News Flash! I will not Win!

[Edwards Kings]

I liked my team. I really did. But I come to the conclusion that I do not like them too much anymore. That is because I have come to the realization that I am not going to win the NFBC…again. Actually, I came to that realization sometime in the May/June time frame, but still have been plugging away and I will still be active trying to claw my way up the standings. I’m getting massacred, but I will not quit. Me, the ’62 Mets, and Custer…three of a kind. Though the season is not yet over, I have been doing a little “pre-mortem” on the Edwards Kings – 2008.



I looked first at my offensive offense. About a week ago, I took the “Fantasy Year to Date” stats for my league, Orlando #1. There are some great NFBC contestants in this crowd by the way. Chris Garcia, Dave Clum, Marty Bedell, Rey Diaz, Ira Kerker (and son), Norm Kent, John Noeske, Zac Staples/Josh Schwartz, Mike Duggan, Patrick Welsh, and Sammy Zahler (if I left anybody out, it is only because I ran out of short-term memory sometime in the Nixon administration). Great guys and we really have been cheering each other on all season.



Anyway, I started by comparing at-bats. Fantasy baseball offensive is all about at-bats. The more you have, the more your counting stats go up. Not new information, but I looked to see if this could tell me exactly where my team pulled caused me to pull a Jay Johnstone (except I never managed to get my pants up again). And it did help. When comparing my top eleven players with the most at-bats, my teams offense actually ranked first. That included some disappointments like Ramon Hernandez (16th round) and Yuniesky Betancourt (21st). The other nine were Utley (1st), Vladdy (2nd), Aramis Ramirez (3rd), Abreu (4th), Hawpe (7th), Dye (8th), Conor Jackson (13th), Orlando Hudson (15th), and David DeJesus (19th). Though DeJesus has missed some time and Hudson is now out for the season, I really cannot blame injuries. Many are doing better and had much worse luck.



It is obvious what my strategy was and I have posted it before. Speed. All speed all the time. Whoops! Slipped into a parallel universe there for a while. This is very nearly the slowest team in all of the NFBC. Actually, all of these guys were picked because they were reliable producers of BA and other counting stats for their position. Just like in 2007, I did not get a handle on speed, but even with that glaring weakness, this team fared very favorably in the offensive stats. Unfortunately, the NFBC requires fourteen position players, not eleven. This was a real solid core, so what happened to the other three.



Honest Mom, the first one of these was not my fault. I generally do not pick players after big contracts, but this guy was such a model of consistency, I targeted him. Kenji Johjima was supposed to be my solid if unspectacular No. 1 catcher. His history spoke of durability and production, especially at his position. Let others gamble on J.R. Towles. I wanted a proven entity. Nothing should surprise anyone in fantasy baseball, but this one comes real darn close. I ended up with a big buck FA replacement, Jeff Clement. As far as bidding goes, I guess I did not overspend ($203 vs the next highest of $167) especially given this was the week of the Max Scherzer sweepstakes, but only in the last couple of weeks has his hitting finally started to come around. Not enough time to salvage the position.



The next one is mine. All mine. To say that this guy has a bad injury history is an understatement (he has been hurt more times than the entire Knievel family), but he had a great end of the last season and was in a contract year, another one of my “2008 Filters”. Hank Blalock (11th) will be back for the loosely describe stretch run, but his arm hurts so much that they are putting back a first (Chris Davis will move to third…what a defense…got any Rangers pitchers?). I did draft for this contingency. I picked a cornerman at Utility (next paragraph) plus Dmitri Young (I had not faith in Nick Johnson staying healthy) and Chad Tracy. I though if Blalock did get hurt for a few weeks (giggle giggle), one of these would be able to fill in. Young nor Tracy were healthy when I needed them, I had already dropped my Utility guy (next paragraph) so I filled in with Lamb (ok for a couple of weeks, but tanked) and Millar (gave a few counting stats, but not enough to make up the difference). I wanted 80-20-80-.280 out of my CM position. It is not going to happen.



My Utility was a “Tuffy Rhodes” Finalist this year. Had three homeruns VERY early and was out of a job VERY early. I wrote about why I picked him earlier. Not too old (32). Back up to an over-priced star until getting a new team and a starting job this year. Left-handed hitter in Arlington. What a steal in the 24th round. Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Ben Broussard. This is two years running I picked players with Broussard’s potential, but neither panned out. I think the logic was good, but the results reek. I have played a half a dozen players here. May get 20 HR out of the position, but nothing else.



Actually, for all three of these guys (Johjima, Blalock, and Broussard) the logic was sound. And I do not think I am rationalizing. I made thoughtful (I will not say intelligent) picks based on some good numbers.



My problems were two fold. One, you should not ditch a category. I did draft Freel to try and get some speed, but I hated the pick when I made it and I hate it now. Not good planning. Second, never back up question marks (and in this league, you will have question marks) with question marks. It is a formula for disaster. Or at least a formula to finish somewhere in the middle, but it ain’t a money strategy. You need to click on all cylinders to win this thing, but I am afraid I have too many fouled plugs.



Just more thoughts for those not engorging themselves on football. Let’s try to keep the message board going if we can. I will do my pitchers later.



[ August 18, 2008, 03:08 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[JohnZ]

I commend you for playing it out.



There's a Super owner that hasn't picked up a FA in months and has DL'd players in his lineup and very good players on his bench.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by JohnZ:

I commend you for playing it out.



There's a Super owner that hasn't picked up a FA in months and has DL'd players in his lineup and very good players on his bench. Wow! You always hope that no personal tragedy hit which would keep them from competing.



We have a similar circumstance in Mag II (although to play in that one is much less expensive). The person hasn't had any transactions of any kind since activating Bonderman on April 18th.

[sportsbettingman]

I thought this thread was from GG trying for some last minute reverse Karma love!



~Lance

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I thought this thread was from GG trying for some last minute reverse Karma love!



~Lance Hey, Lance. How is it going?



I could use any help I can get, but I'm just trying to keep something going on these boards while most seem to be trying to decide which tight end to pair up with a wide reciever (sounds like a Barry Manilow concert).

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I thought this thread was from GG trying for some last minute reverse Karma love!



~Lance Hey, Lance. How is it going?



I could use any help I can get, but I'm just trying to keep something going on these boards while most seem to be trying to decide which tight end to pair up with a wide receiver (sounds like a Barry Manilow concert). [/QUOTE]Doing great, Wayne!



Nice write up!



I've come to grips that I'm not up to snuff with the caliber of fantasy baseball player this competition consists of.



I studied hard, and still got smoked.



I'll keep fighting...but looking at the leaderboard, and seeing Childs and Srebro and Jupinka up there year after year...I know I'm outclassed in baseball.



Now FOOTBALL...that's a different story!



~Lance

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I've come to grips that I'm not up to snuff with the caliber of fantasy baseball player this competition consists of.



I studied hard, and still got smoked.



I'll keep fighting...but looking at the leaderboard, and seeing Childs and Srebro and Jupinka up there year after year...I know I'm outclassed in baseball.

lance - don't sell yourself short. study up on what you think makes the top gamers successful and try and incorporate that into your gameplan.

[bjoak]

Couple of thoughts on the nicely written article and some constructive criticism on the season:



My problems were two fold. One, you should not ditch a category. I did draft Freel to try and get some speed, but I hated the pick when I made it and I hate it now. Not good planning. While I agree that I don't like to ditch categories, your problem here is your half-assed attempt to ditch a category. Why in the world would you waste a pick on Abreu? You're paying for 20 steals that are going to be worthless to your team. Throwing Freel in is another bad idea for the same reason. When you're planning to only get a couple points in speed, why are you going to plug a guy into your lineup who can't help you in the other categories you are planning to kill in? Even Utley, if you planned for him to play like most expected, you paid for ten steals when you could have gotten 10 more homers elsewhere. Obviously the pick worked out, but at the time it didn't mesh with your strategy.



Actually, for all three of these guys (Johjima, Blalock, and Broussard) the logic was sound. And I do not think I am rationalizing. I made thoughtful (I will not say intelligent) picks based on some good numbers.

I don't think you are rationalizing, but I do think you are making excuses when you should be figuring out where your mistakes were. Since I have a big mouth, I will tell you: First off, Blalock. The dude has not been healthy in three years and has not been effective in four. That is a lifetime in baseball and the pick also violates this principle:



Fantasy baseball offensive is all about at-bats. The more you have, the more your counting stats go up. Counting on Blalock for at bats is like counting on Mark Prior for innings. Broussard is another guy who was very risky to get at bats to start the season, to say nothing of the fact that guys who have no chance to hit lefties, even if they get the playing time just drag you down with them.



I ended up with a big buck FA replacement, Jeff Clement. As far as bidding goes, I guess I did not overspend ($203 vs the next highest of $167) especially given this was the week of the Max Scherzer sweepstakesIt sounds like you are saying, "I bought an expensive free agent so he should have produced." That is backwards logic to me. Free agent prices are driven up by the pool of fantasy managers who in the end average out to be average. In other words, counting on the hype machine to be right more than half the time doesn't work. You have to love a player for your own reasons to spend the money on him. In Jeff Clement's career, he had exactly 172 good at bats in Triple A and that is it. And he wasn't even an eligible catcher when you paid for him. I mean he had power in Tacoma in 2007, but while a .275 average doesn't hurt your eyes, it doesn't transition to the majors very well either. And then you have to worry that the power will actually show up in Safeco.



I think you had some good ideas in terms of your plan and then you didn't want to stick with them when push came to shove. I think if you went hard core all power and average and seriously only took players guarenteed at bats, you'd be in a much better position now.



[ August 19, 2008, 05:52 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

[Edwards Kings]

Thanks for the observations and many are bang on. They are well accepted. For discussion sake, I would like to open the door on some additional thought processes on a few points.



On Abreu, if you look at him in conjuction with my first four picks (Utley, Vladdy, AmRam and Abreu) you see solid and sometimes spectacular results over their collective careers. Their SB, while not going to give me any leads in that category, were being counted on to contribute or at least be average (I have average at about 10 SB each for each of my offensive players) and not hurt me. I was only looking for abour 40 SB out of this group. They have collectively about 30 now, so I will not be too far off at the end of the year. Abreu fits with this group. Besides the SB, the group are all hitting over .284, 70-82 R, 15-30 HR, and 74-83 RBI. A lot of AB's and a lot of production.



The ditching of the category (and here you are right that you cannot be half baked in this attempt) was in the 7th and 8th rounds when Hawpe and Dye were still there. I just could not resist the BA/HR/RBI potential. Hawpe is finally coming around and Dye has been great. No speed though and I never recovered.



I had hoped (and may try this again) to have most of my SB come from the group at large (no one big SB threat, but as many at or right above the average as possible) and de-risk the category rather that draft Crawford and Byrnes and hope for the best (if anyone did that, sorry, just an example). Still, my top 11 still match up very favorably in total to just about anybodies line-up. Not getting defensive, but I have so little to cheer about!



I did go for Clement and I did have concern about his BA. But at that time and with Johjima playing so badly, there were not that many catching prospects out there with his power/potential. I was willing to wait for the 10 games. Should have come sooner, but they are idiots in Seattle.



Blalock was a stupid koolaide pick. Shouldn't have made it and I have no excuse.



Anyway, thanks again for the comments. Glad you enjoyed the article. I'll be back next year. Maybe by the time President Chelsea Clinton is inagurated, I will have won something!

[bjoak]

Oh, I misunderstood. I thought you intentionally punted. Still, you can take away from that a) don't change your plan mid-draft and b) when you plan to go halfway on something it usually ends up punted. I have made both mistakes before myself is how I learned them.

[bjoak]

Oh, I misunderstood. I thought you intentionally punted. Still, you can take away from that a) don't change your plan mid-draft and b) when you plan to go halfway on something it usually ends up punted. I have made both mistakes before myself is how I learned them.