Adam Dunn vs. Jack Cust

Jim Young · Post by **Jim Young** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 9:42 am

Time to raise a player debate. Who would you rather have, Adam Dunn or Jack Cust? Most, upon first thought, would definitely say Adam Dunn. The guy has put up 4 seasons in a row of 40 HR and 100 + RBI. That's pretty impressive. Dunn, however, will cost you a 5th round pick. On the other hand, Jack Cust is going after round 20 in most drafts. Look at these two guys numbers from last year...

Dunn - .236 AVG, 79 R, 40 HR, 100 RBI, 2 SB

Cust - .231 AVG, 77 R, 33 HR, 77 RBI, 0 SB

Now, I realize that both these guys hurt your average, but I just don't understand why people are so high on Dunn. I'd rather wait 15 plus rounds and get Jack Cust. Dunn is moving from about the 3rd best hitters park to the 13th best, and the lineup he will be batting in is weaker then what he had in Cincy. I think this translates to less HR, less RBI, and less R. Cust is hitting in the same ball park, but now has 2 solid bats in Orlando Caberrera and Jason Giambi, as well as a great bat in Matt Holiday added to his line-up. Therefore, I think it is safe to assume he will see his R and RBI go up. And, he may see his average improve as well, as now there is more to focus on in that Oakland line-up.

Anyway, just wanted to get some feedback on this and see what you guys think. I am sure some of you wouldn't draft either of these guys, but to those who drafted or considered drafting Dunn, I say wait for Jack Cust!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 10:07 am

Thats great for one year comparisons.

In Dunn you're paying for the consistency, even though, like Cust, he is a one dimensional player.

Dunn has hit 40 hr's four years in a row, Cust has hit 40 home runs, uh, no years in a row.

Dunn is guaranteed playing time while Cust will still be sat on occasional days and get a pinch hitting spot. These are two hitters where ballpark effect has little effect, when they hit a home run it usually goes out of any park.

Your argument could be the same for Carlos Lee and Ludwick. Lee goes in the second, Ludwick the 7th. Lee has the history, while Ludwick has the one year.

Or even Cliff Lee and Johan Santana.

Missouri/Missouri effect gives the consistent players an edge.

[ March 31, 2009, 04:18 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 10:11 am

Some good points, however, Dunn's ADP is in the 6th and I've frequently seen him available in the 8th, so his value is lower than it's ever been before. The ballpark change shouldn't effect him. If you check his stats from last year he was just a smidge better on the road than he was at home. Last year's batting avg. was his downside, he could hit .265 for you. He's a good bet to have about 10 more HR's than Cust, and you know he's going to play, and there's a decent chance he sees enough time at 1B to qualify there since Iron Man Nick Johnson is manning 1B. Cust also has some downside to him in losing AB's, not saying it's going to happen, but it would no surprise if he only gets 400 AB's due to his bad OF defense, other candidates to DH(Giambi to give him a breather), and pinch running Rajai Davis for him after the 5th/6th inning.

Still, I agree there's probably not a 12 round difference between the two players.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 10:13 am

Dunn will play every game, Cust likely will not.

Dunn won't lose his job, Cust could.

Dunn strikes out far less than Cust (69% vs 59% contact rate), thus he at least has a chance for a respectable BA (upside to 260-270).

Dunn hits the ball far enough, park shouldn't matter much. Over the past two seasons he has hit exactly 40 HRs at home and on the road.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 10:27 am

dunn could go 100/100 cust will not. dunn could steal 5 bases and cust will not. and on and on. each hitter on team a hits 2 more homers, 4 more rbis and runs and .5 sb's. pretty soon you are looking at the diff between 1st and 10th. not the same player.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 10:38 am

why not just draft both?

Bullgod · Post by **Bullgod** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 1:22 pm

Don't think Cust is worth the HR & RBI's he gives you because he is not a player you play every week. You have to pick and choose when he gets his AB's. Too many lefties scheduled against the A's and he sits. But wait that's the week he hits 2-3 HR's off the few righties he plays against. I lived through him last year, you can have him in any round. Dunn? 100-40-100 every damn year!

RedRum · Post by **RedRum** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:18 pm

Whos Jack Cust ?

Lost Sailor · Post by **Lost Sailor** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:17 pm

Originally posted by Liquidhippo:

Some good points, however, Dunn's ADP is in the 6th and I've frequently seen him available in the 8th, so his value is lower than it's ever been before. The ballpark change shouldn't effect him. If you check his stats from last year he was just a smidge better on the road than he was at home. Last year's batting avg. was his downside, he could hit .265 for you. He's a good bet to have about 10 more HR's than Cust, and you know he's going to play, and there's a decent chance he sees enough time at 1B to qualify there since Iron Man Nick Johnson is manning 1B.What Liquid Hippo said. My exact sentiments.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 5:07 pm

"It's simple really...we must kill the Batman!"

Are we, or are we not comparing coupled draft picks?

Let's take the average for Dunn and the average for Cust...couple them with a player that goes close to the other and I agree...Cust wins.

Cust is also fairly young to the MLB...so his average has yet to be set in stone like Dunn.

Dunn has 8 years of proof he sucks at batting average...Cust still has wiggle room there. (2 years) Many folks think Chris Young and Weeks can figure out MLB pitching...maybe Cust can too!

~Lance

[ March 31, 2009, 11:10 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:54 pm

Hey Cust is a better real player than fantasy because he walk's so much.Last year Cust hada 376 obp and in 2007 obp was 400.Dunn also walk's a lot and has a obp of 383 the last two years.But when you can get one in the 6th round and onein round 22 i would take Cust.Hell Cust has never had over 500 at bats and this year he will get it.Last year both player's scored 79 run's each,Cust can score alot of run's because he's on base a lot.Ive done about 7 leagues and havnt gotten either one,just missed on Cust a couple times .If Cust doesnt work out you can cut him and you wont get hurt cutting a 22 round pick.Having a 6th round pick uderperform is a much bigger promblem.

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Wed Apr 01, 2009 2:15 pm

nice post Eddie

3intboy/BFD · Post by **3intboy/BFD** » Wed Apr 01, 2009 4:17 pm

I was at Jack Cust Baseball School last night...

So I'm going Cust. LOL

Interesting to compare each, Dunn gets more ABs this season IMO.

3'