Seth Smith

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Sun May 25, 2008 2:15 pm

His minor league stats look very appealing, especially how he's progressed each season.

My question is, why did Stewart go for so much money in most leagues, yet Smith barely received any attention??

I'm guessing Smith outperforms Stewart during their call up.

BTW, I didn't acquire Smith in any NFBC leagues, only outside ones. Although, I did have him as a conditional bid in many leagues.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sun May 25, 2008 2:32 pm

Patrick - look at the amounts he went for in NL only leagues

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Sun May 25, 2008 3:17 pm

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

His minor league stats look very appealing, especially how he's progressed each season.

My question is, why did Stewart go for so much money in most leagues, yet Smith barely received any attention??

I'm guessing Smith outperforms Stewart during their call up.

BTW, I didn't acquire Smith in any NFBC leagues, only outside ones. Although, I did have him as a conditional bid in many leagues. He didn't get picked up in one league I know of.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon May 26, 2008 10:19 am

I don't understand the amounts that go out for some players (obviously, as I paid $153 for this guy). This guy has way better minor league numbers than Chase Headley both this year and in the past and that is before you even account for their ballparks which are on ridiculously different sides of the spectrum. If Headley is even available when he shows up he will go for hundreds while no one even raised their heads to notice Smith.

I guess if the hype machine isn't churning you bid low.

[ May 26, 2008, 04:33 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon May 26, 2008 10:47 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

I don't understand the amounts that go out for some players (obviously, as I paid $153 for this guy). This guy has way better minor league numbers than Chase Headley both this year and in the past and that is before you even account for their ballparks which are on ridiculously different sides of the spectrum. If Headley is even available when he shows up he will go for hundreds while no one even raised their heads to notice Smith.

I guess if the hype machine isn't churning you bid low. Headley will have a permanent job when he comes up, Smith probably sticks for a couple weeks.

Headley's hitting 304 with 9 HRs, Smith 321 with 6 HRS. Last season Headley 330/20, Smith 317/17. Are you looking at the right Smith?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon May 26, 2008 11:23 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

I don't understand the amounts that go out for some players (obviously, as I paid $153 for this guy). This guy has way better minor league numbers than Chase Headley both this year and in the past and that is before you even account for their ballparks which are on ridiculously different sides of the spectrum. If Headley is even available when he shows up he will go for hundreds while no one even raised their heads to notice Smith.

I guess if the hype machine isn't churning you bid low. Headley will have a permanent job when he comes up, Smith probably sticks for a couple weeks.

Headley's hitting 304 with 9 HRs, Smith 321 with 6 HRS. Last season Headley 330/20, Smith 317/17. Are you looking at the right Smith? [/QUOTE]I was also counting stolen bases which are a category we are still using as far as I know. And the last thing I am worried about is not having enough playing time to go around on the Rox. If he is great, he can neatly replace Hawpe. If not, I guess it won't matter.

All that aside, do the #'s you posted bear out a $3 bid for Seth and a $300 bid for Headley. They look pretty similar.

[ May 26, 2008, 05:25 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon May 26, 2008 1:35 pm

Except you can bid on Smith and not on Headley (most NFBC leagues)

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Mon May 26, 2008 1:59 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Are you looking at the right Smith? [/QUOTE]Whoops, I was looking at Smith, the Sky Sox pitcher.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon May 26, 2008 2:11 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

[QUOTE]

All that aside, do the #'s you posted bear out a $3 bid for Seth and a $300 bid for Headley. They look pretty similar. I drafted Headley in several lges based on my lack of faith in their existing OF, I picked him up in a few others for much less than that, probably under $100. If Smith were up to stay, which isn't obvious (at least to me), he'd be worth a decent bid. I think the difference is mostly in longevity of expected playing time. I bid high double-digits in the NL but not much in mixed lges.

Who do you think should be worth more, Smith or Spilborghs?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon May 26, 2008 3:53 pm

Who do you think should be worth more, Smith or Spilborghs?Can I pretend today didn't happen?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:41 am

Seth Smith, end of an era. Back to AAA.

Greatest Achievement: Stealing $153 of bjoak's faab.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:14 pm

Yep, mistake for sure, but luckily he didn't cost me a 5th round pick or drain all my team stats before being sent down.

Tonight I am going out to the ballpark to check on Carlos Gonzalez who can hopefully do a little more than hit a double every 4th or 5th at bat out of the 8 hole when no one is on, which is actually in the dictionary under 'fantasy uselessness'.

[ June 10, 2008, 06:15 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:25 pm

I assume this is a Weeks reference? He delivered $6 positive value while he was in there. Not the best 5th round pick, but I wouldn't call him a drain. I've been brutalized at the MI spots in the main all year, Ricky's injury is just another chapter. A sickly start overall for this team, but I'll be back in contention before the season's over.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:32 pm

Hmm, I wonder how much positive value Mike Napoli is worth...

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:55 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Hmm, I wonder how much positive value Mike Napoli is worth... $5 so far, that's after the positional adjustment.

Miguel Cabrera, by the way, has reached a season low-point, contributing $0 dollar value. Tulowitzki while he was playing was on pace for minus $23. Not a good one-two punch.

[ June 10, 2008, 06:59 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:58 pm

Weeks rd 4, Uggla Rd 10.

Interesting....

Why draft a Weeks that comes in with two strikes (injury, BA) against him?

Too much risk IMO.

People make too much out of wasted faab. You have to take calculated chances... I'd like to do a study someday... I bet than anyone that gets 500+ of their faab to really pan out has improved their chances in a decent way...

We all have a little bit more faab to waste, but not a whole lot in LV3..

[ June 10, 2008, 06:59 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:58 pm

There you have it. You should have drafted him in the 6th.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:06 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

There you have it. You should have drafted him in the 6th. I see you took Byrnes in the 2nd round. He was worth minus $3 BEFORE he got injured. Guess you should've taken Weeks instead in the 2nd.

You should be thanking me for your good season right now anyway, I know you wanted Tulo at the 2/3 turn which is why I had to reach for him in the 2nd.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:12 pm

Originally posted by UFS:

Weeks rd 4, Uggla Rd 10.

Interesting....

Why draft a Weeks that comes in with two strikes (injury, BA) against him?

Too much risk IMO.

People make too much out of wasted faab. You have to take calculated chances... I'd like to do a study someday... I bet than anyone that gets 500+ of their faab to really pan out has improved their chances in a decent way...

We all have a little bit more faab to waste, but not a whole lot in LV3.. Hindsight is great. Uggla had just as much BA risk (near the same contact rate as Weeks last season) without Ricky's speed, and was playing on a lesser hitting team in a pitchers park rather than a stacked offense in a hitters park. That was the pre-season view anyway.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:16 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

Weeks rd 4, Uggla Rd 10.

Interesting....

Why draft a Weeks that comes in with two strikes (injury, BA) against him?

Too much risk IMO.

People make too much out of wasted faab. You have to take calculated chances... I'd like to do a study someday... I bet than anyone that gets 500+ of their faab to really pan out has improved their chances in a decent way...

We all have a little bit more faab to waste, but not a whole lot in LV3.. Hindsight is great. Uggla had just as much BA risk (near the same contact rate as Weeks last season) without Ricky's speed, and was playing on a lesser hitting team in a pitchers park rather than a stacked offense in a hitters park. That was the pre-season view anyway. [/QUOTE]No hindsight at all from me. I wanted no parts of Weeks in any league.

So you drafted him for SB then, which you could get much later at less risk, w/o killing your BA.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:20 pm

How about Chris Young? Everybody loves him, he went ahead of Weeks. He is running at right about the same pace in value as Ricky, but not a peep on him because he is chronically loved.

I expected Weeks to hit around 260, 20 HR, 30 SB and score a ton of runs. Absent the unlucky BABIP he was right on that pace.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:22 pm

I saw more risk in Uggla who looked like a a one-category guy; had no interest in him. He's obviously having a great season - if he keeps it up I'll be very surprised.

YTD BABIP:

Uggla .366

Weeks .237

Uggla has struck out 43% more than Weeks (70 vs 49) in the same number of ABs. You've been very lucky with Uggla so far UFS, very lucky. And you're tempting fate here touting Dan Luckggly.

[ June 10, 2008, 07:31 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:30 pm

Gotta love all this LV3 blood feud!

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:51 pm

In hindsight we can all look very smart at times.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:43 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

There you have it. You should have drafted him in the 6th. I see you took Byrnes in the 2nd round. He was worth minus $3 BEFORE he got injured. Guess you should've taken Weeks instead in the 2nd.

You should be thanking me for your good season right now anyway, I know you wanted Tulo at the 2/3 turn which is why I had to reach for him in the 2nd. [/QUOTE]Well, first off you are forgetting that I took Byrnes instead of Tulo. Not much difference there. But you could ponder what didn't happen all day. I most wanted Berkman there (yes, more than Tulo). Judging by ADP, I had a good shot. What happens then?

But also, you assume I agree with your system. I am not going to run these guys through mine, but I'm pretty sure Euclid thinks you are underestimating the value of BA. Even still, Euclid loved Chris Young to the tune of an early 2nd rounder despite a .255 BA projection, but you have to know when to take a pass on your valuations. I wasn't going to do that or I'm going to spend the next 8 rounds chasing BA at the expense of my other stats. And Euclid thinks that Weeks is a worse BA (and health) risk than that anyway.

I was really only half joking about Napoli. Your BA was so cooked after Weeks, it would have served you well to boot it and beef up your other stats.