Week Four Planning – I have decided to go for (i.e. spend more than $100 for) Rick Porcello. I was beaten out in Week One and Two on a couple of pitchers, so I bid $131 for Porcello, which I think is too much. I was out-bid again ($137 took him). Most of my back up bids were all well under $50, and all were much less that what the pitchers actually went for ($137 Bush, $40 Looper, $21 Pineiro), all of whom I have valued at $0 to $10 at best . I got my third choice (Correia) for $11. I am so happy. Not. But I no longer have Park on my roster, which I think is a good thing.
Absent getting another decent pitcher, I am going to stick with three relievers (Lidge, Gonzalez, and Soriano). My starters will be Kazmir, Vazquez, Danks, and Wandy leaving two to come from Sonnanstine (vs BOS), Arroyo (@PIT), and Davis (vs HOU). I am crying in my beer as Davis looks like the no brainer here. Arroyo gave up four HR in his last two starts, but being in Pittsburgh, he looks like the lesser of two evils. Sonnanstine has had two decent starts and two very rough starts. Boston wiped there feet on the Yanks last weekend, so I am going to sit Sonnanstine vs the BoSox even though it is a home start.
I have Church, Headley, Duncan, Rasmus, Hafner, and Overbay to split between the bench and two OF/one UT spot. Headley is playing on the road including three in COL, so he is in. Church is getting full-time AB and gets three at home and three in Philly. I think he is the next best option. Hafner will probably only play five of six games, but Duncan has cooled off, Rasmus has shown no power, and Overbay on had 11 AB last week which means he was being benched in favor of Millar. Not good. I am going to stick with Hafner and his four HR and 0.293 BA.
Week Four Results – On Monday, I find out that Lidge has fluid on the knee. By Wednesday, Hafner and Encarnacion are on the DL. I am not having a good week and I am going to miss some Saves and AB’s until Friday. If they do not put Lidge on the DL, I am stuck. I end up putting Duncan in for Encarnacion (probably should have done it to begin the week anyway) and Overbay in for Hafner. While Overbay was a non-entity, Duncan played two games over the weekend with one HR and a 0.375 BA.
Church and BJ Upton really held my team back, BA wise (0.1176 and 0.1724 respectively) though Upton did walk five times and steal 3 bases. Church's full time AB are seriously in trouble. After Crawford’s embarrassing success against Penny/Delcarmen/Varitek, Upton may be moving down in the line-up which is not a good thing. BA good news is Phillips/Rollins/Beltre have begun to show life. Hit my counting stats for Runs and SB, but was way short in the power categories of HR and RBI. YTD I am too far back in BA for any sort of comfort. I am right on track to record 7,500 AB, which is my target, but I am at least a half a weeks worth of stats on R and RBI and more than a full week behind in HR. No one on my team has more than four dingers and one of those is Hafner. I am pretty much on track with steals. In short, I am more than one “hot” week from getting back on track.
My pitching keeps getting derailed by two things. Blow-up starts and lack of save opportunities from the Braves and Phillies. Each week, a different set of previously solid pitchers hurt my ERA/WHIP. This week, it was Danks (two horrendous starts) and Kazmir. Last week it was Arroyo and Sonnanstine. I benched Sonnanstine this week against the BoSox. Though he won his game and had a good ERA, the WHIP over 2 and only one K with four BB leaves me real worried. Something ain’t right as he has been VERY hittable. I really need Sonnanstine to be a solid, keep in there every week fifth starter for my team. He will not rack up K’s, but he should have more than his fair shares of Wins, good control/WHIP and a decent ERA. Not happening yet.
Doug Davis and Bronson Arroyo surprisingly had two great starts which meant my week was only bad, not disastrous. I pretty much know what to expect from Arroyo, but Davis is a wildcard for me. Besides health problems, which is enough to worry about, Davis has always been the guy to give you fits with control/bad WHIP. And he allowed three walks in this weeks start, but only two hits and zero earned runs to go with good (7 K) power. I know he is going to blow up on me, trouble will be predicting when. If he is reasonably healthy (possible he will give 180 IP this year) and his new-found control is for real (unlikely), he could be a steal. Could be.
For the year to date, I am actually ahead in K’s thanks to Javier Vazquez. This is a good sign as I have not exactly been racking up the starts this year (two weeks I have had three relievers and one week I had four). Also wins are just one or two off pace. Saves are behind by a week and a half. ERA is just a bit high, but my biggest concern is WHIP. Much too high and I want to bring it down before it becomes too high too late to move much. Davis doesn't fit into this risk profile, but until Sonnanstine comes untracked, I have little choice.
Week Five Planning – I am trolling with the rest of the bottom feeders in the standings (especially batting wise), so with MLB teams getting a minimum of 13 games in the next 14 days, I am hoping that I can play a little catch-up on my stats. Having some situational part-timers like Church, Duncan, John Baker and Overbay in the line up will be a drag, but with two offensive starters (Encarnacion and Hafner) on the DL, my only other option would be to start either Rasmus (getting fewer AB than either of the other three St. Louis OFer’s) or Lugo, who hasn’t shown much yet and is still in “spring training” for all intents and purposes.
With this weeks FAAB, there was more opportunity than previously for pitching (though there is just not much out there hitting wise). There are several pitchers who had the potential to help my team, lead by Brett Cecil and Brett Anderson, but also the likes of Jo Jo Reyes and Todd Wellemeyer. None of these guys will make you forget Koufax or Gibson, but I am looking for a six/seven type starter. I waffled all weekend going back and forth as to who should be the prime target, and after mature advisement (OK Mr. Dave, you get all the credit or blame
), I decided to go for Cecil. Playing his home games in Toronto may not be ideal, but he is a groundballer and the Bluejays are playing pretty hot. It is rare for me to give a rookie so much consideration, but I am going to have him in the line-up for his two starts this week (CLE at home and at OAK). I way overpaid ($151 next highest bid $19). I feel stupid, but this is as much getting out bid three of the previous four periods as my density. It wasn’t a Scherzer-esque faux pas, but come September, I may want my $100 back.I am so short Saves, I have no choice but to go with three relievers. Mike Gonzalez and Brad Lidge are obvious, but I have both handcuffs in Soriano and Madson. I will probably stick with Gonzalez as Bobby Cox is more of a hot-hand kind of manager.
Three of my other five starters will be two-start pitchers like Cecil (Vazquez, Kazmir and Davis). You know you have a problem when you are more concerned about your 1st drafted starter (Kazmir….Kent Stermon warned me it was a mistake) than your recent FA pick-up Davis. Wandy will be fourth and the fifth will be either Danks (at home vs TEX) or Arroyo (home vs MIL). Arroyo is no Danks when he is on, but MIL is no TEX. Tough call that will go down to the wire. I wish I could start Sonnanstine, but he is on the road vs the Yanks. That is as dangerous as it gets. Watch him throw a two hit shut out with 10 K’s!
So there it is. Once again I really liked my team coming out of the draft, but have gotten off to a poor start, especially with the sticks. I need BJ Upton to start playing up to potential (I remember feeling so lucky to get him in the third round), Phillips, Rollins and Beltre to continue to revive, St. Louis and NYM to settle on an OF, and my team as a whole to start turning walks into hits (preferably HR's).
On pitching, I need a fifth and sixth guy to be more reliable, and for Philly and Atlanta to generate some save opportunities. Nothing to it. Just think how lucky you will feel to have paid $1,300 to watch my meteoric climb to the top!
Anyway, hope this makes for some light reading. Feel free to comment.
[ May 04, 2009, 10:00 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
