The Off-season

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:28 pm

Well I'm enjoying football and the NFFC right now but I'm already thinking about baseball. This past year, I started preparing in mid January for the NFBC and here were my final results:

NFBC MAIN: 103rd place (4th place in league)

$250 satellite: 4th place

Another $250 satellite: 4th place

It was a fun season (always is!) but frustrating to finish where I did in each league. Well, this year I will start preparing again like I did last year. I felt like I was just a player or two away in each league and know where my mistakes were so hopefully I'll have better results this year...

Anyways, I was wondering to anyone reading this, when do you start seriously preparing for the NFBC (main or satellites)? Also, one of the things I've done this year is save all my draft info and league-draft results to see where I went right and wrong last year. Well that is my plan anyway once football ends. Anyone else willing to share any other method they use to prepare for the NFBC?

It seems like the football season passes so quickly which is a shame, but on a bright note that also means that spring training isn't too far away.

ssmarsh · Post by **ssmarsh** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 1:28 am

I'm not in the NFBC, but I've already begun preparing for my 2009 baseball league.

2008 regular season stats are widely available on the web so I download them, massage them into the format that best suits my league categories and go from there. I play in a keeper league so I'm already scouring over last season's final rosters to start preticting who will be kept, who'll be available, and how much auctoin $$ I'll have to spend.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 3:18 am

I think you look at it here and there, but you really get thinking about it when there is some player movement. Baseball is a long season and it's nice to have a break. Last year I did some work on baseball right after the season. This year I'll start to get ready starting in December. We have a NFBC draft in early January. This is will get us thinking about the draft and how players will fall.

The Shandler book comes out in December, but fantasy baseball information or magazines don't come out until after January 15.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 4:06 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

The Shandler book comes out in December, but fantasy baseball information or magazines don't come out until after January 15. Not to hijack this thread (of course, anytime a sentence is started with Not to...it means you are about to) but, wouldn't it be nice if Shandler had a little competition, or even he can do it himself, by publishing a magazine for the advanced fantasy player?

I would think with the popularity of Shandler's book that a publication with more advanced numbers, splits, and relevant data would be received well.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 7:39 am

I think it is hard to do too much work before January because there is so much movement up until then. I can project a pitcher but then he moves or worse, loses his job, and it's a lot of wasted time. Most of what I do prior to the holidays is tinkering with Euclid, my projection, valuation, drafting system to make sure it's ready. Then just kicking around, reading, and checking on players to see where they might go. I do any new work that I've wanted to do non-specific to the season--for example, I just finished a study on the utility of first pitch strikes. Then, a couple days after Christmas, I'll really start looking at depth charts and evaluating playing time and that will launch me into my full-on season prep. It is always a photo finish between finishing my prep and the first draft. Kudos to you guys who draft in January. I don't know how you do it.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 8:19 am

Not to hijack this thread (of course, anytime a sentence is started with Not to...it means you are about to) but, wouldn't it be nice if Shandler had a little competition, or even he can do it himself, by publishing a magazine for the advanced fantasy player? Probably not going to happen for the 2009 season, but I know someone putting the wheels in motion for it to happen for the 2010 campaign

[ October 18, 2008, 02:20 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Spartacus · Post by **Spartacus** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 11:48 am

The day after the season I start marking the calendar and begin the countdown to 'Draft Day'. Then I sit on my fat behind until I get an E-mail from Shawn sometime in December annoucing the draft date for the SCL (Shawn Childs League). Quickly I go to the computer, as the magazines aren't out yet, and over the next week or so I loosely assemble a list and hope that my lack of preparation is no worse than anybody else's. You're right Brian, we all suffer from a lack of information at that early date. However, since it's the same for everyone the playing field in that regard is neutral. What isn't neutral is the amount of talent that's concentrated in that league. After drafting in the SCL, draft day jitters come March are long gone, I get an early read on ADP and practice in as tough a tactical environment as I could hope to find. In short, drafting in the SCL and a pocketful of magic beans and I'm good to go. (Having good partners also helps.)

By the way, I just got back from Yellowstone-Little Big Horn-Black Hills (actually saw 3 grizzlies) and I'm playing the message board catch up game. A few thoughts: Dan (Kenyon) I just read your last post in the "All Time Money Winners" thread and unsurprisingly it was well written and spot on. Shawn (Childs) and Eddie (Gillis)-Thanks for your earlier acknowledgements, your kind words are going directly into the trophy case! As an FYI, our friend Nevadaman has substantial action at 100-1 on Tampa Bay to win the AL pennant. We should all attend our places of worship tonight and say a little prayer. (Sox fans are of course excused from services.)

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 3:05 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

I think you look at it here and there, but you really get thinking about it when there is some player movement. Baseball is a long season and it's nice to have a break. Last year I did some work on baseball right after the season. This year I'll start to get ready starting in December. We have a NFBC draft in early January. This is will get us thinking about the draft and how players will fall.

The Shandler book comes out in December, but fantasy baseball information or magazines don't come out until after January 15. Yes I usually get the Shandler book on Christmas and by then I'm excited to start preparing for the drafts...

I've never heard of Euclid. Is it software where you can input your own player projections? I'm not sure what most of you do especially those of you who are proven winners, but I never have used a software program to run stats.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 3:35 pm

Welcome to Brian's world! I believe it's his design.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:02 pm

Yes, I built it. Plenty of other people have built programs to project players and valuation programs and drafting software so it's nothing radically different. I just like to put a cute name on it to create fodder for the message board.

I've never heard of Euclid. Is it software where you can input your own player projections?While part of Euclid's job is to create projections, you could put your own into it also. It will spit out a single number or 'valuation' to tell you how much that player is worth in comparison to others in its database. People got sick of trying to determine whether Adam Dunn or Juan Pierre is worth more so that is where the need for valuations arose, though, in draft, it is very useful to look at one number to see who the most valuable players left on the board are. Then when you draft a player you plug him into a different spreadsheet that tells you how well you are doing in terms of balance--what you have and what you need, that kind of thing.

There are other kinds of software people use. I think Zaleski developed something to tell him what kinds of trends are arising in the draft, but I don't do that. It works for others but personally when I have too much business to look at I lose the focus from my own team.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Oct 19, 2008 5:43 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Probably not going to happen for the 2009 season, but I know someone putting the wheels in motion for it to happen for the 2010 campaign

is there a "leak" at Gekko Industries?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Oct 19, 2008 6:01 am

is there a "leak" at Gekko Industries? [Mad] I overheard a conversation between my paperboy and the guy delivering my bottled water.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 4:54 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: is there a "leak" at Gekko Industries? [Mad] I overheard a conversation between my paperboy and the guy delivering my bottled water. [/QUOTE]

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:54 am

For me the Bill James handbook kicks off the new year. It's the base that all others work from.

freddiezee · Post by **freddiezee** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 12:48 pm

I think after the season it's a good idea to do a wrap-up of statistics - look at your projections and see if there were common themes on the players you were most wrong on. I look to see if I properly assessed age factors, playing time stability, injury risk etc. It's amazing how many players we are all very wrong on each year! That only takes a few hours and then I like to get away from it for a while (until at least December) and clear my head. It takes the emotional attachment (positive or negative) away from certain players that I owned during the season. Getting the Baseball Forecaster generally cues me to start thinking about baseball again and I start seriously working on my rankings after Christmas. I much prefer fantasy baseball over fantasy football because it covers the sport in better depth, but fantasy football provides a nice little diversion during the fall!