The Economy, Baseball, and Stuff

[Captain Hook]

Okay Brian, so comprehension is not your strong suit

[bjoak]

I know that you don't even have three consecutive hours free to have a draft in a given month, so you certainly don't have time to go back through your posts, but I could pluck for you the spots where you said all those things. Not going to, but I could.

[Edwards Kings]

I am hoping the NYY in their infinite wisdom come out with Joba in the bullpen. His Baseball HQ value is predicated on him starting. Not starting in spring and you have a real chance at grabbing his kind of skill set 11th, 12th or later.



By the end of the year, Joba will be starting as either AJ gets hurt (big surprise), CC pulls a hammy running the bases in a NL/AL game, Petite gets hurt, or all the above. He will get his chance next year, but I hope he starts out in the bullpen so I can grab him, toss him in my rotation as my 9th man, and reap the rewards when they start starting him.



A boy has got to have dreams....

[Schwks]

if you don't like joba in the 8th (and will be GLAD if someone else takes him there), but consider joba value in the 9th, i think something is wrong.



i crapper in the 8th is a crapper with a bow tie in the 9th.



My point was that if someone takes him in rounds 1-8, they are leaving me an extra guy that Id rather have in those rounds. I think that in the rounds 9-13 when quality(but not the top tiered studs) starting pitchers seem to go, Joba fits somewhere in those rounds as decent value....taking into account the added risk of injury, innings watching, Yank's choosing to use him in BP either part or all year, gnats, DWIs and other sorted misdemeanors.

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by bjoak:

Just to sum up the good Captain's posts for today for anyone who is catching up...



The Shandler book is great and anyone who criticizes it does not know what they are talking about.



Reason 1: The innings pitched, strikeouts, wins, and at bats are all incorrect.



Reason 2: The snake draft is completely wrong.



Reason 3: The auction values are useless.



I'm sold! Ha! Good summary, Brian!



Reason 4: This is all a bunch of numbers, but to know what we REALY think...subscribe to our website...rendering the $20 you spent here for this outdated book worthless.



Reason 5: This book is not for NFBC main event players. Neither are our seminars. They are both for ALL sorts of fantasy baseball leagues...mainly the outdated, auction and local leagues.



I like the split stats, game log, situational stats, and batter vs. pitcher breakdown yahoo offers on each player, and will try that out this year.



~Lance

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

What changed since it went to press a couple weeks ago to alter his projection so?



~Lance Lance....you mean besides signing Sabathia and Burnett?



[/QUOTE]If all things remained equal...wouldn't signing AJ and CC IMPROVE the odds Joba gets even MORE wins vs. inferior opposing pitchers, and his other stats stay the same?



~Lance

[bjoak]

I don't buy that too much Lance. Even in his first start with off days and such he could already be matched up against another teams #1. By a few weeks into the season, it is so mixed up that it makes no difference.

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by bjoak:

I don't buy that too much Lance. Even in his first start with off days and such he could already be matched up against another teams #1. By a few weeks into the season, it is so mixed up that it makes no difference. I hear that argument every year...but throughout the season it seems like they re-shuffle, and it's back to ACE WARFARE.



I haven't tracked it...but damn if it doesn't seem to workout that way more often than not.



You don't see CC or Johan facing a teams #4 or #5 SP all too often. (or do you?)



~Lance



[ January 14, 2009, 11:36 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

You don't see CC or Johan facing a teams #4 or #5 SP all too often. (or do you?)Let's do Santana, as CC switched leagues mid-season:



1. 3/31/08 @FLA - Hendrickson (#1)

2. 4/6/08 @ATL - Smoltz (#1)

3. 4/12/08 MIL - Sheets (#1)

4. 4/18/08 PHI - Hamels (#1)

5. 4/23/08 @WAS - Redding (#3)

6. 4/29/08 PIT - Snell (#1)

7. 5/4/08 @ARI - Haren (#2)

8. 5/10/08 CIN - Belisle (#5)

9. 5/17/08 @NYY - Pettitte (#3)

10. 5/22/08 @ATL - Hudson (#2)

11. 5/27/08 FLA - Miller (#3)

12. 6/1/08 LAD - Kuroda (#4)

13. 6/6/08 @SD - Wolf (#4)

14. 6/12/08 ARI - Haren (#2)

15. 6/17/08 @LAA - Lackey (#1)

16. 6/23/08 SEA - Hernandez (#1)

17. 6/28/08 NYY - Pettitte (#3)

18. 7/4/08 @PHI - Happ (#5)

19. 7/9/08 SFG - Sanchez (#4)



I stopped at the All-Star Break because it's pretty obvious what's happening here. Early in the season, the #1 pitchers face each other quite a bit. As you get away from Opening Day (and the All-Star Break), the likelihood of #1's facing each other decreases substantially.

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

You don't see CC or Johan facing a teams #4 or #5 SP all too often. (or do you?)Let's do Santana, as CC switched leagues mid-season:



1. 3/31/08 @FLA - Hendrickson (#1)

2. 4/6/08 @ATL - Smoltz (#1)

3. 4/12/08 MIL - Sheets (#1)

4. 4/18/08 PHI - Hamels (#1)

5. 4/23/08 @WAS - Redding (#3)

6. 4/29/08 PIT - Snell (#1)

7. 5/4/08 @ARI - Haren (#2)

8. 5/10/08 CIN - Belisle (#5)

9. 5/17/08 @NYY - Pettitte (#3)

10. 5/22/08 @ATL - Hudson (#2)

11. 5/27/08 FLA - Miller (#3)

12. 6/1/08 LAD - Kuroda (#4)

13. 6/6/08 @SD - Wolf (#4)

14. 6/12/08 ARI - Haren (#2)

15. 6/17/08 @LAA - Lackey (#1)

16. 6/23/08 SEA - Hernandez (#1)

17. 6/28/08 NYY - Pettitte (#3)

18. 7/4/08 @PHI - Happ (#5)

19. 7/9/08 SFG - Sanchez (#4)



I stopped at the All-Star Break because it's pretty obvious what's happening here. Early in the season, the #1 pitchers face each other quite a bit. As you get away from Opening Day (and the All-Star Break), the likelihood of #1's facing each other decreases substantially. [/QUOTE]Thanks KOQ...I was about to do the same thing.



So over 50% of his starts were vs. #1 and #2 pitchers. (thru 19 games)



To me, that proves my point more than disproves it.



Take a random #3 starter and tell me how many times through 19 games that he faces a #1 or #2. If it is more than 50%...I will eat my words...otherwise my main point is more true than not.



I'd guess post All-Star break looks closer to the beginning of the season than the later. I can understand that the further away from both spots...the likelihood of #1's facing each other decreases substantially...but it should still remain more likely than the chances a #3 faces a #1. (without looking up the entire season for every SP and doing an average.)





~Lance



[ January 14, 2009, 01:00 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

[DOUGHBOYS]

Snell and Hendrickson will want to read this thread. It'll be the only place that refers to them as aces.

[King of Queens]

Point of clarification: those #'s are based on the start of the season. While Ian Snell (PIT) and Mark Hendrickson (FLA) started on Opening Day, they were certainly NOT the aces of their pitching staffs.



Returns from injury also screw up rotations. Someone like John Lackey missed a few weeks at the beginning of the season, and just happened to have his turn come up when he faced Santana. I'd chalk that up to coincidence rather than the Angels intentionally lining up their ace (if he even was their ace) to face the Mets' best pitcher.



Isn't there also a theory that pitchers perform BETTER than normal when "facing" a great pitcher? Knowing that their team will only score a couple of runs, the pitcher brings his A+ game and throws his absolute hardest.



I don't know, Lance. Seems like it shouldn't matter too much...

[sportsbettingman]

I just see a small advantage of being the #3 vs. #1 starter in who you face throughout the season. It doesn't have to be a mind boggling advantage...just an advantage. To make Joba's stats WORSE due to being moved from ace to #3 doesn't register in my brain.



One less start?



Why does a team start the season, start the post All-Star break (if they didn't have a SP in the game), and start the playoffs with their Ace???



A) To get the maximum amount of innings from their ace.



B) To increase their chances at beating the other teams ace.



~Lance



[ January 14, 2009, 01:16 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

[bjoak]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Snell and Hendrickson will want to read this thread. It'll be the only place that refers to them as aces. Funny and kind of a good point, actually. The best way to mine this data would be to take the starters the guy faced all year and then find their ERA compared to the average ERA's for starters. I think you'd probably end up with a small difference (maybe 0.15), but to Lance's point I find that some of the better values in pitchers come from guys that get a little boost here and a little boost there and things start to add up. People who dismiss everything as too small miss out on the guys that everything is breaking right for.



So I guess I've changed my mind a bit.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I just see a small advantage of being the #3 vs. #1 starter in who you face throughout the season. It doesn't have to be a mind boggling advantage...just an advantage. To make Joba's stats WORSE due to being moved from ace to #3 doesn't register in my brain.



One less start?



Why does a team start the season, start the post All-Star break (if they didn't have a SP in the game), and start the playoffs with their Ace???



A) To get the maximum amount of innings from their ace.



B) To increase their chances at beating the other teams ace.



~Lance You're trying to think of baseball as a logical world though, it isn't.



Even after the All-Star game. The Red sox for instance, start up on Thursday, the Yankees on Friday. With rotations as they are now and barring all-star performances, Joba would be matched up with Beckett. There are too many off days and rain days to put much credence in this. Not to mention dl and maternity leave, and deaths in the family, ailing grandma's, family in from out of town, you know, ballplayer excuses.

Joba is good enough to be drafted on his own merits, Lance, if you think he has an advantage as a POSSIBLE #5 starter, bid up.

[JohnZ]

The above is the off season noise you need to avoid if you want to have a chance.



[ January 14, 2009, 03:08 PM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I just see a small advantage of being the #3 vs. #1 starter in who you face throughout the season. It doesn't have to be a mind boggling advantage...just an advantage. To make Joba's stats WORSE due to being moved from ace to #3 doesn't register in my brain.



One less start?



Why does a team start the season, start the post All-Star break (if they didn't have a SP in the game), and start the playoffs with their Ace???



A) To get the maximum amount of innings from their ace.



B) To increase their chances at beating the other teams ace.



~Lance You're trying to think of baseball as a logical world though, it isn't.



Even after the All-Star game. The Red sox for instance, start up on Thursday, the Yankees on Friday. With rotations as they are now and barring all-star performances, Joba would be matched up with Beckett. There are too many off days and rain days to put much credence in this. Not to mention dl and maternity leave, and deaths in the family, ailing grandma's, family in from out of town, you know, ballplayer excuses.

Joba is good enough to be drafted on his own merits, Lance, if you think he has an advantage as a POSSIBLE #5 starter, bid up. [/QUOTE]OK, Dan...I see your point.



BUT...



If all weird rotations are equal...and the randomness spread out evenly across the season as your post indicates...and your ace starts the season vs. another ace (maybe even 3 weeks in a row)...wouldn't that equal randomness mean that no other starter on his team would face MORE ace pitchers...since they DIDN'T start the season vs. an ace, and the randomness should even out?



Question.



Based only on the fact Joba went from ace to #3...would you downgrade his stats? (or did Shandler simply forget that Job's young arm wouldn't likely log the innings he first projected, and corrected his error)



Note...



This... "if it started with the disadvantage of having to face an ace to start the season, it will continue to have the disadvantage"...kinda opposite of the agrument for the advantages of picking first in a snake draft.



~Lance



[ January 14, 2009, 03:52 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by JohnZ:

The above is the off season noise you need to avoid if you want to have a chance. I guess you prefer the peaceful sound of crickets chirping.



C'mon John...join the fun! It's a long road to March!



~Lance

[bjoak]

Originally posted by JohnZ:

The above is the off season noise you need to avoid if you want to have a chance. Well, I wouldn't use this unless I could quantify the opposing ERA difference between the different #'s in the rotation, but projecting wins depends completely on the run differential of your pitcher and his team vs. the other team so my point is that if you quantify it accurately and don't overaccount for it, it can only help.



Unless, of course, you are spending an enormous amount of valuable time on it that can be used for better things, which is why I probably won't do it.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Agreed.

And ,



We won't even go into strength of said rotations. If you're facing Pittsburgh's #2 starter (pick a Pirate starter, any Pirate starter in a home and home series that perfectly aligned with the stars and it was 2 vs.2. It would be a lot different than going up against Arizona and their #2, which would be Haren.

This argument is akin to posts in April about how my guy always gets erased on force outs and the batter that causes that ends up scoring and how that is just so unfair.

Its baseball. Baseball confounds the numbers guys like Bjoak and Zola as well as makes semi-drunken stupor guys like Lance wonder.

Its a beautiful thing.

[bjoak]

Hey, I'm just glad I didn't get the drunken stupor label.

[ToddZ]

I've done this study in the past using ERA and there was no correlation between ERA of opponent and spot in the rotation. It has admittedly been 3 or 4 years since I have done it - I stopped figuring there was no longer a need to continually show no effect.



Each year, there are a couple of teams that have 5 starting pitchers work at least 25 games apiece, so I focused on these teams. I recall one year it was the White Sox, another it was Seattle.



It isn't just that 1 vs. 1, 2 vs. 2 gets skewed, but also the "1" doesn't always have a better record than the "3", etc.



I use a modified PYTHAG to estimate starting pitcher's wins, calculating how many ER they give up per game, then add in how many the team's bullpen gives up, subjectively basing that on the quality of the closer and top set up men, figuring the better pitchers will have the better relievers following them, so using the team's bullpen without some sort of adjustment hurts the better pitchers and helps the poorer ones.

[sportsbettingman]

I know the NFL schdule factors heavily into forecasting football...would you say the same for baseball?



I've never broken down a MLB schedule to forecast players before...is it worth the effort?



~Lance



[ January 14, 2009, 05:10 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by bjoak:

Hey, I'm just glad I didn't get the drunken stupor label. Semi, you forgot semi.

Lance doesen't look at it as a label, more as an institution.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I know the NFL schdule factors heavily into forecasting football...would you say the same for baseball?



I've never broken down a MLB schedule to forecast players before...is it worth the effort?



~Lance Holy cow, Lance!



Are you already tired of Avg, rbi r, hr, and sb's?