RED ALERT: FX Dislocation_In_Process

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 10:57 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Slice the time period in different ways, you'll get different answers. In 1980, gold peaked at $600+, the S&P 500 then was trading around 100. Inflation-adjusted, you've lost a lot of money in gold since 1980, and on top of that given up huge equity returns even with the huge selloff we've just had in stocks and the runup in gold. duke - since the money supply has grown quite a bit in the last few years, say 5 or 10, i think a good exercise is to see what's happened to the S&P vs gold. i know you don't want to post the 5 year and ten year comparisons of S&P vs Gold.

all the monopoly money is eating away at us in the form of inflation.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:00 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

No they would not be able to pay, a typical bank is leveraged at 6x. That does not make them a ponzi scheme. maybe i misheard something, but weren't most banks well over 6x leverage? i seem to remember it being reported that some were 30x-50x.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:48 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

No they would not be able to pay, a typical bank is leveraged at 6x. That does not make them a ponzi scheme. maybe i misheard something, but weren't most banks well over 6x leverage? i seem to remember it being reported that some were 30x-50x. [/QUOTE]Investment banks and institutions that used off-balance sheet derivatives like credit default swaps, not your run of the mill commercial bank. That was a major problem here, the govt was clueless as to the leverage that was being created off-balance sheet. Still, this is not a ponzi. Irresponsible? yes. Ponzi? no.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:53 am

geez- why don't you guys google ponzi scheme and read- like kj suggests.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:00 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

geez- why don't you guys google ponzi scheme and read- like kj suggests. If GG is part owner of 8 other NFBC teams, is it a ponzi scheme?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:03 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Slice the time period in different ways, you'll get different answers. In 1980, gold peaked at $600+, the S&P 500 then was trading around 100. Inflation-adjusted, you've lost a lot of money in gold since 1980, and on top of that given up huge equity returns even with the huge selloff we've just had in stocks and the runup in gold. duke - since the money supply has grown quite a bit in the last few years, say 5 or 10, i think a good exercise is to see what's happened to the S&P vs gold. i know you don't want to post the 5 year and ten year comparisons of S&P vs Gold.

all the monopoly money is eating away at us in the form of inflation. [/QUOTE]What inflation, are you kidding me? Gold is up on speculation of inflation. There is no inflation.

All asset classes go thru positive and negative cycles (remember housing?), and you are welcome to speculate or hedge with them. Pick the right time frame and you can make any look good or bad. "Housing never goes down" and "look how much housing has outperformed the stock market over the last 5-10 years" ... how many times did you hear these quotes prior to 2007. Now you're hearing it about gold. Ok. Roll the dice.

Over the long-term, odds are against a non-earning asset keeping up with "earning" assets, i.e., companies that generate cash flow.

[ February 17, 2009, 06:05 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:14 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

geez- why don't you guys google ponzi scheme and read- like kj suggests. They found a new phrase and they love it!

Bank loan = ponzi

Capitalism = ponzi

Your employer = ponzi

Get married = ponzi

Fantasy baseball = ponzi

Everything's a ponzi scheme.

Oh, except gold. A shiny, virtually useless metal than no one needs or uses. But you can pay any price for gold, gold never goes down, so it could not be a ponzi! mmmmm, look how shiny, must ... have .... at any price .......

HH - your mailbox full.

[ February 17, 2009, 06:18 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

There is no inflation.

it's been a while since i studied economics but inflation is:

1. increases in the money supply

2. purchasing power decreasing

unless i missed the boat, both of those things have been happening for some time now.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:20 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

geez- why don't you guys google ponzi scheme and read- like kj suggests. yes, we all know banks couldn't be ponzi schemes. they only conduct "lawful" transactions. what is deemed "lawful" is open for debate.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:21 pm

Originally posted by JohnZ:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

geez- why don't you guys google ponzi scheme and read- like kj suggests. If GG is part owner of 8 other NFBC teams, is it a ponzi scheme? [/QUOTE]bastard!

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:23 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

geez- why don't you guys google ponzi scheme and read- like kj suggests. They found a new phrase and they love it!

Bank loan = ponzi

Capitalism = ponzi

Your employer = ponzi

Get married = ponzi

Fantasy baseball = ponzi

Everything's a ponzi scheme.

Oh, except gold. A shiny, virtually useless metal than no one needs or uses. But you can pay any price for gold, gold never goes down, so it could not be a ponzi! mmmmm, look how shiny, must ... have .... at any price .......

[/QUOTE]

personally, i think gold is crap and has no tangible value. just like federal reserve notes. although, i guess people could burn federal reserve notes to keep warm!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:29 pm

Here's a quick primer on the Fed and the Depression.

federal reserve

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:31 pm

There's supposed to be $3.00 worth of gold flake in each bottle of Goldschlager.

When times get really bad, you can mine my excrement's!

(went WAY too far for a smile!)

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:33 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Here's a quick primer on the Fed and the Depression.

federal reserve ...and continues here with gold...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7pnjzCu ... re=related

~Lance

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:37 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

There is no inflation.

it's been a while since i studied economics but inflation is:

1. increases in the money supply

2. purchasing power decreasing

unless i missed the boat, both of those things have been happening for some time now. [/QUOTE]An increase in the money supply may or may not lead to inflation, but it is in no way a definition of inflation. A growing economy needs to increase its money supply, without it you get deflation (too little money chasing too many goods and services).

Likewise, a decrease in purchasing power also is not inflation. If you lose your job, you lose purchasing power, that isn't inflation.

Inflation is a general increase in the cost of goods and services, and is generally present when there is "too much money chasing too few goods and services". Not the case today, possibly the case in the future.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:43 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

An increase in the money supply may or may not lead to inflation, but it is in no way a definition of inflation. A growing economy needs to increase its money supply, without it you get deflation (too little money chasing too many goods and services).

Likewise, a decrease in purchasing power also is not inflation. If you lose your job, you lose purchasing power, that isn't inflation.

Inflation is a general increase in the cost of goods and services, and is generally present when there is "too much money chasing too few goods and services". Not the case today, possibly the case in the future. what??? i'm gonna have to break out my old econ books on this one. also, are u saying the purchasing power of the dollar has been increasing?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:44 pm

It's not hard to see how misinformation gets spread around with guys like this on TV.

3 frickin' idiots misrepesenting the Fed to the world - wow!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:46 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

An increase in the money supply may or may not lead to inflation, but it is in no way a definition of inflation. A growing economy needs to increase its money supply, without it you get deflation (too little money chasing too many goods and services).

Likewise, a decrease in purchasing power also is not inflation. If you lose your job, you lose purchasing power, that isn't inflation.

Inflation is a general increase in the cost of goods and services, and is generally present when there is "too much money chasing too few goods and services". Not the case today, possibly the case in the future. what??? i'm gonna have to break out my old econ books on this one. also, are u saying the purchasing power of the dollar has been increasing? [/QUOTE]In the last few months the purchasing power of your dollar has increased. Go to a retail store and see how far your dollar goes compared to this time last year.

[ February 17, 2009, 06:48 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:55 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

In the last few months the purchasing power of your dollar has increased. Go to a retail store and see how far your dollar goes compared to this time last year. yes, over the course of the last few months you'd be correct.

i'm still wondering when college tuitions are going to go down. also wondering when taxes (Federal, State, and Local) are going to go down.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:56 pm

The dollar seems to have taken a dump when at the grocery store.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:57 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The dollar seems to have taken a dump when at the grocery store. food shortages soon lance!!!! stock up now!!!!

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:04 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The dollar seems to have taken a dump when at the grocery store. My fertilizer stocks are doing quite well!

Grocery stores historically do well in this environment. Consumers substitute eating out for eating at home. Netflix also is posting bangup numbers, same theory.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:10 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The dollar seems to have taken a dump when at the grocery store. My fertilizer stocks are doing quite well!

Grocery stores historically do well in this environment. Consumers substitute eating out for eating at home. Netflix also is posting bangup numbers, same theory. [/QUOTE]How the hell did Blockbuster SO miss the boat (niche) that Netflix exploited?

Just seemed too easy to predict a demand for that.

Now Blockbuster looks to be in big trouble.

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:12 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The dollar seems to have taken a dump when at the grocery store. food shortages soon lance!!!! stock up now!!!! [/QUOTE]I'm converting the entire backyard from grass to vegetable garden...I have just enough room in my basement for you and your family, Gekko!

~Lance

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:17 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The dollar seems to have taken a dump when at the grocery store. My fertilizer stocks are doing quite well!

Grocery stores historically do well in this environment. Consumers substitute eating out for eating at home. Netflix also is posting bangup numbers, same theory. [/QUOTE]How the hell did Blockbuster SO miss the boat (niche) that Netflix exploited?

Just seemed too easy to predict a demand for that.

Now Blockbuster looks to be in big trouble.

~Lance [/QUOTE]Netflix = extremely well-run

Blockbuster = not at all well-run

Market share going in one direction only.