What do they have in common?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 7:06 pm

Take a look at these two groups of player seasons from the past four years:

Group A:

Javier Vazquez 2006 4.84 ERA 1.29 WHIP 1.02 HR/9

Randy Johnson 2006 5.00 ERA 1.24 WHIP 1.23 HR/9

Justin Verlander 2008 4.84 ERA 1.40 WHIP 0.81 HR/9

Dave Bush 2006 4.41 ERA 1.14 WHIP 1.11 HR/9

Group B:

Jarrod Washburn 2005 3.20 ERA 1.33 WHIP 0.96 HR/9

Jeff Suppan 2005 3.57 ERA 1.38 WHIP 1.11 HR/9

Chuck James 2007 4.24 ERA 1.38 WHIP 1.79 HR/9

John Lackey 2008 3.75 ERA 1.23 WHIP 1.43 HR/9

Group A includes pitchers who drastically outperformed their ERA but still managed to give up a pile of runs. Group B has stats that should have led to some seriously poor seasons, but they did well.

I guess it would be easy to dismiss these seasons as outliers, especially since Group A has pitchers with good reputations and Group B mostly does not, but I am wondering if there is another way to explain how they showed up every 5th day and compiled exceptionally unlikely run totals. Please post if you have comments on what one or more of these guys did to end up with such an unusual ERA.

[ November 10, 2008, 01:10 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 4:01 am

I think this is explainable (at least in terms of numbers) looking at LOB%. The problem is there is no way to predict when the following situations will arise from year to year, thus like a BABIP well off the norm of about .300, a high or low LOB% is to a great degree happenstance, making the season an outlier.

LOB%, as defined by the Hardball Times public glossary "is the percentage of baserunners allowed that didn't score a run. LOB% is used to track pitcher's luck or effectiveness (depending on your point of view). The exact formula is (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR))."

There are many anecdotal factors that impact LOB% such as:

-number of men on base during HR

-bullpen's effectiveness when relieving a starter mid-jam

-pitcher's guile to escape trouble, which may include ability to get a strikeout or DP grounder

The league average LOB% is about 70%. A higher number means more runners were stranded, leading to a better ERA than the peripherals might suggest, a lower number leads to a worse ERA than expected.

I don't have time to go through all 8 pitchers now, but I'll do a couple and work through the rest later.

VAZQUEZ

2004 69.2%

2005 72.0%

2006 65.8%

2007 74.5%

2008 68.3%

The year in question is 2006, where he had his worst LOB%. The following year it was 74.5% Did he suddenly learn how to pitch better with men on base? If so, did he forget how in 2008? Doubtful (though the perception is he is not a clutch pitcher) -- he was less fortunate in 2006 and quite fortunate in 2007. The other 3 years are basically league average. Vazquez' 2007 would have been even better save for a high HR/9 of 1.27, as compared to 1.02 and 1.08 the year previous and following respectively. Projecting Vazquez for 2009, I will likely have him right around 70%.

WASHBURN

2004 69.7%

2005 81.8%

2006 69.8%

2007 71.4%

2008 70.5%

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong....

(Greg -- we need musical notes icons

)

[ November 10, 2008, 10:05 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 4:17 am

Very nice, Todd. Do you think that "pitching out of the stretch" is an ability that is repeatable? For example, do some pitchers have a higher percentage of K's with men on base compared to their normal rate than other pitchers do?

More specifically, if during a season player A had 8 K/9 normally and 7 K/9 out of the stretch, while player B had 8 K/9 normally and 5 K/9 out of the stretch, would you expect that trend to continue or is it just noise during the season and they'll both revert to the mean next year?

[ November 10, 2008, 10:20 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 4:27 am

JOHNSON

2004 69.5%

2005 74.1%

2006 61.8%

2007 72.6%

2008 70.9%

Unit was a Yankee 2005 and 2006. This extremely unlucky LOB% in 2006 is the reason the perception is the stage of NYC was too much for him. Did he really freeze up with runners on? Why in 2005 did he pitch better with runners on, it was still Yankee Stadium? 2006 looks like real dumb luck, of the bad variety.

SUPPAN

2004 72.6%

2005 75.5%

2006 72.3%

2007 70.4%

2008 71.2%

Curiously, Suppan has had a LOB% a bit better than the league average for the previous 5 seasons. This is statistically possible simply due to randomness. If 32 people flip a coin 5 times, 1 will flip 5 heads (or 5 tails). So statistically, it is possible for 1 out of 32 pitchers to be lucky or unlucky 5 straight years.

Or maybe #3 above is the case and the normally non-dominant Suppan, whose K/9 ranged from 4.6-5.3 over this 5 year span, may have been able to reach back for something extra and get the needed K with runners on.

That said, 2005 is clearly his best (luckiest?) LOB%.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 4:36 am

Very nice, Todd. Do you think that "pitching out of the stretch" is an ability that is repeatable? For example, do some pitchers have a higher percentage of K's with men on base compared to their normal rate than other pitchers do?

More specifically, if during a season player A had 8 K/9 normally and 7 K/9 out of the stretch, while player B had 8 K/9 normally and 5 K/9 out of the stretch, would you expect that trend to continue or is it just noise during the season and they'll both revert to the mean next year? Funny you should mention pitching from the stretch, as I have long advocated collecting the data for this as I am incredibly curious if this is a factor. Unfortunately, I don't believe anyone is collecting this data, though I am about to do my yearly inquiring if any of the services have added this to their repertoire.

I don't have the number with me now, but if you make common assumptions about when most pitchers use the stretch and windup and analyze the data broken out according to men on base in specific situations, the BABIP from the stretch is a little worse than the windup. Tangentially, the L-L and R-R BABIP are a little better than L-R and R-L BABIP, suggesting at least to a small extent, BABIP is not COMPLETELY out of the hand of the pitcher, just that the level of control they exert gets masked by the luck involved.

[ November 10, 2008, 10:47 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 5:45 am

You probably know that just going to the situational stats on a player's Yahoo page will tell you a pitcher's stats with runners on. It's not ideal and god knows it's not sortable but I'd like to go through them at some point and see what I can see. Just really lazy to pull all those stats to get together a decent sample.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 6:47 am

Take a look at Dave Bush this year.

His low WHIP and relatively high ERA got me curious. He could be your poster boy. Although Milwaukee management is to blame also. In only five of his 29 starts was he yanked with runners on. His throwing from the stretch stats have to be astronomical.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 8:40 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Take a look at Dave Bush this year.

His low WHIP and relatively high ERA got me curious. He could be your poster boy. Although Milwaukee management is to blame also. In only five of his 29 starts was he yanked with runners on. His throwing from the stretch stats have to be astronomical. He was in group A!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 8:52 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Take a look at Dave Bush this year.

His low WHIP and relatively high ERA got me curious. He could be your poster boy. Although Milwaukee management is to blame also. In only five of his 29 starts was he yanked with runners on. His throwing from the stretch stats have to be astronomical. He was in group A! [/QUOTE]2006!

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:30 am

VERLANDER

2006 78.3%

2007 74.9%

2008 65.4%

YIKES!!!!

After 2007, some might have argued that Verlander had the ability to 'pitch in the clutch' as his LOB% his first 2 full seasons was well above league average. But what happened in 2008? Did he lose 'guile'? Was he unlucky? Was he hurt so whatever it was he was able to do the previous 2 seasons, perhaps adding a foot or two to his heater with RISP failed him in 2008?

Without delving too much into it now, methinks Verlander is going to be a very tough projection for 2009, probably falling into the high risk, high reward category, which for me personally means I will not be owning him, as I prefer not to incur that risk with respect to pitching at the point it will take to secure his services.

JAMES

2006 79.4%

2007 81.9%

2008 64.4%

The year Brian highlighted was 2007, where he had a HR/9 of 1.79. Basically, his LOB% of 81.9% saved his ass. Most likely, he gave up an inordinate number of solo shots, which really cannot be expected to be repeated, as evidenced by his 2008 LOB%, albeit in a smaller sample.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:38 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Take a look at Dave Bush this year.

His low WHIP and relatively high ERA got me curious. He could be your poster boy. Although Milwaukee management is to blame also. In only five of his 29 starts was he yanked with runners on. His throwing from the stretch stats have to be astronomical. He was in group A! [/QUOTE]2006! [/QUOTE]No, I know. I thought you didn't see him there which would actually make your comment quite prescient.

Todd, thanks for the info. I came up with the list by puttting post-projection ERA's next to real ERA's and finding the difference for all pitchers over the last four years. These were the ones that stood out the most as inexplicable just looking at the three numbers I used rather than the very top and bottom of the list. Anyway, of note, yes, I saw one of Verlander's seasons at the bottom of the list as well when he overachieved in ERA. Really odd.