The Economy, Baseball, and Stuff

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I know the NFL schdule factors heavily into forecasting football...would you say the same for baseball?



I've never broken down a MLB schedule to forecast players before...is it worth the effort?



~Lance Holy cow, Lance!



Naaa



I just happen to have a bunch of free time (slow work)...and wanted to put it to good use if it was worth the effort.



I'm making an effort to be semi-drunk on "weekends" only/mostly this year!



I'm not liking it...but I guess I'll get used to it.



~Lance

Are you already tired of Avg, rbi r, hr, and sb's? [/QUOTE]

[DOUGHBOYS]

One thing against you in baseball is the lateness of the schedule. While the NFL proudly unveils theirs on ESPN and the NFL Network.

Baseball goes about it differently and lets each team release theirs when all the flaws are worked out on the local level.

I think you're turning into a dead end here.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I stand corrected, the schedules are out.

[ToddZ]

The schedules were actually out while last season was still in progress.



I think there is some merit to looking at divisional trends as you do play 19 or so games against each divisional opponent - though I think there is no reason to know exactly when these games are.



However, if you use a 3-year statistical base for your forecast, and the player has been with the same team for 3 years, the divisional bias is already incorporated.

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by ToddZ:

I've done this study in the past using ERA and there was no correlation between ERA of opponent and spot in the rotation. It has admittedly been 3 or 4 years since I have done it - I stopped figuring there was no longer a need to continually show no effect.I love the numbers, I really do. And I have huge respect for all the number crunchers out there and the effort they put in. I've done my share also.



But isn't it easier to just look at the matchups each week and make better decisons from that info than trying to disect something that may or may not be there? (I know that there's a ton of fun in the disecting)



At what point does all the number crunching get in the way of winning?



Is that why scouts tend to not like the crunchers? Because they think the human side has more merit?



Ron started shouting at me the last time I tried to talk to him about the human side (see Soriano .237 prediction)

[bjoak]

But isn't it easier to just look at the matchups each week and make better decisons from that info than trying to disect something that may or may not be there? (I know that there's a ton of fun in the disecting)

Are you going to draft CC and then sit him against the Bosox and Rays because Jeff Suppan is facing the Pirates that week? Except on rare occasions, I am only sitting the fringy pitchers.



Props to Todd for putting the debate to rest and saving me a pile of work and/or research I'd have probably done at some point. Also, good note on bullpen usage. I have to admit I've never accounted for that.

[bjoak]

BTW, it is good to see the town curmudgeon back Z.

[ToddZ]

I love the numbers, I really do. And I have huge respect for all the number crunchers out there and the effort they put in. I've done my share also.



But isn't it easier to just look at the matchups each week and make better decisons from that info than trying to disect something that may or may not be there? (I know that there's a ton of fun in the disecting)



At what point does all the number crunching get in the way of winning?



Is that why scouts tend to not like the crunchers? Because they think the human side has more merit?



Ron started shouting at me the last time I tried to talk to him about the human side (see Soriano .237 prediction) Big difference between number crunching for the draft and in-season.



I think people pay too much attention to the micro-matchups in season. Joe Blow is 1 for 9 against Joe Blow Jr, I'm going to bench him.