Penny-wise?

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:21 am

Leaving aside the obligatory Little Penny jokes from the Anfernee Hardaway era, the Sox signing of Penny is quite interesting...and in Mock Draft 3 he was taken in the 20th rd immediately upon the announcement of the contract. Which raises the question as to his fantasy value and whether or not it was a good signing.

To start out all benefit of the doubt goes to the Sox management on this since they have proven success by every measurable standard. In fact had THeo been GM in 1986, Buckner undoubtedly fields Mookie's grounder flawlessly and deprives the Schwks of their favorite sports memory.

For a few years Penny was a youngster who could not harness his stuff. He then became an injury-prone starter, who routinely fell apart in the second half of years. In 2007 he kind of put it together and had the year everyone had been predicting...only to once again get injured in 08.

Penny throws very hard and puts a lot of effort into each pitch. THough his fastball is in the mid 90's, he doesnt get many k's, which leads me to believe that the pitch is a bit straight and that his secondary pitches are not great out pitches.

While the FA market might be slowed, the market for SPs has not seemingly taken a hit. THis leaves me as curious as to why LAD would buy him out at 2 mill rather then pay him 8. For 6 million, basically they could have had him back. 6 mill in this market buys a 4th-5th starter at best (Lohse off the scrap heap at 10 per, D Cabrera at 2.5 so somewhere in that range)

At his very best Penny has proven he can be a low end #2. In a market where #2 sps are going for quite a bit more (AJ Burnett 17, Lowe will get 15 per) the Sox signing of Penny seems good at 5 million especially given that they need him as a 4 or 5 AND have other options if he fails Masterson, Buch, Bowden

I do not like Penny and do not think he is a guy you want on the mound with a pennant ont he line. I also do not like him in Fantasy especially going to the AL and the AL EAST! His bad strikeouts will only get worse as will his whip and era. IMO 20th round is about where he should be going, if not a bit lower.

All of that said, I think it was a shrewd signing by the SOx.. a low risk move that could prove respectable dividends.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:43 am

I agree with everything in the post. A smart signing to get a live, veteran arm for $5m. I am not saying I will draft him after being burned last year and in that division, but from a real baseball perspective, it makes sense. It gives the BoSox options to handle their rotation and the ability to break in their youngsters.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:06 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I agree with everything in the post. A smart signing to get a live, veteran arm for $5m. I am not saying I will draft him after being burned last year and in that division, but from a real baseball perspective, it makes sense. It gives the BoSox options to handle their rotation and the ability to break in their youngsters. LIVE?

Really Wayne??

As Schwks pointed out the Dodgers could have taken the risk for a cheaper price and DIDN'T....I am not convinced that the shoulder problems are gone.

The only thing I can see that Theo did with this is delay the start of Buchholz in the rotation and I don't consider that a good thing.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:33 am

the fact that the dodgers did not go after him means; for me, he will be good this year. the nl west has 2 teams with really dumb front offices in the dodgers and padres, and 2 teams not really trying to win in the rockies and diamondbacks. it won't be long before the giants are back. the dodgers didn't sign a guy for 5 million that might not play baseball because they have 60 million wrapped up in 2 outfielders that can't play baseball. the dodgers and diamondbacks have the "you can't have enough outfielders" mentality while the red sox and now the yakees are following billy beans mentality and saying "you can't have enough pitchers". i will side with the latter.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:45 am

Durham, Zito, Vizquel, Rowand, and Renteria? Really? I put the Giants front office right there with the Padres.

I was disappointed with the Penny signing. I have no idea whether it'll work out for the BoSox or not. But, I do think with Penny's arm problems and the closer openings that are still open, that this would have been the perfect time for him to try his hand at closing games.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:49 am

What speaks to me is that Penny has a history of very high avg against. In 06 where he was 13-9 with a 4+ era, his avg against was .280. In 07, he was lights out in Apr and May with AVG in low 200's and then they rose month by month into the 300s by Aug and Sept. Last year the avg was terrible, but maybe he was hurt from Day 1.

In the AL, this avg will go up necessarily because 1/9th of the lineup will by definition be tougher outs. Further, he will not get the relief of the easy out with the runners he allows and then cant strikeout.

With the Sox offense and their winning-breeds- winning atmosphere, I can see Penny winning 12-14 games if healthy, but with an era in mid-upper 4s , whip in 1.5 range and strikeouts hovering around 100 (3-4 per game) For those numbers. Id leave him undrafted.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:53 am

Was just reading the last few contributions to this and had a thought which has two sides:

1) The Red Sox tried to acquire Jarrod Saltalamacchia from the Rangers....Rangers said "it will cost you Buchholz" and the talks ended

2)IF they were that set on keeping Buchholz, why not start him as opposed to retarding his development by signing a suspect SP like Penny (that was the thought I was going to post)....BUT

3) What if by signing Penny they think they have the rotation spot filled and would now be okay with trading Buchholz............hmmmmmm

[ December 29, 2008, 10:54 AM: Message edited by: Captain Hook ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:11 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I agree with everything in the post. A smart signing to get a live, veteran arm for $5m. I am not saying I will draft him after being burned last year and in that division, but from a real baseball perspective, it makes sense. It gives the BoSox options to handle their rotation and the ability to break in their youngsters. LIVE?

Really Wayne??

As Schwks pointed out the Dodgers could have taken the risk for a cheaper price and DIDN'T....I am not convinced that the shoulder problems are gone.

The only thing I can see that Theo did with this is delay the start of Buchholz in the rotation and I don't consider that a good thing. [/QUOTE]Not Live for the 2008 version, I grant you, but he has shown, WHEN HEALTHY, that he has 140-150 K ability, good control (2:1 to 3:1 K to BB ratio), and he is only 30. I think there is life in that arm and the $5m price tag puts him in bargain territory for SP.

Health is his biggest issue, of course, but as far as gambles go, it is not the worst one I have seen taken.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:14 am

yes dough- even with those guys- because it won't take much. can you argue what i said about the other 4 teams? zito was an awfull signing and they might continue- but the giants are like the cubs- an average gm with $, in a division with teams with no $, dumb gm's or both. we shall see. big if on lincy staying healthy- but they might be only a year away. i will say 2010 earliest and 2012 at latest. just not much competition.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:28 am

I dont know are the Dodger that dumb? Andruw was ludicrous, I agree. Pierre was excessive $ for a spot they didnt really need, but he has essentially done what he was signed to do.

I think that their late season moves of getting Manny for basically prospects who had already failed (LaROche) and Blake were very good. Their system continues to turn out good players: Billingsley, Kershaw, McDonald, Broxton, Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin and the kid who played 2d and 3rd for them last yr (as I write this I am wondering what other org has produced and kept as much depth and quality players) They also make good foreign signings like Kuo and Saito.

When you have such a large % of your team formed by your own talent, you can afford some expensive free agents and free agent mistakes. Andruw was just flat out weird and inexplicable, but I think that they will be back in it. The Dodgers are not a bad or stupid org and with their rotation needs, I wonder about Penny

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:28 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

yes dough- even with those guys- because it won't take much. can you argue what i said about the other 4 teams? zito was an awfull signing and they might continue- but the giants are like the cubs- an average gm with $, in a division with teams with no $, dumb gm's or both. we shall see. big if on lincy staying healthy- but they might be only a year away. i will say 2010 earliest and 2012 at latest. just not much competition. I do not believe in timetables with baseball.

Too many things change. Arizona and Colorado could be flush next year, the Dodgers could hit on a good signing, and the Padres, ok, the Padres are praying at the alter, but to say any team will be better in 2010 and beyond is just wishing on a star.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:49 am

ok- i will say what i said in the 1st place- they will be better this year, and the other 4 teams really aren't trying.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 6:00 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

ok- i will say what i said in the 1st place- they will be better this year, and the other 4 teams really aren't trying. ...and you are still DEAD wrong about that

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 6:14 am

well we shall see. it is all pre season speculation now.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 6:34 am

schwks- let me rephrase this- the dodgers got dumb with colletti. he started in 06. manny was a great move. i think he drafted kershaw. but-martin, broxton, billingsly, either, kemp, loney were all there when he got there- with the "new dodgers". seems to me- looking at the above list the "old dodgers" were doing the right thing.

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:42 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Durham, Zito, Vizquel, Rowand, and Renteria? Really? I put the Giants front office right there with the Padres.

I was disappointed with the Penny signing. I have no idea whether it'll work out for the BoSox or not. But, I do think with Penny's arm problems and the closer openings that are still open, that this would have been the perfect time for him to try his hand at closing games. Well, it wasn't too long ago that we were all discussing Papelbon as a starter. Perhaps there is more here than meets the eye, though I doubt it.

John