The Economy, Baseball, and Stuff

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 2:55 am

Signings have been slow this off season.

Scott Boras being the agent for all the top free agents and the economy have combined to extend the signing season into the new year and probably February.

While the Sabathia's and Teixeira's of the world can afford the wait, the less sought after free agents can't. The Brian Fuentes signing of 17.5 million for two years should ignite action around bargaining tables.

Andy Pettitte, you are not getting your 16 million, settle for the 10. Derek Lowe will not get his expected 15-16 million over four years. Ryan Dempster is a winner by locking in early at four years for 52 million.

Fuentes signing had me looking up last years signings to a comparable pitcher. Francisco Cordero signed a four year contract for 46 million dollars.

The Fuentes signing is an absolute steal for the Angels, and a wake up call for Milton Bradley, Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn, and Lowe.

Last off season, the Mariners in preparing for a losing season, made a bad situation worse by signing Carlos Silva for 48 million over four years. This year, better pitchers such as Pettitte and Lowe will get the same or less.

A couple of notes-

Chris Davis minor league nickname was "Crush". A play on words from the Crash Davis charachter in Bull Durham.

And this, Ron Shandler has Joba Chamberlain ranked as the number one pitcher in fantasy baseball. Somehow, I can see, in a Zolaesque type of scenario, how Chamberlain can be ranked number one. But the overriding common sense side of my brain screams, "No way!"

There are just too many questions regarding his stamina and his role to even let him sniff the top of my sheet.

Maybe Todd or Ron can give us some thoughts on why he would be the #1 fantasy pitcher in baseball.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:38 am

I think I will defer the specifics to Ron, it is his projection.

But if you just look at last season, you see a supreme skill set.

K/9 = 10.6

BB/9 = 3.5

HR/9 = .45

Let's take role and injury risk out of it for a second, but those are obviously factors we all have to individually season to taste. For now, lets just think about his likelihood of throwing 200 or so innings at a level similar to how he threw 100 innings last season.

Right off the bat, if you simply believe he is capable of maintaining those rates over a full season of 34 starts at 6+ IP per game, discussion over, and an argument can be made that is the case.

Others may contend he is not as likely to whiff as many over a full season. And maybe they are right. But what if hand in hand with the drop in strikeouts is a decrease in walks, as there is some room for play in that 3.5 per 9?

Of course, seeing an order three times and some AL East teams 4-6 times may breed familiarity and his walks may INCREASE.

Something not mentioned yet is his 2008 BABIP, which was a rather unlucky .332, the misfortune further amplified since his LD% was a paltry 14.2. What this means is if his BABIP regresses to the norm or heaven forbid was "lucky" and he maintained the above skills, his numbers will be EVEN BETTER.

Ultimately, it will probably come down to his HR/9. Can he maintain a mark near .5 per 9 over the course of a full season? His GB/FB rate supports a favorable HR-rate so the .45 is not all "luck".

Reading between the lines, you can probably sense I am also high on Joba, at least in terms of skills. I honestly have not made a personal assessment with respect to his role or skill level given that number of innings. With the proverbial "Small Sample Size" disclaimer, though any conclusion drawn with respect to Joba is based on a limited sample, it is true his K/9 when he started last season was a tick below that of when he relieved as it was 9.8 as a starter (not counting the first 2 games he started before he was fully stretched out).

BUT the REAL key is how to use this information to your advantage. If you project him for $25 or 3rd round value, you do not HAVE to pay that much or take him there, unless of course you really want him and everyone else in the room is toting a Forecaster. If everyone else is only willing to pay 17 max, sold to you at 18, enjoy your 7 buck profit. If his ADP is 6th or 7th round, take him in 4th or 5th and not 2nd or 3rd.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:56 am

Left side, right side debate.

I like Joba as much as the next guy. If the Yankees used him well, I think they can be World Series winners this year.

I marvel at the numbers usage, but I can't dismiss his stamina and role. Even taking those aside (only for a minute), is Joba really going to be better than Lincecum, who has already delivered on a season in which you and Ron hope for Joba?

It is called "The Forecaster" and I can see Joba attaining all the necessary numbers for a season like that. But there is too much in me that believes that rather than forecasting, that, it is reaching.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:02 am

Dan....if Joba pitches the "forecasted" 198 innings, do you think the projection is out of line?

IF he was in the rotation, he wouldn't be facing the opposing teams best starter (maybe not even second best) AND he has a big plus at 1B.....true the outfield defense may be terrible but that's what the strikeouts are for....that projection only has him winning 12 games.............Sir Sidney would win more than 12 games with that team behind him....

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:08 am

198 innings.33 starts with an average of six innings per start.I do not see that happening.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:20 am

It's the word "if", I have a problem with, Perry.

There is no doubt in my mind that Joba can put up those numbers. And I understand that Ron has to make his forecasts right after the last season, which really hamstrings him. But he is a player that you have to look at beyond the numbers and the skill set to his situation in New York.

The Yankees could sign another starter on the cheap, have Pettitte come back and they will be forced to send Joba to the pen.

The risk/reward may be worth it to others. The skill set is definetly there. There are just too many factors outside of those skill sets that will have me on the sidelines.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:26 am

As I hinted, I am also high on Chamberlain, but let's just say if Ron and I get into a bidding war over him and he sticks to his published value -- he'll get him

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:02 am

BTW in the "current" (ie updated) projections, HQ has Joba down to 174 IP and thus #10 in mixed league value for pitchers

Feel better Dan?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:32 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

BTW in the "current" (ie updated) projections, HQ has Joba down to 174 IP and thus #10 in mixed league value for pitchers

Feel better Dan? Better, not all the way on board with that, but yes, better.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:45 am

BTW in the "current" (ie updated) projections, HQ has Joba down to 174 IP and thus #10 in mixed league value for pitchers He'll still outbid me

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:56 am

When you tell people that Shandler [forecaster] has Joba the number one fantasy pitcher in the book do you think that will help sales.I know one friend who heard this and isnt buying the book this year,im not kidding.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 7:32 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

When you tell people that Shandler [forecaster] has Joba the number one fantasy pitcher in the book do you think that will help sales.I know one friend who heard this and isnt buying the book this year,im not kidding. Good Eddie - tell him to sign up for some NFBC leagues with his yahoo cheatsheet

I see lots of examples of people misusing the Forecaster....and as referenced above the "current" HQ projection has Joba down to 174 IP and ranked 10th on projected earnings for pitchers......and that will surely change in the weeks, months to come.

[ January 01, 2009, 01:33 PM: Message edited by: Captain Hook ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 7:50 am

What changed since it went to press a couple weeks ago to alter his projection so?

~Lance

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 7:58 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

What changed since it went to press a couple weeks ago to alter his projection so?

~Lance Lance....you mean besides signing Sabathia and Burnett?

...and all their projections done in November (to get the book out in December) are refined and updated constantly until the start of the season as player movement, thus playing time, lineups and projected AB continue to evolve.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 9:00 am

Based purely on skills and not accounting for the BABIP spike young pitchers often see, Euclid had him ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher before last season, leading me to waste a satellite pick on him. I don't have his projection for this year yet, but I have a lot of concerns with him.

He had a 1.4 GB/FB as a starter last year. That is good and I think his dominance will also help him limit homeruns, but he is not going to have a Brandon Webb-like homerun rate--no way. Euclid tells me his season long groundball rate, which was even better, is still only worth .9 HR/9. I'll probably project him at .8 all things considered.

He has yet to pitch over 120 innings in a season. Will the yankees be willing to push him past 150 and if they do, will he have the stamina to keep his numbers up?

He is 23. This, historically, is not a good age for a pitcher to be if he doesn't want to get injured, particularly if he is logging a lot of innings.

The Yankees are playing the field behind him.

I still think he should be a starter.

Spartacus · Post by **Spartacus** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 9:14 am

My first exposure to the Forecaster was as a stocking stuffer in the NFBC's goody bags that they distribute at their live events. My initial impression was that it was more information than I needed and I expected that I'd have as much trouble learning 'Shandlish' as I did Spanish back in 8th grade. However, I suppose being bored by the paucity of off season information, I went out and signed up for his website and bought the Forecaster. I've pretty much read the whole thing and a a result deveoped a new found respect for what he's doing. Within the bits and bytes of information he presents real 3 dimensional pictures of player skills and shortcomings emerge. For me it's had the effect of ending a few relationships as well as starting a few new courtships

I'm familiar with the Joba as #1 (I think it was on the Position Scarcity Chart) that turned Eddie's friend off. I saw it and thought: "not relevant to the game I play.....next page." That being said, I'd still recommend the Forecaster because there's more to like than not. And once you learn how to translate Shandlish into English..............................

Hey Eddie-Looking forward to Tuesday night. But where's are Draft Order? I'm ch-ch-chomping at the bit!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 9:16 am

Other pitchers who will see their HR/9 heavily regress:

Tim Lincecum

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 9:20 am

I have previously expressed my opinions on Joba. But in my previous posting, I identified 2 risk factors for starting pitchers to fulfill their 4 fantasy categories: 1)ineffectiveness caused by many factors 2)injury. Two categories which I would now add are a)team let down (the latter could be construed to apply to wins only...but I think that often when a team falls apart, it affects evryone's individual performances as well)and b)team assigned role.

I think that Joba's odds for 1 & 2 go up in that his inning totals were in the 100 range last year, AND suffered a wear-related injury. Those same 100 innigs and the injury also contribute to (b) because the Yanks will be tempted to restrict his innings due to injury risk and the current thinking of adding only 30 innings per year. Obviously Joba does appear to have a great offense, ok defense and a good pen.

Finally Joba has been truly dominant as a set up mn and the Yanks going back to Rivera/Wetteland, have always loved ending the game in the 7th inning. SO it is easy to see them opting to go that route especially if Hughes comes on and Pettite re-signs.

I will gladly let someone else take him in rds 1 through 8 and then jump on the value in 9th. In this case, Shandler's numbers are largely irrelevent because there ar non-numerical factors in play. Starting pitchers are risky picks by nature. Joba coomes with 30% more then most.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 9:38 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

I will gladly let someone else take him in rds 1 through 8 and then jump on the value in 9th. so in the 8th you don't like him, but he's value in the 9th???

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 10:27 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Schwks:

I will gladly let someone else take him in rds 1 through 8 and then jump on the value in 9th. so in the 8th you don't like him, but he's value in the 9th??? [/QUOTE]Why not? He has to become a value at some point and 9 sounds good to me.

You know, it occurred to me that most of the discussion on him, including my own, has focused on what kind of ERA his results will lead to, but reflecting on last year, I had him 3rd not because of some amazing ERA--I had him at 3.53--but because his estimated strikeouts and wins were very high. That will not change. Even if his ERA is 4, in 35 starts the Yankees would get him plenty of wins and he'd manage to rack up quite a few K's. But those things are completely contingent on him racking up 35 starts, which I have no confidence in his ability to do.

I was mentioning to someone lately that it is sometimes tough to turn down the value of pitchers who have the skills to be some of the best in the game, but when you have different versions of Burke Badenhop filling in for them half the year, you can realize that it is sometimes better to shoot for the reliable guy who isn't quite so special.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 10:31 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Why not? He has to become a value at some point and 9 sounds good to me.

if you don't like joba in the 8th (and will be GLAD if someone else takes him there), but consider joba value in the 9th, i think something is wrong.

i crapper in the 8th is a crapper with a bow tie in the 9th.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 11:13 am

I think you are dissecting his sentence a bit too much. He is just saying that he's not interested in him until the ninth.

Gekko, so far your video has better production than the MLB channel. Nah, the channel is way better than mlb.com's videos at least. The highlight so far was the Bud Selig intro. Thank god I tuned in at 3:00 instead of 3:01 like they advertised. To think I might have missed that.

I don't think they need the ump ump ump music playing behind every single cut-away. It is super annoying.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 11:53 am

Spartacus cant wait till tuesday.I like the format in the Childs league where 3 teams win free leagues.

You had one hell of a year last year only Jeff Dobies might have done better.This kick's off the fantasy baseball season.

Captain the gentleman who will not purchase the Forecaster this year [because of the Joba the hut joke]is in the NFBC top ten lifetime.I too get the Forecaster and enjoy a lot of it but seeing Joba in the first round make's me shake my head.I realize it's fantasy but really .It takes away from his mock draft and reminds me of one of the experts leagues that had Irod in the 2nd round last year and other picks that would never happen in a NFBC Draft.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:56 pm

Eddie, I will respect your friend and esteemed colleague, but that reason is full of S*** - if he disagrees with it he should be glad that others may take it as gospel...anyone who buys or uses that book (or any other) and uses it for just one thing is kidding themselves...in fact one of it's biggest values is knowing how the Shandlerites will think about certain players.

Anyone who uses their auction values (random and not relevant to ANY league) or rotisserie snake draft list (merely descending list of players based on early values) is just looking for someone to do their homework for them....and will not get good results.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:12 pm

Just to sum up the good Captain's posts for today for anyone who is catching up...

The Shandler book is great and anyone who criticizes it does not know what they are talking about.

Reason 1: The innings pitched, strikeouts, wins, and at bats are all incorrect.

Reason 2: The snake draft is completely wrong.

Reason 3: The auction values are useless.

I'm sold!