LAD/SD, DET/TOR, make your pick

Jackstraw · Post by **Jackstraw** » Mon Apr 06, 2009 11:03 am

Odds for these two games:

LAD Kuroda +115

SD Peavy -125

O/U 6-

DET Verlander +135

TOR Halladay -150

O/U 7-

Game 1 matches the Dodgers #2 starter up against the Padres #1. Forget about Kuroda pitching a halfway decent season last year. This game is all about Peavy and the Padres. Peavy owns the Dodgers with a 13-1 career record over 22 starts. Add to this that Peavy has 2.32 ERA and 1.01 WHIP career marks against the Pride of the West. If this wasn't enough, there is one game of the season where you can count on Peavy, and that is his first game of the season. Since Peavy came up, he has only had one bad outing in his first start. That was in 2004 against the Dodgers in LA.

This game is a strange one because of the line. If the oddsmakers were using the stats to calculate this game, then Peavy would be a +200 favorite. You have to question the -125 price tag... Forget the questions! There are a lot of people betting on the Dodgers because they're the Dodgers. No one is paying attention to the fact that Peavy is a stud on a second rate team. Hang your hat on Peavy's arm and 13-1 career mark against LA.

Game 2 is just another bargain that any knowledgeable fan should buy into. Verlander vs. Halladay, and Halladay is only -150?! This is another ownership game. Halladay carries a career 11-2 mark against DET in 14 starts. The rest of the numbers are just pure magic - ERA = 1.93, WHIP = 0.91. Halladay didn't start against DET last year, but in DET's big 2007 season Halladay took them down in April with a strong 10 inning performance. Even the September 2007 matchup in Detroit was a strong performance for Halladay, though he left with a no-decision and Toronto eventually lost. Verlander's one lone start against TOR came at Comerica Park and was a miserable experience for him. On August 11, 2008 TOR piled 7 hits, 2 walks, and 6 ER in 4.2 innings on Verlander.

This game is another being dominated by a lot of hometown fans betting. The line is so lopsided because of the heavy Detroit betting influence. Jump on the Halladay bandwagon and watch that record get just a little bit better

graybros · Post by **graybros** » Mon Apr 06, 2009 6:01 pm

nice call on toronto but SD is just so miserable...they can't even support Peavy. if he gives up 2 runs it is going to be tough for him to get a win.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Apr 06, 2009 6:12 pm

Originally posted by graybros:

nice call on toronto but SD is just so miserable...they can't even support Peavy. if he gives up 2 runs it is going to be tough for him to get a win. The padres got nothin, Peavy will disappoint all year. He'll be hurt and/or unmotivated by July, probably sooner.

I wouldn't have thought twice about him before the 9th/10th round.

[ April 07, 2009, 12:19 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Da bears · Post by **Da bears** » Tue Apr 07, 2009 4:16 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by graybros:

nice call on toronto but SD is just so miserable...they can't even support Peavy. if he gives up 2 runs it is going to be tough for him to get a win. The padres got nothin, Peavy will disappoint all year. He'll be hurt and/or unmotivated by July, probably sooner.

I wouldn't have thought twice about him before the 9th/10th round. [/QUOTE]I agree 100% KJ as I never even considered drafting Peavy this year. The only chance for Peavy to have any value this year is for him to get traded to a contender sometime during the season.

[ April 07, 2009, 10:17 AM: Message edited by: Da bears ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Apr 07, 2009 4:41 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by graybros:

nice call on toronto but SD is just so miserable...they can't even support Peavy. if he gives up 2 runs it is going to be tough for him to get a win. The padres got nothin, Peavy will disappoint all year. He'll be hurt and/or unmotivated by July, probably sooner.

I wouldn't have thought twice about him before the 9th/10th round. [/QUOTE]More truth in this than Crazy's crazy prediction.

Even if he does pitch well, victories are going to be slow coming with that lineup. If the Padres staff throws well this year, Petco could set records for Ballpark Factors.

Dickie V · Post by **Dickie V** » Tue Apr 07, 2009 6:37 am

He'll be hurt and/or unmotivated by July, probably sooner.

Well you must not know Peavy very well. This guy is "old school" . Unlike a ton of today's players, Jake plays the game the way it was intended to be played.

I do agree he won't get many wins with the Pads this year.

My only hope is that he gets traded to the Angels.

At least he wears his cap straight.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Apr 07, 2009 6:39 am

1st rule of gambling: things change. 2nd rule- the bookies are always smarter than the gamblers. you will win about 60 times this year betting on the padres. better get 3-1

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Tue Apr 07, 2009 7:08 am

"Unlike a ton of today's players, Jake plays the game the way it was intended to be played."

6 IP a start? I thought old school guys would pitch 14-15 innings if they had to.

Dickie V · Post by **Dickie V** » Tue Apr 07, 2009 7:16 am

Not sure who you are talking about . Jake did go 7 not 6 yesterday.

All I am saying is that J Peavy plays the game hard. Sure his season could be cut short by an injury, but he won't just "go through the motions" come July.

Jackstraw · Post by **Jackstraw** » Tue Apr 07, 2009 8:28 am

All of the reasons above are why San Diego was not a good bet, though Peavy's numbers may have been. I was afraid to take a chance on Peavy in the draft this year after getting burned by him last year. His delivery is an injury just waiting to happen. He did go 7 innings so I expect that he is fairly healthy at the moment. Too bad that team just sucks.

Bettor's note: Don't bet SD to win again this year. It just ain't happenin'.