Overstuffed Pigs_on_Draft_Day

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 3:41 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Can't WAIT for opening Z day!

In less than 2 weeks, Zambrano v Sheets at Wrigley. Should be about 38 degrees outside.

I see Z tossing a 2-hitter over 6, while its 50/50 Sheets' brittle arm ices up and falls off.

Considering the LV10 champs have both KJ I hope you are right on the Z-Man 2 hitter and Sheets arm stays warm and he throws a 3 hitter and the Cubs win 3-0 on 3 solo bombs by Soriano!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 3:46 pm

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Can't WAIT for opening Z day!

In less than 2 weeks, Zambrano v Sheets at Wrigley. Should be about 38 degrees outside.

I see Z tossing a 2-hitter over 6, while its 50/50 Sheets' brittle arm ices up and falls off.

Considering the LV10 champs have both KJ I hope you are right on the Z-Man 2 hitter and Sheets arm stays warm and he throws a 3 hitter and the Cubs win 3-0 on 3 solo bombs by Soriano! [/QUOTE]March Madness!!

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 3:46 pm

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Can't WAIT for opening Z day!

In less than 2 weeks, Zambrano v Sheets at Wrigley. Should be about 38 degrees outside.

I see Z tossing a 2-hitter over 6, while its 50/50 Sheets' brittle arm ices up and falls off.

Considering the LV10 champs have both KJ I hope you are right on the Z-Man 2 hitter and Sheets arm stays warm and he throws a 3 hitter and the Cubs win 3-0 on 3 solo bombs by Soriano! [/QUOTE]It wasn't just coincidence that I let Carlos fall to you guys

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 3:51 pm

I need to add a player:

Mike Napoli

Mathis has played more by a little so far and Mike S. has said they are splitting time until one is better...

So far, Mathis has better spring stats and both suck fantasy wise.

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Tue Mar 18, 2008 3:55 pm

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Can't WAIT for opening Z day!

In less than 2 weeks, Zambrano v Sheets at Wrigley. Should be about 38 degrees outside.

I see Z tossing a 2-hitter over 6, while its 50/50 Sheets' brittle arm ices up and falls off.

Considering the LV10 champs have both KJ I hope you are right on the Z-Man 2 hitter and Sheets arm stays warm and he throws a 3 hitter and the Cubs win 3-0 on 3 solo bombs by Soriano! [/QUOTE]It wasn't just coincidence that I let Carlos fall to you guys

[/QUOTE]Fell? We took him a round earlier then most knowing how good he is going to be! LOL

rockitsauce · Post by **rockitsauce** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:37 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Carlos Delgado - I watched the guy play last year, and he was downright brutal at the plate/ mechanics looked all messed up. [/QB]not that i want the guy, but when did you become a batting coach charlie lau?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:18 am

I went to a phillies game when I was a kid. That should be all the quals I need

rockitsauce · Post by **rockitsauce** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:40 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I went to a phillies game when I was a kid. That should be all the quals I need gg, just baggin' on ya cuz i jus can't see using a computer app to make my pks...i jus came back from the sox v rockies game...tulo went deep twice, so did thome...thome hit a 3 run shot in the bottom of the 8th to give sox a 1 run lead, we left after the rockies tied it at 10 in top of the 9th...had to get a jump on terrible tucson traffic (all the snowbirds from wisconsin & chicago, lol)

alexi ramirez homered & played cf...he reminds me of soriano, good stick, bad glove.

well that's my cactus lge update for the day, gonna see the rangers & dbacks tommorrow.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:48 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Howie Kendrick - 9 HRs and 11 SBs over 2 seasons and 625 plate apppearances. He hit over 300 in a half a season last yr thanks to an inflated hit ratio. Whoppee, he's the David DeJesus of the IF.Inflated hit ratio? A .300 AVG for Kendrick is money in the bank. He just needs to stay healthy and it'll all come together for him.

rockitsauce · Post by **rockitsauce** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:44 pm

tulo actually did not hit 2 hrs today, the 2nd shot hit the top of the wall and came back in, it fooled everyone, but what does not fool me is how good a player tt is!

i also agree w/ koq about hitman howie k. he looked real good in the game i saw him in, stole 2 bases, had a couple hits, if he stays healthy, sky is the limit!

Loops · Post by **Loops** » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:16 am

I'm going to throw out 2 more guys

1-Curtis Granderson. vs LHP last 2 years

06-.218

07-.160

ouch. Plus a BAbip # in the .350 range 2 years in a row (could regress) and he went from 8 sbs to 26. what if regresses back to 18? Just not a top 10 OF yet. Too many questions. 1 day soon but not yet. He still needs to consolidate some skills. Jim Leyland just will not let a guy lead off against LHP if he is that bad. If Granderson plays 15% of his games batting in the 7 spot it will impact his total counting stats negatively.

2- Victorino- I owned the guy last year (rd 18) and I love him, but round 4???? In 06 this guy went 6 of 10 on SB attempts. he comes out in 07 and steals 37. which is the real level? I'm not gambling on him returning to 40sb and without that he is no 4th/5th round value. Truly how many guys have a SBO% in the 30s? People could be in for a bit of a disappointment there. Even in his AAA MVP season he only stole in the mid teens (13 in 05).

The 37 sbs are seemingly at this point an outlier.

To me both of these guys are risky picks in the first 5 rounds. They both have clear upside both they both also have a clear path to disappointing owners as well.

Interesting thread here though.

What about Big Unit. any opinions?

Best,

Lopi

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:27 am

Very good points. Victorino certainly carries some risks. But I think the presence of Davey Lopes alleviates some of those. Doesn't hurt to have the top(or near) basestealer % wise as a coach.

As for Granderson, again, good points. I think he sits in a good enough lineup though that even if he doesn't reach 2007 numbers, they won't be far off.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:29 am

"The 20-20-20-20 club refers to the group of people who have, in addition to fulfilling the requirements of the 20-20-20 club, also collected 20-or-more stolen bases during their 20-20-20 season.[1] Currently, Frank Schulte (23), Willie Mays (38), Curtis Granderson (26), and Jimmy Rollins (41) are members."

20 HR

20 2B

20 3B

20 SB

I like the company Rollins (my first pick), and Granderson (my 2nd pick) are in!

Granderson was 26 for 27 in SB...why would he stop running if they don't catch him stealing? He's fairly young and light and in a monster lineup. He may not hit .300...but the runs, HR and SB should be there again. His game log shows a steady dose of .290 plus avg all season long...and it improved in the 2nd half. I like his chances to stay as good as 2007 or improve in his magical 3rd season in the big leagues.

~Lance

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:48 am

Originally posted by Lopi:

Victorino- I owned the guy last year (rd 18) and I love him, but round 4???? In 06 this guy went 6 of 10 on SB attempts. he comes out in 07 and steals 37. which is the real level? I'm not gambling on him returning to 40sb and without that he is no 4th/5th round value. Truly how many guys have a SBO% in the 30s? People could be in for a bit of a disappointment there. Even in his AAA MVP season he only stole in the mid teens (13 in 05).

The 37 sbs are seemingly at this point an outlier. I know some people were very high on Victorino, but he was on my avoid list. Simply put, Victorino doesn't have the body to play everyday. His dimunitive size (5'9" - listed at 160 lbs but more like 150) will lead to getting hurt yet again in 2008. Much more suited to be a 4th outfielder.

Loops · Post by **Loops** » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:58 am

Thats a good point about Lopes. I also felt last year that J Roll may have helped him in learning how to be more efficient on the basepaths. Clearly Lopes/J Roll have some spare wisdom when it comes to stealing bases. It is just hard to know what actually caused his jump in SBs. that 32% SBO rate freaks me out. If that turns into 24% SBO he will be stuck at 25SBs.

In terms of Granderson I love the kid in real life. What a fun athlete to watch. He loves to play the game and likes to do it the right way (some one send Matt Kemp some Granderson gametapes please). That said I am just concerned with his counting stats because if he loses say 40 abs due to Pudge getting to lead off against LHP it will slightly cut into his totals. I'm just slightly bearish on him. I'd like to see him bat 250 against LHP before I totally buy in. He is however an impact player as evidenced by his inclusion in the 20-20-20-20 list and he can earn you that 2nd round value with any sort of continued development, any uptick in skills or continued good fortunes.

Once again I like both these guys I just wouldn't feel comfortable drafting either of the in their ADP spots.

But what do I know I own Beltran this year. lolol

talk about possibly being overvalued.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Mar 21, 2008 8:58 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Lopi:

Victorino- I owned the guy last year (rd 18) and I love him, but round 4???? In 06 this guy went 6 of 10 on SB attempts. he comes out in 07 and steals 37. which is the real level? I'm not gambling on him returning to 40sb and without that he is no 4th/5th round value. Truly how many guys have a SBO% in the 30s? People could be in for a bit of a disappointment there. Even in his AAA MVP season he only stole in the mid teens (13 in 05).

The 37 sbs are seemingly at this point an outlier. I know some people were very high on Victorino, but he was on my avoid list. Simply put, Victorino doesn't have the body to play everyday. His dimunitive size (5'9" - listed at 160 lbs but more like 150) will lead to getting hurt yet again in 2008. Much more suited to be a 4th outfielder. [/QUOTE]Good point. I was glad to get what I got out of Victorino last year. He was an avoider this year especially since everything that comes out of Manuel's mouth about him is negative.

I would not be surprised to see him lose at bats this year, either by injury or manager decision. A drop in the order would be almost as fatal.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Mar 21, 2008 11:02 am

I think Victorino in the 5th can be good value.He is 27 and should get more at bats then last year, especially with Rowand gone.Plays in the best hitters park in the national league , maybe some more homers.If the legs are ok im expecting 100 runs and 40 steals.

Granderson cant hit lefties and that could lead to a platoon if he gets off to a bad start.I mean hitting 160 is pretty bad, that stat scares the hell out of me.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Mar 21, 2008 12:43 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I think Victorino in the 5th can be good value.He is 27 and should get more at bats then last year, especially with Rowand gone.Plays in the best hitters park in the national league , maybe some more homers.If the legs are ok im expecting 100 runs and 40 steals.

Granderson cant hit lefties and that could lead to a platoon if he gets off to a bad start.I mean hitting 160 is pretty bad, that stat scares the hell out of me. He's 27. Kind of a late bloomer. The power came. The sb ability came (26sb 1cs). Hitting lefties is lagging and is probably next. He may drop in the order (who's leading off for him? Irod? guy was horrid the last 3 months of the season. They didn't even play him more than 3 gms in a row he was so beat. But I digress) but a platoon is laughable. How many rotations do you think get tweaked with DET on the docket? You see that RH hitting lineup ?! Monstrous. Sure a Bedard or a Kazmir won't get bumped but i'm sure the marginal lefties do. And after they're knocked out?? Think a manager is bringing a LH out of the pen ?? Can't blame Granderson against lefties... he rarely sees them

Loops · Post by **Loops** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 6:30 am

Both Eddiejag and Quahogs maybe right with their points. No doubt both guys are talented young players that could become real perennial fantasy forces. And Granderson and Victo are ok also

The point of how many LHP the Tigers see is particularly accurate.

This is what I love about this stuff. We are all pretty good at this and put our time and sweat equity into it. Yet we all end up with different rankings and projections. It is super cool. part of what is so awesome. There are in the end many different paths to a balanced and competitive team. I find the discussion to be great.

For what it is worth I own none of Victo/Granderson/Big Z. I'm not sure where that puts my team but I feel ok about it.

I think all 3 guys could be solid, but all 3 could crap out slightly(true for all players I guess). Big Z is a super interesting case. Boy that is a lot of innings he's got on his arm. I can't wait till games start so we can settle this on the field instead of the message boards....

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 9:19 am

BIG Z has pitched more innings at 26 then anybody ive seen ever pitch,maybe back in the sixties they pitched more.He was brutal in sept and killed me in a mid season league.Those innings will keep me away.Granderson i didnt get in any leagues , i wasnt targeting him but if he fell late 3rd round i would have considered him , but he's been going much higher.

Victorino is somebody i want but he's starting to hit the 4th round , too early.I did get him in the main round 5 pick 11.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 10:37 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Can't WAIT for opening Z day!

In less than 2 weeks, Zambrano v Sheets at Wrigley. Should be about 38 degrees outside.

I see Z tossing a 2-hitter over 6, while its 50/50 Sheets' brittle arm ices up and falls off.

Nice prediction! One problem -- you got the wrong brittle arm.