Ryan Zimmerman

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:10 am

Contact Rate (CT%) = (AB-K)/AB

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:18 am

Blalock's young enough to pull out of his performance spiral. 5rds = continued spiral cushion. Fair enough

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:46 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Contact Rate (CT%) = (AB-K)/AB Which of course has very little to do with how often guys make contact. Another gift from the Shandler nomenclature division.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:47 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Contact Rate (CT%) = (AB-K)/AB yes, exactly

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:47 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

My number are obviously very different, for your amusement, here we go - Tulo v Zimmerman.

BA 305 280

HR 34 24

SB 16 5

R 118 87

RB 83 96

I have Tulo in 7 of my 8 NFBC lges, anyone else see him reaching these numbers? I feel cheated that I was going to take him with the pick after you for so much less.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:49 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Contact Rate (CT%) = (AB-K)/AB Which of course has very little to do with how often guys make contact. Another gift from the Shandler nomenclature division. [/QUOTE]The non-K ratio, if you prefer!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:50 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

My number are obviously very different, for your amusement, here we go - Tulo v Zimmerman.

BA 305 280

HR 34 24

SB 16 5

R 118 87

RB 83 96

I have Tulo in 7 of my 8 NFBC lges, anyone else see him reaching these numbers? I feel cheated that I was going to take him with the pick after you for so much less. [/QUOTE]what does your supercomputer show?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:57 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

My number are obviously very different, for your amusement, here we go - Tulo v Zimmerman.

BA 305 280

HR 34 24

SB 16 5

R 118 87

RB 83 96

I have Tulo in 7 of my 8 NFBC lges, anyone else see him reaching these numbers? I'm a big Tulo fan, got him in the Main. I don't make projections. But I would lower expectations on hr and sb and increase rbi. By the end of the year Hurdle should figure out that Helton with the way he takes pitches and the obp would be a sweet #2 hitter with Tulo tucked between him and Holliday.

I hope your numbers are right though!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:04 am

Do any of you guys have a source that breaks down a players seasonal batting order slot?

Example...

Player A) 609 AB 2007

2 slot 223 AB

1 slot 102 AB

8 slot 284 AB

I'd love to look at that if it's out there.

~Lance

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:06 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

My number are obviously very different, for your amusement, here we go - Tulo v Zimmerman.

BA 305 280

HR 34 24

SB 16 5

R 118 87

RB 83 96

I have Tulo in 7 of my 8 NFBC lges, anyone else see him reaching these numbers? I feel cheated that I was going to take him with the pick after you for so much less. [/QUOTE]what does your supercomputer show? [/QUOTE]Did everyone hear that note of condescension when he said 'superomputer'?

I have him at .294, 24, 9, which is still worth the spot you drafted him in when you consider the other shortstops and the continental shelf after Furcal, Jeter, Guillen.

I do think his ceiling is closer to what you posted, but I'm not drafting based on a ceiling.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:09 am

Tulo managed 64 RBI in the 2nd half of last season alone...yet you only project him in the low 80's?

He's a 23 year old superstar...just watch him grow!

~Lance

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:10 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Do any of you guys have a source that breaks down a players seasonal batting order slot?

Example...

Player A) 609 AB 2007

2 slot 223 AB

1 slot 102 AB

8 slot 284 AB

I'd love to look at that if it's out there.

~Lance ESPN for one. Hit the players name, stats, split stats, scroll down.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:11 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Do any of you guys have a source that breaks down a players seasonal batting order slot?

Example...

Player A) 609 AB 2007

2 slot 223 AB

1 slot 102 AB

8 slot 284 AB

I'd love to look at that if it's out there.

~Lance Lance, espn.com shows that by team as one of their splits.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:13 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Do any of you guys have a source that breaks down a players seasonal batting order slot?

Example...

Player A) 609 AB 2007

2 slot 223 AB

1 slot 102 AB

8 slot 284 AB

I'd love to look at that if it's out there.

~Lance I know CBS and breaks it down under situational stats. I'm sure yahoo and espn do as well, but I don't know for sure.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:21 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Do any of you guys have a source that breaks down a players seasonal batting order slot?

Example...

Player A) 609 AB 2007

2 slot 223 AB

1 slot 102 AB

8 slot 284 AB

I'd love to look at that if it's out there.

~Lance ESPN for one. Hit the players name, stats, split stats, scroll down. [/QUOTE]Thanks Dan...it doesn't show anything, but I guess it's loaded for 2008 and is waiting on games.

~Lance

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:24 am

cbs sportsline

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:30 am

Thanks guys...CBS had it just like I hoped to see it broken down.

I don't crunch numbers...but I'll have to crunch some beer cans while I look all of this over during the year.

~Lance

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:32 am

Lance, go on Yahoo to players, then choose your guy, then click on situational stats, then click on 2007 to see it broken down for last year. I like Yahoo because it loads quickly and doesn't have video and junk like that popping up all over the place and is easy to navigate.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:41 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Lance, go on Yahoo to players, then choose your guy, then click on situational stats, then click on 2007 to see it broken down for last year. I like Yahoo because it loads quickly and doesn't have video and junk like that popping up all over the place and is easy to navigate. I agree 100% on the speed of Yahoo vs. other sites.

I hate CBS...due to what you mentioned...and haven't been to their site in years until just now...so if Yahoo has it...I'll not go back for a few more years.

I guess it helps to surf more. I love Yahoo and have our LV league 3 all loaded in.

~Lance

[ March 27, 2008, 04:45 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:45 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Lance, go on Yahoo to players, then choose your guy, then click on situational stats, then click on 2007 to see it broken down for last year. I like Yahoo because it loads quickly and doesn't have video and junk like that popping up all over the place and is easy to navigate. I agree 100% on the speed of Yahoo vs. other sites.

I hate CBS...due to what you mentioned...and haven't been to their site in years until just now...so if Yahoo has it...I'll not go back for a few more years.

~Lance [/QUOTE]I hear you. I use it because it hosts our home league, but it gets worse and worse. Everytime Greg mentions that a big announcement is forthcoming, I get scared that the NFBC will be merging with ESPN or CBS or some other empty, soulless entity.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 11:05 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Contact Rate (CT%) = (AB-K)/AB Which of course has very little to do with how often guys make contact. Another gift from the Shandler nomenclature division. [/QUOTE]The non-K ratio, if you prefer! [/QUOTE]Anyone know where to find per pitch data that tells # of foul balls, swinging strikes, or standing strikes? That would be useful info. Just watching, Howard and Crosby are two that can drive you insane with the swing-and-a-miss while someone like Adam Dunn, while missing quite a bit, seems to have a higher percentage of strikes via sitting on the ball.

Anyway, I can find # of balls and strikes, but not anything more specific.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 11:08 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Lance, go on Yahoo to players, then choose your guy, then click on situational stats, then click on 2007 to see it broken down for last year. I like Yahoo because it loads quickly and doesn't have video and junk like that popping up all over the place and is easy to navigate. I agree 100% on the speed of Yahoo vs. other sites.

I hate CBS...due to what you mentioned...and haven't been to their site in years until just now...so if Yahoo has it...I'll not go back for a few more years.

~Lance [/QUOTE]I hear you. I use it because it hosts our home league, but it gets worse and worse. Everytime Greg mentions that a big announcement is forthcoming, I get scared that the NFBC will be merging with ESPN or CBS or some other empty, soulless entity. [/QUOTE]I'd guess that since CBS seems to keep close to half of the money they get as profit and ESPN close to 100%, the prize structure here would have to significantly change for a merger--and most of us will be packing our bags.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Fri Mar 28, 2008 4:33 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

The Big Alameda Machine medical staff tells me that it was the hook of his hammate bone which is more a *minor* wrist injury than a hand injury. At most you can expect a slight (maybe 10%) drop in power compared to what he would have done if healthy. The injury should not be in the same paragraph with Derrek Lee or Rickie Weeks. To put it in a context, the new park will probably help him more than the injury will hurt him.

Also, Zimmerman is such a model of health, you can make two assumptions:

1. He is likely to recover more quickly than other players in the same situation.

2. His excellent general health will help him to not have to make many alterations or at least allow him to make them successfully.

The player is sometimes the worst source for correct injury info, but here are some comments from Zim in his recent Washington Post chat:

"The minor injury is nothing to worry about anymore. I am back to 100 percent and ready to play."

"My wrist is fine! I am 100 percent and ready to go. I don't see my power declining at all this year because of the wrist injury during the offseason."

Combining everything with his spring demonstration, I would think it's pretty much a non-issue. Zimmerman's "wrist injury" wasn't the same as D Lee or H Matsui who both fractured their radius (Lee fractured the ulna too)... Zimmerman had part of the hammate removed and agree with above post this is a more "minor" surgery...

22-25HRs conservative projection, upside of 30 even though sx was in November.

Loops · Post by **Loops** » Fri Mar 28, 2008 7:05 am

This is great. To hear so many smart people with varied opinions on Zimm makes me feel better about my own cloudy projections about Ryan Z. I really appreciate the info on the actual injury as well it seems like a minor (less major?) hand issue. Just to chime in on the projections and the Blalock vs. Zimm convo a couple of points.

1- you pay for Zimm's seeming reliability. Blalock really needs to stand up and play well for 600 abs to make me feel confident in him. I mean the skills are there but..... Zimm is clearly a throwback, gamer type. He is out there grinding everyday. none of this "I'm sore today" nonsense.

2-They are different hitters. ct% or not the clearly have different approaches at the plate. Blalock strikes out a bit more, he seems to hit more FBs while swinging for the fences, Zimm is more line drive power, strike zone control. It seems to me that Zimm therefore has a little more AVG upside and maybe a better idea of how to drive in runs in situational situations and Blalock has more HR and slugging upside. Both could be far better than where they are being drafted. IMO

Blalock- 498abs 273-24hr-100rbi-82r-6sbs 2 dl stints

Zimm- 642abs 294-29hr-111rbi-96r-5sbs 49doubles and the 1st of 8 straight NL 3B gold gloves.

I'm obviously bullish here

For what it is worth I think I may target both of them in my auction this weekend. Thanks everyone.

Lopi