagory you can control , if you keep your eye on it.I still like Delgado this year[only 35]and he's been going late.[10th 11th round] Eddie, funny you mention Delgado and controlling BA in the same post. His pathteic BA last season cost me (and Q) a big payday in the Ultimate.

[ January 12, 2008, 05:57 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]