Baseball Stock Watch

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 5:18 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Johan beginning of first. Lince and CC in end 2nd or third. Hamels will be gone long before you get to 6th Raskolnikov...I say 4th.

Lince worries me:

a) he is a smallish guy with violent motion

b) innings and pitch counts

c) I still think SF is a bottom offensive team. THus wins will be tougher for him then other SPs. If a SP can cover 4 categories, youre looking at a guy who, if healthy, can dominate only 3 categories and be left at the hands of Aaron Rowand for the 4th...look at what has happened to Cain. Lince will not be on the Schws this year.

Give me Haren in the fifth. Schws-

I really don't think Cain has as much guts as Lincecum. Cain is great talent, but he finds way to lose games. It might not be the case if the teams improves.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 5:21 am

is childs starting to study bases??? football must be winding down...go luck with foots the rest of the way childs!!

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 5:22 am

Originally posted by Raskolnikov:

Nice Hijack Brian-

CC as a Bronx resident will get over valued.

Lincecum is the real deal but my question is "when will those 130 pitch outings catch up to him?" This year, next?

Johan is....Johan. No way I take any pitcher the first 2 1/2 rounds at the earliest.

Hamels is fun to watch but I am not biting until after the 6th. I don't know how much CC can be over valued. His numbers will put him in the 2nd/3rd round. How much earlier would he go being a Yankee? He could only pass a couple more pitchers in the draft order.

[ November 22, 2008, 12:05 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 5:24 am

Originally posted by RoundTrippers:

is childs starting to study bases??? football must be winding down...go luck with foots the rest of the way childs!! One more week and we have no more free agent pick ups and we have 5 weeks until our first draft. I think you need to mark down January 6 on your calender!

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 5:29 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Rask., There are 7 rds to NFL draft, so I guess 4th round qualifies as "back end" From the perspective a a Giant fan, he seems to know what he is doing.

When I looked at the teams that finsished well this year in main draw, common thread seemed to be getting closers who performed like top drawer guys in the mid rounds 10-14...guys like Lidge, B WIlson. Also FA pick ups...seemd like a lot of successful owners got on C Lee and Alexei Ramirez bandwagon. Even though Q, McLouth were two of bigger surprises, that was my impression. The tough part of the NFBC is copying what worked last year. I think every year we have a different inventory of players. The drafting opportunities at certain position won't come from the same area of the draft from one year to the next.

Haren is a solid pitcher, but he has no chance of striking out 250.

[ November 22, 2008, 11:32 AM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 5:54 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Raskolnikov:

Nice Hijack Brian-

CC as a Bronx resident will get over valued.

Lincecum is the real deal but my question is "when will those 130 pitch outings catch up to him?" This year, next?

Johan is....Johan. No way I take any pitcher the first 2 1/2 rounds at the earliest.

Hamels is fun to watch but I am not biting until after the 6th. I don't know how much he can he over valued. His numbers will put him in the 2nd/3rd round. How much earlier would he go being a Yankee? He could only pass a couple more pitchers in the draft order. [/QUOTE]Sean, are you talking about CC here? Not sure what you are saying.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 6:04 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Raskolnikov:

Nice Hijack Brian-

CC as a Bronx resident will get over valued.

Lincecum is the real deal but my question is "when will those 130 pitch outings catch up to him?" This year, next?

Johan is....Johan. No way I take any pitcher the first 2 1/2 rounds at the earliest.

Hamels is fun to watch but I am not biting until after the 6th. I don't know how much he can he over valued. His numbers will put him in the 2nd/3rd round. How much earlier would he go being a Yankee? He could only pass a couple more pitchers in the draft order. [/QUOTE]Sean, are you talking about CC here? Not sure what you are saying. [/QUOTE]Yes, Sorry

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 6:43 am

CC: I agree that each year presents different set of circumstances, to some degree. Also, certain events are really not controllable. For instance, what if you know three weeks into season that Alexei Ram. is going to be a stud, but some other guy does too and blows away your bid with something ridiculous (in my league someone bid $254 for Dempster in 2nd week. THis bid turned out to be prophetic, but I think we would have all agreed in APril that this was an insane bid). Or getting a guy like Quentin in mid 20's round...sure the guy who drafts him will say he knew he would be good, but for every Quentin, there is a Willie Mo Pena etc.

All of that said, I do believe that there are basic formulas for drafting that are more probable to be successful then others, with everything else being equal, which of course, it is not. Not to mention, drafting is probably only 55%-60% of the NFBC game(and smaller in leagues with trading)

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 8:46 am

The problem with a player like Alexei Rameriz is many people thought he had some talent. He gets hot late in spring training and puts his name on the fantasy map. He plays sporadically in April is supposed to be a bad second baseman. As this season progresses, some teams had to cut him because of other needs or injuries. They were either happy with their middle infield or thought he wasn't strong enough as a 4th/5th outfielder. He get a chance to play everyday for a week in mid May. You could have him for short money if you thought he would get a fair shot to play everyday. The next week he does it again and is price goes up even more. I missed him the second week 101 to 97. It was the difference in winning or losing my league.

The same goes for Demspter. He was drafted in some league. He pitched well the first week and went $50-$75. The next week, a team will pitching problems ponies up big dollars and you are left in the cold if you missed him. It basically comes down to being a week late on a player. A top fantasy player will most likely get this player a week early if he has a problem. You have a lot more bullets if you can be ahead of the curve on some of these players.

[ November 22, 2008, 02:47 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 9:40 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

The problem with a player like Alexei Rameriz is many people thought he had some talent. He gets hot late in spring training and puts his name on the fantasy map. He plays sporadically in April is supposed to be a bad second baseman. As this season progresses, some teams had to cut him because of other needs or injuries. They were either happy with their middle infield or thought he wasn't strong enough as a 4th/5th outfielder. He get a chance to play everyday for a week in mid May. You could have him for short money if you thought he would get a fair shot to play everyday. The next week he does it again and is price goes up even more. I missed him the second week 101 to 97. It was the difference in winning or losing my league.

Mm, as I recall you only had bad things to say about Alexei before the season started.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:02 pm

I don't know where you would get that. I usually don't talk about the players I like or don't like on these boards before the drafts.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 2:55 pm

Well, your enthusiasm wasn't exactly bubbling here:

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Crazy-

Seeing how you are the expert...Can you please list the second baseman who could possibly hit 20+ homeruns and 30+ steals that got drafted after Weeks?

When I was doing my homework, I didn't see many. I love to see your list in case I might have missed someone. Kelly Johnson

Alexei Ramirez

Before you start arguing, you said 'who could possibly'. Assuming that Weeks will be healthy enough to pull it off or have a passable batting average while doing it are perhaps bigger gambles than betting on the performance of these later picks. [/QUOTE]Alexei Ramirez-It sure looks like he could steal 30 bases.

seasons 6

AB 2115

R 385

H 702

2B 119

3B 21

HR 67

avg .332

obp* .394

slg .503

sb 38

cs 29

bb 216

so 242

def inn 4553.2

po 1154

a 996

e 75

% .966

dp 264

I sure I want to build my team around a 27th round reserve pick who doesn't have a job, but he could hit 20 homeruns and has stole 38 bases in 67 attempts.

As for Kelly Johnson, are going into the draft hoping he turns his 9 steals in 30 this year. You want to talk about over projections. I think last year he wasn't even playing everyday after the all-star break. [/QUOTE]From the "Cueto gets rocked" thread, which seemed to be about every player except Cueto. It was fun to read over that stuff now. All of us were wrong a lot more than we were right! The highlight was the Duke/Dough bet on who would be better, Weeks or Chris Young. The answer, of course, was Who Cares? I hope whoever was holding the money declared each of them the loser and donated it to charity.

Here is the link to the thread: http://nfbcboards.stats.com/cgi-bin/ult ... 000656;p=1

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 3:13 pm

Are you saying I was wrong? I said I thought he could hit 20 HR, but he didn't have the best steal percentage. Wasn't he 13 for 22 in steals which were in line with his 38 for 67 lifetime?

I was obviously wrong about Weeks and it cost me an early draft pick.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 3:37 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Are you saying I was wrong? I said I thought he could hit 20 HR, but he didn't have the best steal percentage. Wasn't he 13 for 22 in steals which were in line with his 38 for 67 lifetime?

I was obviously wrong about Weeks and it cost me an early draft pick. I was just remembering the gist of your comments, which was Weeks=good pick, Alexei=bad pick, which was why I said you only had bad things to say about him. It stuck out in my mind because it was always kind of weird to me that you suggested I built my team around one of my later picks.

The only point I guess I had was that I was surprised to hear you speak highly of him.

Right or wrong doesn't matter so much. Anyone who posted in that thread and can't stand to be wrong should not go back and read it. For example, you and I went on to discuss the attributes of Carl Crawford and Bill Hall respectively.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 6:02 pm

Whew! I went back looking to see what stupid shiit I said and came out, for the most part, clean.

Chris Young and Rickie Weeks did show that neither of them are ready to hit .250 in the near future. Losing his job to Ray Durham says more than enough about Weeks. Interesting play for the Brewers this year. They don't seem to want Weeks, but they are probably thinking about Brandon Phillips as they field trade offers.

Shawn, do you STILL believe Crawford will hit 30 hr's? He'll be 28 next year and still hasn't topped 18. An anomaly, in that he is a speed guy who has gotten hurt above the waist the last two years. I still believe that as his power comes with physique changing due to age, the speed will start to go.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Nov 22, 2008 9:46 pm

Young actually hit .278 in the 2nd half and though I was on your side of the bet, I wouldn't count on him to approximate that again. I'd bet he could top .250, however.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Nov 23, 2008 2:43 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Whew! I went back looking to see what stupid shiit I said and came out, for the most part, clean.

Chris Young and Rickie Weeks did show that neither of them are ready to hit .250 in the near future. Losing his job to Ray Durham says more than enough about Weeks. Interesting play for the Brewers this year. They don't seem to want Weeks, but they are probably thinking about Brandon Phillips as they field trade offers.

Shawn, do you STILL believe Crawford will hit 30 hr's? He'll be 28 next year and still hasn't topped 18. An anomaly, in that he is a speed guy who has gotten hurt above the waist the last two years. I still believe that as his power comes with physique changing due to age, the speed will start to go. Crawford is built pretty solid. He just hasn't figured out how to jack the ball consistedly. He always been a great athlete so I believe he will figure it out one of these year. The wrist thing he had for a couple years has to bother you. I'm still not sure that problem has been corrected. If you want him this year, you have to be a believer that he will put it together.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Nov 23, 2008 3:04 am

As for Weeks, I think his days at second base are numbered. I seem him playing in the outfield.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Nov 23, 2008 4:13 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Young actually hit .278 in the 2nd half and though I was on your side of the bet, I wouldn't count on him to approximate that again. I'd bet he could top .250, however. Yeah, but Vegas would probably put the over-under at .240-.245. They have both proven that they have big holes in their swings.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Nov 23, 2008 4:25 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

As for Weeks, I think his days at second base are numbered. I seem him playing in the outfield. For what team?

The Brewers management hasn't helped him much. They have force-fed Weeks the leadoff spot, hoping for a Soriano type of performance. The difference being that Soriano can hit balls out of the zone with power. Maybe trying to get him better pitches and dropping him down between Prince and Hart should be tried before they put him on the block.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Nov 23, 2008 4:38 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Whew! I went back looking to see what stupid shiit I said and came out, for the most part, clean.

Chris Young and Rickie Weeks did show that neither of them are ready to hit .250 in the near future. Losing his job to Ray Durham says more than enough about Weeks. Interesting play for the Brewers this year. They don't seem to want Weeks, but they are probably thinking about Brandon Phillips as they field trade offers.

Shawn, do you STILL believe Crawford will hit 30 hr's? He'll be 28 next year and still hasn't topped 18. An anomaly, in that he is a speed guy who has gotten hurt above the waist the last two years. I still believe that as his power comes with physique changing due to age, the speed will start to go. Crawford is built pretty solid. He just hasn't figured out how to jack the ball consistedly. He always been a great athlete so I believe he will figure it out one of these year. The wrist thing he had for a couple years has to bother you. I'm still not sure that problem has been corrected. If you want him this year, you have to be a believer that he will put it together. [/QUOTE]Crawford is built for home runs. His swing is not. The swing is usually level with not much uppercut at all. Great for a .300 average, not great for home runs.

Maybe Brian or Todd can point us to a website that matches up a hitters trajectory of bat swing with certain pitches and maybe the recorded mph of each swing. That would be some interesting stuff.

Spartacus · Post by **Spartacus** » Sun Nov 23, 2008 4:50 am

This is going to be Week's year! At least from the standpoint that his ADP will probably (and finally) align with his fantasy contributions. I figure he'll drop to the 10-15 rd zone depending on where he lands and whether he has a full time gig. He's streaky, has a big hole in his swing, but still has the potential to be a value pick for our purposes. Whether he ever becomes a star seems questionable at this point, a change of setting would do him and us a world of good. Priced right I'd buy.

According to the ADP of our 3 mock drafts Crawford is now a 2nd rounder. The only knock on him, with all due respect to those who owned him last year, is that he's never become the Ricky Henderson clone we thought he'd become. Perhaps he never will and maybe the last two sub 600 AB seasons are early warning signs of a physical breakdown, but the upside is still worth the risk. I remember reading an interview with him once and came away with the impression that he was a no nonsense student of the game. No drama-no sideshows, you have to love the intangibles when establishing the core of your fantasy team.

Hope I'm positioned well in the 2nd round on JANUARY 6TH.........yeeehaaaaa!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Nov 23, 2008 5:30 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

As for Weeks, I think his days at second base are numbered. I seem him playing in the outfield. For what team?

The Brewers management hasn't helped him much. They have force-fed Weeks the leadoff spot, hoping for a Soriano type of performance. The difference being that Soriano can hit balls out of the zone with power. Maybe trying to get him better pitches and dropping him down between Prince and Hart should be tried before they put him on the block. [/QUOTE]The Gateway Grizzlies of the Frontier League.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Sun Nov 23, 2008 5:41 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

As for Weeks, I think his days at second base are numbered. I seem him playing in the outfield. For what team?

The Brewers management hasn't helped him much. They have force-fed Weeks the leadoff spot, hoping for a Soriano type of performance. The difference being that Soriano can hit balls out of the zone with power. Maybe trying to get him better pitches and dropping him down between Prince and Hart should be tried before they put him on the block. [/QUOTE]I think he pulls a Ron Gant in the future. OF for another organization to give him a fresh outlook and to calm him down.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Nov 23, 2008 6:37 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Whew! I went back looking to see what stupid shiit I said and came out, for the most part, clean.

Chris Young and Rickie Weeks did show that neither of them are ready to hit .250 in the near future. Losing his job to Ray Durham says more than enough about Weeks. Interesting play for the Brewers this year. They don't seem to want Weeks, but they are probably thinking about Brandon Phillips as they field trade offers.

Shawn, do you STILL believe Crawford will hit 30 hr's? He'll be 28 next year and still hasn't topped 18. An anomaly, in that he is a speed guy who has gotten hurt above the waist the last two years. I still believe that as his power comes with physique changing due to age, the speed will start to go. Crawford is built pretty solid. He just hasn't figured out how to jack the ball consistedly. He always been a great athlete so I believe he will figure it out one of these year. The wrist thing he had for a couple years has to bother you. I'm still not sure that problem has been corrected. If you want him this year, you have to be a believer that he will put it together. [/QUOTE]Crawford is built for home runs. His swing is not. The swing is usually level with not much uppercut at all. Great for a .300 average, not great for home runs.

Maybe Brian or Todd can point us to a website that matches up a hitters trajectory of bat swing with certain pitches and maybe the recorded mph of each swing. That would be some interesting stuff. [/QUOTE]Trajectory of swing. Wow. The only place that I'd think might even have something like that would be pitch f/x, but I don't know the first thing about pitch f/x, starting with how to access it.

I am making an effort to rebuild hit tracker on my own computer, however, so I can actually sort through it.

--I wonder what went on during the inception of that site. "Hey, lets spend mountains of time and money finding out weather patterns and speeds of balls and the distance they went and should have gone and then not offer any sort or search options so that it is virtually useless for anyone who might have gotten something out of the site!" "Awesome!"--

Yeah, so anyway, the average distance homers travelled last year was 396 feet and Crawford's 8 homers travelled a mean of 398 feet. The average speed off bat for homers was 106.1 mph and Crawford's 8 homeruns were 106.6.

Clearly, the important number here is the one you already knew: 8. Pretend for a minute there was no hit tracker or scouting or body size or anything else and just look at his homerun totals. In 7 tries he has not displayed any ability to hit for serious power. Moreover, his power has gone down over the last three seasons. And now that he's had his age 26 season, I think we can quit saying, "Yeah, but wait until his prime." He might have a bounce-back year next year and you'll get the average and the speed, but this is who he is: a 10-20 homerun guy. If you're looking for things that aren't there, you'll be disappointed for the fifth or sixth time in a row, but hey, there's always next year.

[ November 23, 2008, 01:17 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]