Sitting a Starter

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:38 am

I wanted to look at how “good” I am at moving my starting pitchers in and out of the line-up on a weekly basis. The goal would be to decide whether or not I should even bother. There seems to be two general schools of thought. One, get your best starters in (say five or six) not matter what the match-ups, ball parks, whatever. The other school teaches look for these match-ups (opponent BA at home versus LH, general ballpark tendencies, who is hurt on your defense, their offense, etc.). I have usually transferred my transcripts between the two schools (I need a REALLY good reason to sit some pitchers, while others I am checking the probability of the wind blowing out on Tuesday’s at Wrigley). There is, of course, no right answer. People have succeeded being devotees of either approach (or like me from somewhere in the middle). Not that I think I have succeeded, but I wanted to look at the numbers to see what they tell me about my performance.

First off let me say I was very happy with my starters when I left the draft. I thought (and generally still do) I had a very good core with a nice balance of upside, risk, stability, and realistic projections. My analysis concentrated on the seven pitchers I thought would get me my most starts and be the ones who would week in and week out be my base. They consist of Kazmir, Myers, Penny, Greinke, Baker, Buehrle, and Wolf. Kazmir I tagged as an Ace’s Ace on an up and coming team. I left the draft not expecting Penny to repeat his 1H 2007, but thought he would, in a contract year, be close to his historical norms. I had Myers tagged as pushing Cole Hamels for label as ace of the Phillies. Greinke and Baker I thought would show growth, but not really help me in Wins that much due to the teams they were on. I had Buehrle and Wolf as solid fillers who would not hurt me too much (i.e. ERA’s around 4.25 to 4.50, WHIP’s as expected from guys who were not fire-ballers, and K’s in about 65% of IP). So far I have really only missed on Myers and Penny, but that hurts. As a group, they have exceeded my K expectations (looking for an average of K’s in 75% of IP, I am get about 80%), but the Myers and Penny debacles have left me short on ERA, WHIP and W. I can recover, but am in a hole.

I have used my core starters on average 15 starts this year so far and only Kazmir has never been sat down in favor of someone else. For the other six, I have replaced them from one to three starts each for a total so far of eleven starts using replacements. The replacements I used in their place have given me sixteen starts (in some cases, of course, I have tried to squeeze an extra start or two out of a week as K’s are very tight in my league). The starter I have used the most as a replacement is Dana Eveland (seven starts). Others are Boof Bonser (oops but I used him for four starts over two weeks), Kevin Correia (two starts one week), Chad Gaudin (two starts one week) and Claudio Vargas (one start).

So how did I do overall? In the eleven starts I did not use my core group on, I would have only gotten one win. But, as always with Wins, that is luck. In those eleven starts, seven of them turned out to be good to great (three ER or less and at least six innings in six of the games). There were some bombs in the other fours starts, however. Three came in games at Arlington, but one other game I avoided in Arlington and one in Philly ended up actually being good starts for the pitchers (Greinke and Wolf) I benched. So, overall, those eleven starts missed generated 58.3 IP, 4.783 ERA, 1.474 WHIP, one Win, and 52 K (a K in 89% of IP).

What did I get out of my replacement 16 starts? I got five Wins and 56 K’s which is a plus/plus. WHIP was also lower (1.396) but not good and that mediocre number plus a worse ERA (4.985) carries the weight of 86.7 IP (only a 65% K rate by the way). The primary reasons I sat starters six of the eleven times were two-fold. Bad park match up (five times at Arlington and once at Philly) and I had someone on my bench that had two starts coming up that where at least one was viewed by me as being very good. Gaudin, Corriea, and Bonser (twice) were 50/50 in those two start weeks (one good start with three ER or less per game and one with five ER or more per game, plus Corriea got hurt in his second game of the week). I used Eveland twice as well in those circumstances and he actually came through all right except for too many walks.

Three times I have replaced a one start starter with another one start starter. Once I sat a two start starter for a one start starter. I was 50/50 in those four combined situations. I used Eveland three times in single-start, replacement games and he got blown up once, pitched ok once but had seven walks, and pitched very well once.

So what do I get out of all of this? I get out of this that I am only slightly smarter than some one who flips a coin. I have made replacement decisions like these in eight of the first fifteen weeks. I have ended up with better stats four times, and worse stats four times. I am going to pretty much stick with Kazmir, Baker, and Grienke week in and week out. Buehrle and Wolf probably too. I (by the grace of my friend Patrick) have Sonnanstine on my team now. I am pretty high on him and I think Tampa Bay should be in there fighting until the end so having two pitchers on that team is not bad. Any return to form by Penny (VERY questionable) or Myers (any chance Philadelphia will trade Myers to someone who needs a closer now that they have Blanton?) should mean I can field seven starters most weeks without losing too much sleep. Eveland and his walking ways may soon be walking away from my team, so I may be trolling the waiver wires.

In short (too late) while I may still avoid starts in Texas with a cautious eye to Chicago (both), Philadelphia, and Cincinnati, by and large I am going to leave my starters alone. I think that a better than 50/50 result with moving starters in and out is driven more by luck than skill.

Just more dribble from me in case you wanted a distraction.

[ July 18, 2008, 08:43 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:06 am

Very nice post. Wolf is actually a good starter for K's, but not much else. I have started benching him on the road, although, I have him starting this week in St. Louis.

I have just began really looking at the smae type of thing with my starters in one league.

I think, in general, if you don't have at least 4 #1 - #3's that you are comfortable starting each week, than you are in trouble no matter what. Obviously, a fifth is even better.

Picking match ups has helped me out in the last 2-3 weeks, but what has really helped my ERA and whip over that time, was sticking in a set up guy, like Zumaya or Balfour, instead of a stiff, hoping for a win. (Not to mention, Verlander is finally starting to come around somewhat)

Enjoyed your post.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:23 am

Thanks! The six run first inning last night by Grienke sure was not pleasant. At least the three run home run Buehrle gave up was to Butler, whom I had starting. Buehrle/Grienke...10 ER, 10 IP...sweet....

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:18 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Thanks! The six run first inning last night by Grienke sure was not pleasant. At least the three run home run Buehrle gave up was to Butler, whom I had starting. Buehrle/Grienke...10 ER, 10 IP...sweet....

Wayne - know what u mean. I have ALL bad SP matchups during this short week. Yanks, red sox, mets, angels. Pitiful.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Jul 19, 2008 6:03 am

The Greinke outing could have been worse , he left with the bases loaded and the relief pitcher Peralta didnt let any one score.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sat Jul 19, 2008 12:41 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Thanks! The six run first inning last night by Grienke sure was not pleasant. At least the three run home run Buehrle gave up was to Butler, whom I had starting. Buehrle/Grienke...10 ER, 10 IP...sweet....

Wayne - know what u mean. I have ALL bad SP matchups during this short week. Yanks, red sox, mets, angels. Pitiful. [/QUOTE]Ouch! Well, your team is still kicking butt so hope you get some good results even with the tough match-ups. Good luck!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sat Jul 19, 2008 12:43 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

The Greinke outing could have been worse , he left with the bases loaded and the relief pitcher Peralta didnt let any one score. I didn't see the game, but with all the hits he gave up, I figured it could have been worse. I guess I need to add Mr. Peralta to my Christmas card list.