Arizona Fall League Update

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Nov 07, 2005 3:06 am

I've spent the last four days in Arizona at Ron Shandler's Arizona Fall League Symposium, which is a great jumpstart to the upcoming season. Three days of ballgames (two a day), seminar panels and scouting reports has me juiced for baseball. There were a lot of hitting prospects at this year's AFL and some bad pitching as the cumulative ERA is over 6.00, the highest ever in the AFL's 11 years.

I'll provide an update on some of the prospects I saw down here once I get back in the office. There are some dandies here and many of these guys will be on MLB rosters at some point this season. Brandon Wood, Stephen Drew and Lastings Milledge come to mind, but there are others.

Time to head back to Wisconsin. Bummer!!

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 09, 2005 10:54 am

The No. 1 prospect in the Arizona Fall League is unquestionably Brandon Wood of the Anaheim Angels. Wood was a first round pick (23rd overall) in 2003 who made a huge jump in value this year. During a full season at Class A Rancho Cucamonga, the 6'2", 180-pounder hit .321 with 43 home runs, 115 RBIs, 7 stolen bases and 110 runs. He had a .377 on-base percentage and a 1.049 OPS. The 20-year-old then was promoted to Triple-A Salt Lake for four games, where he hit .316-0-1. Now playing in the AFL, Wood looks a bit tired from the long season, but he still leads the league in homers with 13 (including one four-HR game) and RBIs with 31. He's also hitting .300 through the first 28 games with a .371 on-base percentage.

Wood is playing shortstop in the AFL, although the Angels believe he's best suited for third base. There was talk at the AFL Symposium that the Angels are intent on starting the 2006 season with Wood at either third base or shortstop, but that would be a huge jump. Still, when you look at this guy you see a major-league body and a tough, tough competitor. Don't be surprised if he impresses the Angels this spring and is a key contributor at some point early in the 2006 season.

More updates coming soon.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 10, 2005 9:41 am

Most scouts agree that Stephen Drew is the shortstop of the future in Arizona, but that future might not be on Opening Day of 2006. Drew, the younger brother of J.D., was a first round pick (15th overall) in 2004 out of Florida State University and he had a breakout pro debut in 2005, hitting .389-10-39-1 in 38 games at Class A Lancaster. He was then promoted to Double-A Tennessee, where he struggled to hit .218-4-13-2 in 27 games. Drew said he got tired last year and is confident he can make the jump to the majors as early as this year. He's definitely a confident player, although some teammates consider him a little too arrogant and hard-headed. No question he likes to pull the ball on every pitch and he has holes in his swing and appears to need more seasoning defensively in the minors. In the AFL, he's hit .337-6-17-1 in 23 games with a .439 on-base percentage.

He has the potential to be a future All-Star with a solid bat and the Diamondbacks will give him a long look this spring at shortstop. But I would suspect that Drew will start the year in the minors, maybe even at Double-A before earning a mid-season promotion to the majors. He is definitely the shortstop of the future in Arizona and one of the top prospects in the AFL, but that star likely won't shine right away in 2006.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 10:50 am

The Mets produced a lot of young superstars out of their farm system during the 1980s, but the cupboard has been a bit bare recently. The next great prospect appears to be Lastings Milledge, a 20-year-old left-fielder who was a first-round pick in 2003 (12th overall) from Lakewood, Florida. Milledge had a solid 2005 campaign, hitting .302-4-22 with 18 stolen bases in 62 games at Class A St. Lucie before hitting .337-4-24-11 at Double-A Binghamton. At 6'1", 180 he has a stocky build, but his speed and strong arm are deceiving. In the AFL through the first 24 games, he was hitting .330-5-23-7 with a .402 on-base percentage. He went 4-for-5 in one game I saw him play and easily was the best player on the field. I doubt that the Mets will rush him to the majors in 2006 and he could even start the year at Double-A before rising to Triple-A. But by 2007, he could be a starter in the Mets' outfield and remain a fixture there for many years to come. He's definitely a star on the rise and a name that fantasy-leaguers should keep in mind if they compete in keeper leagues.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 11:16 am

Greg, It seems like a lot of hitters do well in Arizona. Is the pitching really watered down? Thanks Shawn

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 12:59 pm

The pitching (and defense) is quite subpar in the AFL. They are about to set an all-time high for batting average and ERA. Even the decent pitchers only go 4-5 innings, and the bullpens are horrid. They were supposed to address the discrepancy this year, but obviously failed.

The parks themselves are pretty big, going 350 down each line and over 400 to straightaway center. Most of the parks have a big wall in dead center (to improve the hitting background) so the HRs are not cheap in that regard. The umps are AAA and the parks are equipped with Questec so that isn't a factor. Basically, most of these guys can hit straight pitch very good.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Dec 01, 2005 10:53 am

The final numbers showed that the league composite ERA was 5.40 this year and that 27 players with at least 2.7 plate appearances per game hit .300 or higher. Three of the AFL's six teams hit over .300. Kevin Howard of the Reds led the league with a .409 average and Brandon Wood set a new AFL record with 14 home runs and led the league with 32 RBIs.

That should tell you a bit about the AFL this year, but it sure was fun to watch some of those hitters. I'll give some more AFL updates soon (sorry for the break).