RED ALERT: FX Dislocation_In_Process

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:10 pm

Double thanks Kevin!

I absolutely love Friedman.

I told you I spent the first 37 years of my life in a secluded sports world...now just opening my eyes to everything else...amazing.

I feel like a dried up sponge being hit by the the passing waves of a person spraying a spray bottle set to mist, just a bit out of reach...so just a tiny bit hits me with each spray...but it is hitting me.

~Lance

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:18 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The dollar seems to have taken a dump when at the grocery store. My fertilizer stocks are doing quite well!

[/QUOTE]i'm looking for an entry point for intrepid. i'm hoping for under $20.

i bought a decent share in FCston. gonna just put that puppy away for 18-24 months and see what happens.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:19 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The dollar seems to have taken a dump when at the grocery store. food shortages soon lance!!!! stock up now!!!! [/QUOTE]I'm converting the entire backyard from grass to vegetable garden...I have just enough room in my basement for you and your family, Gekko!

~Lance [/QUOTE]ya boy!!!!

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:14 pm

gg- sometimes you can be very smart- but at times i wonder. look at it this way. just assume that you had been putting your $ in bonds for the last 8 years saving to buy a house. you finally have saved $100,000 and now you want to but a house. your wife and you both work and you think you were going to put 20% down. even if you know that the risk of losing your job has increased- the house you can now buy was an 800 or 700k house - now it is 500 and your mortgage rate is now .5 to .75 lower than a year ago. that is an amount of savings that it would take 20 years of inflation ( at least) to make up the diff. ya, you could lose your job. put 75 down and save 25. yes twice to 3 times as many people will lose their jobs than in 2006- but people were losing jobs then too. If you have $ and a job- or $ and are retired- now is a great time to buy big ticket items- houses, cars, appliances. it takes a lot of increases in the price of a loaf of bread to put you behind in the " inflation" game if you save 200k on a house, 10k on a car or 20k on a new kitchen. anyone can say but low- sell high. stocks are one thing- but a car, a house- you get to enjoy- and keep. in fact- if you really believe all these $ the fed is throwing out there are gonna lead to inflation- you should be buying 3 house 6 oil stocks etc. etc.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:43 pm

Love the debates in the 2nd halves of these videos.

Houses are going to drop all of 2009...why buy now when you can buy in December at another 15%+ discount?

~Lance

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 4:10 pm

you live in calif- i live in chicago. assets do not drop at the same rates at the same time all over the country. if you have the $ and need/ want a house- you should at least be looking. to read these boards- people make 500k decisions in about 5 minutes. they look at milton for 6 hours and are an economist. everyone does not believe houses will drop for all of 2009 and if they do they could drop for all of 2010 and if they do they could drop for all of 2011. i may be wrong but the herd was wrong about the stockmarket in 2008 and wrong about the housing market in 2005 and 2006- when you had to buy before someone else did. also, with all this inflation gecko is talking about- what if interest rates spike? if they behaved by supply and demand and inflation and expectations- they would be at 2% now. if they go up 1/2 point on a 400,000 k 30 year mortgage and that house goes down 5% more- are you ahead?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 5:48 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

you live in calif- i live in chicago. assets do not drop at the same rates at the same time all over the country. if you have the $ and need/ want a house- you should at least be looking. to read these boards- people make 500k decisions in about 5 minutes. they look at milton for 6 hours and are an economist. everyone does not believe houses will drop for all of 2009 and if they do they could drop for all of 2010 and if they do they could drop for all of 2011. i may be wrong but the herd was wrong about the stockmarket in 2008 and wrong about the housing market in 2005 and 2006- when you had to buy before someone else did. also, with all this inflation gecko is talking about- what if interest rates spike? if they behaved by supply and demand and inflation and expectations- they would be at 2% now. if they go up 1/2 point on a 400,000 k 30 year mortgage and that house goes down 5% more- are you ahead? You talk the talk.

You think this DEPRESSION is something you can use the usual years to calculate when it will rebound?

I have less than one year in this field and I already know we are in trouble with a capital T.

Keep offending with the Milton talk.

I'll just keep learning.

I'll put my money where my mouth is.

I'll bet that home values in California will be lower in December of 2009 than they are now.

Looking over your recent posts headhunter...I agree with way more than I don't. I just don't like to be lumped into a group I feel I'm not a part of.

~Lance

[ February 18, 2009, 12:17 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 5:56 pm

Lance, all you have to do is find one great deal, and you don't have to worry about when market prices bottom.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:04 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Lance, all you have to do is find one great deal, and you don't have to worry about when market prices bottom. Anyone who buys a home to flip now is an idiot.

Long term...fine.

The home prices where I live are still a joke.

They are getting better, but they are still overvalued by close to 20% or more.

No guarantee they go that low...but when you're talking another $80,000.00 to $120,000.00 it might be worth the wait.

~Lance

[ February 18, 2009, 12:19 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:12 pm

This is straight from NPR...

Morning Edition, February 18, 2009 · Around the world, unemployment is rising and incomes are falling, and it isn't clear how long the recession will last or how deep it will get. The global economic situation is so serious that the head of U.S. intelligence agencies now says it has surpassed terrorism as the top threat to national security.

Gekko and others have been stating that this **** is coming to a head, and that a police state isn't some joke.

I hope this is the last post I cut and paste to support our view.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... =100781975

I sure hope the US is still a nation of sleeping giants...but damn if I see it.

This kind of very clear, yet subtle-speak scares me...

"Some analysts even say the world is going through a period of deglobalization after years of increasing economic integration. That's a trend that could aggravate international tensions."

All of these blatant signs...yet most fools think it's all on the up and up. Unreal. :rolleyes:

~Lance

[ February 18, 2009, 01:24 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:11 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

This is straight from NPR...

Morning Edition, February 18, 2009 · Around the world, unemployment is rising and incomes are falling, and it isn't clear how long the recession will last or how deep it will get. The global economic situation is so serious that the head of U.S. intelligence agencies now says it has surpassed terrorism as the top threat to national security.

Gekko and others have been stating that this **** is coming to a head, and that a police state isn't some joke.

I hope this is the last post I cut and paste to support our view.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... =100781975

I sure hope the US is still a nation of sleeping giants...but damn if I see it.

This kind of very clear, yet subtle-speak scares me...

"Some analysts even say the world is going through a period of deglobalization after years of increasing economic integration. That's a trend that could aggravate international tensions."

All of these blatant signs...yet most fools think it's all on the up and up. Unreal. :rolleyes:

~Lance There are risks and there are probable outcomes.

As a nation, we have faced numerous risks in the past, worse in my opinion, and survived with our way of life intact. I'm not blind to the risks, yet my expectation remains that which is probable. And given the circumstances, I think we will pull thru this crises, more aware, and better for it in the long-term.

The 1930's had the Great Depression, the '40s had WWII, the '60-70s had Vietnam, the Cold War, the energy crisis and the fear of nuclear war, the 00's have had terrorism and the global credit crisis. Many think this predicament could be the undoing of our society - but is it really worse than the Great Depression during which unemployment reached 25%? Or WWII which threatened the sovereignty of much of the Western world? Or the nuclear Cold War during which many people feared entire US cities would be wiped off the map and we would end up under communist rule?

Is it possible that we have become so comfortable in our way of life that even outside chances of disruptions to it have turned us into doomsday drama queens? Buck up, things could be a little tougher for awhile. Tee-ball time is over. Deal with it and move forward.

[ February 18, 2009, 02:23 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:07 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

This is straight from NPR...

Morning Edition, February 18, 2009 · Around the world, unemployment is rising and incomes are falling, and it isn't clear how long the recession will last or how deep it will get. The global economic situation is so serious that the head of U.S. intelligence agencies now says it has surpassed terrorism as the top threat to national security.

Gekko and others have been stating that this **** is coming to a head, and that a police state isn't some joke.

I hope this is the last post I cut and paste to support our view.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... =100781975

I sure hope the US is still a nation of sleeping giants...but damn if I see it.

This kind of very clear, yet subtle-speak scares me...

"Some analysts even say the world is going through a period of deglobalization after years of increasing economic integration. That's a trend that could aggravate international tensions."

All of these blatant signs...yet most fools think it's all on the up and up. Unreal. :rolleyes:

~Lance There are risks and there are probable outcomes.

As a nation, we have faced numerous risks in the past, worse in my opinion, and survived with our way of life intact. I'm not blind to the risks, yet my expectation remains that which is probable. And given the circumstances, I think we will pull thru this crises, more aware, and better for it in the long-term.

The 1930's had the Great Depression, the '40s had WWII, the '60-70s had Vietnam, the Cold War, the energy crisis and the fear of nuclear war, the 00's have had terrorism and the global credit crisis. Many think this predicament could be the undoing of our society - but is it really worse than the Great Depression during which unemployment reached 25%? Or WWII which threatened the sovereignty of much of the Western world? Or the nuclear Cold War during which many people feared entire US cities would be wiped off the map and we would end up under communist rule?

Is it possible that we have become so comfortable in our way of life that even outside chances of disruptions to it have turned us into doomsday drama queens? Buck up, things could be a little tougher for awhile. Tee-ball time is over. Deal with it and move forward. [/QUOTE]I think we are living in a different time now. To bring up past problems and think we will make it through now, because we did then is a little shortsighted. The world is spinning out of control. We live in little boxes in this country and think we currently lack, yet we are so rich compared to others around the globe. The lack of food and resources to purchase food in other countries is quite alarming. This is what will cause the biggest problems in most countries......lack of employment/resources equaling lack of food causing civil unrest. One doesn't need youtube to see this.

I know this thread is geared more towards the monetary part of economics, but the problem is bigger than your thoughts on the Federal Reserve. KJ, you and others have pointed to this country rising up after The Great Depression. Do you realize the difference in the amount of people living in the 30's compared to know? It's basically 2 billion then, to 6 billion now. The ever increasing amount of people in this world is only going to lead to more problems and make it harder to prosper again. Also, remember what proceeded the Great Depression??? We are heading towards another global war as we speak. I know I think "doom and gloom" but how can you not if you truly look at the conditions in the world today. The problem is an ever growing presence of evil. It's always been there, but again, with more people, more evil. Makes me think of something Paul wrote

"This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come. For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, incontinent, fierce, despisers of those that are good, traitors, heady, highminded, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God; having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof: from such turn away.

2nd Timothy 3:1-5

The world has always denied God, but our country was founded by people who revered him. The country prospered due to His Hand being upon the land, but alas, it is no more. God will not stay where he isn't wanted. Eh.....I need to stop due to lack of time. I will say, in the believers heart, we feel the return of Christ is upon us. Of course, the world has been thinking this for over 2,000 years. But with the events of the world slowly matching prophecy, it really is closer than one thinks. One of the prophecies is the globalization of the world and a one world government. With all of the problems in the world today, something is going to occurr to cause the governments of the world to unite as one. This truly sets the scene for the Anti-Christ to emerge.

Gotta run, man, I wish could continue for the few who actually read what I post. For those who have read this far, don't ever allow anyone in your family to have the computer chips implanted into your hand AND remember, God loves you and Christ did die for you. Accept what he did into your heart and be able to live with confidence, knowing where you are heading, even though the world around you is falling apart.

Cotton1 · Post by **Cotton1** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:40 am

who do you think will be the first pitcher off the boards? will kaz matsui have ass problems again? c'mon guys, let's talk baseball!! i know different pages are for different topics, but i am in the financial serv field. i manage over 100 people, and i get punched in the neck in this environment all day long in my cozy little office with my fireplace and fine corinthian leather chairs. i come here to escape, and i read the posts(and very rarely post myself) off and on all day long and enjoy them immensely... this stuff is depressing and you can get it just about anywhere you go. again, who will be the first pitcher off the boards?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:16 am

Duke – is it POSSIBLE that because this crisis is so widespread (world-wide) and so complex that you are underestimating how bad it will be?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:05 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Duke – is it POSSIBLE that because this crisis is so widespread (world-wide) and so complex that you are underestimating how bad it will be? Didn't I just say the risk of it being worse is there? Yes it is possible, and depdendent upon events that have yet to occur. Possible vs probable. This isn't the first global crisis, and I'm not convinced its the worst.

My point again, is this. Have you considered that you may be viewing things era-centrically because its happening now, to you, rather than someone else in another time - do you think those who lived thru the Depression or WWII believe this set of circumstances will be worse?

[ February 18, 2009, 09:10 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:45 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

My point again, is this. Have you considered that you may be viewing things era-centrically because its happening now, to you, rather than someone else in another time - do you think those who lived thru the Depression or WWII believe this set of circumstances will be worse? of course that is how people are viewing it. back in the GD, we had an infant system. the "system" should have gotten more mature with 70+ years to improve on it.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 4:03 am

dear lance. post away. i started by saying you live in california- me in chicago. california is and has been a joke. yes we could tank and yes you could be right- but you did admit you just started reading milton and now seem to know a lot. good luck- i hope you and gecko are wrong- but you most certainly could be right. i do know one thing- if we don't try to fix things they will surely get worse and either it is completely over forever for this country- or the people that invest in the next couple of years will do very well when we come out of it- a or b. also- i say again- if you do not have a house and intend to live in it a long time- now seems to be a good time to look.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 4:11 am

Originally posted by moon over my hammy:

who do you think will be the first pitcher off the boards? will kaz matsui have ass problems again? c'mon guys, let's talk baseball!! i know different pages are for different topics, but i am in the financial serv field. i manage over 100 people, and i get punched in the neck in this environment all day long in my cozy little office with my fireplace and fine corinthian leather chairs. i come here to escape, and i read the posts(and very rarely post myself) off and on all day long and enjoy them immensely... this stuff is depressing and you can get it just about anywhere you go. again, who will be the first pitcher off the boards? Santana.

Yes, but the main problem will be haulin his ass from home to first so he can try to steal second.

BTW, love the nickname, but I am a corny kind of guy. Now quit lighting up those Cubans with $100 bailout proceeds and fix things.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 4:48 am

Four things...

1) A little knowledge IS dangerous...I agree.

2) I'm honestly worried over the push for a one world government. I do not feel it is a false idea.

3) I love the "Rusty...can I call you Rusty?" line.

4) I agree with you headhunters. If you have the money and credit...this is a decent time to buy...and California IS a joke.

~Lance

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 4:49 am

Could not resist. You folks talk about Milton Friedman. His biggest follower is none other than RON PAUL the most HONEST, TRUSTWORTHY, true PATRIOT exposing the corruption. But again he always seems to get marginalized and ridiculed. Why? Always ask why!! However people never do. Yet who else has projected everything correctly?

He is a TRUE AMERICAN HERO in my book, I sure wish he was the President. I took the stand and wrote his name in. The Thomas Jefferson of our time. I think many here would agree with that, hate him or love him the MAN has been 100% correct unlike the rest of the congressional critters.

We need 535 RON PAUL in COngress to truly change the direction of this country, simply one does not stand a chance he can only wake people up.

God Bless you RP ! Seems like the only one protecting the US CONSTITUTION!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzyYU_oC2V0

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 4:51 am

I am cheap. I can sugercoat it, say I'm frugal, but in the end...I am cheap. A lot of Americans have come down to my level, most by need, some are just scared.

The common American has power, knowingly and unknowingly. When we spend less, little businesses have a hard time making ends meet. Big business start laying off people. The common American dictates what happens in this country.Yet, politicians and big business are having a hard time following our lead.

One of my heroes is Calvin Coolidge. Coolidge was the 30th President. The last common man (some say Truman)in my mind to hold that office. Coolidge preferred staying in his office and working instead of attending social affairs or traveling abroad. He abhored the idea that he would cost taxpayers more money than necessary. We will probably never see a man elected to a high office again with the approach that Coolidge had. Coolidge never lost an election and never mentioned his opponants name when campaigning, again, we will never see this again out of an elected official.

When President Obama (that's still hard to say) flew to Denver yesterday to sign his sought after stimulus package, I can only shake my head. I have no idea how much it cost for Air Force One to fly places, but I know its more than a lot of Americans earn in a year.

We railed against auto execs for flying to Washington on private planes to beg Congress for money. Yet, here is our own President making a needless flight to sign a stimulus package. The irony is too much.We need an example to be set and it has to start with an elected official. Obama coming to Denver to sign that package was supposed to have some sort of symbolic meaning because that is where he won the Presidential nomination. Nonsense, that only means something to him and his party. Today he flies to Phoenix. He has already traveled more than Coolidge did in office, granted the airplane was new technology during Coolidge term, but the means were there for him to travel handsomely.

We need cheap guys like me and other Americans to infiltrate big business and especially, our Government, if only to remind these bigwigs that what they take for granted, would feed thousands of families.

Obama can start this by saying that he'll actually use that big house on Pennsylvania to work, not as a luxury retreat for his mother-in-law.

I wanted to end my post there but thought of something else that is only a little related but really pissses me off.

A disaster happens. Earthquake, fires raging, flood...you get the picture. Some politician always uses one of these disasters to fly over as a photo op to "survey the damage". Really? That photo op costs taxpayers real money and no one says a damn word. We may as well package the cost of the disaster with the resulting survey of damage. Frustrating, insulting, wasteful.

Just thought I'd add my take in this thread.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 5:18 am

As I sit here drinking my coffee, I reminisce on the evolution of this morning habit...

The heyday of the roaring early 2000's...every morning I'd stop in at Starbucks and order a triple venti mocha at a cost of like $4.35

When I stopped to think..."Geez, is that cup of coffee worth $90.00 a month?" Nope. I then hit up 7 eleven for a while, where I could get a refill of my big coffee mug for 55 cents.

When they raised the price to 65 cents I said to myself...I could make it at home and save the gas and time of stopping here. So I did.

When the price of the fairly small bottle of flavored creamer rivaled or exceeded that of a gallon of milk...I stopped supporting the company, and instead now mix my coffee with milk and sugar.

Maybe I'm getting cheap too.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 5:26 am

Originally posted by GoBabyGo:

Could not resist. You folks talk about Milton Friedman. His biggest follower is none other than RON PAUL the most HONEST, TRUSTWORTHY, true PATRIOT exposing the corruption. But again he always seems to get marginalized and ridiculed. Why? Always ask why!! However people never do. Yet who else has projected everything correctly?

He is a TRUE AMERICAN HERO in my book, I sure wish he was the President. I took the stand and wrote his name in. The Thomas Jefferson of our time. I think many here would agree with that, hate him or love him the MAN has been 100% correct unlike the rest of the congressional critters.

We need 535 RON PAUL in COngress to truly change the direction of this country, simply one does not stand a chance he can only wake people up.

God Bless you RP ! Seems like the only one protecting the US CONSTITUTION!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzyYU_oC2V0 I also wrote in Ron Paul for president.

Watching Milton Friedman speak reminded me of Ron Paul, or the other way around...but Milton is twice as smart.

Maybe in 2012. A Jesse Ventura and Ron Paul ticket.

~Lance

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 5:35 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by GoBabyGo:

[qb] Could not resist. You folks talk about Milton Friedman. His biggest follower is none other than RON PAUL the most HONEST, TRUSTWORTHY, true PATRIOT exposing the corruption. But again he always seems to get marginalized and ridiculed. Why? Always ask why!! However people never do. Yet who else has projected everything correctly?

He is a TRUE AMERICAN HERO in my book, I sure wish he was the President. I took the stand and wrote his name in. The Thomas Jefferson of our time. I think many here would agree with that, hate him or love him the MAN has been 100% correct unlike the rest of the congressional critters.

We need 535 RON PAUL in COngress to truly change the direction of this country, simply one does not stand a chance he can only wake people up.

God Bless you RP ! Seems like the only one protecting the US CONSTITUTION!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzyYU_oC2V0 I also wrote in Ron Paul for president.

Watching Milton Friedman speak reminded me of Ron Paul, or the other way around...but Milton is twice as smart.

Maybe in 2012. A Jesse Ventura and Ron Paul ticket.

Excellent to hear that news. Stick your guns, credit upon credit upon credit and bailout after bailout is NOT A FREE MARKET SYSTEM, so people who claim they are capitalists YET agree with these bailouts are NOT TRUE CAPITALISTS. They want their asses saved!

They are for the profits when they make money and socialism for when they lose it.

The only people worth their salt on CnBS are RICK SANTELLI (He is the man, suprised they have not canned him for speaking truth) and Mark haines seems to be coming around. The rest imho are tools for GE (remember they are for bailouts why? because they make Bombs and own GE CAPITAL)

Stick to your guns man you are doing a great job on this board!

[ February 18, 2009, 11:36 AM: Message edited by: GoBabyGo ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Feb 18, 2009 6:39 am

Run on Banks!

ST. JOHN'S, Antigua (Reuters) – Hundreds of people lined up to withdraw money from banks in Antigua and Caracas affiliated with Texas billionaire Allen Stanford, a day after the tycoon was charged with an $8 billion fraud.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has accused Stanford of operating a fraud centered on the sale of certificates of deposit from his Antiguan affiliate, Stanford International Bank Ltd (SIB).

The scheme has drawn comparisons with the alleged $50 billion fraud by Wall Street veteran Bernard Madoff.

In the twin-island state of Antigua and Barbuda, where Stanford is the biggest private employer, Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer said the charges against him could have "catastrophic" consequences but urged the public not to panic.

Two police officers stood watch at the Bank of Antigua as at least 600 people stood in a line stretching around a street corner, despite assurances from regional monetary authorities that the bank had sufficient reserves.

"I'm worried and I'd like to get my money out," said Andrea Lamar, 28, who joined the line with a friend on a street popular with tourists in the state capital, St. John's.