Cueto gets ROCKED!!!!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 4:12 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

could have been to the friggin' second. Does it matter? Weeks said he was finally healthy and you saw the results i believe he hit sub .250 that last month with a sub 65% contact rate. if that doesn't improve, he'll be either:

1) a part time player

2) back in AAA

3) moved down in the lineup

btw, what is weeks waiting for this spring? his contact rate is even worse than before. not really the growth one would expect.

i'd like to see the guy succeed, but there is not a lot of evidence to support such growth, only the hopes and dreams of a few people who like the hr/sb Sept combo.

[ March 23, 2008, 10:29 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 4:13 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Same system, incremental improvement each season. Last season was good enough to win my league and probably beat the whole field in the second half. how will your system weed out the gutter trash that you valued so highly last year?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 4:19 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I also find it interesting the two biggest Weeks guys are Shwan and KJ Duke who have both risks their seasons on him.

KJ taking Weeks in the 5th round in the main and Shwan taking him in the 4th round in the main and ultimate. i wouldn't go so far as to say they risked their season on him. weeks could be a decent play in the 4th or a better play in the 5th if you set up a good draft around him.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 4:24 pm

if i remember correctly, the mighty men selected weeks in the 7th round. THAT is a perfect spec play. i wouldn't be surprised if weeks went in the 6th or 7th rounds in a lot of main event leagues.

[ March 23, 2008, 10:24 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 4:28 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Same system, incremental improvement each season. Last season was good enough to win my league and probably beat the whole field in the second half. how will your system weed out the gutter trash that you valued so highly last year? [/QUOTE]Overbay busted his hand on a HBP, that's hard to weed out. Bill Hall? I still don't know what happened ... PEDs maybe. Rolen is/was breaking down physically, I didn't make that mistake again.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 5:30 pm

Big Bill Hall bounce-back fan right here.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 5:52 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Big Bill Hall bounce-back fan right here. Did you get him in our draft? I have him in the ult auction at $2 - slightly better price than last yr.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 6:01 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Corey Patterson or Alfonzo Soriano. I would guess that Weeks ends up closer to Patterson's stats. If Patterson gets 500 ABs, I'd say Patterson. ... and he'd go in the 5th round too if he was locked into the leadoff spot and played 2b.

While we're doing comps --- Who hits for a higher BA, 5th-rd pick R Weeks or 4th-rd pick Chris Young. I'll take Weeks. [/QUOTE]I would take Young. [/QUOTE]Loser pays for a WTA satellite next season? [/QUOTE]Only if each get over a specified number of at bats. I don't want to see Weeks go 1-3 and break his wrist again.

[/QUOTE]That makes two of us.

Anywhere in the 400-500 minimum ABs range is ok with me. [/QUOTE]Chris Young vs. Ricky Weeks, Batting Average,

Minimum 450 ab's for both. Lets make it $100 payable at the next draft.

I ain't no Rick Thomas, I'll probably already be in too many leagues for my own good.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 6:03 pm

Sounds good Dough, I'll cut and paste in a PM so we don't lose track.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 6:06 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

"Weeks' hot streak at the end of last season pretty much coincided with the one-year anniversary of his wrist surgery, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Doctors figured it would be about a year before Weeks was fully healthy.

And, yes, he finished strong (nine homers, 10 steals in September)

." TSN

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports Weeks was rehab-free for the first time in three years this past offseason. "I feel I can do more now than in the past," Weeks said. "(Going through physical therapy) wears on you a little bit mentally."

you know sometimes you just have to connect the dots. THESE are the guys you have to take a chance on if you want a top 10% placement. You want safe in the 5th round?? Zimmerman=14rd Kouzmanoff. Victorino=10rd Ellsbury. Pence=9th rd Sheffield... Who's giving me a Weeks 9hr 10sb in a month talent later in the draft ??? NObody. Liked this post. Wasn't Magglio Ordonez a risk heading into the 2006 draft? If you're in this for $100,000, you've got to take your chances and sometimes even in the early rounds. IF you think Weeks will hit .270, 25HR, 35 steals, then you go for it in rd 5. A defendable pick for Childs if these are close to his projections.

I will say in Chicago league 4, yes the Mighty Men took Weeks with the 7pick in the 7th rd. He also drafted M Cabrera and M Young in rd 1 and 5, so I think his team was constructed more than some of the other teams to stomach the potentially low batting average that Weeks could give them. (As opposed to say Team 10- his lineup composed of 4 hitters entering rd 7 and none with a batting average likely over .285 with the exception of possibly Tulo)

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 6:10 pm

Awesome.

A tie at .280 and both are probably first rounders next year.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 10:30 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I don't EVER see crawford as a 30 homerun hitter. maybe 20-22 at his peak, but his role isn't to hit homers.

didn't crawford have a wrist injury a few years ago and then re-injured it last year. maybe that is zapping his power.

as for weeks, if he stikes out at his career rate, he'll never make it over .260 (given 500AB), unless he has a good bit of BABIP luck. given his k rate the end of last season and this spring, why would anyone project him to hit over .260 or even .250??? Very good post. I like your comment "his role isn't to hit homers". It's true. He's a leadoff hitter, and one of the best in baseball. I guarantee you Ichiro could hit 20 homers a year if he wanted to, but why would he?

Crawford has 5 full years in the majors, he's been extremely productive out of the leadoff spot. He's hit more than 4 homers in a month only 2 times in 33 months of play. I just don't see too many players who spend 5 years in the majors and then all of sudden double their homerun output. Ok, Rafael Palmeiro popped in my head as I'm typing. But steroids aside, the likelihood is that Crawford is a 25 homerun hitter on his best year, and seems to have settled into the 11-18 homer range.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 11:38 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Ias for weeks, if he stikes out at his career rate, he'll never make it over .260 (given 500AB), unless he has a good bit of BABIP luck. given his k rate the end of last season and this spring, why would anyone project him to hit over .260 or even .250??? Not that it correlates, but Weeks was a 2 time D-I batting champ in college. A lot of folks might believe he can transfer that to the bigs....eventually.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 11:39 pm

Crazy, when do most hitters reach their peak power years? Crawford is just entering his prime. 20++ hr's are bound to come, at least once, I hope.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 11:46 pm

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

Crazy, when do most hitters reach their peak power years? Crawford is just entering his prime. 20++ hr's are bound to come, at least once, I hope. I did say he'll top out at 25 homers. It really was in response to C.C. saying he'll be a perennial 30 homerun hitter.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 12:39 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I don't EVER see crawford as a 30 homerun hitter. maybe 20-22 at his peak, but his role isn't to hit homers.

didn't crawford have a wrist injury a few years ago and then re-injured it last year. maybe that is zapping his power.

as for weeks, if he stikes out at his career rate, he'll never make it over .260 (given 500AB), unless he has a good bit of BABIP luck. given his k rate the end of last season and this spring, why would anyone project him to hit over .260 or even .250??? Very good post. I like your comment "his role isn't to hit homers". It's true. He's a leadoff hitter, and one of the best in baseball. I guarantee you Ichiro could hit 20 homers a year if he wanted to, but why would he?

Crawford has 5 full years in the majors, he's been extremely productive out of the leadoff spot. He's hit more than 4 homers in a month only 2 times in 33 months of play. I just don't see too many players who spend 5 years in the majors and then all of sudden double their homerun output. Ok, Rafael Palmeiro popped in my head as I'm typing. But steroids aside, the likelihood is that Crawford is a 25 homerun hitter on his best year, and seems to have settled into the 11-18 homer range. [/QUOTE]Do you know what Soriano's high was when he was 25?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 12:48 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

I don't EVER see crawford as a 30 homerun hitter. maybe 20-22 at his peak, but his role isn't to hit homers.

didn't crawford have a wrist injury a few years ago and then re-injured it last year. maybe that is zapping his power.

as for weeks, if he stikes out at his career rate, he'll never make it over .260 (given 500AB), unless he has a good bit of BABIP luck. given his k rate the end of last season and this spring, why would anyone project him to hit over .260 or even .250??? Very good post. I like your comment "his role isn't to hit homers". It's true. He's a leadoff hitter, and one of the best in baseball. I guarantee you Ichiro could hit 20 homers a year if he wanted to, but why would he?

Crawford has 5 full years in the majors, he's been extremely productive out of the leadoff spot. He's hit more than 4 homers in a month only 2 times in 33 months of play. I just don't see too many players who spend 5 years in the majors and then all of sudden double their homerun output. Ok, Rafael Palmeiro popped in my head as I'm typing. But steroids aside, the likelihood is that Crawford is a 25 homerun hitter on his best year, and seems to have settled into the 11-18 homer range. [/QUOTE]Do you know what Soriano's high was when he was 25? [/QUOTE]I believe there is a difference. That was Soriano's 2nd year in the majors. Crawford just had his 5th year in the majors and barely broke double digit homers.

Side note: Soriano hit 3 more homers in September than Crawford had in 584 at-bats last year.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 2:08 am

You didn't answer the question. Soriano went from 18 to 39 in one year. I'm sure back in 2002 you thought he would make that jump.

puddle of nud · Post by **puddle of nud** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 2:41 am

Very good post. I like your comment "his role isn't to hit homers". It's true. He's a leadoff hitter, and one of the best in baseball.

Carl is a number 2 hitter, he hates hitting leadoff and he has the potential to one yr hit 27-30.

I think he hits .300 22 85 55SB with 110 plus runs this year. Carl will have a big year...and I don't even have him on any of my teams!!

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 2:46 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

You didn't answer the question. Soriano went from 18 to 39 in one year. I'm sure back in 2002 you thought he would make that jump. Ok, I get it. Because Soriano doubled his homerun output in his 2nd full year that somehow correlates to Crawford turning into a 30 homerun hitter in his 6th, 7th or 8th year in the bigs?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 2:54 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

You didn't answer the question. Soriano went from 18 to 39 in one year. I'm sure back in 2002 you thought he would make that jump. Ok, I get it. Because Soriano doubled his homerun output in his 2nd full year that somehow correlates to Crawford turning into a 30 homerun hitter in his 6th, 7th or 8th year in the bigs?

[/QUOTE]I think Rickey Henderson might be a better argument, although even Rickey was never a 30 homerun hitter. 28 was his high. And he could have easily hit third.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 3:06 am

My point was players improve. I'll take my chances with a great athelete that is 6'2" and weights 220 lb's and say he will figure it out.

I think the more you write the less sense you make. You went from writing about young talent improving to liking old players who will have bounce back years. You are over the board. It's like you to have to sell yourself on what you have on your team.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:30 am

I agree with Crazy that the longer a player has been in the majors the more likely his numbers are to remain static. It is hard to say. He did hit a lot of doubles last year at least, but it is still hard for me to imagine a guy jumping from 11 to 20+ homers when he's never done it before. It's certainly not out of the realm, though. You have to admit, this argument is kind of academic at this point. That is to say that I don't think anyone's team hinges on whether Crawford gets maybe 6 homers more this year, at least not in May. You are talking about maybe 28 points in the overall total.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:43 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

I agree with Crazy that the longer a player has been in the majors the more likely his numbers are to remain static. It is hard to say. He did hit a lot of doubles last year at least, but it is still hard for me to imagine a guy jumping from 11 to 20+ homers when he's never done it before. It's certainly not out of the realm, though. You have to admit, this argument is kind of academic at this point. That is to say that I don't think anyone's team hinges on whether Crawford gets maybe 6 homers more this year, at least not in May. You are talking about maybe 28 points in the overall total. That's exactly what I was trying to say Bjoak, just couldn't do it such a concise, articulate manner. Thanks. "the longer a player has been in the majors the more likely his numbers are to remain static". That was exactly my point.

Although Shawn, this is kind of a silly argument. We disagree on a such mundane topic.

But it's good.

You say Crawford will be a 30 homerun hitter.

Crazy says that if a player hasn't shown a certain pension for hitting homers (in no way, shape or form) in 5 years in the majors, then it is unlikely to happen. Of course, mentioning one player that fits your criteria is not going to sway my thinking.

And should something miraculous happen, Crawford turns into the Incredible Hulk and busts out 30 homeruns one year, he will be the exception, not the rule.

We disagree, let's just leave it at that.

We have apparently gone off-topic. The topic was your pick in Kimo's league just got knocked around.

I still like the pick though.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Mon Mar 24, 2008 10:06 am

But remember Cueto is my 7th starter...