Looking Back

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 7:59 am

Since we had some many threads projecting who was going to do what, I thought a look back might be of value.

Both of my leauges ($650 mixed draft and $1250 main event) didn't turn out as I would have hoped. I am 7-8th in the draft and 12-15th in the other.

I could chaulk it up to injury: I had nomar, rolen, sheets, and many other players all gone for extended time but here is a summary of what I think I did well and did poorly. I invite others to give their ups and downs.

Things I did right:

1. Drafted / bid on most players well. People like Sexson, etc... did exactly as I hoped.

2. Picked up many key players like Chris Young, John Patterson, Shawn Chacon, Johny Perhalta etc...

3. Didn't spend any picks or $ on Catchers and got almost as much production out of Mike Matheny and others as people did on Piazza, et all...

Things I did poorly:

1. Got too anxious about non-performers and zig-zaged with benching players, thereby often missing good performances

2. Worried too much about pitcher match ups. I can't tell you the # of times I sat Dontrelle because I didn't like the match up only to see a stellar performance on the bench

3. Started to panic, so chased some players off the waiver wire too hard: Paying $350 for Tino Martinez will surely rank as my worst move. (Paying $1 FAAB for Young and Chawcon, the best)

All in all, a very fun year, and I will definitely be back. I look forward to doing both league types again (though I fundementally believe that having a top 5 pick in the NFBC draft is a HUGE advantage). I would strongly suggest that 10 additional FAAB dollars be given to each player so 1st place would have $1000 FAAB and 15th place would have $1150.

Spy

[ September 28, 2005, 02:00 PM: Message edited by: Spyhunter ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:37 am

I like your idea on the FAAB

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:12 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

I like your idea on the FAAB Thanks! I think it is important to address the. The reality is that ultra elite players like A-Rod, and Pujolis + a 30th pick are almost always better than an 15th and a 16th. I feel that the players in the 15-45 positions tend to be much similar than the studs in the top 5-10 (of course, people do surprise i.e. Derrick Lee)...

Spy

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:55 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

I like your idea on the FAAB Thanks! I think it is important to address the. The reality is that ultra elite players like A-Rod, and Pujolis + a 30th pick are almost always better than an 15th and a 16th. I feel that the players in the 15-45 positions tend to be much similar than the studs in the top 5-10 (of course, people do surprise i.e. Derrick Lee)...

Spy [/QUOTE]Especially next year- I have 13 legit first rounders and then a lot of guys who are pretty equal IMO- someone could get just as good of 2 at 30/31 as the guy at 15/16.

I think you may be creating too much of a discrepancy in FA dollars- but you are on the right track.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Sep 29, 2005 5:40 am

I totally disagree. A few people have done the analysis, and I believe the result is very similar to last year.

Those drafting between 6-10 seemed to have been better off than most. People on both ends of the draft tend to reach for players because the don't have another pick for another 26-30 selections.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Sep 29, 2005 9:27 am

This year was my first year. I read a lot of posts before the draft orders were set that the #8 pick last year was the worst spot in the 2004 drafts for money. Of course I ended up with the #8 pick. This year #8 seems to be one of the best places to pick. I'm old school in that I don't believe it is where you pick but WHO you pick that matters.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Sep 29, 2005 9:59 am

Just my two cents...I totally respect Brian for picking Sheets in the first round this year. He had his convictions and stood by it, I'm sure if he had called Derrick Lee's name that he would have caught the same crap then, but not now. Salutations Brian, for zagging instead of zigging.

viper · Post by **viper** » Thu Sep 29, 2005 10:44 am

My take is that drafting near the middle is best.

Getting value for your pick is important. Every time you pick, there are often players available you consider bargains that others overlooked. Drafting in the middle rounds mean there are always those players available because multiple picks made between your picks. Drafting on the end, means your first selections has had a number of mistakes made before your pick but your subsequent selection comes too soon for those types of errors.

Additionally, as has been mentioned, drafting on the end means you typically have to reach for a player because you know he will be gone the next time you pick. This is especially true with closers and speed. Waiting on a player of this type means you lose.

Drafting in the middle means you can always draft for value. This hardly guarantees success. You still have a pick solid choices and balance your team. But it gives you a leg up.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Sep 29, 2005 3:56 pm

Fine, I will gladly take #1 or #2. The reality is that there are 2 ultra elite players and that is about it. Even vlad doesn't match Arod or Pujolis for consistency. While you MAY get lucky with a middle round or a late pick, having 1 of those 2 guys anchor your team is about a sure thing as you can get in fantasy baseball.

I will gladly take #1, #30 and #31, than #10, #25, and #45! Think about it!

While I don't disagree with the point about not having to worry about rushes as much, picking #1 or #2 is just awesome

Spy

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:35 am

You know it but I'll say it...

Greg can never, ever admit that an early draft pick is better than a late draft pick. At the heart of growing this business must be the assumption that all draft positions have an equal chance of winning and skill plus luck will decide the outcome.

The fact is, so much happens during the season that the early draft pick effect almost always goes away in an end of season analysis. Particularly in baseball with its endless season, 2 zillion players and impact players that you never heard of before, I think the "draft position doesn't matter" argument is probably correct.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 6:23 am

While there may be some truth to draft position mattering, the FAAB process is much more important. Just a few more bucks and we would have had Turnbow. What a difference that would have made!

It would be interesting to see the successful FAAB's of the top teams, and how much a difference it made.

Our biggest mistakes:

Drafting Helton over Tejada.

Waiving BMyers in the first week (for Ohka!).

Not taking Wickman when I had a chance because I crossed him off accidently and thought he was already taken.

Successes:

FAABing AKennedy in week 1.

Taking key players earlier than projected (Willis, Figgins, Mench, Feliz)

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 8:01 am

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:

You know it but I'll say it...

Greg can never, ever admit that an early draft pick is better than a late draft pick. At the heart of growing this business must be the assumption that all draft positions have an equal chance of winning and skill plus luck will decide the outcome.

The fact is, so much happens during the season that the early draft pick effect almost always goes away in an end of season analysis. Particularly in baseball with its endless season, 2 zillion players and impact players that you never heard of before, I think the "draft position doesn't matter" argument is probably correct. JP, as you know I'm in several leagues myself and obviously I ALWAYS want a high pick in every league I'm in, too. I'll admit that much. I think every fantasy owner believes they can find the sleepers later in the draft if they can build with a solid foundation early. That's why we all want high picks.

Draft position is probably more important in football than baseball, but it's still important in baseball. But as we've shown the last two years in both of our contests, you can win from any spot. You just need to select the right players.

In baseball, here's the average Draft Position for the following players this year in the NFBC:

Brian Fuentes - 608

Huston Street - 493

Chris Capuano - 481

Grady Sizemore - 456

Willy Taveras - 449

Jorge Cantu - 426

Jhonny Peralta - 381

Felipe Lopez - 339

Craig Biggio - 287

Chad Tracy - 263

Morgan Ensberg - 229

Dontrelle Willis - 209

Garrett Atkins - 188

Andy Pettitte - 187

Cliff Floyd - 175

Chase Utley - 174

Chris Carpenter - 157

Pat Burrell - 125

Brian Roberts - 119

Jason Bay - 91

Roger Clemens - 81

Richie Sexson - 80

Andruw Jones - 77

Paul Konerko - 72

David Wright - 58

Who was the best bargain of the year? Hard to tell, but there obviously were bargains to be had everywhere after the first three rounds.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 8:28 am

I ran a regression analysis last year on all teams, not just first place which is too small a sample size to rely on, and found that the middle draft slots had a clear advantage over the ends. Someone looked at just the leaders this year and came to a similar conclusion.

Whether the best slot is #5 or #8, or whatever, in any given year, is likely to change year-to-year. But after several NFBC drafts my experience tells me the same thing - if you have to wait 25 spots for a pick you are probably at a disadvantage in terms of managing the draft. Who you take is obviously critcal, but that doesn't discount the importance of who is available to take, and that of course depends on where you are sitting at the draft table.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 10:48 am

Fair enough, I won't aruge whether 1 or 2 is better than 6 or 7, but I think is absolutely clear that players in 13-15 are screwed... See my other thread post. There is a very simple way to make this completely even - the auction....

Greg, why can't we add this??? It will add 15 minutes to the draft and then NO can claim they got screwed by the pick of a random #

Spy

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:47 am

Just my two cents...I totally respect Brian for picking Sheets in the first round this year. He had his convictions and stood by it, I'm sure if he had called Derrick Lee's name that he would have caught the same crap then, but not now. Salutations Brian, for zagging instead of zigging. Thanks Dan. I expected to get crap and I did. I don't see as controversial of a first round pick in my near future, but I wouldn't hesitate to do it if I thought it was the best thing for my team. The guy in our league who really scared me was cheers who took all pitchers with the first five picks. Don't get me wrong, I didn't like his team very much, but I thought the fact that he was doing things so much differently than everyone else demonstrated enough originality that perhaps he knew something everyone else didn't. If you're just picking whoever everyone else would pick then why would you think you are any more likely to win than everyone else?

Corkedbats · Post by **Corkedbats** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 2:29 am

Throop....

My paypal address is: [email protected]

Thanks,

Oboys

PittIsIt95 · Post by **PittIsIt95** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:53 am

Please tell those that picked early and picked Carlos Beltran that early picks are so friggin great. People that think you have to have a top 5 pick in baseball are those owners that are generally weak owners.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 11:09 pm

Still think pick # equates with whom you pick Like the idea of bidding for spots to appease those who feel it matters. I had pick#13 in NY#5 and ended up with Soriano came back with Cabrera in 2nd 3rd round was Young 4th Pods Happy with that nucleus from the 13th spot Another factor which is an unknown variable is particular league your in and with 14 other opinions and personalities you can never tell what player might have value to someone else ex Closers and Starting pitchers

Marty Bedell MGBS109

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:23 am

Originally posted by PittIsIt95:

Please tell those that picked early and picked Carlos Beltran that early picks are so friggin great. People that think you have to have a top 5 pick in baseball are those owners that are generally weak owners.

Lol, well, first of all, if I had had a top five pick, I would never have taken beltran - why? not because I was psychic, but because he moved to the METS which have a horrible park for offense and a very average line up.

My point is that if you get an super elite pick, you get a huge advantage. why? because you get to pick a rock star player with little RISK of failure. Soriano was a great pick this year, but he hasn't show the CONSISTENCY to make him a top 3 pick. Really in baseball, I only see two players who are low risk of a superstar season: Pujolis and Arod. Vlad is the next pick but even he has had up/down due to injury. Obviously, people can find other players who may finish higher, but the chance of Arod/Pujolis finishing in the top 10 player ratings is extremely good.

The consistency risk of a 15th pick and a 30ths pick isn't very different. Hence my point that a #1 or #2 pick plus a #29 or #30 pick is more valuable than a #15 and #16.

Spy

Spy